2022 Election

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blindboy started the topic in Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:46am

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Vic Local Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 11:34am

"It's Abbott who broke with tradition and offered nothing going into the 2013 election. No govt before or since has been so silent on policy."
Fun Fact Stu,
I spent a bit of time covering Abbott for mainstream commercial media. I was the least experienced journo going around. The reason why I got the job was because TA spent every single day doing anti-carbon tax BS, repeating the same stupid lines "axe the tax" every single day.
I asked the COS if they wanted any specific questions asked. They said, he won't answer them anyway, "just keep your camera rolling just in case something falls on his head. If that happened we'd run the story". Stations were even pooling resources for these events. They were sick of sending full teams in, so I'd often be the only bloke with a camera just in case somebody abused the fuckwit or he fell over.
sypkan: TA's only real legacy is perfecting the role of cynical opposition leader who gets elected after regurgitating 3 word slogans for years on end. shake n bake maate.

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Blowin Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 11:36am

I think he’s referring to hiding Biden in the basement so to maintain plausible deniability of his cognitive decline and The Albatross’ public appearance and policy minimalism over the past two years.

He isn’t called The Empty Chair for nothing.

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GuySmiley Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 11:42am

After the last election had Labor won I was expecting a DLP/ALP type split within the LNP between the few remaining moderates, the christian conservatives, the economic and social far righters and wherever the Nationals sit. Those factions and tensions still exist, perhaps more so, and are now openly bubbling along at a state level especially so in WA, Vic, NSW and QLD (Qld being a case study in its own category of weirdness). If there was an attempt to out Morrison before the election the infighting within the party would go nuclear and they would loose the election by a record margin. No Morrison will not be replaced to save some furniture but expect the biggest political shit fight within the LNP after the loss, its 3 years late meaning the blood loss will be greater.

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sypkan Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 12:01pm

most of your examples are from back when politics was normal stunet...

the hide n bide is a recent phenomenen...

one could argue hilary was onto it too, make yourself unavailable (untouchable) and just slur your opposition's character ...and their deplorables...

and the shorten example, yeh nah, they went public pretty late too, I'd argue if they floated the ideas earlier, they may have actually detected some of the errors of the ways in their pretty closed shop agenda...

not least, if they went earlier, they might have actually been able to explain them better, ...rather than resorting to some 1970s 80s contrived class conciousness name calling to shoehorn them through...

name calling that totally missed the mark, and tarred their very own voters...

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Supafreak Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 12:04pm

Here’s the beetroot with what appears to be a sober apology to smirko ( a half pissed one would have been entertaining ) but what I found mind boggling in this address to the media is he lists what really concerns Australians . He mentions covid but avoids aged care completely . He stated the other day that the government has done an outstanding job when it came to aged care .

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 12:59pm
batfink wrote:
andy-mac wrote:

pFitzgerald inquiry in Qld nailed quite a few of Joh's cabinet, although Joh himself seemed to dodge it ..
More chance of something happening under Labor than LNP. A think a permanent body set up would be best way forward.... Keep an eye on them all....

Re ‘Joh seeming to dodge it’. Yeah, he did, by the skin of his teeth. IIRC, two court cases, jury couldn’t decide in the first one, the second one also was abandoned after jury couldn’t come to a unanimous decision. Reports afterwards was a committed 10 (or 11) to one decision for Joh’s conviction, held up by a holdout who used to be the president of the young Liberals.

That’s our justice system, in action. Plenty of others who didn’t end up with the former president of the young Liberals on their jury were sent away.

We certainly need a proper ICAC, and we will almost certainly get one after the election. I can’t see the LNP getting back on their own numbers, they only have a one seat majority now and you’d have to think they will lose a few. So the most likely outcome is a hung parliament full of Bolshevik independents who are all campaigning on have a strong ICAC, or a solid Labor victory, in which case I’m with zen. Not sure how committed they will be to a real ICAC, given how many skeletons they have in their cupboard.

On the other hand, given that they haven’t been in government for 9 years, there aren’t too many inquiries that could go back that far, and Tony Abbott cleared out the low hanging culture war crap with his pink batts royal commission and then the trade union royal commission.

The big issue is about donations and transparency. If that ain’t cleaned up then we are still being led by corporates, and that ends poorly for everyone but the big corporates.

Nicely put!

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:07pm
sypkan wrote:

I hope they do replace him, otherwise it's going to be a bit of a no contest election, Im sick to the stomach tired of elections where the left candidate just hides (themselves and their agenda) whilst playing the pure personality politics of 'you can't possibly vote for that guy'... here and elswhere...

call me a romanticist, but I actually like a bit of substance. it'll suck if labor gets in on the current... cough cough... 'vision' ...they've been forward enough to not share with the public...

the replacement is tough though

they'll wheel out the old unpalatable potatoe suspects I guess...

I actually think if they wheeled out josh frydenberg they'd still have a great chance of winning

he's the mildest sychopath in the liberal party, quite moderate and even likeable, for a liberal...

I don't .. I hope he loses the election badly and the seat of Cook... That is what he deserves, oh and then facing a judge at ICAC....

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:09pm
GuySmiley wrote:

After the last election had Labor won I was expecting a DLP/ALP type split within the LNP between the few remaining moderates, the christian conservatives, the economic and social far righters and wherever the Nationals sit. Those factions and tensions still exist, perhaps more so, and are now openly bubbling along at a state level especially so in WA, Vic, NSW and QLD (Qld being a case study in its own category of weirdness). If there was an attempt to out Morrison before the election the infighting within the party would go nuclear and they would loose the election by a record margin. No Morrison will not be replaced to save some furniture but expect the biggest political shit fight within the LNP after the loss, its 3 years late meaning the blood loss will be greater.

Hope you are correct, I got my popcorn ready...

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sypkan Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:20pm

"I don't .. I hope he loses the election badly and the seat of Cook... That is what he deserves, oh and then facing a judge at ICAC...."

but if he loses badly, you'll probably only get half your wish...

or maybe you will get the ICAC you desire...

because...

"...So the most likely outcome is a hung parliament full of Bolshevik independents who are all campaigning on have a strong ICAC, or a solid Labor victory, in which case I’m with zen. Not sure how committed they will be to a real ICAC, given how many skeletons they have in their cupboard..."

Im hoping for a super hung parliment, or the ICAC will be dead in the grass / toothless...

sorry labor lubbers, the stench pit needs a good clean out... which means a nasty all encompassing ICAC that sorts shit once and for all...

if labor win by massive majority, practically nothing substantial will be dealt with, if anything at all...

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:23pm
GuySmiley wrote:

(Qld being a case study in its own category of weirdness).

Have considered this at length - I believe it's the humidity driving housing design, and the ability to have all sorts of weird hobbies (and do them well) on the lower floor. Descending in part from an eccentric QLD farming family, we have world authorities in their field (cutting of stones) with all the equipment on that lower floor of the Queenslander, we have world authorities in collecting items, we have 80 year olds still climbing on roofs to fix them and refusing help - all part and parcel of the tradition. As a small kid I wondered at the entire underneath of one of the relatives' houses, completely filled with agricultural pipe and an unused Land Rover with grass growing up through the motor. The 90 year old relatives, including my great grandmother, just grew beans and tobacco and my great uncle spent his days smoking it on the verandah and that was it. I even heard of a fellow who was restoring a Supermarine Spitfire, complete with 24L Merlin V12, under the house. It rubs off into thought and politics, it's made my upbringing far more colourful, love ya QLD, beautiful one day and perfect the next.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 1:26pm

Update to sportsbet odds, ALP narrowed to 1.35, coalition blown out to 3.10

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Optimist Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 2:42pm

I’m not real keen on any of the politicians at the moment either , so my only thought really is who is going to pay down the very essential COVID debt we had to have the fastest without over taxing the crap out of everyone….that would be the LNP. Even if you don’t like them, at least leave them in for another term to pay down the bank card then vote them out. Labor won’t be able to deal with our current debt levels as it isn’t one of their skill sets ….and I’m not saying they don’t have any skills….it’s just this isn’t one of them.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 2:50pm

It's a seriously depressing thought to be living in Victoria under a complete and utter fruit loop in Dictator Dan and then have each way Albo as PM. (China will be stoked though he will be kissing their arses)

Worst thing is after Scomo and LNP have done all the hard yards and got us through Covid with the economy still ticking along, real estate booming and among the lowest Covid death rate's in the world and one of the highest vax rates in the world, spineless vanilla Albo is most likely going to get all the credit.

It's not over until its over though, a lot can happen in a few months even days, and even if Labor get in once Covid is over they will start slipping back into all their woke ways and get booted out within a term or two.

And thank fuck the borders are open, those kunts would love to shut them again and take away any rights they can, but that wont be very easy now, they will have be liberal lite for a while, the only way they can get in these days.

Anyone concerned about loss of freedoms should really be honest with themselves and ask how it would have been under Labor, you only have to look at the Labor states to see the answer.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 2:47pm
Optimist wrote:

I’m not real keen on any of the politicians at the moment either , so my only thought really is who is going to pay down the very essential COVID debt we had to have the fastest without over taxing the crap out of everyone….that would be the LNP. Even if you don’t like them, at least leave them in for another term to pay down the bank card then vote them out. Labor won’t be able to deal with our current debt levels as it isn’t one of their skill sets ….and I’m not saying they don’t have any skills….it’s just this isn’t one of them.

100% lets just be thankful they weren't in during Covid or we would be way way more debt.

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AndyM Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 2:51pm
Optimist wrote:

I’m not real keen on any of the politicians at the moment either , so my only thought really is who is going to pay down the very essential COVID debt we had to have the fastest without over taxing the crap out of everyone….that would be the LNP. Even if you don’t like them, at least leave them in for another term to pay down the bank card then vote them out. Labor won’t be able to deal with our current debt levels as it isn’t one of their skill sets ….and I’m not saying they don’t have any skills….it’s just this isn’t one of them.

Optimist in light of modern monetary theory I’m still not sure of the necessity for a government to pay off this
so-called debt.
Apart from political ones what are the ramifications if this isn’t paid off?

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:09pm
AndyM wrote:
Optimist wrote:

I’m not real keen on any of the politicians at the moment either , so my only thought really is who is going to pay down the very essential COVID debt we had to have the fastest without over taxing the crap out of everyone….that would be the LNP. Even if you don’t like them, at least leave them in for another term to pay down the bank card then vote them out. Labor won’t be able to deal with our current debt levels as it isn’t one of their skill sets ….and I’m not saying they don’t have any skills….it’s just this isn’t one of them.

Optimist in light of modern monetary theory I’m still not sure of the necessity for a government to pay off this
so-called debt.
Apart from political ones what are the ramifications if this isn’t paid off?

Magic Money Tree theory is still just a theory.

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AndyM Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:28pm

The reality is right before you Indo, it’s a theory currently in practice.

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:32pm

LNP better economic managers because Murdoch told me so.... Squawk squawk.
Look at the figures and Labor generally spend less and tax less, and what they spend is towards the welfare of Australians not their mates such as Harvey Norman. Howard was highest taxing govt in history.... And set up a structural deficit... Woohoo....
Are we at a $trillion yet??????

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gsco Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:37pm

Regarding MMT, the idea is they don't have to pay the debt off, at least quickly.

What is important is the size of the debt relative to the size of the economy. They just need to grow the economy and keep the debt relatively unchanged or being paid off slowly. Then the debt becomes much more manageable, less of a burden and easier to pay off, particularly as taxation income grows proportionately with the economy.

It's like our own personal finances and budget. If we have a certain level of debt that doesn't grow or that we pay off slowly, but our income and wealth grows over time, then the debt becomes less of a burden and easier to pay off.

Note also that the government racked up all the debt by issuing bonds, most of which are at a fixed interest rate of nearly 0%.

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AndyM Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:40pm

But what debt gsco, debt to whom?

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:42pm

So which side is the better economic manager?
On both measures, the level of economic growth and that growth relative to the US, Labor is a better performer than the Coalition.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/09/labor-v-liberal-wh...

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:49pm
gsco wrote:

Regarding MMT, the idea is they don't have to pay the debt off, at least quickly.

What is important is the size of the debt relative to the size of the economy. They just need to grow the economy and keep the debt relatively unchanged or being paid off slowly. Then the debt becomes much more manageable, less of a burden and easier to pay off, particularly as taxation income grows proportionately with the economy.

It's like our own personal finances and budget. If we have a certain level of debt that doesn't grow or that we pay off slowly, but our income and wealth grows over time, then the debt becomes less of a burden and easier to pay off.

Note also that the government racked up all the debt by issuing bonds, most of which are at a fixed interest rate of nearly 0%.

I also believe it requires that the debt is spent on projects that employ people and add value to the long term prosperity of Australia such as key infrastructure projects. The money paid in wages is injected back into the economy and taxes are collected. Also projects then may create more effecicny therefore improving economic performance. The Multiplier effect plays a part here.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/multipliereffect.asp#:~:text=The%20....

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gsco Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 3:54pm

AndyM it's to whoever owns the bonds.

When the government wants to raise debt (borrow money), it issues bonds in financial markets. Market participants buy the bonds off the government. Hence, money flows from these participants to the government.

A bond is just a promise by the government (a contract) to pay back that money it raised when it issued the bond, via regular interest payments, called coupon payments, and then a lump sum when the bond matures, called the principal.

By definition, quantitative easing is when it is actually the Reserve Bank who is buying a lot of the bonds that are being issued by the government.

I don't have the exact breakdown in front of me but it's (both domestic and foreign) financial market participants like banks, managed funds including superannuation funds (and hence you), and the Reserve Bank who hold most of the bonds. So this is who the government owes the money to.

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monkeyboy Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:02pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

It's a seriously depressing thought to be living in Victoria under a complete and utter fruit loop in Dictator Dan and then have each way Albo as PM. (China will be stoked though he will be kissing their arses)

Worst thing is after Scomo and LNP have done all the hard yards and got us through Covid with the economy still ticking along, real estate booming and among the lowest Covid death rate's in the world and one of the highest vax rates in the world, spineless vanilla Albo is most likely going to get all the credit.

It's not over until its over though, a lot can happen in a few months even days, and even if Labor get in once Covid is over they will start slipping back into all their woke ways and get booted out within a term or two.

And thank fuck the borders are open, those kunts would love to shut them again and take away any rights they can, but that wont be very easy now, they will have be liberal lite for a while, the only way they can get in these days.

Anyone concerned about loss of freedoms should really be honest with themselves and ask how it would have been under Labor, you only have to look at the Labor states to see the answer.

Have to agree with the above. A mostly Labour Aus will not be a good thing.

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gsco Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:05pm

andy-mac yes you're exactly right.

Note that a lot of the money was spent on all the covid stimulus packages.

But yes the basic idea is that governments should try their best to invest the money in the productive capacity, infrastructure, skillset of the workforce, and technological capabilities, etc, of the country.

This has been done to a certain extent with covid, but the big issue in an "emergency" situation is just getting the money out there and circulating in the economy as quick as possible. For instance infrastructure projects take time to get off the ground.

So a lot of the covid stimulus money was just handed straight out to the people and put in their pocket to spend, just to get it out there, as apposed to investing in the productive capacity of the nation.

Again I don't know the exact breakdowns of where the money went.

Australia now kind of needs a long period of economic prosperity like after world war II to reduce the debt burden.

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GuySmiley Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:05pm

How ya reckon a discussion on our debt and MMT would go down in Norway?

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etarip Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:07pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

Worst thing is after Scomo and LNP have done all the hard yards and got us through Covid with the economy still ticking along, real estate booming and among the lowest Covid death rate's in the world and one of the highest vax rates in the world, spineless vanilla Albo is most likely going to get all the credit.

Anyone concerned about loss of freedoms should really be honest with themselves and ask how it would have been under Labor, you only have to look at the Labor states to see the answer.

How’s the real estate boom good for ‘Australia’ ID? Seems that they’ve actually lost control of it to the detriment of a large proportion, if not a small majority overall.
Getting rid of NG and CGT discounts would have been a far better policy outcome for Australians.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:23pm
AndyM wrote:

The reality is right before you Indo, it’s a theory currently in practice.

Way above my pay grade, but it seems experts on it don't agree at all some swear it's real and works some swear its a complete hoax.

It might be an experiment currently underway in some places, but the experiment is not over yet.

And even if it does work it might only work for so long to some extent, seems like a very dangerous game to play.

And also one thing is clear the USA and the USD is very different thing to other countries and their currencies.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:30pm
etarip wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:

Worst thing is after Scomo and LNP have done all the hard yards and got us through Covid with the economy still ticking along, real estate booming and among the lowest Covid death rate's in the world and one of the highest vax rates in the world, spineless vanilla Albo is most likely going to get all the credit.

Anyone concerned about loss of freedoms should really be honest with themselves and ask how it would have been under Labor, you only have to look at the Labor states to see the answer.

How’s the real estate boom good for ‘Australia’ ID? Seems that they’ve actually lost control of it to the detriment of a large proportion, if not a small majority overall.
Getting rid of NG and CGT discounts would have been a far better policy outcome for Australians.

It's a complex topic and a bit of a two edged sword, with positives and negatives but increased wealth (even just equity) is generally a good thing for people and countries while too much debt isn't, the result of the real estate boom though is a generally an effect of prosperity, real estate price rarely rise in bad times.

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AndyM Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:34pm
indo-dreaming wrote:
AndyM wrote:

The reality is right before you Indo, it’s a theory currently in practice.

And even if it does work it might only work for so long to some extent, seems like a very dangerous game to play.

And also one thing is clear the USA and the USD is very different thing to other countries and their currencies.

“Might” and “seems” aren’t worth much Indo, got anything better?

And in what way is the United States different? We are both sovereign states with our own currencies and with the ability to print money.

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gsco Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:48pm
AndyM wrote:

And in what way is the United States different? We are both sovereign states with our own currencies and with the ability to print money.

Have a look at what it means to be the world's reserve currency and then How the U.S. Dollar Became the World's Reserve Currency.

indo-dreaming wrote:

It's a complex topic and a bit of a two edged sword, with positives and negatives but increased wealth (even just equity) is generally a good thing for people and countries while too much debt isn't, the result of the real estate boom though is a generally an effect of prosperity, real estate price rarely rise in bad times.

ID, the main problem with the property boom is all the people who missed the boat and now will possibly never be able to own property. So it's just reinforcing inequality and concentration of wealth, and likely contributing to the development of a large lower class in our society of people stuck living in poverty. That isn't desirable.

It seems that neither of the political parties have the backbone to tackle the issue.

The problem can be easily indicated here by comparing weekly wages to property prices:

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 4:53pm
AndyM wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:
AndyM wrote:

The reality is right before you Indo, it’s a theory currently in practice.

And even if it does work it might only work for so long to some extent, seems like a very dangerous game to play.

And also one thing is clear the USA and the USD is very different thing to other countries and their currencies.

“Might” and “seems” aren’t worth much Indo, got anything better?

And in what way is the United States different? We are both sovereign states with our own currencies and with the ability to print money.

No because i honestly dont know, Ive read and listened to experts from both sides talk about it and they seem to have completely different views, from a complete laymans perceptive it doesn't make sense, and seems to go against the rule of "if it seems to be good to be true it generally is"

The USD i expect is different because its basically the global currency that other currencies are measured against and there is a shit load of them and a shit load of debt owed to USA, it's very different beast to our AUD.

I dont understand why or how this matters but i understand that it could somehow.

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 5:17pm
gsco wrote:
AndyM wrote:

And in what way is the United States different? We are both sovereign states with our own currencies and with the ability to print money.

Have a look at what it means to be the world's reserve currency and then How the U.S. Dollar Became the World's Reserve Currency.

indo-dreaming wrote:

It's a complex topic and a bit of a two edged sword, with positives and negatives but increased wealth (even just equity) is generally a good thing for people and countries while too much debt isn't, the result of the real estate boom though is a generally an effect of prosperity, real estate price rarely rise in bad times.

ID, the main problem with the property boom is all the people who missed the boat and now will possibly never be able to own property. So it's just reinforcing inequality and concentration of wealth, and likely contributing to the development of a large lower class in our society of people stuck living in poverty. That isn't desirable.

It seems that neither of the political parties have the backbone to tackle the issue.

The problem can be easily indicated here by comparing weekly wages to property prices:

Gsco, Do you think it is likely that these prices will continue, or is there a possibility of a major correction or crash?
Not just a 5-10% drop, but something big. If houses dropped 10%on Sunny Coast, they will be were they were 2 weeks ago it seems. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The social implications as you pointed out are scary, creating a whole underclass which cannot be a good thing.

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gsco Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 5:54pm
andy-mac wrote:

Do you think it is likely that these prices will continue, or is there a possibility of a major correction or crash?
Not just a 5-10% drop, but something big. If houses dropped 10%on Sunny Coast, they will be were they were 2 weeks ago it seems. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The social implications as you pointed out are scary, creating a whole underclass which cannot be a good thing.

Property prices would need to drop like more than 50% on the Sunny Coast to get to pre-covid levels! Of course who knows what will happen, anything is possible (nice deflection there by me)...

I'll just say again I think Australia is at a moral choice point.

Do we go down a more US style neoliberal path of accumulation of wealth and zero fucks given for those left behind and disadvantaged in society?

I don't think this is the Australian way. I think we've always been a society and people more conscious of equality, social justice and egalitarianism.

I believe these were once core Labor party values, and assume they still are...

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 6:03pm
gsco wrote:
andy-mac wrote:

Do you think it is likely that these prices will continue, or is there a possibility of a major correction or crash?
Not just a 5-10% drop, but something big. If houses dropped 10%on Sunny Coast, they will be were they were 2 weeks ago it seems. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The social implications as you pointed out are scary, creating a whole underclass which cannot be a good thing.

Property prices would need to drop like more than 50% on the Sunny Coast to get to pre-covid levels! Of course who knows what will happen, anything is possible (nice deflection there by me)...

I'll just say again I think Australia is at a moral choice point.

Do we go down a more US style neoliberal path of accumulation of wealth and zero fucks given for those left behind and disadvantaged in society?

I don't think this is the Australian way. I think we've always been a society and people more conscious of equality, social justice and egalitarianism.

I believe these were once core Labor party values, and assume they still are...

Cheers,
My thoughts also. Problem is though for many if they do drop 50% a lot of people will face economic ruin. If there is not a correction then many face a bleak economic future. I don't have a solution, but don't think it should have been allowed to come to this. Negative gearing, CGT, restricted ownership to citizens, limit the number of properties someone can own??
Dunno? Something I feel will have to give, unless we want tent suburbs in own cities.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 6:34pm
gsco wrote:
AndyM wrote:

And in what way is the United States different? We are both sovereign states with our own currencies and with the ability to print money.

Have a look at what it means to be the world's reserve currency and then How the U.S. Dollar Became the World's Reserve Currency.

indo-dreaming wrote:

It's a complex topic and a bit of a two edged sword, with positives and negatives but increased wealth (even just equity) is generally a good thing for people and countries while too much debt isn't, the result of the real estate boom though is a generally an effect of prosperity, real estate price rarely rise in bad times.

ID, the main problem with the property boom is all the people who missed the boat and now will possibly never be able to own property. So it's just reinforcing inequality and concentration of wealth, and likely contributing to the development of a large lower class in our society of people stuck living in poverty. That isn't desirable.

It seems that neither of the political parties have the backbone to tackle the issue.

The problem can be easily indicated here by comparing weekly wages to property prices:

Yeah like i said it's a double edge sword positives and negatives, its a problem being seeing around most of the developed world and even some undeveloped countries, i cant see how any political party can fix it though unless the market was flooded with land and continued to flood the market keeping supply ahead of demand.

BTW. It always comes back to success never being equal and the more success there is in a society the bigger the gap will become between the haves and have nots, people often go looking for better economic/social systems because of this like Communism and Socialism which only turns everyone into the have-nots.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 6:40pm

I think a good start and something that shouldn't be too painful is that you can only negatively gear a maximum of two properties, that being your primary place of residence and either your investment or holiday house or whatever. These people with a 'property portfolio' are the ones that are driving the market and even if interest rates increase It's not too much of a hit for them as the increase can be passed on to their tenants and the net tax benefit still falls in their favour. That is something that could be looked at. Also, foreign ownership should also be looked at- not necessarily making the owner an Australian citizen but that person must at least reside in Australia. Commercial property could be exempt from the above because the biggest problem is the difficulty all day every day Aussies are finding to get into their own homes.

I know this goes against my own principles but I really don't think anyone needs to own more than two dwellings, but if they can afford more than two then they should pay accordingly.

imo.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 6:52pm

Just let interest rates revert back up to their historical average - either set by central banks, or set by the market, I care not by this stage; they are abnormally low. Tide goes out. Chaos. Then housing will be affordable.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 7:21pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

Just let interest rates revert back up to their historical average - either set by central banks, or set by the market, I care not by this stage; they are abnormally low. Tide goes out. Chaos. Then housing will be affordable.

Prices drop as people can borrow less and pay more in interest, but does it really make things more affordable???

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etarip Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 7:25pm

With you Zen, capping the number of properties that are NG-able at 1-2.

With you on foreign ownership too. It just needs to take the speculative element out of housing.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 7:37pm

Debt that is unsustainable and mal-investment get wiped out in that scenario Indo. Asset prices are reset, and after they bottom, a new economic cycle with much higher natural growth rates begins, one with far less moral hazard in the pricing and amount of risk to be taken on. Higher natural yields reward saving and encourage more productive investment.
We are well and truly overdue for such a scenario.

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andy-mac Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 7:42pm
zenagain wrote:

I think a good start and something that shouldn't be too painful is that you can only negatively gear a maximum of two properties, that being your primary place of residence and either your investment or holiday house or whatever. These people with a 'property portfolio' are the ones that are driving the market and even if interest rates increase It's not too much of a hit for them as the increase can be passed on to their tenants and the net tax benefit still falls in their favour. That is something that could be looked at. Also, foreign ownership should also be looked at- not necessarily making the owner an Australian citizen but that person must at least reside in Australia. Commercial property could be exempt from the above because the biggest problem is the difficulty all day every day Aussies are finding to get into their own homes.

I know this goes against my own principles but I really don't think anyone needs to own more than two dwellings, but if they can afford more than two then they should pay accordingly.

imo.

Agree.
One house to live in.
One house has holiday home.
One as investment ( must have tenants).
Anymore after that then no NG or any other tax breaks. Maybe even tax the 4th more with land tax as a disincentive.
Again I don't know as sure accountants would find ways around it...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 7:54pm

Owing multiple houses isn't really the issue if they are rented out to permanent tenants, the problem is when they are just holiday rentals or left empty.

For instance i knew a guy that had 17 houses 15 rented out to tenants 2 he used, we might be jealous of his property portfolio and income he had going but really he is helping providing rental housing and taking pressure off the government to need to fill this void.

What we need is incentives for people to lease out their houses permanently and big disincentives for house's to sit empty and even disincentives for holiday rentals.

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GuySmiley Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 8:18pm

You grow up the Valley living in a Housing Commission or SEC house info?

While the current policies forego large amounts of tax (heavily favouring high income earners) that money could also be used to build/maintain large stocks of public housing for low income earners.

See current policies continue current inequity

etarip's picture
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etarip Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 8:18pm

Hey Indo, I don’t have an issue with people building property portfolios. I just don’t think the taxpayer should subsidize them. Renting is a tough game for many people; they lack surety of leases, subject to price rices and often have properties sold from underneath them.
I don’t see any benevolence in the actions of your mate. It’s capitalism. If he didn’t own them, then someone else would. Unless it’s a holiday home, it would likely be owner / occupied or rented out. He’s not providing a service to the government.

I move a lot for work, so I’ve usually rented. I own a couple of apartments, one that I’ve lived in and one that I bought as an investment when I was in my early 20s. Both been positively geared for most of the time I’ve owned them. My views aren’t based on envy, this isn’t an ‘eat the rich’ comment. I Just don’t see the need to slug the taxpayer.

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zenagain Saturday, 5 Feb 2022 at 9:20pm

Indo- what the bloke above said.

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andy-mac Sunday, 6 Feb 2022 at 8:29am

That is the crux of the matter spot on. Tax payer should not subsidize others property investments. Also should be some disincentives for multiple properties stating vacant. If you are fortunate and wealthy enough to own multiple holiday homes then a appropriate tax could apply, maybe worked out on water usage??
Anyway big problem i reckon is brewing here and some are going to hurt, whether over extended borrowers or people not being able to put a roof over their family's head.

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andy-mac Sunday, 6 Feb 2022 at 8:34am

In regards to owners selling their houses whilst tenanted; kind of feel it is the right of the owner to sell what is theirs when they wish. Maybe some kind of system where there are incentives for people to but houses for specific reason of letting but then a contractual agreement with govt body that they cannot sell for set period and some type of incentive to attract buyers in this market?
Ultimately though from my understanding, there does need to be a major addition of govt housing to the market for lower socio economic groups..

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 6 Feb 2022 at 10:14am
GuySmiley wrote:

You grow up the Valley living in a Housing Commission or SEC house info?

While the current policies forego large amounts of tax (heavily favouring high income earners) that money could also be used to build/maintain large stocks of public housing for low income earners.

See current policies continue current inequity

Dad did work in the SEC but i was lucky enough to not live in them as Dad went to Vietnam so i think they got a crazy low interest loan and maybe deposit free or something like that for being a Vietnam veteran, but i lived not far from these housing commission areas and had friends that lived in them in both Traralgon & Morwell and went to school near housing commission areas, actually right in the middle of one fir a while with lots of kids from the housing commission areas.

Hence i think these type of public housing commission areas are terrible ideas they basically become low social economic slums where nobody bothers to mows their lawns, often no gardens there always seems to be a broken down old car somewhere and people often treat their house with very little pride because its not theirs and they pay virtually no rent so not always appreciated and then the places just fall into disrepair and it just becomes a black hole for public funds to maintain and id expect those that repair them overcharging as tradies do for government, council, insurance work.

Not to mention the areas always become areas with real bad reputations for safety and high levels of crime etc.

My gran moved to some public housing in Frankston too before she passed away and id always visit her and it was the same thing basically just a developed world slum.

Id much rather see ways of encouraging private investment in permanent rental housing saving the government both the cost of ownership (or construction) of housing and cost of maintenance of housing and avoiding the creation of slums because the rental housing isn't just concentrated in on area but dispersed throughout all communities.

If there is a case for government funded housing id much rather see it in the form of high density housing like you see in Carlton, but again these areas basically become low social economic slums.

But you also need to have smart policy around this type of high density housing like they do in Singapore where there has to be diversity in ethnicities to prevent the ethnic enslave slums seen in areas of Europe which only create negative stereotypes and fuel's racism issues, opposed to smart policy that encourages multiculturalism.

https://wearenotdivided.reasonstobecheerful.world/the-country-where-dive...

BTW. Im a home owner now but ive rented in share house's & units as soon as i left home at 18 until my 30s (three on the Goldie and at least half a dozen more places in Vicco) and i have siblings who are currently renting, so im not painting all renters in one light or even all those who live in housing commission areas but you only have to visit these housing commission areas to see what im talking about in my mind they aren't ideal and are more a failed thing of the past.