COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Germany having a 4th wave...lots of unvaxed deaths funnily enough.
Nothing to see here said the stupid.

blindboy wrote:

You are probably more familiar with the citation data than me but doesn't it show that relatively few papers dominate?

Yes and this is actually a very interesting question and raises a number of issues of quite a bad practices in academia.

Citations in academic papers are powerful tools and "weapons" to increase the chances of a paper being published.

It makes sense to pad one's paper with citations of papers published by the journal's editorial team, whenever possible.

It also makes sense to nominate as eternal examiners for one's paper people you think will most likely recommend that one's paper be published, namely one's own "mates" and research colleagues and more importantly the "mates" and research colleagues of journal editors while padding one’s paper with citations of papers by these colleagues.

More generally, at any moment in time there are research fashion trends in a given area of academic research, which are largely set by editorial teams since they have the main say in what gets published in their journals.

In order to get research published, it pays to do research within the current fashion trend. You just have to tow the line to get published.

So, it makes sense to do research within the current fashion trend and cite papers from editors and their research teams and colleagues...

Yes this overall practice tends to create a concentration of research citations, but due to politics.

It’s all just a game.

john_c wrote:

blindboy wrote:

Well that's a modest proposal. Just retructure global media! How about we declare world peace at the same time? From my perspective, while there are always issues of bias at some level the core issue is that many people have become so completely intolerant of opposing views that they are enraged to even encounter them and worse, believe that any attempt to explain or justify them must be the part of some heinous global conspiracy by "big pharma" or Bill Gates or ..........(enter favourite bogeyman). They then go on a hunt to find some source to support their view spawning an entire ecosystem.of disinformation, in many cases funded by those who stand to benefit in some way from it. Still you have to admire the work ethic of those who spend all day every day in a state of complete scepticism about everything but their distorted vision of reality.

Pretty much sums up the anti vax nutjobs on here. Entertaining though!

When reading the above post it’s best to recall that Blindboy accused me of being a bot and a paid Russian troll because I laughed at his repeated and still unrelenting assertions that Donald Trump was a puppet of Vladimir Putin. Just so you know exactly which side of the fence he sits on with regards to fantastical notions of vast international conspiracies and the profiteers who construct and sustain such ridiculous tales.

gsco .....but from what I know an intensely competitive one in which researchers have a vested interest in finding flaws in their competitor's work. A relative of mine was involved in the funding selection process for a large government entity and that was very much his view.

Roadkill wrote:

Germany having a 4th wave...lots of unvaxed deaths funnily enough.
Nothing to see here said the stupid.

Healthy people are extremely unlikely to die irrespective of vaccination status. Whilst the ill and the elderly are still vulnerable irrespective of vaccination status.

Yeh but it is all in the detail. The healthy vaccinated have a near zero risk of dying while the vaccinated elderly greatly reduce their chance of dying. On a population level these differences add up to significant numbers even before factoring in the greater rate of infection from the unvaccinated. Given this ground has been covered ad infinitum.here and elsewhere, why do you feel the need to go there again?

Ah blindboy and roadkill still flogging the dead horse..

Which dead horse would that be shortlegs? That vaccination is overwhemingly effective against infection?

Your immune system is also science. Just not the revenue generating kind that blindboy & roadkill blindly trust. My health is my responsibility, your health is yours, not an injection from a BILLION dollar industry.

Blowin wrote:

Roadkill wrote:

Germany having a 4th wave...lots of unvaxed deaths funnily enough.
Nothing to see here said the stupid.

Healthy people are extremely unlikely to die irrespective of vaccination status. Whilst the ill and the elderly are still vulnerable irrespective of vaccination status.

Right on cue...idiot #1...misses the point as per usual.

It's the capacity of the health system to service other requirements. Chronic disease management, pain management, exploratory investigation for cancers, car accidents, sports accidents, general emergency cases etc etc.

I can tell you now, princess snowflake (everone he knows dies or is sick from vaccines, Shorty and burlrigh....would be the first in line screaming and whining like little bitches if anyone in their bubble was refused medical care or sent home from the er if the health system reached capacity here in Aus.

Burleigh...will you refuse treatment and medication if you fall over with a heart attack? You know, that medication the billion dollar industry developed and supplies? You woukd be happy to be left alone...with your health?

burleigh wrote:

My health is my responsibility

Never needed a doctor, mate? Never been to a hospital either?

If you answered 'yes' to either of those questions then your statement above suddenly gets very murky.

'Your health' begins to rely on other people.

Ergo, you're a part of society whether you like it or not.

Ah roadkill, wrong again. Firstly don't fall for this hospital overload campaign. You fell for that back in Feb 2020 and you are doing it again.. They've had two years to invest in our health system and instead they've steered billions of dollars offshore to Pfizer et al and have let 1000's of frontline health workers go by enforcing their experimental medicine. They are backing a single horse and that horse is as dead as fried chicken.. The media just aren't eluding to it... Yet. But if these pesky emergency declarations do come to an end and the pollies can't blackmail their way through with more extensions, you will see the other side is safe and free and you are not the feeble shell of a human with no power that you keep telling yourself you are.

"Firstly don't fall for this hospital overload campaign"

So my daughter who works in a majoer Sydney hospital has been lying to me? No mate you're full of shit....as usual.

Stunet, there's nothing murky about that statement. That is the most profound statement to be made. Say it 10 times. But I do agree you do rely on other ppl ate some point. Its just that the ppl your govt wants you to rely on aren't always those who can truly help you, not over the long term at least. Where's the support for naturopaths, massage, yoga, meditation, therapy, those more holistic therapies. Its obvious its a one horse race.

Shorty's comeback..is as uninformed as usual. Internet keyboard warrior vs health professionals....sorry mate...I will listen to those on the frontlines over your delusions

I'm not disputing she's busy. You aren't the only one on the planet who has a relative in EU of a major hospital..

And you've missed the point.. The point is they have had 2 years to fix it but have turned their back on it.. Why? Because they are only interested in getting jabs in the arms.

However...keep up the posts, Shorty. They are good for a laugh.

stunet wrote:

burleigh wrote:

My health is my responsibility

Never needed a doctor, mate? Never been to a hospital either?

If you answered 'yes' to either of those questions then your statement above suddenly gets very murky.

'Your health' begins to rely on other people.

Ergo, you're a part of society whether you like it or not.

Of course i have needed a doctor. However i take full responsibility for my health. I don't drink, i don't smoke i exercise daily, as do my kids. We eat mostly whole foods to minimise our risk. I don't rely on big pharma to make me "healthy" my daily choices do when i get out of bed.

What have you done to minimise your risk?

"I'm not disputing she's busy." That would be laughable if it wasn't so sad.

blindboy wrote:

"Firstly don't fall for this hospital overload campaign"

So my daughter who works in a majoer Sydney hospital has been lying to me? No mate you're full of shit....as usual.

Hospitals are in overload because nurses have been fired for not complying with the jab mandates, also adverse reactions. Why else would the WA hospital system be overloaded?

burleigh wrote:

stunet wrote:

burleigh wrote:

My health is my responsibility

Never needed a doctor, mate? Never been to a hospital either?

If you answered 'yes' to either of those questions then your statement above suddenly gets very murky.

'Your health' begins to rely on other people.

Ergo, you're a part of society whether you like it or not.

Of course i have needed a doctor. However i take full responsibility for my health. I don't drink, i don't smoke i exercise daily, as do my kids. We eat mostly whole foods to minimise our risk. I don't rely on big pharma to make me "healthy" my daily choices do when i get out of bed.

What have you done to minimise your risk?

"I don't rely on big pharma to make me "healthy" my daily choices do when i get out of bed."
Not a big thinker are you, burleigh. The bigger picture is above your understanding.

"Hospitals are in overload because nurses have been fired for not complying with the jab mandates..."

No they were busy before that even happened because their ICUs were so full of covid patients. I have no knowledge of what is happening in WA.

Roadkill wrote:

burleigh wrote:

stunet wrote:

burleigh wrote:

My health is my responsibility

Never needed a doctor, mate? Never been to a hospital either?

If you answered 'yes' to either of those questions then your statement above suddenly gets very murky.

'Your health' begins to rely on other people.

Ergo, you're a part of society whether you like it or not.

Of course i have needed a doctor. However i take full responsibility for my health. I don't drink, i don't smoke i exercise daily, as do my kids. We eat mostly whole foods to minimise our risk. I don't rely on big pharma to make me "healthy" my daily choices do when i get out of bed.

What have you done to minimise your risk?

"I don't rely on big pharma to make me "healthy" my daily choices do when i get out of bed."
Not a big thinker are you, burleigh. The bigger picture is above your understanding.

I think it pretty clear Blindboy, i dont think you understand mate

Roadkill wrote:

Burleigh...will you refuse treatment and medication if you fall over with a heart attack? You know, that medication the billion dollar industry developed and supplies? You woukd be happy to be left alone...with your health?

I have made sensible choices to minimise my risk of a heart attack Roadkill, the food that i eat, i don't drink, my exercise routine. What about you?

burleigh wrote:

stunet wrote:

burleigh wrote:

My health is my responsibility

Never needed a doctor, mate? Never been to a hospital either?

If you answered 'yes' to either of those questions then your statement above suddenly gets very murky.

'Your health' begins to rely on other people.

Ergo, you're a part of society whether you like it or not.

Of course i have needed a doctor. However i take full responsibility for my health. I don't drink, i don't smoke i exercise daily, as do my kids. We eat mostly whole foods to minimise our risk. I don't rely on big pharma to make me "healthy" my daily choices do when i get out of bed.

What have you done to minimise your risk?

I got the jab as soon as I could. Wife did too. We also limit who we'll be around, at least we have done that though local cases are dropping almost to zero. Perhaps it was paranoia but it seemed best practice.

Reason being is because we have immuno-compromised twins. Since they were born we've done everything we can to develop their lungs from swimming to breathing exercises to mineral supplements and a healthy diet - they have the healthiest diet out of anyone in their year at school.

Our whole family is healthy, however I'm acutely aware how vulnerable our boys are. The stats don't present them as a large risk, though their odds are significantly greater than others their age.

Also, at the end of the day, I'm not arguing for a concept. I've got skin in the game.

Lastly, you say "i take full responsibility for my health" but then admit going to hospital or visiting doctors. So therefore you don't take full responsibility.

No ifs or buts about it. You're a member of society like everyone else, and you use the safety net like everyone else.

Saying otherwise is hypocrisy.

Probably not burleigh since I am not sure what your point is. We all know that looking after our health is wise and helps reduce the risk of a serious case of the disease and may even reduce the risk of infection. What you do not understand is that no level of good health can give you 100% protection......which you can come pretty close to if you add a vaccination into the mix.

Burleigh should change his name to Mullumbimby. :)

stunet wrote:

burleigh wrote:

stunet wrote:

burleigh wrote:

My health is my responsibility

Never needed a doctor, mate? Never been to a hospital either?

If you answered 'yes' to either of those questions then your statement above suddenly gets very murky.

'Your health' begins to rely on other people.

Ergo, you're a part of society whether you like it or not.

Of course i have needed a doctor. However i take full responsibility for my health. I don't drink, i don't smoke i exercise daily, as do my kids. We eat mostly whole foods to minimise our risk. I don't rely on big pharma to make me "healthy" my daily choices do when i get out of bed.

What have you done to minimise your risk?

I got the jab as soon as I could. Wife did too. We also limit who we'll be around, at least we have done that and may do it for a bit longer. Perhaps it's paranoia but right now it seems best practice.

Reason being is because we have immuno-compromised twins. Since they were born we've done everything we can to develop their lungs from swimming to breathing exercises to mineral supplements and a healthy diet - they have the healthiest diet out of anyone in their year at school.

Our whole family is healthy, however I'm acutely aware how vulnerable our boys are. The stats don't present them as a large risk, though their odds are significantly greater than others their age.

Also, at the end of the day, I'm not arguing for a concept. I've got skin in the game.

Lastly, you say "i take full responsibility for my health" but then admit going to hospital or visiting doctors. So therefore you don't take full responsibility.

No ifs or buts about it.

You've made the right choice for your family. That's how it should be.

Back to me visiting a doctor. In the last 10 years i have been twice, to get stitches both times from Surfing. I have not been admitted to hospital or seen doctors for bad health/habbit choices, which i believe is the real pandemic if you look at the statistics from heart disease patients etc

Found out yesterday another fella i know is laid up at the moment from blood clotting after taking AZ.
That takes it to 4 people i know personally who've had severe adverse reactions to the vaccines. 2 under 50, 2 over 50. One a nurse.
I still don't personally know anybody that's had covid. Could be just the bubble i live in but it does seem like an oddly weighted snapshot.

bluediamond wrote:

Found out yesterday another fella i know is laid up at the moment from blood clotting after taking AZ.
That takes it to 4 people i know personally who've had severe adverse reactions to the vaccines. 2 under 50, 2 over 50. One a nurse.
I still don't personally know anybody that's had covid. Could be just the bubble i live in but it does seem like an oddly weighted snapshot.

My uncle in VIC had a stoke after AZ, My Mother in law in NSW also had a stroke after AZ. Both over 50.

burleigh wrote:

bluediamond wrote:

Found out yesterday another fella i know is laid up at the moment from blood clotting after taking AZ.
That takes it to 4 people i know personally who've had severe adverse reactions to the vaccines. 2 under 50, 2 over 50. One a nurse.
I still don't personally know anybody that's had covid. Could be just the bubble i live in but it does seem like an oddly weighted snapshot.

My uncle in VIC had a stoke after AZ, My Mother in law in NSW also had a stroke after AZ. Both over 50.

That's nothing, I personally know 7 people who have died from the vaccine. 4 strokes, 2 heart attacks, and a spontaneous combustion. I also personally know a bloke who's dick fell off after getting AZ. It wasn't fatal but required extensive plastic surgery and a bunch of viagra to get it working again.

Geez that's awful. Sorry to hear that Burleigh. Hoping they recover fully.

VL, there's nothing for me to gain by making things up. Take it or leave it. Just passing on information.

bluediamond wrote:

VL, there's nothing for me to gain by making things up. Take it or leave it. Just passing on information.

Oh come on...

Temet nosce and all that.

You've been arguing in one direction since it started, so of course you've got something to gain. About as much as the other five million people arguing on the internet.

Geez stu. If i say I know 4 people who've had adverse reactions and none who've had covid, im an anti Vax villain? Just stating a fact as I found out last night and was pretty rattled to hear a good dude is in a bad way.

How sad is it that people’s personal catastrophes are unflinchingly referred to as lies by complete strangers on the internet purely because the internet clowns have decided they will adopt a certain belief and anything which contradicts this belief is a lie.

This is their stance :

“ If there was more serious side effects we would hear about them, therefore when others tell me the serious side effects they experience they are obviously lying because if there was serious side effects I’d have heard about them by now.”

It’s weird twisted circuitous lies they tell themselves to protect the tenuous house of bullshit they reside within. Perhaps the most ironic thing ever?

It’d be funny if it wasn’t people’s misfortune they were blithely dismissing as lies because the truth offends their beliefs. Not so funny when it’s people you know and love who’ve suffered and some gronk is free to claim your all-too-real horror story as bullshit.

That’s not really an internet thing…..just a everyday dickhead thing. If they weren’t talking their shit on the internet they’d be saying it down the shops/ at the beach/ at the pub.

+1 to that blowie

I could also tell you that I know of no-one on the coast where I live who's had an adverse reaction but, like an ant that thinks his nest is the whole world, it means diddly squat against the population of Australia.

And I'm not the least surprised when people who do raise those statistics find them in favour of the stance they've already stated.

Blowin wrote:

How sad is it that people’s personal catastrophes are unflinchingly referred to as lies by complete strangers on the internet purely because the internet clowns have decided they will adopt a certain belief and anything which contradicts this belief is a lie.

This is their stance :

“ If there was more serious side effects we would hear about them, therefore when others tell me the serious side effects they experience they are obviously lying because if there was serious side effects I’d have heard about them by now.”

It’s weird twisted circuitous lies they tell themselves to protect the tenuous house of bullshit they reside within. Perhaps the most ironic thing ever?

It’d be funny if it wasn’t people’s misfortune they were blithely dismissing as lies because the truth offends their beliefs. Not so funny when it’s people you know and love who’ve suffered and some gronk is free to claim your all-too-real horror story as bullshit.

That’s not really an internet thing…..just a everyday dickhead thing. If they weren’t talking their shit on the internet they’d be saying it down the shops/ at the beach/ at the pub.

100%

@stu, the guy lives in Burleigh. He used to do my ocean rescue updates. Was talking to my old boss in Byron yesterday who told me. Just for context.

stunet wrote:

I could also tell you that I know of no-one on the coast where I live who's had an adverse reaction but, like an ant that thinks his nest is the whole world, it means diddly squat against the population of Australia.

And I'm not the least surprised when people who do raise those statistics find them in favour of the stance they've already stated.

Could be true that nobody has, however people are also not coming forward because they are not being heard and people like VicLocal will attack.

But to say that you believe its safe because you or anybody you know hasnt had an adverse reaction is like saying Russian roulette is safe because you played and you were fine. That's gaslighting.

Stu…I know of several people on your coast who’ve had serious reactions.

Wow a one in one hundred thousand chance of getting a blood clot from AZ and we now have how many cases as close contacts of posters here? What was it 6 cases between two posters who both have a record of being anti-vaxxers. Give me a break!

Whoops update! With a third poster, yes coincidentally another anti-vaxxer, we are nearing double figures.

Not anti vax bb. Im pro health. For everyone.

burleigh wrote:

stunet wrote:

I could also tell you that I know of no-one on the coast where I live who's had an adverse reaction but, like an ant that thinks his nest is the whole world, it means diddly squat against the population of Australia.

And I'm not the least surprised when people who do raise those statistics find them in favour of the stance they've already stated.

Could be true that nobody has, however people are also not coming forward because they are not being heard and people like VicLocal will attack.

But to say that you believe its safe because you or anybody you know hasnt had an adverse reaction is like saying Russian roulette is safe because you played and you were fine. That's gaslighting.

No, like I said last page, my wife and I studied this as if our son's lives were on the line. She's a researcher and used to be a shit-hot lawyer that'd give King Solomon a run in the Wisdom Stakes. I trust her immensely. We left emotion at the front door and looked at every contingency and counter-contingency.

Perhaps you haven't realised it yet, but that last statement of yours. You're doing EXACTLY the same thing but from the other direction. So is BD, so is Blowin.

It's terrible what happened to Blowin's family member but any right thinking person realises that's a survey of one. You can't seriously form an opinion around it. Can't even form an opinion from what's happened in your town or region - that's just more echo chamber shit. Fall for that at your peril.

Only medical statistics bear out the results. You either believe them or you don't. With certain caveats and nuance in place, I happen to believe them.

Whatever blokes. Serious side effects from the vaccine do happen but they are incredibly rare. Now the side effects are known, there's very good warnings, and treatment for adverse reactions is very effective in the vast majority of cases. Myocarditis is not a major problem anymore because we know it happens and doctors know how to treat it.
Those few people who do have an unusually bad reaction to the vaccine must be incredibly popular because it seems every anti-vax twat on the internet "personally knows" them.
Maybe if the anti-vax mob didn't bullshit so much about ICUs filling up with vaccine patients, the vaccine being poison, the vaccine being experimental etc etc, I might take them seriously when they "personally know 4-8 people who died / got seriously sick from the vaccine".

@stu, I also have good friends in high places doing immense amounts of research. Also impartial but worried for their own kids. Their research reveals some worrying trends.
I gotta go to work so will allow my comments to b picked apart by the vultures.
One thing I think we could agree on, is we all just want the best for mankind, whatever slant our views take.

The whole point is that the medical statistics are being juiced.

When my Mum went to hospital the Doctors failed to register the event as a Covid reaction despite them saying it to us at the time that it was a reaction to the vaccine.

She also suffered from several ongoing side effects from the first jab which she alerted her GP about because the hospital report failed to even mention the vaccine in their report (!) . Her new GP contested the link between the jab and what happened to her despite not being present during the episode at any point. Some of my mum’s side effects started to resolve themselves between the first and second jab, only to return with force with the second jab. It was only then that my mum’s GP started to accept what had happened.

Then there’s the fact that either the stats are juiced or I just happen to be within a degree or two of every single vaccine reaction which has occurred in the Southern Hemisphere. Credible, reliable people I know telling me about themselves and others they know personally.

It seems there is a culture of dismissal and denial amongst the medical fraternity as this has happened in other instances that I’m aware of.

I don’t believe the vaccine reaction statistics anymore than I believe the employment statistics…..why would you? The government has a story it wants to tell and that’s the story you are going to hear.