COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 9:43am

Fluvoxamine, budesonide, melatonin, finasteride, steroids and quite a few more.
Not to mention more expensive ones (comparable cost to Merck) monoclonal antibodies and remdisevir.
Broody and Clancy treated 600 patients with Ivermectin, Doxycycline and Zinc, 5 hospitalisations, no deaths, everyone completed the treatment. Case series only, not published (yet)
Go hunt around for the evidence yourself, it’s all there

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blindboy Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 9:56am

A quick search turned up some pretty unconvincing evidence. Some may prove useful when better studies are done but the antivirals have more potential in my judgement. I am ignoring ivermectin because it seems settled that it is at best of marginal use and there are better drugs already available.Easy to find the links, search the drug name + covid.

There is insufficient evidence for the COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel to recommend either for or against the use of fluvoxamine for the treatment of COVID-19. Results from adequately powered, well-designed, and well-conducted clinical trials are needed to provide more specific, evidence-based guidance on the role of fluvoxamine for the treatment of COVID-19.

a larger open-label trial in nonhospitalized patients with COVID-19 at high risk of disease progression, found that inhaled budesonide did not affect the rate of hospitalization or death but did reduce time to self-reported recovery.31 The findings from these trials should be interpreted with caution given the open-label design of the studies and other limitations as outlined in the study description in Table 4b. Additional trials of inhaled corticosteroids are ongoing.

The high safety profile of melatonin, either alone or in a combined therapy, and its potential anti-SARS-CoV-2 effects make this molecule a first-line drug that should be considered for the treatment of sleep disturbances in COVID-19 patients. However, to verify the clinical usefulness of melatonin in the treatment of COVID-19, it is necessary to wait until the end of the clinical trials.

A short course of finasteride administration partially improves O2 saturation but does not influence other outcomes in hospitalized male patients aged ≥50 years with COVID-19 pneumonia. Further research in a large scale with longer follow-up is required to help clarify the role of finasteride in this setting.

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tylerdurden Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 10:08am

You’re a special individual Blindboy

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 10:21am

A vaccinated Uber driver has tested positive to COVID on the GC and Anna P says

"despite the high vaccination rate in the southeast Queensland city, there was still a relatively high number of those who were vulnerable because they were yet to receive their jab"

Its obvious that those unvaccinated now aren't going to be. They haven't bought into the fear and propaganda, so now these psychopaths turn the vaccinated mob against them to ostracise by threatening a lockdown. Its a well trodden path from the old playbook of divide and conquer 101 and evident all over this campaign.

With guys like roadkill there will be celebration when we're burnt at the stake. At least you'll all be able to sing and dance because so far the rules allow that.. But keep up your boosters or you'll be next.

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Vic Local Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 10:20am

Oh look, shortenism is on the side of the idiots again. Who'd of thunk it.

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Roadkill Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 10:31am
shortenism wrote:

A vaccinated Uber driver has tested positive to COVID on the GC and Anna P says

"despite the high vaccination rate in the southeast Queensland city, there was still a relatively high number of those who were vulnerable because they were yet to receive their jab"

Its obvious that those unvaccinated now aren't going to be. They haven't bought into the fear and propaganda, so now these psychopaths turn the vaccinated mob against them to ostracise by threatening a lockdown. Its a well trodden path from the old playbook of divide and conquer 101 and evident all over this campaign.

With guys like roadkill there will be celebration when we're burnt at the stake. At least you'll all be able to sing and dance because so far the rules allow that.. But keep up your boosters or you'll be next.

"I got better things to do with my Friday morning"
After posting you have better things to do 10 mins ago....here you are again posting.

Funny.

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truebluebasher Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 2:22am

tylerdurden ...reply...thanx for caring...The data is a straight rip from Worldometer
Ok! So it's a bit fussy to access & there is an art form to wrangling the data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Click Columns....
Scroll down to click [1 case every X ppl ] / [1 death every X ppl ]
But! It's best to load one Title at a time to access the case / rank.
To do so...check the header & click the feint arrows to flick to rank...
As said, it's fussy but the site does put out...tbb rates it highly...not seen any censorship! Weird Huh!
tbb did run a cross check on our Oz rate per Oz Govt Vax pop & it was spot on...[factchecked]
Least fussed by grumble bums...poo pooing Wordometer's Data! (tbb is fine with it!)

Also > NSW Health data 30 Oct Full Vaxed 21.4% / Partially Vax 9.2% / No effective Dose 36.8%
(No effective Dose ) Breakdown > Fast Rising 1 dose had overpowered 10% declining No Vax from Sept
Simply countback to when Full Vax started rising above 1% divide 7/8 weeks =(3% rise wk) Simple!
Oct Vic vaxed up 3% wk until they pulled the plug on data for Open day as with NSW Data massage!
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-sur...

Just that it's rare to come across Vaxerz interested in Vax
None give a shit that UK / Oz 1st Chapters of Phase 1 Vax Spike Rollout Data is censored!
If crew can retrieve them...please bring it up on the screen for students & Scientists to study!
tbb will share wotz missing...

UK 8th Dec - 10th Jan Phase 1 (Daily Vax amounts)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Oz 21 Feb - 8th April Phase 1 (Daily Vax amounts)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s-daily-covid-19-vaccine-rollo...

If Vax Experts know so much...why won't they share the Joy! (Cough!)
All gather around Kids for greatest story never told...Hey teacher! 'Why is there no Chapter 1' (Dunno!)

Getting late...Time to set the alarm for when Experts pretend to care...mask on / sarcophagus lid shut.

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blindboy Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:21am

Usual nonsense.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:21am

Usual nonsense.

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tylerdurden Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:23am

Tbb I found it interesting that Blindboy said you were an agent of misinformation, seems like every point you make has a link for reference.
I must admit that I do occasionally lose track of what your saying but in this regard I think you make a good point: the vaccines do not stop individuals from passing on the virus when seemingly the community should be at herd immunity. Combination of the fact they are non-sterilising, the short duration of effect of the vaccine +/- new mutants.

I heard a guy from the BMJ say perhaps they should not be called vaccines, perhaps better to say they are a medication that needs to be taken every 6 months to stop you getting sick from corona.
“Proof of medication” doesn’t quite have the same ring to it but also the anti-vaxxers are in a quandary: it’s not a vaccine

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blindboy Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:43am

tyler vaccination reduce transmission by up to 91%......why do you keep spreading bullshit?

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0607-mrna-reduce-risks.html

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Supafreak Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:48am

Transmission or infection by 91% ? Asking for a friend.

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blindboy Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:50am

vaccination reduce infection by up to 91%

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tylerdurden Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:51am

As Tbb points out, with many references, is that highly vaccinated countries, which should be at herd immunity are seeing rising infections.
A combination of the non-sterilising effect of the vaccine, short duration of effect +/- new variants.
Surely that’s not misinformation BB?

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san Guine Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 8:08am

A little bit of good news from the frontline:
My health service has actually been able to close one of our COVID wards due to decreased demand (maybe a little premature, but fingers crossed). It is now being deep cleaned . We will also be recommencing 50% of surgeries next week, if this trend continues.

The problem still exists that the entire workforce is 'shattered', with really poor skill mix on every single Ward.

As an aside, my partner, a nurse, decided to take an early retirement. Yesterday, we contacted her super fund (HESTA) regarding accessing her super and were told that due to incredibly high demand we can't get an appointment to see a financial planner until February 2022- so many experienced nurses getting out of the profession!

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Supafreak Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 8:13am

That’s good and sad news SG , all the best to your wife though

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Supafreak Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 9:30am
tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 3:07pm

Sorry that Peter Doshi video I linked has been deleted from YouTube because it apparently violated community guidelines. Peter Doshi is the BMJ editor I mentioned who likened the vaccines to a medicine.

Here’s another of his videos

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tubeshooter Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 6:29pm

Got an email today from my real estate agent about an up coming tenant inspection. It states I have to show my double vax status or leave the premises for the inspection.
Seems strange given that I've very recently had a termite inspector in , a house valuer and a separate smoke alarm check , and none of that was suggested.
I'm double vaxxed but ,, I just don't think I can comply with this 'demand' , not in my own home. I'm ok with having to show it when required outside my home for the interim , but this just feels wrong.
I would be happy to don a mask for the visit but that's it , but that wasn't requested in their email.
My home is a registered business address and I have a QR for that , so I will be demanding to see their vax status and making them sign in.
I could simply show my vax cert and avoid the conflict but on principle I don't feel I can.
I don't know if they have any legal right under current covid rules to force me out of my home , even for a short period , for an inspection , but I guess I'm about to find out.
I have a pretty good relationship with the owners and the real estate so hopefully this won't come to much.
I just think it is a bit rude , and more so because the email was framed as a demand and not simply a request ,,and it's the first time I've heard of someone being required to show a vax certificate in their own home.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 6:36pm

Is there any other requirement/papers you could ask for? Licenced Real Estate ticket, Qualified Property Manager pass, valid police check? Throw the book at 'em tubeshooter.

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Roadkill Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 6:42pm
tubeshooter wrote:

Got an email today from my real estate agent about an up coming tenant inspection. It states I have to show my double vax status or leave the premises for the inspection.
Seems strange given that I've very recently had a termite inspector in , a house valuer and a separate smoke alarm check , and none of that was suggested.
I'm double vaxxed but ,, I just don't think I can comply with this 'demand' , not in my own home. I'm ok with having to show it when required outside my home for the interim , but this just feels wrong.
I would be happy to don a mask for the visit but that's it , but that wasn't requested in their email.
My home is a registered business address and I have a QR for that , so I will be demanding to see their vax status and making them sign in.
I could simply show my vax cert and avoid the conflict but on principle I don't feel I can.
I don't know if they have any legal right under current covid rules to force me out of my home , even for a short period , for an inspection , but I guess I'm about to find out.
I have a pretty good relationship with the owners and the real estate so hopefully this won't come to much.
I just think it is a bit rude , and more so because the email was framed as a demand and not simply a request ,,and it's the first time I've heard of someone being required to show a vax certificate in their own home.

I would be asking for their vax certs….they must provide proof to enter your home.

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Supafreak Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 6:59pm
shortenism's picture
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shortenism Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:01pm

What a disgrace ts. Worlds gone mad.. fully backed by the likes of BB, VL, roadkill and the SN team. Thanks fellas top job and hope you’re all feeling safe.

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Vic Local Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:12pm

I'm feeling a lot safer given that 95% + of people in my local area are fully vaxxed. You on the other hand, shortenism, think that's a problem.
I will leave it up to others to determine who holds the more rational position.

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tubeshooter Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:26pm

haha thanks for the tip VJ , I might bring that up in jest . I won't be emailing a response to them ,I'll be delivering it by phone call. I'd rather go to the office but then I'd have to show my vax cert and then my little protest won't mean anything. Like I said ,I am on good terms with the agent and now would be a bad time to piss off the owners , but I'm guessing it's some generic letter they are sending out for all inspection notices now. I reckon they'll fold when I explain my objection calmly.
But certainly RK, if they insist on it , I'll do the same.

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bonza Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:33pm

I agree with short in this one. It’s bullshit.

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Vic Local Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:54pm
bonza wrote:

I agree with short in this one. It’s bullshit.

Did you go to the same medical school as shortenism?

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tubeshooter Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 9:13pm

A genuine question for VL , I'm just curious given your stance on this subject, ,,
Would you consider my reaction to the aforementioned email over the top ? Am I being unreasonable?
I understand they have a duty of care thing too but I think this stuff is being unreasonably applied in these circumstances.

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Vic Local Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 9:40pm

tube shooter. I'd say you have every right to request the people inspecting the home you rent are double vaxxed. Works both ways I'd say.

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bonza Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 9:47pm
Vic Local wrote:
bonza wrote:

I agree with short in this one. It’s bullshit.

Did you go to the same medical school as shortenism?

Nope. But I can agree on things with people i disagree with on many things.
Can you?

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Vic Local Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 9:54pm

"Nope. But I can agree on things with people i disagree with on many things.
Can you?"
I'm yet to see a comment by shortenism on covid that is even remotely accurate or sensible. His opinions are the exact opposite of the vast majority of medical professionals and he has zero medical training. Anyone holding those foolish and ignorant opinions on covid should be openly mocked.

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bonza Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 10:01pm

Short was responding to tubes irritation at being demanded to show prof of vaccination by a real estate agency inspection in his own home that he has contact with and pays for.

That is a step too far. And another power given to real estate for the benefit of profit only.

If you have had experience in rental inspections you would understand how this feels.

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I focus Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 11:33pm

TS its likely a "employer providing a safe work place " thing the real estate agent looking out for its employees or avoiding being sued for putting employees at risk.

Just guessing...

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tubeshooter Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 11:50pm

Cheers VL , but further to that, and more to the point of my question I probably didn't make clear , was , do you think they are justified in asking me for it in my own home. , for a tenancy inspection.?

Inspections like these and the other ones I mentioned go on pretty much as normal {mask/glove} rule aside , and have done throughout this pandemic ..and so does general maintenance or repairs. Some inspections were delayed but this is the first I've heard of anything like this. If it was considered an essential service then vax status wouldn't be an issue.

I find it totally unacceptable . We {RE agent} and I can walk in to the small local bakery together but he can't come into my house without seeing my papers , ffs.

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tubeshooter Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 12:01am
I focus wrote:

TS its likely a "employer providing a safe work place " thing the real estate agent looking out for its employees or avoiding being sued for putting employees at risk.

Just guessing...

Yeah I totally get that I focus , and also for the clients . If the email was formatted as a request I might be receptive to it , but they lost me on the demanding tone.
I reckon I have more to worry about from them than they do from me though as far covid goes anyway, given their client base..

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shortenism Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 8:39am

Ei Roadkill here’s that NZ story. Read the first paragraph 10 times then the rest of the story and come back to me

https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/11/11/new-lynn-shooting-victim-was-positive...

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Roadkill Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 9:36am
shortenism wrote:

Ei Roadkill here’s that NZ story. Read the first paragraph 10 times then the rest of the story and come back to me

https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/11/11/new-lynn-shooting-victim-was-positive...

“An additional death in Auckland has today been added to the national Covid-19 figures,” the Ministry of Health said.“

And

Hart is included in New Zealand's Covid-19 figures because of a change in the way the Ministry of Health reports on deaths.

"The clinical criteria will continue to be guided by WHO definition which is basically to report any death where the person had an acute Covid-19 infection regardless of what the cause of death might be," Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield told RNZ.“

He died with covid…not from covid. Ffs, he was shot in a driveway and died, how the fuck are you so stupid?

I guess if you were a defence lawyer, you would get the shooters off murder charges by presenting a news article saying he died from covid, not the bullet?

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shortenism Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 9:51am

Settle down roadkill you're getting all flustered again.. So even though he died from being shot you think its ok that 'An additional death has today been added to the COVID19 figures' ..?

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Roadkill Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 9:58am
shortenism wrote:

Settle down roadkill you're getting all flustered again.. So even though he died from being shot you think its ok that 'An additional death has today been added to the COVID19 figures' ..?

The case of covid has been added to the total figures of NZ’ers that have had covid. Covid is not added as the cause of death…so yes, it is ok to add to the figures. Total covid cases need recorded.

That you are arguing over this reflects on your lack understanding.

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shortenism Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 10:39am

Lack of understanding/..? You've argued with me on this point since I posted Dr Jeannete Young's statement in QLD many months ago that any death where someone has COVID will be listed as a COVID death.

Yep you can see in this article that there is a suggestion of a shift away from that approach to now separate the two. Finally!! Maybe?? But my point is the damage has been done. Artificial inflated figures have driven the emergency declarations, which has led to a 2 year catastrophic cluster fk.

Of NZ's 33 listed covid deaths until now, how many of them are genuine. Its a small number 33 and a single questionable death stat under materiality rules makes a 'material' difference.

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Roadkill Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 10:41am
shortenism wrote:

Lack of understanding/..? You've argued with me on this point since I posted Dr Jeannete Young's statement in QLD many months ago that any death where someone has COVID will be listed as a COVID death.

Yep you can see in this article that there is a suggestion of a shift away from that approach to now separate the two. Finally!! Maybe?? But my point is the damage has been done. Artificial inflated figures have driven the emergency declarations, which has led to a 2 year catastrophic cluster fk.

Of NZ's 33 listed covid deaths until now, how many of them are genuine. Its a small number 33 and a single questionable death stat under materiality rules makes a 'material' difference.

No, I have not.
But feel free to post where I have argued that.

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brainiac Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 11:06am

The last time i looked at the TGA website 570 deaths have been looked at as to people dying soon after vaccination. So if the same principles of classification are applied to potentially vaccine induced deaths..............WTF Ban the vaccine.... lock up the unvaxed.... save them from getting vax shots. The hypocrisy of this steaming pile of vaccine mandate shit is palpable.

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blindboy Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 11:20am

If you want to argue against vaccine mandates fair enough, but staying somewhere in the vicinity of the truth might actually help your cause. From the tga site.

Screen-Shot-2021-11-14-at-11-14-30-am
upload image

The number of deaths is around 8.
https://www.aap.com.au/factcheck/australian-vaccine-death-claims-are-a-d...

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Supafreak Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 11:46am

Since the beginning of the vaccine rollout to 7 November 2021, about 36.8 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered. The TGA has found 9 reports of death that were linked to immunisation from 656 reports received and reviewed. https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safety-report-11.... 506-A49-AF-A1-E1-4499-96-E8-CC0-F2-F12-E055

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Michael Adam Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 11:49am

The long term effects are unknown.

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san Guine Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 12:26pm

The long term effects of COVID are also unknown.

Opportunistic secondary infections are also a huge area of concern such as Aspergillus, Klebsiella, MRSA. Already we are seeing extubated COVID patients returning back into ICU with secondary infections and being re-intubated.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavir...

Interestingly, chest XR's are often very similar in the COVID lung:
Patchy bilateral opacities.
https://www.uclahealth.org/radiology/workfiles/pdf/UCLA-covid19-chest-ra...

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blindboy Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 12:29pm
Michael Adam's picture
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Michael Adam Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 12:42pm

I do not fear covid or the “vaccine”.
I do fear the government authorities and their supporters’ actions in response.

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Roadkill Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 12:50pm

The long term effects of the vaccine are better known

Than

The long term effects of covid.