COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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chin Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 2:28pm

I think there’s some confusion about doctors reporting side effects. Of course they can report any adverse reactions, not sure exactly to what body, drug company, health dept. or whatever but they certainly can and do. Don’t confuse that with “reporting” anything publicly ie in the media. I think they were muzzled to some degree going back a while, if they were affiliated with a public owned health dept. but independent doctors or nurses can report whatever they want publicly.

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 2:33pm

"Haha far out Vic tell us how you really feel mate!"
Hi McFace, I actually have a tiny bit of sympathy for cookers who have gone down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole. Covid has been a tough time for many people, and they've responded by pulling out the victim card and looking for excuses. Conspiracy theorists start out as scared, vulnerable people and then they get sucked in.
The people I truly loathe and have real contempt for are the string pullers and grifters making a buck from this entire shit show. Turds like Monica Smit, Bernie Finn, Palmer, and Avi the wife basher are some of the worst human beings on the planet.
Those people in the street in Melbourne have been utterly played by these bad faith actors who have weaponised ignorance. There's a reason why dogs like Scumo never criticise the anti (insert cause here) mob. He's the main beneficiary.

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burleigh Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 2:36pm
blindboy wrote:

So what's the problem with the letter? It states the obvious, doctors are responsible for the advice they give their patients and may be held to account if it is contrary to well established evidence. The same applies to public statements made as a medical practitioner.

The problem is that a professional Doctor can be stripped of their ability to practise if they vocalise a different opinion about Covid-19 vaccines to the Government.

A very heavy handed approach silencing professionals that may not agree with what is happening.

Listen to the words from MSM or Scott Morrison - "if you have any concerns, talk to your GP" the same GPs that must tow the Government line and not have an opinion that differs or face de-registration. Which is loss of income, assets etc.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 2:52pm

Like many of us, when Equinor wanted to rape the bight, VL, BB, RK and the SN team were probably out there beating the protest drum in dis belief it all could have got as far as it did with NOPSEMA support. Yet somehow Burleigh, these guys (mentioned above) haven't yet realised or made the connection that NOPSEMA are just APRHA for a different spectrum of govt shit fkery...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 3:08pm

that NOPSEMA are just APRHA for a different spectrum of govt shit fkery...
Looks like shortenism has started drinking early today.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 3:50pm

"The problem is that a professional Doctor can be stripped of their ability to practise if they vocalise a different opinion about Covid-19 vaccines to the Government."
No dopey, they can be struck off for vocalising a stupid and dangerous opinion. Standard operating procedure for professional people. But do tell us again why doctors promoting dangerous treatments (or non-treatments) should be able to do that without consequences.

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shortenism Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 4:34pm

Hahaha... AHPRA..

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:13pm

"Hahaha... AHPRA.."
WTF are you on about shortenism having a go at me for using APHRA instead of AHPRA?
I copied and pasted your quote (with your spelling mistake) you absolute moron.
Just when you think burleigh is the dumbest bloke ever to post here, shortenism takes idiocy to an entirely new level.

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shortenism Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:28pm

And while I’m drunk (according to bugga lugs) here’s a prediction..

The stage has been set by a bumbling Scomo the marketing magician, good for fk all but spending your money, lying and remaining vacant when things really matter to bring in his good pal old Iron lips Dutton.. The henchman to finish this all in a monumental display of an authoritarian fantasy gone wrong..

We see you Dutton.

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shortenism Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:30pm

Ah yeah I was correcting myself...? Gees man don’t judge... You’ve got sensitive of late VL.

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:34pm
shortenism wrote:

And while I’m drunk (according to bugga lugs) here’s a prediction..

The stage has been set by a bumbling Scomo the marketing magician, good for fk all but spending your money, lying and remaining vacant when things really matter to bring in his good pal old Iron lips Dutton.. The henchman to finish this all in a monumental display of an authoritarian fantasy gone wrong..

We see you Dutton.

That's actually the most perceptive thing you've ever come up with shortenism.
Scumo's two most devastating legacies will be normalising corruption and weaponising idiocy. The LNP are happy to participate in this Trump Style Campaign against Dan Andrews. When you've got LNP politicians talking at rallies where lunatics are carrying nooses and gallows, shit is getting out of control.

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shortenism Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:45pm

Yeah but c’mon parties aside, surely you don’t think what Dan Andrew’s is proposing for Victoria is something it’s ppl can accept?

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:00pm

shortenism, The pandemic bill could use a couple of minor tweaks re parliamentary oversight and releasing medical advice immediately if a pandemic is declared, but these laws are quite similar to NSW. The response is different because the Vic LNP have zero ethics and the Murdoch scum have been gunning for Andrews for years now. Like I said before, the conservatives have whipped up the mob and are weaponising idiocy.
That mob in the street are just angry people. They need something to hate and the pandemic bill (which very few of them would actually understand) is just the latest moral panic of the day.
This pandemic bill just sets up the legal framework and roles and responsibilities in the event of a pandemic. If the Covid situation continues to improve, these laws may not be invoked in a hundred years or more.
The other reality is, no government would use these laws unless there was a genuine pandemic. It would be electoral suicide. I'd vote LNP if these laws were abused. That mob in the street have zero clue about what they are so afraid of.
This is not a radical opinion. Seen the latest polls champ? The LNP are despised in Victoria. They are a rabble, and a few thousand angry fools in the streets of Melbourne doesn't make Guy premier-material. In fact, it has the opposite effect.

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blackers Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:04pm

There is plenty of commentary suggesting the proposed law offers more accountability than what is currently in place, including the current legislation in NSW. Not saying it can't be improved. https://www.hrlc.org.au/factsheets/2021/11/10/explainer-victorias-propos...

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:31pm

blackers, I'd suggest the backlash against the victorian bill is primarily the result of a concerted campaign to energise and weaponise the idiot right. It doesn't take a genius to work out who is doing it, and who could benefit from the angry mob.
I just hope there's a massive backlash against those trying to Trumpify Australian politics.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:47pm
Vic Local wrote:

blackers, I'd suggest the backlash against the victorian bill is primarily the result of a concerted campaign to energise and weaponise the idiot right. It doesn't take a genius to work out who is doing it, and who could benefit from the angry mob.
I just hope there's a massive backlash against those trying to Trumpify Australian politics.

Or it could have to do with his track record during Covid, and fact he is clearly power hungry and cant be trusted.

1. Victoria the most locked down state in THE WORLD!!!!

2. The highest death rate from Covid in Australia, more than double NSW.

3. The highest infection rate in Australia, 28K more cases than NSW

4. Major quarantine FK up and then when an enquiry was made, suddenly everyone couldn't remember who made the decision.

5 Belt & Road scam.

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bonza Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:45pm
Vic Local wrote:
shortenism wrote:

And while I’m drunk (according to bugga lugs) here’s a prediction..

The stage has been set by a bumbling Scomo the marketing magician, good for fk all but spending your money, lying and remaining vacant when things really matter to bring in his good pal old Iron lips Dutton.. The henchman to finish this all in a monumental display of an authoritarian fantasy gone wrong..

We see you Dutton.

That's actually the most perceptive thing you've ever come up with shortenism.
Scumo's two most devastating legacies will be normalising corruption and weaponising idiocy. The LNP are happy to participate in this Trump Style Campaign against Dan Andrews. When you've got LNP politicians talking at rallies where lunatics are carrying nooses and gallows, shit is getting out of control.

Hold the phone. is that VL agreeing with short on this point?

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:55pm

ID, if your theory had any credibility Labor would be trailing badly in the polls.
The reality is, the ALP are polling very well and the LNP are a shambles in Victoria.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/10/28/resolve-strategic-labor-38-coalit...
For every angry nutter in the street, the LNP are losing many more votes in the middle ground. It looks like weaponising the idiots is not working out well for the Vic Libs.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 7:04pm

Sadly there is two factors at work here.

1. LNP in Victoria dont have a decent opposition leader.

2. Sadly Melbourne is woke latte drinking hipster central basically a lot of brain dead morons.

The fact that Victoria can be the biggest basket case in Australia during Covid and the most lock downed city in the world and people will still probably vote for dictator Dan is really really sad.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 7:17pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

Sadly there is two factors at work here.

1. LNP in Victoria dont have a decent opposition leader.

2. Sadly Melbourne is woke latte drinking hipster central basically a lot of brain dead morons.

No ID the two factors are as follows.
1. The opposition in Vic is pathetic. They've spent the entire pandemic undermining the CHO's covid protocols. A truly lethal course of action if those fools got their way. and
2. Most Victorians saw through the LNP's ridiculous dog whistling last election and don't like their politicising of the pandemic.

In the last 22 years Labor has been in power for 18 years. This current govt is nearly 8 years old and they keep extending their lead. That's because the ALP have been competent and have only had a few big scandals. The Libs on the other hand are a rabble and the majority of Victorians have worked that out.

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indo-dreaming Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 7:40pm
Vic Local wrote:

This current govt is nearly 8 years old and they keep extending their lead. That's because the ALP have been competent and have only had a few big scandals. The Libs on the other hand are a rabble and the majority of Victorians have worked that out.

So this is competent?????

1. Victoria the most locked down state in THE WORLD!!!!

2. The highest death rate from Covid in Australia, more than double NSW.

3. The highest infection rate in Australia, 28K more cases than NSW

4. Major quarantine FK up and then when an enquiry was made, suddenly everyone couldn't remember who made the decision.

5 Belt & Road scam.

Sure

Imagine if the other states preformed as badly as Victoria.

And yeah at one stage it looked like NSW had fucked up too with not locking down hard and fast enough with delta, but the reality was Victoria locked down hard and fast and it made zero difference, delta still spread quickly and couldn't be controlled.

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 8:16pm

"at one stage it looked like NSW had fucked up too with not locking down hard and fast enough with delta, but the reality was Victoria locked down hard and fast and it made zero difference,"
Bwaaaaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
And I'm sure if the Delta wave started in Vic and then spread to the rest of the country and NZ, you'd be letting Dan off the hook with that reasoning.
Just hilarious ID. And hasn't that Belt and Road panic gone quiet in 2021. Guess it was one of those conservative "sky is falling" situations you people love to create.

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shortenism Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 10:00pm

What’s your health advice here Dr VL - Overkill or Roadkill?

https://www.rt.com/news/540030-taiwan-blocks-vaccines-kids-myocarditis/?...

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burleigh Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 10:06pm
shortenism wrote:

What’s your health advice here Dr VL - Overkill or Roadkill?

https://www.rt.com/news/540030-taiwan-blocks-vaccines-kids-myocarditis/?...

Nothing to see here Short. Nothing a few big Pharma political donations cant fix.

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Vic Local Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 10:13pm

I'm not a doctor shortenism, but given covid is less dangerous to young people, while myocarditis is a concern with teenagers, it's understandable Taiwan is pausing vaccines for this age group so they can investigate the situation further.
Having said that 20 cases of myocarditis (which is quite treatable) from 1.1mil vaccine doses to teenagers in Taiwan hardly seems like a massive problem. It's certainly not likely to be a sensible reason to stop vaccinating adults .
Fuck science makes sense. Unlike you shortenism.

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I focus Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 11:45pm
burleigh wrote:

The problem is that a professional Doctor can be stripped of their ability to practise if they vocalise a different opinion about Covid-19 vaccines to the Government.

A very heavy handed approach silencing professionals that may not agree with what is happening.

Listen to the words from MSM or Scott Morrison - "if you have any concerns, talk to your GP" the same GPs that must tow the Government line and not have an opinion that differs or face de-registration. Which is loss of income, assets etc.

I guess to a lay man it can be seen that way but to medical professionals (not just doctors) it extends far further.

There are standards of practice required based on evidence (which meets certain standards) apologise for the bad description (was explained to me by the daughter who is a medical professional and I wasn't paying attention).

Move out side of this criteria and you risk deregistration. There requires a regulated system of practice or else you get what happens in cosmetic surgery etc outliers that go rogue.

Imagine a medical world where doctors did stuff that they felt was a good idea rather than on evidence based best practice.

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Vic Local Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 7:14am

News from last night's camping protest about the Pandemic Bill.
KILL THE BILL
Dan's a dictator.
Mob hangs effigy of Dan Andrew outside parliament
People aren't arrested
We want our freedom
KILL THE BILL.

fair dinkum this mob is that stupid, angry, and committed it's scary.

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blindboy Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 8:32am

Thanks supa. Very interesting. So much great work has been done to get safe effective treatments and it is looking very positive.

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shortenism Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 8:56am

Ah VL you guys have just had the longest lockdown on the planet, businesses have been buckled, families separated, mental health epidemic, conspiracy theories becoming fact.. Yep of course they are fkn angry!

The only other option for the angry mob is to go into delusional denial by ignoring what is happening and really reassure themselves that this is for their ‘safety’.. I’m not sure how you do it but I’ve heard continual re affirmation mirror work can help, watching the morning show def does and even joining an anonymous forum where you can and swear and curse anyone who has a counter view, to keep you on the straight and narrow? Thoughts?

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 10:27am
I focus wrote:
burleigh wrote:

The problem is that a professional Doctor can be stripped of their ability to practise if they vocalise a different opinion about Covid-19 vaccines to the Government.

A very heavy handed approach silencing professionals that may not agree with what is happening.

Listen to the words from MSM or Scott Morrison - "if you have any concerns, talk to your GP" the same GPs that must tow the Government line and not have an opinion that differs or face de-registration. Which is loss of income, assets etc.

I guess to a lay man it can be seen that way but to medical professionals (not just doctors) it extends far further.

There are standards of practice required based on evidence (which meets certain standards) apologise for the bad description (was explained to me by the daughter who is a medical professional and I wasn't paying attention).

Move out side of this criteria and you risk deregistration. There requires a regulated system of practice or else you get what happens in cosmetic surgery etc outliers that go rogue.

Imagine a medical world where doctors did stuff that they felt was a good idea rather than on evidence based best practice.

The biggest issue is that people don't trust the government, so the government are saying "consult your doctor" who have a Dr/patient trust and giving the people who don't trust the government a false sense of security, all while the government have silenced the Drs into submission on this matter with threats of de-registration if they do not comply.

You would have to be living under a rock to not know medical professionals all around the world are speaking out against what is happening, including very brave Doctors in Australia. You just have to look outside MSM as this does not suit their narrative.

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 11:04am
Supafreak wrote:

https://fortune.com/2021/11/15/covid-vaccine-side-effects-kids-under-12/

Sorry Superfreak, that is just MSM $$$$$ paid rubbish.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 11:16am

@burleigh , as a parent of a 5 year old I have real concerns and it looks like that TGA will be holding off until at least late January 2022 before this is rolled out . By then more data should be in from the US . In that article it stated the % of hesitancy from parents. Some countries have ruled out altogether vaccination for this age bracket . I won’t be pushing my kid to the front of the line. Ive been following what’s happening and view both sides of the argument. The initial trial from Pfizer was very very small with only 1518 kids receiving 2 doses.

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 11:19am

Full Vaxed Fully ignorant Fully Stupid Fully up themseves VIP VIPs all drink from the Covid Cup...
15 Melbourne VIPs get Covid on the night > now 26 infections from Dan's superspreader event.
Dan: "New Fully Vaxed Cup Strain is spreading faster than super duper unvaxed Delta+"
Dan's God Squads are being retrofitted with Red Union Detox Units.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10201877/Covid-outbreak-linked-...

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blindboy Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 11:21am

"Sorry Superfreak, that is just MSM $$$$$ paid rubbish."

So an article details all the evidece in a complete;y unbiased way....but because it differs from your own non-expert view, you dismiss it out of hand? And then what? You believe some random dick on youube raving on without evidence? Disblieve whatever you like mate but the path you are tsking leads down a rabbit hole....not into the light.

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 12:24pm
blindboy wrote:

"Sorry Superfreak, that is just MSM $$$$$ paid rubbish."

So an article details all the evidece in a complete;y unbiased way....but because it differs from your own non-expert view, you dismiss it out of hand? And then what? You believe some random dick on youube raving on without evidence? Disblieve whatever you like mate but the path you are tsking leads down a rabbit hole....not into the light.

I pulled a section out of the article for you:
"The study showed no serious side effects, including myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle that occurred extremely rarely in adults after receiving an mRNA vaccine"

Tell me they are not trying to mislead/brainwash readers like Vic Local into a false sense of security. They are literally gambling with children's health for the sake of $$$.

And just suggesting shots are not dangerous because you had one and are fine is like saying Russian roulette isnt dangerous because you played and survived. That's Gaslighting.

Injecting children should not even be a discussion.

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adam12 Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 12:40pm

"Injecting children should not even be a discussion"
Measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, Hep. A, polio, .Diphtheria, tetanus, Meningococcal, etc.
Yep, not worth discussing

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 12:41pm
adam12 wrote:

"Injecting children should not even be a discussion"
Measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, Hep. A, polio, .Diphtheria, tetanus, Meningococcal, etc.
Yep, not worth discussing

You comparing Covid in children to any of those listed above is comical.

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 12:49pm

Serious question for anyone here. In the last 6 - 9 months of the Vax rollout have any of you considered taking control of your health (eating better, exercising, no beers, or vitamin intake) to build your immune system or have you stayed the same and are purely relying on this jab, government & big Pharma as your only protection?

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Supafreak Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 12:49pm

@burleigh , if you have a link with data or real evidence of the danger off vaccination for this age bracket , I’m genuinely interested in reading it .

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blindboy Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 12:52pm

No burleigh what I am saying is that the article presented the existing evidence accurately. If you disagree you need something more than emotive claims about the risk to children and the ridiculous notion, given that I posted a detailed link, that my opinion is based only on my personal experience.

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:02pm
blindboy wrote:

No burleigh what I am saying is that the article presented the existing evidence accurately. If you disagree you need something more than emotive claims about the risk to children and the ridiculous notion, given that I posted a detailed link, that my opinion is based only on my personal experience.

The article had stats, sure. Mixed in with MSM brainwashing. Fuck dude it even mentions Bidens misuss will be travelling to schools to urge parents to vaccinate their kids.

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blindboy Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:08pm

Now you're just being ridiculous. Children are dying of covid in the US paediatric ICUs are full of covid cases in some states. We are fortunately not in the same situation and so can afford to wait. I posted the link to support my claims before. I will post it again.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:06pm
burleigh wrote:

Serious question for anyone here. In the last 6 - 9 months of the Vax rollout have any of you considered taking control of your health (eating better, exercising, no beers, or vitamin intake) to build your immune system or have you stayed the same and are purely relying on this jab, government & big Pharma as your only protection?

Yeah mate I’ve been doing all of the above , all the important stuff to help support my immune system

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:11pm
blindboy wrote:

Now you're just being ridiculous. Children are dying of covid in the US paediatric ICUs are full of covid cases in some states. We are fortunately not in the same situation and so can afford to wait. I posted the link to support my claims before. I will post it again.

Please, i would like to read this, and yes i will do with an open mind

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:15pm
Supafreak wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Serious question for anyone here. In the last 6 - 9 months of the Vax rollout have any of you considered taking control of your health (eating better, exercising, no beers, or vitamin intake) to build your immune system or have you stayed the same and are purely relying on this jab, government & big Pharma as your only protection?

Yeah mate I’ve been doing all of the above , all the important stuff to help support my immune system

Great, if only our governments would promote this same. However all we hear your health relies on this vaccine. No mention about foods, exercise or essential vitamins.
Almost like they want us to reply on Big Pharma......

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blindboy Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:24pm

burleigh no matter how healthy you are your immune system cannot provide specific resistance to covid. The only exception is if you catch the disease, your immune system will learn to make the specific antibodies necessary. If you are lucky this may happen rapidly enough for you to avoid serious illness. Being healthy might help but is no guarantee particularly if you are training hard or doing hard physical work. Governments have previously made efforts to improve the general health of the population but in this case the message has to be clear. Vaccination in adults reduces the risk.of infection by over 90%. Everything else runs a far distant second to that simple fact.

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burleigh Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:41pm
blindboy wrote:

burleigh no matter how healthy you are your immune system cannot provide specific resistance to covid. The only exception is if you catch the disease, your immune system will learn to make the specific antibodies necessary. If you are lucky this may happen rapidly enough for you to avoid serious illness. Being healthy might help but is no guarantee particularly if you are training hard or doing hard physical work. Governments have previously made efforts to improve the general health of the population but in this case the message has to be clear. Vaccination in adults reduces the risk.of infection by over 90%. Everything else runs a far distant second to that simple fact.

No where did i mention that a healthy immune system will provide a specific resistance, but it will certainly help.
Allowing your body to heal by not overloading it with shit processed food or alcohol and letting your body do what it's meant to do will help fight the virus if and when we may catch it.
Simply taking your health into your own hands, rather than reply on a business that wants to keep making money.

Edit: 90% where is this evidence coming from?

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Supafreak Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:38pm
burleigh wrote:
blindboy wrote:

No burleigh what I am saying is that the article presented the existing evidence accurately. If you disagree you need something more than emotive claims about the risk to children and the ridiculous notion, given that I posted a detailed link, that my opinion is based only on my personal experience.

The article had stats, sure. Mixed in with MSM brainwashing. Fuck dude it even mentions Bidens misuss will be travelling to schools to urge parents to vaccinate their kids.

If you look how fortune is rated they are center with more of a bias to the right which is part of the reason I used that particular news article .