Australia - you're standing in it

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Sheepdog started the topic in Friday, 18 Sep 2020 at 11:51am

The "I can't believe it's not politics" thread.

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H2O Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 1:25pm

Good quote VJ- author?

Read a book called The Meaning of the 21st Century, just after we crossed over.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Meaning_of_the_21st_Century .

The author talks about the mid 21st century being like the narrowing of a canyon that we will either get trough with flying colours or go down. Consequences.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 19 Dec 2020 at 1:50pm

Hey H20, that's Churchill himself. The France 24 article describes how he was so perceptive so early of the threat rising in Europe at the time, In ship terms, he'd been first Lord of the Admiralty before and so understood what needed to be reconstructed/built. Although Chamberlain cops a lot of flak certain programs like the Southampton class cruisers, Illustrious class carriers and KGV class battleships were begun on his watch. Not rebuilding all older fleet units ended up costing them dearly. From what I can see today (naval arms race in Pacific), IMO RAN is equipping very well and getting a lot of capability for the $$.

Now that particular book is an absolute favourite. I used to have a copy, lost it! You may note we're living through the bio/pandemic scenario right now! Tech and AI out of control, planet getting irreversible damage, incredible technology and increases in health... But a century on a knife edge.

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Sickaz Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 4:09am

velocity Johnny, I am pretty much ignorant on the issue of the modern RAN and I am interested after reading your last post, what are the recent investments in the RAN, where are we at? You seem to have a good knowledge of the subject.

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Distracted Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 6:23am

On the RAN, I’m trying to get my head around why submarines are so critical and worth such an investment relative to other parts of the defence force?

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Ralph Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:46am

From what I have heard the submarine investment looks like a dud. We're going for the old diesel electric propulsion system when we should be going nuclear. Going nuclear would also be a good way to develop an Australian nuclear industry which could extend to electricity generation.

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etarip Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 10:04am

Yay and nay Ralph.
There’s a balance of pros and cons with nuke vs Diesel Electric. It’s not clear cut.
DE are, generally, quieter and also more capable in shallow waters. They can get closer to where you might want to be.
Nukes have great endurance but aren’t as quiet and are more suited to deeper waters.
Considering our subs would likely be operating in primarily coastal waters in the region it’s a fair call to go with DE.

As far as numbers go, 12 is a significant investment in deterrence. Whether that’s the right amount, who knows?

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Snuffy Smith Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 10:22am

"Every generation has to recover from what it was taught in its youth"

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 10:59am

Tell me about it Snuffy, still recovering from the economic/class marxism I was taught at uni, and when that was proven not to work, the cultural marxism rampant in the Anthropology dept...

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JQ Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 11:06am

Hey Eta, can you elaborate for me on how DE subs are quieter than a nuclear one? Really curious on that.

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 11:11am

Hey crew, RAN: you'd probably be best looking at sites like the Navy League and online journals for the ADF. I'm just a surfer, history grad who likes ships with 0 experience at sea defending Australia. So take the 2c as very cheap.

But for what I can see, I know the history of what happened last time (apex in 1942) and see we have equipped with 2 new Canberra class LHDs, F35s (which can't land on the LHDs sadly), new air warfare destroyers with Aegis, new frigates, we have our own new radar systems that are very good, have just signed on for the British type 26 design (excellent anti-sub capabilities, very quiet, builds on type 23) - and are building them here. We have re-booted naval industrial capacity, including the subs to replace the Collins class. Subs are important now - moreso than before. Future conflict is likely to be missiles everywhere, and if you are on the surface everyone can see you. Subs have that initial stealth. Diesel electric is good, as the electric drives can be very quiet. Also, it's hard to kick start a nuclear submarine industry - or reignite one, ask the UK. Again IMO, I think the purchasing has been pretty smart, balancing growing the ability to make defence items with getting value for $ on proven designs like the LHD.

Strategic setting for SE Asia has similarities and differences to last time. Best defence is working with partners in the region and being able to integrate with them well, again IMO

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 12:35pm

If I could use a historic precedent to scare you into more awareness, this series, presented in tactical map format with the history & photos, is a good way to do it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFvMlPvEr6w&list=PLkwc6O1DGECndVDbh_QIDv...

(Edit: link adjusted to first in series)

All 7 episodes, detailing the fall of the Dutch East Indies (& Palembang oilfields) and eradication of the ABDA command. Fall of Singapore happened at the same time. Disaster.

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shoredump Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 12:13pm

I’m currently going through ADF recruitment. Talk about going with the flow, after 14 years with a commercial airline.
I was thinking seriously about a sub position till I realised they won’t arrive till I’m ready to leave. Would have been very interesting, although claustrophobic. A navy mates comment was “weird cnts work on subs” when I asked his advice. Going for a ground crew RAAF job instead, though the deals not done yet. Also, I don’t want to die, another reason not to work on one of those subs

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 12:20pm

"Also, I don’t want to die, another reason not to work on one of those subs"

Pretty decent reason :D

I know nothing about subs, but it's an interesting discussion.

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etarip Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 12:52pm

JQ: Definitely not an expert, but I think k it relates the fact that they can’t turn a reactor off. Always some noise on a nuke.
DEs can switch everything off and sit.

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udo Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 1:01pm

Fuck i remember when the HMAS Otama was on the surface and then dove deep way off the NSW coast
but left to young seamen up on the fin..poor buggers
R.I.P.

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 1:30pm

Here's a more up to date presentation of strategic options, maybe a read Shoredump:

https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2016/8/25/defeating-anti-access...

You can see increased role for subs.

Also, good luck to Australia's petrol and diesel coming all nice and refined from Singapore in any of those situations. Lucky we've got all these refineries... oh, wait

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GuySmiley Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 1:39pm

If your second name is Stains best not join the Navy

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Vic Local Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 1:46pm

And if you plan to be a Cabin Boy, it's best that you're not called Roger.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 2:11pm

And don’t be fooled into looking for the golden rivet down at the bottom of the engine room

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GuySmiley Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 2:32pm

I got a ex Navy mate and 2 ex merchant navy mates, all are full of eye watering funny stories of their adventures. Not a life for a married man with a skerrick of decency.

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GuySmiley Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 2:33pm

§§

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etarip Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 2:37pm

Merchant Navy is where we’re well underdone. Not enough maritime experience and skills to draw on at short notice and almost no merchant fleet to support Navy if needed. Let alone a virtually non-existent shipbuilding industry (less the ‘new’ naval shipbuilding - which is hard to sustain given our small navy)

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Ralph Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 4:12pm

@etarip
Yes you're right! I found this article about DE vs nuclear which is interesting.

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2018/june/theres-case-diesels

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GuySmiley Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 5:34pm

Ex navy mate says nothing wrong with the idea of DE subs but retrofitting DE engines to nuclear subs is batshit crazy.

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indo-dreaming Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 9:40pm

That link of Ralphs was interesting.

What happens to a Nuclear sub if it does get blown up?...i mean does it cause contamination from nuclear waste or uranium?

And moving forward how easy will it even be to get Diesel say in 20-30 years time?

Which got me thinking the next logical choice would be hydrogen subs.

And seems it is a thing....interesting read.

"The secret sauce in the new generation of German submarines is the use of hydrogen fuel cells for power, which allows submarines to operate nearly silently for weeks at a time without using expensive nuclear reactors."

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-germanys-new-super-stealt...

etarip's picture
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etarip Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:04am

Reckon ya can’t go wrong buying subs from the Germans. While I think DE are the answer, I don’t know the details on the actual choice we made. French, Barracuda (Nuke) design with DE engines..

With most Defence purchases for the past 30 years the key (political) determinant has been local industry content, not actual capability. Which is why Army is lumped with a fleet of expensive, lemon helicopters. Actually fucked if we ever have to use them somewhere that someone might shoot back. It’s a scandal waiting to happen.

Back to topic: if you want to go full history nerd, compare the US Navy sub campaign against Japan with the Nazi U-Boat campaign against the Allies. One worked, one almost did - for a little while. Absolute economic strangulation. If you want to think about how the US might fight a war against China I reckon that’s a useful comparison.

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etarip Sunday, 20 Dec 2020 at 8:53pm

Sorry, just to clarify - Germans build great littoral (coastal) subs but the range requirements of Australia’s Navy made them less competitive.

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upnorth Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 2:32am

Saw a documentary about the Astute class nuclear powered subs of the Royal Navy. Incredible machines. Crew seemed like a bunch of cool cats, probably a good thing on board a sub.

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GuySmiley Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:15am

Just a thought but how many western subs would be cruising or parked in the South China Sea right now.

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Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:51am
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Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:52am
etarip's picture
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etarip Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 11:25am

This isn’t a game of ‘risk’.

What a load of hot cock.

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Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 11:34am

It pretty much is a game of risk only using live bullets instead of dice.

Anyway....China doesn’t need to invade with our corrupt ALP / LNP duopoly at the helm ( From Macrobusiness) :

“During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the Rudd Government relaxed foreign ownership rules to make it easier for overseas buyers to purchase Australian property. This measure, which was the antithesis of a housing affordability policy, was justified on the grounds that it would support the property market and prevent a downturn.

We are experiencing similar shenanigans with the COVID-19 pandemic, with Australia’s governments offering foreign home buyers up to $50,000 in subsidies to purchase a new Australian home.

From News.com.au:

Chinese buyers are being lured back to the Australian property market by generous government rebates of up to $50,000 on a new home, with calls to extend the incentive schemes past their expiry dates next year.

Lily Chong, the Perth-based Australian head of Chinese property portal Juwai IQI, said overseas buyers had started looking past the COVID-19 pandemic and were planning for when travel restrictions eased.

“Australia will pay foreigners up to $50,000 to buy a new home,” Ms Chong said…

“Because of the pandemic, most foreign buyers don’t know about these incentives,” Ms Chong said.

“When we explain it to them, their eyes pop open. Buyers are rushing for us to get their deals done before the deadline expires”…

Ms Chong predicted the incentives would shift overseas buyers from other parts of the country to WA and to a lesser extent, to Melbourne…

Juwai IQI co-founder Georg Chmiel said while it “sounds strange to pay foreigners to buy houses and apartments, in fact it makes sense”.

“This is a triple win for Australia,” he said.

“These incentives will reduce the housing shortage, stimulate the economy with construction jobs, and protect the housing market from a sharp fall.”

I await the day that Australia’s governments implement a ‘First Immigrants Grant’ (FIG) to new migrants.

These are the types of twisted policies that you get when you are the property equivalent of a narco state.“

etarip's picture
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etarip Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 11:47am

Those videos were a load of tripe. It’s a gamer, building a BS scenario then using attritional calculations to see who ‘wins’ at the end. That’s simply not the way the world works. And certainly not the way that China operates.

Don’t disagree on the real threat being political and economic.

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Ralph Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 12:09pm

I read an article written by a defence analyst recently where he was saying that it would be good for Australia to host US military bases. He reckons this would deter the Chinese from encroaching on our territory.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 12:12pm

I agree. The US stationed on the Pilbara coast would be a better alternative to having us invaded by China.

Not such a cool thing if they’re never needed and the Pilbara just became a hot bed of entitled US grunts.

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 8:33pm

Cities in China go dark as electricity is rationed for millions

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/cites-in-china-go-dark-as-electricity-...

Normally Santa will give you a lump of coal for Christmas if you've been bad, but I dunno if he will this year...

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Blowin Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 9:05pm

ALP in danger of sounding racist

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-says-morrison-government-d...

About time. Their woke voter base is going to be distraught.

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shoredump Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 6:52am

“Ha ha”

- Nelson Muntz

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 10:05am

Here’s a bit of reality for the Ardern sycophants out there :

“Meantime … New Zealand …

… No wonder the latest IPSOS Issues Monitors find that ‘housing’ is a major concern of 53% (highest on record) of New Zealanders (up from 37% in the previous quarter) … 16% of Australians … 14% of the British …

… New Zealand has by far and away the worst housing crisis at a national level within the English – speaking world (Demographia Housing Affordability Surveys) … and by far and away the highest homelessness rate in the OECD (latest ANZ Bank Economics Unit Report) …

Residents express hopelessness as houses in poverty-hit Ōtara sell for $1m … Jordan Bond … Radio New Zealand

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/433354/residents-express-hopelessnes...

Million-dollar houses are now being sold in one of Auckland’s lowest-income suburbs and a local politician says government failure is allowing the market to drive further inequality and hopelessness.

Last month an unremarkable 1960s weatherboard house on less than a quarter acre section in Ōtara in South Auckland sold for $1.01 million.

Another – which 12 years ago sold for $340,000 – went for $1.1m, more than triple its last sale price in October. … read more via hyperlink above …
.
.
… Wow … a Wellington example … Poor Porirua has the most hyperinflated residential rents …

‘Desperation’ for homes driving rent prices up in small-town New Zealand … Vita Molyneux … Newshub

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/12/desperation-for-homes...

… concluding …

… The fact that people are willing to live in overcrowded homes is a perfect example of the crisis, says (local Northland marae chair Dolly …) Baker.

“They don’t care about the price, about the crowding – desperation drives people to do whatever they need to do.”

It’s a similar story across the country – recently Porirua, a suburb outside of Wellington, hit headlines as the most expensive place to rent in New Zealand with an eye-watering average rent of $625 per week.

It’s a lower socioeconomic area – data from the 2013 census shows 25.4 percent of those employed are on low incomes and 8.3 percent have no income at all. More than 30 percent of Porirua are renters, and a 2018 report found 20 percent of children lived in overcrowded houses, and a quarter were in homes that were damp and mouldy. … VIEW AND READ MORE via hyperlink above …“

Inception level convolutions of irony here :

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 10:04am

File this under “ I’m sure it’s just a coincidence......”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/04/thinking-big-new-zealands-...

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 10:22am

From article: "Immigration cannot solve the problem of an ageing population, the demographer Dr Natalie Jackson says, because immigrants often quickly conform to the birthrate of the country in which they settle."

yep, f&*king expensive RE and cost of living don't discriminate

but it's a nicer place with more opportunity than others, so pay up

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 11:36am

"Immigration cannot solve the problem of an ageing population"
The ageing population problem??? No one thought of this back when they started encouraging everyone to live to 100? They can continue to lift the pension age but that will simply throw millions of 75yos into poverty, as no one hires 75yos - theyre spent. Yes, modern medicine and not drinking and smoking your whole life will get you to 100, but an 80yo cant lay bricks, cant sit all day at a desk. Facts. So all this tax society has "saved" on health by cutting down on "sins" is gonna be blown on aged pensions and privately owned nursing homes giving the aged "residents" kerosine baths and allowing maggots to grow in their wounds

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 12:27pm

The idea that an ageing population is necessarily a problem comes from a neolib point of view and ignores other factors.

In any case, an ageing population doesn't necessarily have to be an economic issue, at least according to the University of Manchester.

https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/global-social-challenges/2019/06/03/is-an...

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Island Bay Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 12:40pm

Blowin, the housing crisis is very real over here. NZ housing has been stupidly unaffordable for at least 10 years, but it's gone bonkers during Covid. And you get absolute shite for your money.

The government doesn't seem to have any ideas of how to address the issue, so watch it get much worse before it improves. "Be kind!" and "diversity" hasn't done much so far.

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loungelizard Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 12:46pm

with all governments printing money to pay for the covid debt its only going to get worse. don't leave it under your bed

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 12:49pm

IB is it a case of if you decide to live 1hr drive away, RE gets more affordable and workers can commute (commute/work from home mix)?

Japan is just letting their population age and reduce, preserving their people as the Yamato people. Because of this, they are getting 'abandoned ghost houses' in the country as the population is not replacing in some areas. Not the end of the world at all.

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Ralph Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 1:06pm

Maybe we will end up with the old Asian extended family model where 3 generations live in the same household with the result that the old people have somewhere to live and stay connected and the middle generation get free childcare for their kids.

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Island Bay Wednesday, 23 Dec 2020 at 2:14pm

On the contrary, VJ. Areas 1 to 1.5hrs from Wellington have shot up almost 50%.

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Blowin Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 9:41am

Houses and holes

Or

Holes and houses.

Australia.....yewwwwwww

https://au.gsk.com/en-au/media/press-releases/2016/ermington-manufacturing/