New Victoria restrictions

And yeah link from above:

https://www.news.com.au/travel/australian-holidays/nsw-act/plan-to-intro...

speechless...

I hope the local peons would have some plans to disrupt their Elysium

The instigators need to have their oxygen supply privatised and operated on a paid meter.

No coin....no breathing.

“Amalfi Beach Club” - hahaha!

Very dangerous precedent though if it goes through.
The Med’s a horror show because of all the beach clubs but that’s the capitalist dream - if you don’t have money, fuck off.

VJ....restrictions for their relatives.

If that sounds like an imposition then consider that this would mean that restrictions are probably impacting less than 1 percent of those currently impacted .

Yo Blowin, 1790 Bellarine Hwy. Marcus Hill Vic. 3222
Any time you want to take a shot at the title just knock on the door and introduce yourself. Easy to make threats online.

I’m not threatening anyone. Just trying to introduce a bit of mutual respect which is long overdue.

You got a problem with that ? *

* joke...get it ?

You're a bad man adam12. That's the address of the Bandidos club house. Don't listen to him blowin.

VJ - enjoy your posts as always.

Interesting your comment about speaking to regional folk you know and their take on it all. What seems really clear right now is the Melbourne/Regional bubble will be in place for a while yet beyond Oct 19, regardless of any under 5 case per day average, but at what point does Dan drop it? He's said a few times he's looking at trying to get as normal a Christmas as we can.

Does that mean in their minds we could be looking at releasing the metro/regional restriction just in time for summer? Would they want to unleash the masses right at that point it will be the absolute busiest it ever is, schools over, offices shutup and everyone literally goes on summer holidays and flocks to the regions? Odd move if it is their plan.

Hi Dx3, that's a distinct possibility (bubble remaining). He's said all along they go by the numbers, which are dropping and Melbourne average dropping. Is there a November date they were aiming for? Regardless, I think you will get some form of change on the 19th.

If the metro/regional barrier is released at summer holidays juncture, it will be absolute madness down here (assume no/very few infections and good contact tracers) - the madness just being people enjoying their summer. Look to WA where holiday accommodation got completely booked out well in advance. Many that can not travel overseas will want something nice by the sea (Amalfi Beach club lol)
And for everyone else, they've been through so much, they are definitely staying a week, or doing a day trip often. It's going to be busy.

Each year got busier over the last 5, until last season. Our fam reckoned activity (business - but by inference people, crowded beach days) was down about 20% in 2019. I can imagine it at 150% of 2017 for example... There were days, many years ago, when my youngest was learning and I'd take him for a surf and we literally had to walk zig zag between people's towels to get to the water. There have been days where you can't get a park 5 streets east of Back Beach to get to the water, and it's easier to cycle a board to the surf, or walk along the coast.

Also, little waves + heeeaps of people = floaty boards. A foam float arms race. Be prepared. An observation is that most people taking up surfing are headed to the longboard side of things, so anticipate this. They might not have complete control, but they've got paddle.

If other states open up to Vic, an already busy summer will be increased in NSW/QLD and maybe heading west out into SA as well. But we don't know this one yet.

I think gov would be fine releasing everyone into the busiest time, hopefully they will forget all the virus lockdown drama! Gov will be quietly relieved.

DX3 would also be an odd move to unleash 5mill melburnians into the covid-free MP and Yarra on Oct 19th rather than spread the load around the state. Hence why I think both the regional border and some sort of distance restriction will be kept in place (or they fully open her up and hope for the best)

The other thing is keep an eye out for people in trouble as well. You might get people taking their picnic away from flagged busy beaches if it's really manic, but not being strong swimmers - at many spots away from the towns. Have heard rescue stories where the rescuer was just driving past, luckily had a board in the car. We did one rescue last season, 2 kids out of their depth and getting worked, flags had come down about 1/2hr before, we were the only surfers who saw them.

geek that's a good point you make, and perhaps why they are being so cagey on the 5km restriction on Oct 19, who knows. If it's not all of Vic at once then heaven help those 'regional' areas within Metro Melbourne, will be a shit show of people everywhere.

At least some solace is that if by some long-shot chance borders for VIC's do open up, it'll all be one way traffic out of this state so that could ease the load, I can't imagine any interstate crew wanting to come visit Victoria anytime soon.

Dan Andrews today, saying "it's highly unlikely that nothing will change on Oct 19" meaning that some restrictions will be lifted. As to which ones, who knows yet.

What is as clear as ever is, ignore the roadmap. It is now a document that is completely redundant and they may as well not issue one, despite the cries for people wanting to see a plan for how we get out of this. They are now just making it up as the days roll on, and anything written down and shared is irrelevant.

Yeah it's pretty funny when you think about it Dx3.

This will fly under the radar a bit as we're still easing restrictions...just maybe not by quite as much.

This is as you would say a classic public service move. Essentially create roadmap and framework, which is quickly made redundant and ignored. Waste of time and money.

In any case, it was a stupid road map to begin with as it was way too ambitious.

Still holding out for when I can ceremoniously burn my face masks.

Imagine being a small business owner through this thing and trying to make sense of Andrews and his crew with their roadmaps. We can whinge about not being able to get out and do stuff/surf etc, but I'm not sure how I would still be going if I couldn't re-open my business whilst I sit back and watch mainly union based businesses get back to work.

Victoria must be on it's way to becoming a ghost state. Quite a few small regional towns up my way have now sold out of all available real estate, houses and vacant land. The agents have told me most are from Vic and many are bought sight unseen.

Same thing where I am, a continuation of the Byron effect and a Covid inspired flight from the cities.
House I'm renting was put on the market a few days ago, big block but the house is a knock-down job, expected to fetch 1.5 or 1.6mill.
And the younger crew were despondent before Covid.

"Imagine being a small business owner through this thing and trying to make sense of Andrews and his crew with their roadmaps... I'm not sure how I would still be going if I couldn't re-open my business"
Dx3. I'm a small business owner and my industry has been decimated by Covid. The absolute last thing our industry needs is for restrictions to ease too quickly. Here's the rub mate, if we were allowed to reopen with 20-30 new cases a day, it's absolutely guaranteed that infection numbers would rise sharply in a month or two, and we'd be fucked for another six months. Sure there's a few loud mouth idiots in the industry demanding no restrictions, but they are the minority. It's shit, but most of the industry don't blame Andrews and support the restrictions. To demand reopening is myopic in the extreme.

VL - I'm talking about opening up a bit, with covid safe plans. Not unleashing all the restrictions & shackles, but allowing business owners to be smart about it. The most responsible people in this will be small business owners, they will want to do absolutely everything in their power to keep a lid on this whilst still being able to trade in some way shape or form. 3 of my closet mates are in this boat, hospo operators (pub / cafe / restaurant). They are on the brink of mental breakdowns, they just want to get back to it, as I said not fully open, but open up a bit and safely.

The way Dan has let union sites go back, it's as if he has full confidence in them to input a covid-safe plan, but nobody else.

Also he's also sending all school kids back. The focus right now should be on getting the economy ticking along. I know how tough kids have had it this year, but them going back ain't gonna do much for the economy is it?

"Victoria must be on it's way to becoming a ghost state. Quite a few small regional towns up my way have now sold out of all available real estate, houses and vacant land. The agents have told me most are from Vic and many are bought sight unseen."

The same effect is also being seen where i live in coastal Vic, im hearing the property sales market is hot and rentals get taken as soon as they are listed because of demand from people from Melbourne moving down.

I think it's also the effect of people having to work from home where possible that you expect has made workplaces more flexible, so even if we go back to a normal they can either work from home full time or only need to go into their workplaces a few days a week.

AndyM - going to be very interesting to see how property market in regional areas react that's for sure. It'll be a boom for regional property no doubt, but whilst those working from home in office gigs may consider heading out of the city for good, anyone with school aged kids may still be tied to stay closer into the city/burbs due to that.

Me personally, I have commenced the real estate search out of town, but my kids are a bit away from school just yet so could manage the move. Always been keen to farewell the burbs, this has been the kick I needed. Fuck all for sale right now though so you'd be paying a premium.

Dx3. You're right in some ways but you're still hoping businesses put safety ahead of dollars.
There's some industries that can't reopen safely. Think music festivals, nightclubs, bus tours. Others, like cafes are problematic. Kilmore shows that no matter how well prepared a cafe is to follow the rules, one dickhead can cause huge problems. I've said it before, the cost of reopening too soon is so big, I'm happy to err on the side of caution.

Dx3 - Yeah a boom in some ways but a continuing shame in other ways as what I call 'economic cleansing' continues - if you haven't got the cash you can fuck right off to Casino and beyond.
I just had a look on realestate.com, seems like there's not much for sale in the Ballina area.
Even with a fair sort of deposit you're still looking at $500+ per week in mortgage repayments which is a shit-load if you're on the median income of maybe a grand a week before tax.

It seems the corona borders don't exist if you've got the cash to keep the Great Australian Dream ticking upward in median price.

I know of crew who have left Melbourne, just sold up and gone interstate. That is a thing you can do. And Melbourne crew who are building down here so moved down early. And those listings that just got sold, are immediately peopled. I guess you can do that too.

Real estate is by all reports as busy as it possibly can be under lockdown on the MP too. A quick search shows sweet fuck all 4 bed family homes under $700k, very different to a few yrs ago when I bought. A colleague of mine has switched his house search from Northcote to Mt Martha due to covid. We will only need to be in city 1-2 days a week when things go back to normal, our company going all in with wfh (IT projects industry)

" I'm a small business owner and my industry has been decimated by Covid. The absolute last thing our industry needs is for restrictions to ease too quickly. Here's the rub mate, if we were allowed to reopen with 20-30 new cases a day, it's absolutely guaranteed that infection numbers would rise sharply in a month or two, and we'd be fucked for another six months."

VL this is why the Kilmore cafe owner is an eye opening case, she did everything "right" but still made the eventual decision to close the business after the infection. Staff off and isolating, cashflows stopped. Reputation? I hope the community backs her when she does reopen as she made good choices the whole way through.

Over 18,000 cases in France overnight, Marseilles and Paris to go to lockdowns (not sure of form), dining/eating out being restricted in Bucharest, Brussels and Scotland... Winter and corona are back in Europe.

Sounds like you are in a good place Geek. I'm updating a very old Linux system this arvo, finding it quite relaxing tbh

VJ, geek and myself are all working on IT projects. Ha Ha, I bet nobody picked us three for nerds.

The ruthless and relentless gentrification of the Aussie coast is almost complete.

They tell me Drake is nice.

here you go VL

I’d like to wager if VL had a dollar for every time he’s sadistically asked a punter having computer problems “have you tried shutting down and rebooting yet?” he’d be a multi millionaire by now .....

Spent the arvo in some pretty neat deliverance country near dorrigo Andy.

Yeh geek my company is the same. We were ok when it came to flexible working as they call it, but hadn’t fully embraced it. Now our policies have been updated and it’s basically choose your own adventure when it comes to how and where you work. We are in a competitive industry for talent, so they know to attract people now they gotta embrace this flex work business, Covid or no Covid. Just happy I didn’t dump $1.3-4 million into a middle ring suburb in the months leading up to this. I reckon those areas will be hit hardest as people seek that sea change they have always dreamed of. Or even worse, anyone owning an inner city high rise apartment, you’ll be holding onto that for years now if you don’t want to cop a loss.

Also on real estate hunting, a mate who is looking down MP way made a good point on a cheat strategy to get out of your 5km radius on a Saturday... book in to go inspect a property haha Legal way to go for a day trip if you’re inspecting properties within the metro bubble (still can’t go regional though).

I'm interested to hear about it FR, that stretch of country from say, the Gwydir Hwy down to the road from Urunga to Ebor is epic.
Love the rivers down there, my hybrid white water kayak is turning up soon and that stretch of the Nymboida from Platypus Flat to The Junction is top of the list.
Also loads of National Parks and state forests, free camping, cheap real estate and honest country folk :)

Only one thing (maybe two) missing and we know what those are.

Go you halves in this https://www.realestate.com.au/property-mixed+farming-nsw-buccarumbi-7000...

Very suss Supa!
Exterminate the political vermin.

dictator dan better hurry up and get on with doing whatever it is he is doing...

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backfli...

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/10/07/great-barrington-declaration-soluti...

times up, the world - and science - is moving on...

(gonna be hard for some of the zealots on here to accept, ...but seems lockdowns are done...)

Really interesting backflip from the WHO here. It must have been compelling for an organisation that big to be able to change tack from what was a pretty entrenched position. They've clearly got more info around later strains of the virus being not as deadly too

entrenched is the word

...but, their backflips are improving...

masters games for tedros next year

A number of medical or public health scientists and medical practitioners have signed the Great Barrington Declaration, which states that “current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.”

The signatories include: “Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University and a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations, Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.”

“The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk,” the declaration states.

The fear mongers will now be furiously googling the medical experts cited in an attempt to besmirch their expertise with an ad hominem attack.

Do the fear mongers ever delve into the backgrounds of those who support their fear mongering desire to lock down society like East Germany in 1965 ? No . They do not want to threaten the legitimacy of their emotions based authoritarian ideology and have no interest in determining whether it is based on any factual evidence.

I imagine Dan may already have his response ready to the latest statement from the WHO along with all those doctors with expertise in bio-medicine & infectious diseases, response to be something along the lines of "with all due respect to the WHO and those world leading experts, we will do what I want."

But that all said, it would appear the writing is on the wall anyway for Victoria's hard lockdown, as it appears some genuine restriction easing is coming this weekend regardless of our 14 day average (which by the way is going back up as the tracing capability can't get on top of 2 clusters). Even Dan himself said the 5km rule is under consideration for this weekend, which to me means it'll go. Dan's a tyrant, but he's not so stupid as to dangle that carrot out there and then not follow through. Whether it's gone completely for Metro Melb, or just expanded to 10-20km, wait & see I guess.

Seriously blowin STFU.
The anti-lockdown bullshit has to stop.
You are advocating for a European / US situation. You show a callous disregard for your fellow humans and this idea that the economy will recover when infection rates inevitably soar is idiotic in the extreme.
You are a menace.

Calling in from WA we’ prefer if the rest of the country stayed locked out. Sure there’s a few dorks demanding lifting restrictions but WA is ok and we’d prefer you stay away.

So you think your hospitality industry job qualifies you to contradict the WHO’s official stance ?

I think you should be arrested for spreading fear through the population. At the very least you should be put naked in the stocks and a large horny stallion provoked into mating with you as the public throws rotten fruit.

Perhaps you should go to the Doctor and ask for an X Ray to check whether you have a spine or not. There might be a physical explanation for your outrageous level of irrational fear.

Vic Local ( in whiny anguished voice ) : “ Won’t anyone think of the obese nonagenarian chain smokers with multiple comorbidities who’ve already outlived the average life span ? “

Vic Local - with the Aussies borders still shut and likely to remain shut (with quarantine for those who do arrive), and the now very low transmission numbers everywhere in the country, with majority seeing 0 transmission and Victoria down to single digits, could it be fair to assume that we won't see a blow up like the US or Europe? The US with their enormous population and completely lax control measures, and Europe with their still open-border stance, are a very very different proposition to this country.

Obviously there's always some risk, but I don't think an easing of restrictions in this country would cause a blow-up like we are seeing overseas, not anymore. Lockdowns had a purpose and have served that purpose. Now I know what I think is irrelevant, but I'm just putting it out there.

Did you paint yourself orange and engage in some role playing of a certain leader?