Still on track for a wintry blast this weekend as a strong cold front tied to an intense low currently west of Tasmania sweeps up over the SE overnight and enters the Tasman early tomorrow morning.
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Winds shift W’ly as the initial frontal system sweeps across NSW tomorrow, with a stronger front and low moving up over NSW and then entering the Tasman with a vengeance into the weekend. We’ve still got some E’ly swell inbound from a retreating low which fired up as it approached the North Island.
These low centres are focussing areas of E’ly infeed along the trough line- perfectly aimed at east coast targets.
Surf-wise, whatever configuration of low pressure we end up getting, a broad E’ly infeed in the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman will generate plenty of E’ly swell into early-mid week.
We’ll see the E’ly flow continue to develop in the Northern Tasman and Coral Seas through this week, with swells from that E-NE quadrant building through this short term period under an onshore flow.
The dominant player is a massive high moving through the Bight and expected to drift over and eastwards of Tasmania tomorrow to occupy the Tasman for most of the week.
Back to looking dynamic next week. The crux of it is another very strong high moving at Tasmanian latitudes early next week. That will be the anvil for any hammer that forms next week.
The fetch responsible for the current E swell is well out in the South Pacific and migrating eastwards with diminishing swells from that source.
As noted on Fridays forecast another unseasonal low pressure system formed off the QLD coast over the weekend and has now drifted over to a position roughly equidistant between New Caledonia and the North Island.
The weekend won't be perfect but workable across the regions.