Hey FR, I'll give the financial reply* to that one:
No, coastal RE won't drop - I'm not seeing it.
Yes, it has dropped as the AUD has dropped (international viewpoint)
No it won't drop, here's my 2c (not advice) on the fundamentals:
The virus has changed widespread perception. All the enduring you have to do in a modern city, the congestion, people, etc - are now tainted with potential virus. A lot of people are being paid (jobkeeper, jobseeker) and are weighing up what they want to do with their lives. It ain't being in the rat race (been there and made that decision myself, but to be fair health forced my hand early).
The regions have been shut down in places, and are protected inasmuch as they are that one further degree separated from the globalism, city, virus. They are clean. So there's been a gravitation toward them, especially coastal.
This is an enormous collective realisation, and builds upon trends I already saw: if modern life is exhausting and stressful, a return to nature can recharge one. After all, we are a part of nature. Strip everything back. I look at people learning to surf, and they get a chance to breathe out there, to pause and cruise (no wonder so many take up logs and gliding). It's a respite from the increasingly tech/surveillance/finance modern world. At the same time, team sports and ball sports are declining (look at the empty stadium seats, the off-field antics, the social programming now incorporated in the games) and people are tuning out, and back to nature. This is a good thing, but a good thing that is manifesting in very crowded breaks and mountain bike trails. So you have the acceleration of this already present trend via the virus.
I'm also noticing so, so many people taking this event as a chance to reset their lives and livelihoods. Most have some form of support, and now some time to consider their lives. Fuck that if I'm working till death for Company X doing soul-less mechanisation Y. I'm going to make a business for myself. I'm going to help people. I'm getting fit. You can check the data points - in the US the most recent rise in the indexes has a huge increase in small trades, and small traders compared to the big professional firms (how it'll end up is probably in tears for the little guys). Nevertheless, they are learning and buying education at huge rates. Homes are being renovated at a large clip. People are launching small businesses. I'm hearing many anecdotes of this. A family member is cleaning up in the US trading baseball and basketball cards! I just finished and made work my next piece of capital equipment today, very stoked!
There is a shift in how things get sold, away from retail premises to home & delivery. So if this is the case, why not leave the city and move to a coastal region, make that start you wanted to? This shift in buying was happening anyway, got madly accelerated by the virus.
I'm quite excited by what I'm seeing: it's as if a mad flowering of free enterprise is the natural default of people, it's just it's been hammered down by high regulation/high land & rent prices/having to work for others/monopolies controlling markets.
So all adds up to people wanting to be in nice areas and be meaningfully creative. I eagerly await the Freeride Nursery chain and Duck and Goose Exchange.
(Now the reality in 6 months time, economically, for all this awakening going on might be quite different, so always important to be fiscally conservative while you dream for the stars!)
*financial blurb always includes a clause such as: past performance is no indicator of future returns especially since we punted the lot on natural gas futures options
& nice work Fraser!
Free ride, where will see a drop?
Can’t see coastal dropping by anything meaningful. As VJ pointed out, the banks happily giving out payment holidays or interest only, this gives them more future profits.
Tenant lost their job and can’t pay the rent? Just extend the mortgage until the situation is over.
There is no ability to wind back the boom.
And if anything, this virus has probably done more to demonstrate working from anywhere is possible.
Forget it Fraser...gotta put up with Joe Rogan crapping on about supplements and shit...his own
Dumb ass. Makes Andy Roy look like Parky.
Joe Rogan just signed 150Mn deal with Spotify, pulled metaphoric finger to YT & censoring
He's the talk show host of the younger generation
Bit late on the uptake and in being so: is there any room for ideology any more? Media and politics is in a whole new place now? serious question.
Joe Rogan, younger generation??
UFC dweebs and 30 something incel types, now coming 'overground', notwithstanding?
All hail the new alpha Oprah!
Serious question (that's been asked before, with no answer), what is the Liberal party's consumer friendly ideology?
I'll give you points for the incels and alpha Oprah (funny!) but those early 30's incels created a green frog and changed the world.
The Lib's consumer friendly ideology is you're a consumer, be friendly.
Low EiQ amongst the (ironically) true 'snowflake' set changed the world FOR THE BETTER??
As some numpties might shriek:
What is it now? Triple down on the trickle down??
Even the IMF lost faith years ago now.
Never fear, the AFR and the Wall Street Journal haven't.
And of course OUR Liberal Party.
interesting little admission about scientists, the virus, and their 'objectivity'..
"...Asked why scientists have had this view, Professor Petrovsky said scientists “try not to be political” and do not want their research impacted adversely by tighter laboratory controls.
“We just try to base our findings on facts rather than taking particular political positions but sometimes obviously the alternatives may have unintended consequences,” he said.
“For instance, if it was to turn out that this virus may have come about because of an accidental lab release that would have implications for how we do viral research in laboratories all around the world which could make doing research much harder.
“So I think the inclination of virus researchers would be to presume that it came from an animal until proven otherwise because that would have less ramifications for how we are able to do research in the future. The alternative obviously has quite major implications for science and science on viruses, not just obviously political ramifications which we’re all well aware of.”
Professor Petrovsky said an inquiry needs to start straight away, not when the pandemic is finished.
“The idea of putting it off to the pandemic is over, it would be a mistake,” he said."
"“It was like it was designed to infect humans,” he said."
I suggested this months ago, so yes my 'confirmation bias' is kicking in...
I just find it most interesting that scientists deny that it is pretty much always subjective decisions that determine research, and what counts as 'evidence' warranting more 'research'...
this has been especially the case with this little virus
Yeah I thought the same thing. Reading multiple sources regarding the potential source (lab setting vs. natural setting) seemed like it really could've been either equally, or perhaps even the lab given (1) the type cross-species work the lab was doing with that specific group of viruses and (2) a researcher at another facility elsewhere in China was quite literally sent to jail for selling lab animals to a meat market.
I guess what I'm saying is, seemed like the rationale from the bulk of researchers responding to the source question was "it's extremely likely it came from natural setting because historically that's how it's happened", though many also admitted that too was purely conjecture. So not really a conclusion based on the body of evidence (mix of factual and anecdotal) based but rather....almost, preference?
Regarding the real estate question...I agree with VJ that this will accelerate any already present trend of people (particularly Gen Y and X now) of bailing on high flying corporate jobs in the metro zones and taking up work with smaller outfits in regional areas. Part of why we we've done this has seemed a bit tin-foil hat to some friends, but to me was always logical and I point to our current circumstances as evidence....how many SHTF/apocalyptic movies are set outside major cities/high density areas? What do people in this areas do (in movies and in reality, like we've seen with the Rona) do when the Shit Hits The Fan? They try to flee the cities!!!
Not only is life more chill outside of the cities (except during Easter and Xmas!), but land is cheaper (but not that much cheaper! and salaries often lower), and you can set yourself up to become less reliant upon "the system" so that when shocks occur you're more resilient.
I've seen some RE folk in regional areas (so admittedly there's an incentive for them to hype it) say they're already seeing increase in interest from city folk to have a bolthole somewhere...remember the news reports complaining about the wealthy city folk escaping from the the prospect of an I Am Legend scenario to their country cottages? Now put the ability to work remotely either full time or 2-3 days per week and hey presto....who needs a 4 bedroom house in the city? Just share a unit with a mate/colleague...
In saying all of that....If there is an economic crisis where banks are less keen to lend, and we see more permanent job losses, I'd think it reasonable to assume we will see RE prices fall in those coastal towns for 6 months or so. During the GFC, the biggest falls were in high profile coastal holiday towns like Noosa and Byron and Cenny Coast etc (I think Noosa had the largest fall of any postcode in the country?). Though they were also the fastest to bounce back as people rushed back in to grab a deal and secure their place alongside the rich Slavs and former pro athletes up in Sunshine Beach
definitely preference, I put it down to tds, it's clouded judgement on every single decision of much of the establishment for years now, they just cannot accept he might be right about something
which doesn't mean its a lab disease, but to not look there with the evidence on hand is just blind faith, wishful thinking, fingers in ears I don't wanna hear it tantrum stuff, they disappeared scientists and destroyed vials ffs!
yep no worries.
I wish I could share VJ's optimism but I just see another generation being locked out of where they grew up.
Big city prices and rents to keep a roof over your head, fuck that.
A 925000 house, which is just a wooden family home needs a deposit of $180000 to get in the door.
Plus the student debt they will accumulate.
Thats a hefty hole to have to fill in before you get to sea level.
FR, tell me about it... and 925,000 wouldn't even get you a bit of land where I grew up.
“It was like it was designed to infect humans,” he said."
I was surprised to hear this reported on ABC radio today, i was under the understanding from reading numerousreputable sources that we know it couldn't have been created in a lab and looked to be natural, i even saw an ABC TV thing think it was media watch completely writing off others that suggested otherwise.
"I wish I could share VJ's optimism but I just see another generation being locked out of where they grew up."
Then you'll love this:
In local uni news:
The abandonment of university sector workers by the federal government is criminal. It's like they are intentionally driving people out of academia.
Deakin University has played a very big role in rejuvenating the Geelong economy and the Federal government seem happy to gut the university and ignore the consequences to Victoria's second largest city.
8pm Australian Story - in 10 mins on ABC
Patriotic singers of Australian village of Mullingrad become sensation in lockdown Russia by singing patriotic Russian songs!
If COVID never happened the next CT comp would be the newly reinstated G'Land contest. Originally scheduled to start on June 4th. With a six week gap between Margs and G'Land, the pros would've been warming up at Plengkung right now.
Here's the G'Land forecast for the next week and a bit.
Looks alright, hey.
Lot of pushback initially for this comp, but I for one would have loved to see the pros going hard at pumping G'land. I thought the Ulu contest was a little underwhelming (can't even remember who won) but that forecast above would have made for some pretty exciting viewing.
couple of funky wind days but heaps of swell.
really need those trades to blow for Gland.
Scuse my ignorance but what is the best wind direction for G'land?
ESE to SE trades. Can't be too strong or it blows down the point.
All those empty barrels going down the reef. Fuck I’d sell my left nut to be there for that forecast
Well there you go, the weekend through Tuesday looks epic.
Another question, is it heavily tide dependent?
I'm ashamed to say, i've never actually been to Indo. Flown over it many times.
You can surf it on low tide Zen, just not the whole reef. Speedies wants a high tide
Cheers Goof, been invited on trips a number of times but the stars never seem to align.
Looks like a magic wave. I've had a few friends go over the years- reasonably competent to rippers and they all come away stoked.
Get there one day Zen you’ll love it
TBH Zen, if you've never been to Indo, then G Land is probably not the best place to lose your Indonesian virginity.
I've surfed from Timor to Northern Sumatra and G Land is definitely in the top 5 heaviest waves I've surfed over there. It's up there with nokandui, Supersuck, Deserts, and One Palm
My first session was 8-10ft Speedies and it was going underground. Took me 90 minutes to get my first wave and it's still seared in the memory bank. My head was spinning at the end of it, because I can't actually remember breathing after a big breath before taking off. I needed to chill for five minute after flicking off into the channel to get the heart rate down!!
G Land is a place that really exposes limited fitness and dodgy pop ups. If you're not super confident pulling into dredging left hand barrels over shallow reef, best to go somewhere else.
Cheers Vic, i'd like to think i'd ease into it. Kinda like a hot bath.
Rifles- now there's a wave that's got me written all over it. Bucket list wave.
hopefully we can at least now have some sane conversations.
thats the only place I can see a realistic chance of property prices declining: the inner city apartment market.
I can actually remember pulling into tubes at speedies and breathing like being really aware of breathing while flying through the tubes wildest sensation.
Ah, I see you are back after a short hiatus Blowin, with freshly greased eye-swivels too.
This is murder plain and simple, what the fuck is wrong with USA cops?!
That joint is going to explode one of these days and it’s going to be a bloody, hideous mess when it does.
This is so so wrong. And it keeps happening and happening and happening.
Those cops need the electric chair. Fucking cu#^s
Edit. This is not pleasant viewing. It’s hard to watch
Gees that is sickening hope they get put away for this the world is falling apart at the seams.
And while we are at it fuck Rio Tinto for destroying those sacred sites over the last weekend bad juju to you.
I saw that on the news goofy and it was bloody disturbing.
In the US the police are trained to believe everyone is a 'threat'.
Fun fact: The Police Executive Research Forum in 2015 found that on average trainees spent 127 hours on training in weapons and fighting, and just 8 hours on conflict with de-escalation. i.e shoot first, ask questions later. And it's ugly head keeps rising again and again and again....
Talk about broken system.
Zen ~ a map for your Indo trip...
Have it cunts