Submitted by Supafreak on Sun, 08/02/2020 - 15:15
Just watched the press release from Dan Andrews and I really feel for how victorians are going to once again pay for others stupidity. Not sure how they are going to police the 1 hour exercise policy but a trip down the coast for a surf could be costly. I understand these new restrictions are mainly Melbourne suburbs and I’m very grateful for where I live NSW Qld border. When we were in shutdown there was no time limit for our exercise thank god as a 3 hour surf kept me sane after losing my job.
The survival rates in the US for people under the age of 70 is 99.5 percent. Better for the younger. That is an indisputable scientific fact.
If we had just protected the elderly and every person in Australia who has been infected was under the age of 70 then we would have only had 135 deaths ( 27078 times 0,005 ), people would be free to live , love , work and play and the economy wouldn’t be in tatters.
Protect the vulnerable and elderly , voluntarily isolation if they so wish . Allow the rest of the country to go about their lives with commonsense social distancing , masks in tightly packed enclosed environments and decent personnel hygiene . The numbers don’t lie. The science says we are going at this arse about.
Your mistake is broadly and inappropriately applying the statistic of deaths per million to the entire population despite the fact that the deaths are disproportionately concentrated in a tiny and easily distinguishable cohort of the population.
The countries that haven't locked down hard have suffered even worse economic consequences, and they got the medical crisis as well.
Look at the comparable countries.
Canada vs USA
Sweden vs Norway
Germany vs England
Portugal vs Spain
Only a village idiot of the highest order would advocate for an anti-lockdown position. It's been an utter failure all around the globe, in terms of protecting bother human health and the economy.
"angry online, smiley in the brine"
VL their economic problems are the result of domino effects from their locked down trading partners, not of higher covid death rates.
"The survival rates in the US for people under the age of 70 is 99.5 percent."
You cannot calculate the number of deaths from the survival rate without reference to the infection rate. The simple fact is that the death rate for the whole population in the US is 0.00063%. The figure for Australia is 0.000035%. The US death rate is 18 times higher than the Australian. I stand by my original point.
Not sure why you’d stand by an incorrect assessment of the situation ?
I just demonstrated that your understanding of the statistics is a result of wrongful application of varying death rates when calculating outcomes.
"VL their economic problems are the result of domino effects from their locked down trading partners, not of higher covid death rates."
Gee you talk absolute gibberish billy. Those countries have very similar trading partners, but the ones with a worse economic performance all have much higher death rates and less strict lockdown laws.
For your argument to work, you'd have to assume that those "domino effects from locked down trading partners" only impact the USA but not Canada, Portungal but not Spain. England but not Germany etc.
You know what shits me the most billythekid?
There's only a handful of countries that don't envy Australia's covid 19 situation. You on the other hand think countries (with utterly broken economies and full grave yards) that haven't locked down hard are in a better shape than us. That's idiocy of the highest order.
I’m still not sure what you think has been accomplished by these ridiculous blanket lockdowns . At best they have postponed the inevitable at the expense of virtually every other metric of a successful society.
We had a first lockdown. The issue temporarily abated.
We have just seen a second lockdown . The issue has temporarily abated.
Care to guess what happens next in lieu of a vaccine ?
Here’s a hint :
Third lockdown. Issue temporarily abated.
Fourth lockdown. Issue temporarily abated.
Fifth lockdown. Issue temporarily abated.
Sixth lockdown. Issue temporarily abated.
Ah, Blowin and his captain hindsight skills hey. If there hadn't been a lock down, and the virus had run much more rampant - like it has in countries that haven't had some form of lockdown - you'd be here saying the same things with just a few words changed.
Lockdowns were absolutely justified, at that point in time the information was rather thin on the ground, better to go hard than to underestimate. If you underestimate then all the effort is wasted.
Australia was and is in a unique situation, where cases are low enough that lockdowns are a viable tactic. There are states that have gone weeks or even months without a case. This would not have been possible without some form of lock down. If (maybe once?) the virus is more widely spread, then lockdowns become largely pointless. But while we still have some reasonable amount of control, extreme measures are justified.
I must say though Blowin, this latest position tracks perfectly for your character arc.
"I just demonstrated that your understanding of the statistics is a result of wrongful application of varying death rates when calculating outcomes."
Yeh you have a point but it is a very limited one. Assuming your figure is right, you are still left with the two problems I identified. One the infection rate is still going up and so the death rate will continue to rise and probably end up in the thousands. Face masks and social distancing reduce transmission but are far from 100% effective. To reduce R below 1 about 95% of the population need to wear masks. This is unlikely to be achieved. To be effective, social distancing also needs to include restrictions on the numbers at venues, as well as workplace closures, which would seem to defeat your purpose. Life would not return to normal.
Then there is the assumption that everyone over 70 can be effectively isolated. All 4 million of them. The issue here is not voluntary risk since without a massive investment on a support network, which is just not going to happen, most would simply not be able to self-isolate for any length of time.
So back to square one, you’re wrong. It would not work and would increase the duration of the pandemic and the total number of deaths. The results across numerous nations all show essentially the same thing…….to control the virus you need a lockdown supported by social distancing and mask use.
What do you think will happen in a few weeks when the next wave hits ? It’ll either be the same futile repetition or we will finally concede that another strategy is required.
don't wish to derail blowin's statistic point, because he's well onto something there...
and don't wish to rile the righteous one, because we can only use the numbers we have access to...
but when I see these numbers...
US death rate 0.00063
UK death rate 0.00063
(yep they're the same)
Australian death rate 0.000035
So their death rate is 18 times ours. If we had pursued their policies we would have had approximately an extra 15,000 deaths."
I instantly think they are an unfair comparison. as all these places have significantly different geography's. the health system's are vastly different. the travel patterns and populations are vastly different due to above geography's etc, and oz had the massive advantage of much more warning and prep. time ...and we're an island, ...a very big isolated one...
oz had so many advantages, it is very simplistic thinking to say our lower death rate is exclusively due to lockdown, and that we can extrapolate the death rates variance accounts for lockdown versus no lockdown
considering the above, emphasising the point america's health system is seriously lacking and most unequitable, versus england's gold standard NHS (...almost? ...once?) which is much more equitable and pro active
then these numbers show...
"US death rate 0.00063
UK death rate 0.00063"
(using the simplistc logic being used by blindboy)
that donald trump actually did quite a stellar job!
and boris johnson made quite a dog's breakfast of things...
thanks for making that clear blindboy, Im sure you'll agree, ...using your logic and all...
(ok stellar is overstating it, but much better than some would lead us to believe... maybe? )
Well, in my state there hasn't been a second wave. It's been well over a month of no cases. If they can get it right down, then they can get it to a point where it can be managed with quarantine, rigorous contact tracing, travel restrictions and minor changes to personal habits (e.g mask wearing & distancing).
I agree somewhat, you'd really have to look very carefully at another lockdown.
Given that we've seen evidence now of people suffering really lasting ill health, even if they only suffered mildly from corona virus, how do you factor that into the economic costs? We don't even know how long these things are going to last, they could be lifelong, what's the economic cost of that. Not to mention the personal costs to the sufferer and their family.
It's really shortsighted.
That’s where you are wrong again, BB.
The survival rate for the vast majority of the population is 99.98 percent. Assuming that we protect the elderly and assuming they want protecting , this leaves a maximum population of 21 million exposed to the virus which would result in potential deaths of 42,000 people.
But.....no one would ever suggest that 100 percent of the population would catch the virus even if it was free to spread unhindered. So assuming the likely 60 percent infection rate this means we MIGHT have approx 25,000 people lose their lives . This is not in a single year but over the entire course of the virus on present population . Even this figure may be far too high with the adoption of simple social distancing and personal hygiene measures.
This may sound heavy but it’s not out of line with any disease which threatens humanity. We are not immortal. No one wants to die but it is not a horrific suggestion to state that we need to lead our lives as risks are to be expected. If any outcome beyond zero deaths is beyond your tolerance then I’m afraid you’re dealing with a poor conception of human mortality.
If you think the entirety of Australia should remain shuttered and fearfully hidden over this potential loss of life then you’d also better prevent people from driving , smoking , living sedentary lifestyles, surfing , swimming, rock fishing , overeating etc etc
Nothing is more shortsighted than a strategy based on elimination .
This has proven impossible in every instance as soon as regional isolation and containment measures are relinquished.
NZ is back to 55 cases after achieving elimination. You think WA will remain at zero cases when the borders reopen ? You think any future quarantine measures will be perfectly executed ?
Any elimination is temporary. A new strategy needs to be considered.
blowin, we get it, you want to go to the pub, but when the medical experts say it's not safe, just stay at home, get shitfaced, and shitpost on swellnet.
"Any elimination is temporary. A new strategy needs to be considered."
yep, but we're stuck in either/or circular debates
To JQ's point about Australia and our unique position vs almost every other major country/region, I agree on lockdowns working for us. We shut the borders, we shut everything down, and it killed the spread.
Also on whether lockdowns work or not, if I'm looking at nothing else other than Victoria crushing the rising number of cases in July/August in a short period of time in the grand scheme of things, then it's hard to argue they haven't worked for that purpose.
But if, and I pray to god there is no if or when, we do get another rise/wave come our way, how many more lockdowns can we really take? I guess Andrews is shitting himself at that thought hence why he's secretly going for eradication & not suppression.
I also feel blessed to be based in Australia with how we have managed to avoid the major waves of deaths that other countries have had - I just wish if I'm being extra greedy I was a touch luckier and found myself not living in Victoria...
some people are way too invested in lockdowns
and unfortunately its become more about the political than the practical
"Given that we've seen evidence now of people suffering really lasting ill health, even if they only suffered mildly from corona virus, how do you factor that into the economic costs? We don't even know how long these things are going to last, they could be lifelong, what's the economic cost of that. Not to mention the personal costs to the sufferer and their family."
I think this is where the focus should be now. the 'death rates' are so unreliable and concocted they have little meaning left. and even taking them at face value, they just aren't that bad
In terms of death rates, wasn't there data released recently saying aged care deaths are down this year? We've actually saved more lives than normal this year, in the middle of a deadly pandemic. Fair effort.
Although there's also concerns of the rise in other more deadly diseases that will genuinely impact the younger folk (cancer/heart disease etc) with a big drop in screening appointments and check-ups as people fear going to the doctor.
sypkan, My industry has essentially been shut down in Vic due to lockdowns. I could basically scream and shout "freedom" but that would just provide a 2 month (at absolute best) sugar hit.
I'm chuffed about the success of the lockdown. I'm glad the medical experts advice has been taken. It's created hope for summer. I can see a potential for revenue in a month or two. So too can others in the hospo sector.
When I look at the same industry in England, they are 12 months, at a best case scenario, of reopening. Lockdown has given us a chance getting 90% of something reasonable in the short term, while in London they are getting 100% of fuck all for a very long time.
So ya wanna talk practicalities mate?
Blowin, I don't think that lockdowns represent an 'elimination' strategy. They are an extreme control measure. A justified control measure, given the situation in the surrounding states.
It would be different if the virus was running rampant, but it doesn't seem to be.
You're a callous bastard Blowie, 25,000 lives vs probably only a few thousand if we continue of the kind of policies we have been using so far. There will almost certainly be other waves but they should be much more manageable and not require the kind of lockdowns that have been used in Victoria. The main concern at the moment should be to get the testing rate as high as possible. Anyone working in a public contact position should be encouraged to get tested. With high levels of testing outbreaks should be limited and controllable by contact tracing without the need for widespread lockdowns. It is probable that a vaccine will start to become available next year and that is the long term solution. It will not eliminate the virus but will drop the infection rate so low as to end the pandemic.
Your favourite album by any chance?
do you want to continue with rolling lockdowns?
I think this one was fair enough (though somewhat overcooked), but I think most people would say fuck that to doing it again
europe's getting smashed, none of them are talking of going back to hard lockdowns, quite the opposite
do you want to continue with rolling lockdowns?
sypkan, there's going to be some form of restrictions no matter what. They just need to be developed by medical experts not internet warriors. All I want is for people to listen to the medical experts, show some personal responsibility, and have a bit of respect for fellow citizens.
Australia has largely done a good job at this, but fuck me, I simply can't tolerate idiot dude-karens demanding UK / USA freedoms that will fuck things up for so many people. Is that too much to ask?
Dx3 “ But if, and I pray to god there is no if or when, we do get another rise/wave come our way, how many more lockdowns can we really take? ”
I think this is a very important question mate. And I think the answer is no more, we can’t take anymore. This has to be the last one
Goofyfoot, I’m sure as part of their planning they are thinking of this, and coming into summer you’d think we’ll get a breather from a big spike, but I wonder what their threshold is in terms of cases before they jump and go bang, lockdown again. is it 20/30/50 a day? More?
I just hope they throw every bloody resource they can over the summer of ensuring the system is ready to go next Autumn/Winter when this thing probably comes back, and they don’t just crush this now and wait out a vaccine without making significant improvements on our tracing ability.
I really admire NSW holding their nerve in July/August and smashing it back down to zero a day which they’ve had a few times in the last week.
As I predicted on Monday, (must be a Labor staff member/Red Shirt, surely) blowjob and his associate, (must be a Labor staff member/Red Shirt, surely) vic bitter would attempt to coat Dan in sugar and point the finger at Murdoch/Libs/ADF (as any Labor staff member/Red Shirt would). Who would have guessed? Think it's time for these (must be Labor staff members/Red Shirts) nutters to admit defeat and silently fade into the darkness. But as we know, sadly, there's more chance of Dan falling on his sword than that happening.
Once all the emotionalism around people dying wears off, we wont be going into lockdown anymore. Its just not worth it and everybody who is honest about it, knows it
"Once all the emotionalism around people dying wears off..."
billythekid...did you just say dying but actually meant crying!
Coz tbb hasn't stopped crying since he read dying!
tbb is jealous & must ask out of curiosity!
How did you impossibly make that 2nd sentence appear more creepy than the first?
Don't know who gifted you those healing powers billythekid...lay some on me bro!
tbb can bash again...it's a miracle...still crying coz it hurts so good!
Mashed up logic Billy but I hear ya. Funny stuff!
This virus aint goin anywhere but back at us time and time again so we outta get used to it and forget about lockdowns from hereon.
BTW who's been dumping their infected fecal matter in Anglesea?
Apparently they tracked it back to a house in Niblick St.
A certain forum fake tough guy's house?
Speaking of dying and on a personal note- my awesome dad died suddenly in June this year. We went in to overdrive trying to get to Australia to see him off. Within a few days I'd secured all the paperwork necessary as proof, got return tickets, a negative covid test, permission from Japanese immigration to re-enter Japan, a special sub-class of visa for my wife and even permission to cross the border into Qld. At the eleventh hour the CHO, Dr. Jeanette Young denied me an exemption to quarantine at home or to shorten the period in a hotel. Her email was short and sharp- no exemptions, no exceptions. It's awesome to read that you could really have just bribed your way into Qld. if you have the coin. I can't tell you how gut wrenching it was to watch my family online, my poor inconsolable mum, everyone spaced apart, having to listen to my words read out instead of being able to farewell my dad myself. Or that poor girl having an hour alone with her deceased father, under police guard in full HAZMAT gear.
I'm not a selfish person but humanity, commonsense, individual circumstance seems to take a back seat in the face of this fucking virus. Is this the way forward? Fucking masks, plastic barriers, curfews, the threat of fines or maybe imprisonment for trying to lead a normal life?
Dunno what I'm trying to say but two things, I'm so fucking over this flu and Jeanette Young, I will never forgive you you zealous, cold hearted hypocrite.
I’d like to hear someone on here describe the plan for the future which has been put forward by the medical health advisers .
I must have missed where they explained our strategy beyond locking down the healthy and young every few months.
Very sad zen, I think most people would agree that the restrictions on international travel have been unnecessarily harsh and administered unfairly with the wealthy and celebrities able to gain exemptions not available to others.
There is no justification for the cessation of international travel for Australian citizens. The government hasn’t even attempted to explain it as far as I’m aware.
Meanwhile.....160 people from Vanuatu came in to pick fruit and a few hundred international students are either on their way or already here . Just a “ trial pilot program “ mind you....nudge nudge, wink wink.
They all still have to quarantine for two weeks Blowin.
The 160 fruit pickers (NT Mangoes) from Vanuatu, had to initially go straight from the airport to Howard Springs (Covid Camp) for 2 weeks quarantine. The bill was picked up by the growers association (@$2.5k/person).
Same deal will be for the international students, although I believe they have to pay the bill themselves.
I'm cool BB (now).
Just glad JAL gave me back the almost $10k I spent on two last minute tickets back home.
BTW, shout out to the all the public servants federal and state- they were awesome every step of the way for me. Understanding, compassionate, prompt, professional- couldn't fault them, both on a state and federal level, working within the parameters they were under. Like I mentioned, when my case got finally to the last hurdle, after a cursory glance, I was stamped "no entry".
Fitzroy.....why can’t I leave when they are allowed to enter ?
The answer is the government doesn’t want all that job keeper and jobseeker money being spent overseas by the hundreds of thousands of crew on paid government holiday. But I get no government assistance.....let me out Scomo you tubby fuck.
fitzroy - for me it's not that they have to quarantine, it's that they are allowed in at all right now when so many Aussies can't get home themselves. Those 160 fruitpickers, the 300 hundred international students - there are 560 seats that should have been reserved for aussies to come home and not have to pay $10,000 for a one way ticket.
Zen - very sorry to hear mate, absolutely awful. Completely with you on the QLD CHO and just some of the restrictions in general, such a lack of humanity being shown, such cruel heartless decisions considering the welcome mat they have put out for celebrities with money or 400 (!!!!) AFL folk to swan about in their own resort, using all the facilities.
There is a special place in hell for people like Jeanette Young.
Hey, I'm in no way saying it is fair. Just a fact.
The double standards is astounding.
Condolences to you and yours, zen.
“ The NT government was ready to pay half the $2500 per student cost of the two-week quarantine for international students who were studying at Charles Darwin University or other Territory tertiary institutions.”
And when it says the government pays, what that should really say is, the taxpayers pay.
"“ The NT government was ready to pay half the $2500 per student cost of the two-week quarantine for international students who were studying at Charles Darwin University or other Territory tertiary institutions.”
No doubt after a careful calculation of the net economic benefit of each student showing that these benefits far exceeded the $2500. Probably a good investment during a downturn.