COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:31am
Blowin wrote:

My maths isn’t wrong. I’ve quoted the Worldometer deaths per million of population statistic.

Gotchya, sorry mis-interpreted.

gsco's picture
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gsco Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:41am
freeride76 wrote:

Also sounds like Niger Govt restricted movements.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213398421001056

We've seen in Aus how restricting movements into states that are protected by deserts like SA and WA has meant basically zero Covid transmission.

That may be a factor in Niger?

Niger seemed to have minimal lockdown restrictions apart from its borders:





all from: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countrie...

I also wonder if the elephant in the room - genetics - has an impact?*

*In no way is this meant to be derogatory or racist.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:40am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

You have to compare 1st world with first world. Comparing a first world country to a 3rd world country with an uneducated population that belives witch Drs fix disease and illness is just stupid. It probably fits a bias.

Why?

Is it a pandemic of the unvaccinated or a pandemic of the literate? Make up your mind.

Both..I think you will find that the less literate a country is, the higher amount of unvaxxed.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:45am

In Niger the population goes to a witch dr and kill a few chickens for disease..

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:48am

The discussion we’ve been having revolves around the lack of vaccination in certain countries. New Hampshire in the US has 99% of over 65 vaccinated yet cases/ hospitalisations/ deaths amongst that demographic are exponentially worse than in Cameroon where the vaccination rate is 2%.

Some locations just don’t seem particularly affected by Covid. It does not appear to have any correlation with vaccination rates and covid mitigation strategies at all.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:51am

The elephant in the covid room.

Pun intended.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41366-021-01016-9

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Craig Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:54am

I think you'll find most of those discrepancies being due to reporting of figures. Again talking 1st world vs 3rd but I'd have to spend more time looking into it which I do not have right now.

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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:54am

Niger a couple of hours ago and Cameroon now!!!

Stop it blowin, you're just humiliating yourself comparing these two nations to Australia. Here's a tip, if you're going to start comparing vaccine/infection/death rates maybe pick nations with a comparable healthcare system. Until you do that you're comparing apples with cement mixers.

But hey, maybe I'm being unfair on blowin and Niger and Cameroon have similar resources to throw at track and tracing teams, hospitals, and covid testing as Australia. Not to mention a communications system to provide up to date information about outbreaks and primary and secondary contacts.

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gsco Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:57am

And from the front page of the same journal: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41366-021-00771-z

Obesity and fitness (as proxied by walking pace) are significant factors

Conclusion: keep surfing everyday

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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:57am

Just on Africa. I listened to a MSF Dr talking about pandemic responses in Africa. When people present at a hospital and who gets treated. It was men of working age who get the beds and treatment above all others...this was due to being the main breadwinners for families and villages...everyone else gets seen id they can. Seems harsh but is the reality in 3rd world countries.

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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 11:59am
Craig wrote:
Blowin wrote:

My maths isn’t wrong. I’ve quoted the Worldometer deaths per million of population statistic.

Gotchya, sorry mis-interpreted.

vicvocal's apology will be following shortly...

maybe

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saltyone Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 12:10pm

Interestingly and I posted about this a year ago? Tanzania had a very low case rate up until their president (John Magufuli) died suddenly. After their new president started the vaccine program cases soared from July onwards .
I think similar in Madagascar .

saltyone's picture
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saltyone Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 12:12pm

Hmm so Moderna is saying no to being able to treat omicron but Pfizer yes? But they both are similar in how they treat alpha cov? Seems odd.

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Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 12:16pm
sypkan wrote:
Craig wrote:
Blowin wrote:

My maths isn’t wrong. I’ve quoted the Worldometer deaths per million of population statistic.

Gotchya, sorry mis-interpreted.

vicvocal's apology will be following shortly...

maybe

Sorry blowin, I copied Craig's homework and got it wrong. I should have checked.
This doesn't invalidate every other point I've made about you.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 12:39pm

Haaaaaaha,.. Good to have you back Blowin.. The cracks are appearing in the line of defence to cold hard truth.

In other news YouTube's new code of conduct will strike you for posting anything going against health authorities or WHO re COVID 19... Wow. They don't want any conversation outside of the central narrative.. The slope is getting slipperier.

What happens when Big Pharma and Big Tech run things.

https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/9891785

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 12:42pm
shortenism wrote:

Haaaaaaha,.. Good to have you back Blowin.. The cracks are appearing in the line of defence to cold hard truth.

In other news YouTube's new code of conduct will strike you for posting anything going against health authorities or WHO re COVID 19... Wow. They don't want any conversation outside of the central narrative.. The slope is getting slipperier.

What happens when Big Pharma and Big Tech run things.

https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/9891785

It's more to do with, they don't want lies and bs spread

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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 12:48pm

"It's more to do with, they don't want lies and bs spread"

them maybe they should put the WHO on that list too...

just sayin

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san Guine Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 12:55pm

Australia per capita health care spend= US$5425
Niger per capita health care spend= US$30

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PC.CD?most_recent_value...

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:02pm
shortenism wrote:

Haaaaaaha,.. Good to have you back Blowin.. The cracks are appearing in the line of defence to cold hard truth.

No cracks here Shorto, thought Blowin has stuffed his maths but he wasn't clear and we were referring to different things.

san Guine's picture
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san Guine Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:09pm

Each PCR costs approx A$85, so there goes Nigers' health care spend

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:09pm

That is going to be interesting re: YouTube.

As I said, since I clicked on a Tucker Carlson clip my You-tube AI has basically fed me nothing but the "Antithesis" to the narrative ever since.

Is all that going to be banned?

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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:16pm
saltyone wrote:

Hmm so Moderna is saying no to being able to treat omicron but Pfizer yes? But they both are similar in how they treat alpha cov? Seems odd.

Seems very odd saltyone , did you watch the clip of the Moderna CEO ? Considering they are both mRNA vaccines and Moderna being a bit stronger dose , its odd that these too reports from the manufacturers are so different .

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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:25pm
Roadkill wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

Can't i defend myself against constant vicious attacks from obvious protaganist. This offends you? Everyone who participates on these forums is aware of this guys continual belittling and anger, never lets the conversation go freely, attacks anyone who challenges his view of the world, and when he comes after me and says 'i'm gonna keep coming after you', you single that one tiny thing out, which if you go back through all my posts before he started attacking me, you'll see i've been nothing but pleasant. You should take a good look at yourself too dipshit.

Snowflakebluediamond...plays the victim card. Another who can give it but can't take it.
Poor widdle bd.

Victim?? If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.

gsco's picture
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gsco Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:30pm

Some funny ones from the youtube policy:
- Content that encourages the use of ... prayer, or rituals in place of medical treatment such as consulting a doctor or going to the hospital
- Claims that an approved COVID-19 vaccine will contain substances or devices meant to track or identify those who’ve received it
- Claims that COVID-19 vaccines will make people who receive them magnetic
- Content that claims that holding your breath can be used as a diagnostic test for COVID-19
- Videos alleging that if you avoid Asian food, you won’t get the coronavirus
- Videos alleging that setting off fireworks can clean the air of the virus and will prevent the spread of the virus
- Claims that COVID-19 is caused by radiation from 5G networks
- Videos alleging that the COVID-19 test is the cause of the virus
- Claims that the COVID-19 vaccines contain a microchip or tracking device

Really disappointing...I always wanted to be magnetic...and fireworks seem to be a fix all for everything in China...

(Do people actually believe this stuff...?)

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:34pm
bluediamond wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

Can't i defend myself against constant vicious attacks from obvious protaganist. This offends you? Everyone who participates on these forums is aware of this guys continual belittling and anger, never lets the conversation go freely, attacks anyone who challenges his view of the world, and when he comes after me and says 'i'm gonna keep coming after you', you single that one tiny thing out, which if you go back through all my posts before he started attacking me, you'll see i've been nothing but pleasant. You should take a good look at yourself too dipshit.

Snowflakebluediamond...plays the victim card. Another who can give it but can't take it.
Poor widdle bd.

Victim?? If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.

Snowflake AND internet tough guy. Lmao.

Come on bro..you call people names and carry on like all of us. Harden the fuck up...no one like a whiny bitch that can't take it.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:35pm
gsco wrote:

Some funny ones from the youtube policy:
- Content that encourages the use of ... prayer, or rituals in place of medical treatment such as consulting a doctor or going to the hospital
- Claims that an approved COVID-19 vaccine will contain substances or devices meant to track or identify those who’ve received it
- Claims that COVID-19 vaccines will make people who receive them magnetic
- Content that claims that holding your breath can be used as a diagnostic test for COVID-19
- Videos alleging that if you avoid Asian food, you won’t get the coronavirus
- Videos alleging that setting off fireworks can clean the air of the virus and will prevent the spread of the virus
- Claims that COVID-19 is caused by radiation from 5G networks
- Videos alleging that the COVID-19 test is the cause of the virus
- Claims that the COVID-19 vaccines contain a microchip or tracking device

Really disappointing...I always wanted to be magnetic...and fireworks seem to be a fix all for everything in China...

(Do people actually believe this stuff...?)

Yep..buleigh, shorty, sypkan, blowin and snowflake BD

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:40pm

gsco , you left out the Bali governer claiming arak or tuak ( forget which one ) would ease the symptoms if you contracted covid. Edit it was arak and here’s an article about it , my local mates were cheering this announcement but said morning tuak was better. https://coconuts.co/bali/news/governor-claims-balinese-arak-steam-therap...

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:46pm

@Roadkill. It's clear your agenda. As soon as anyone say's anything you or dicklocal disagree with, they get a character assasination.
As soon as anyone stands up for themselves after they've had strips torn off them, they're a snowflake. When they finally resort to saying, well say it to my face, THEY are the tough guy. I see it over and over again in your exchanges with anyone that doesn't agree with you.
I was polite until you extremists started calling me names, stereotyping me. Until that point, and after that, you get what you ask for.
This conversation is here so people can share information. I've posted information that has been discredited even though it was legitimate, but VL sought to delegitimize it by using his usual disruption techniques, avoiding the key points i made and a standard character assassination.
So fk yer both.
Anyway, ......
In other news, it seems even fucking Fox news is breaking ranks. hahaha
The cracks are widening.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59485508

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gsco Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:48pm

"Koster said that it takes about three days ... to recover since the first treatment."

Oh no, does that mean 3 days on the arak...?

Sounds like some nasty benders on jam jars in the bounty bilge I've been on...they didn't do me any good at all...

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 1:55pm
bluediamond wrote:

@Roadkill. It's clear your agenda. As soon as anyone say's anything you or dicklocal disagree with, they get a character assasination.
As soon as anyone stands up for themselves after they've had strips torn off them, they're a snowflake. When they finally resort to saying, well say it to my face, THEY are the tough guy. I see it over and over again in your exchanges with anyone that doesn't agree with you.
I was polite until you extremists started calling me names, stereotyping me. Until that point, and after that, you get what you ask for.
This conversation is here so people can share information. I've posted information that has been discredited even though it was legitimate, but VL sought to delegitimize it by using his usual disruption techniques, avoiding the key points i made and a standard character assassination.
So fk yer both.
Anyway, ......
In other news, it seems even fucking Fox news is breaking ranks. hahaha
The cracks are widening.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59485508

Wow..you are butthurt.

When you post bs...it gets called out as bs.
If I post bs...call me out. If VL posts bs, call him out.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:07pm

Pretty funny the inferring that those in the 3rd world are probably inundated by covid death but they’re too stupid to know it.

Underreporting!

We’ve been sold tales of overwhelmed hospitals with patients waiting i outside as they gasp their last breath ( Italy), emergency field hospitals required to stem the oversupply of patients, excess deaths leading to overflowing morgues and mass graves requiring heavy duty earth working equipment.

But somehow the African countries just haven’t noticed large volumes of their population dropping like flies.

It’s just poor reporting!

Pretty sure if a bomb in a market place in Niger or Cameroon killed 10 people you’d know about it within hours but somehow the 60,000 death discrepancy between Florida and Niger can just be dismissed as 3rd world ignorance.

Its amazing watching the mental convolutions people are willing to engage in order to make the square of their preconceived notions fit the round hole of reality.

Now I’m told that I can’t compare Australia to Niger or Cameroon because we have a better health system. This despite our better health system compounding the inequality of covid outcomes between the countries. They should have way more fatalities precisely because of our better health system and our vaccination rates but they don’t.

Obviously no one has told them this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:11pm

"Its amazing watching the mental convolutions people are willing to engage in order to make the square of their preconceived notions fit the round hole of reality."
+1 to that.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:13pm
sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:18pm

"Now I’m told that I can’t compare Australia to Niger or Cameroon because we have a better health system. This despite our better health system compounding the inequality of covid outcomes between the countries. They should have way more fatalities precisely because of our better health system and our vaccination rates but they don’t."

contortions and convolutions indeed...

there should be bodies in the street by this logic

but....

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Johknee Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:20pm
bluediamond wrote:

.... even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....

bluediamond wrote:

If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.

Another civil and polite response. I'll keep score.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:22pm

"Its amazing watching the mental convolutions people are willing to engage in order to make the square of their preconceived notions fit the round hole of reality."

As long as you recognise your own preconceived notions.

Did you read this https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/scientists-mystified-wary-africa...

It offers several viable hypotheses.

What's yours?

How do you account for it?

Not having a go, serious question.

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Blowin Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:29pm

Maybe it’s just me but I really thought that something as relevant as this would be targeted by authorities in order to circumvent the Greatest Existential Crisis of Modern History (Tm) .

Yet we here nothing because apparently being obese is healthy!

We can’t recommend or assist people with losing weight despite it being the simplest and most effective way to reduce covid deaths. No….that might constitute fat shaming and that’s not acceptable in our society. That would be bad….unlike stigmatising , segregating the tiny minority of people who are unvaccinated. It’s okay to render them unemployable, destitute pariahs.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n623

Covid-19 death rates are 10 times higher in countries where more than half of the adult population is classified as overweight, a comprehensive report from the World Obesity Federation has found.

The report analysed mortality data from Johns Hopkins University and the WHO Global Health Observatory data on obesity.1 Of the 2.5 million covid-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, 2.2 million were in countries where over half the population is classified as overweight—defined as a body mass index above 25.

Taking data from over 160 countries, the report found linear correlations between a country’s covid-19 mortality and the proportion of adults that are overweight. There is not a single example of a country with less than 40% of the population overweight that has high death rates (over 10 per 100 000), the report said. Similarly, no country with a death rate over 100 per 100 000 had less than 50% of their population overweight.

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sypkan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:29pm
Roadkill wrote:
gsco wrote:

Some funny ones from the youtube policy:
- Content that encourages the use of ... prayer, or rituals in place of medical treatment such as consulting a doctor or going to the hospital
- Claims that an approved COVID-19 vaccine will contain substances or devices meant to track or identify those who’ve received it
- Claims that COVID-19 vaccines will make people who receive them magnetic
- Content that claims that holding your breath can be used as a diagnostic test for COVID-19
- Videos alleging that if you avoid Asian food, you won’t get the coronavirus
- Videos alleging that setting off fireworks can clean the air of the virus and will prevent the spread of the virus
- Claims that COVID-19 is caused by radiation from 5G networks
- Videos alleging that the COVID-19 test is the cause of the virus
- Claims that the COVID-19 vaccines contain a microchip or tracking device

Really disappointing...I always wanted to be magnetic...and fireworks seem to be a fix all for everything in China...

(Do people actually believe this stuff...?)

Yep..buleigh, shorty, sypkan, blowin and snowflake BD

you're not even renotely funny...

witty... or original...

so you must be thick as a brick

I had hopes for you, I thought you weren't nearly as pigheaded, dogmatic, stupid and just plain lame as vicvocal in terms of comprehending, listening and forming some semblance of reality...

but nah... just as dumb, just as dogmatic

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:42pm

Exactly Blowin! The line of defence to cold hard truth has bigger cracks appearing.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:42pm
Johknee wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

.... even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....

bluediamond wrote:

If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.

Another civil and polite response. I'll keep score.

Wow! You'd really do that for me?
Thanks! Fun life you must have....shit for brains! (put that one in your tally)

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:47pm

gsco the bit ppl aren’t believing is the WHO and ‘local health authorities’ who roll out what their told by the WHO ultimately anyway..

The addition of ‘local health authorities’ was just words to keep ppl believing that ‘local health authorities’ exist. They do in theory but in practice when it comes to a deadly pandemic all is elevated up the chain.

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Johknee Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 2:51pm
bluediamond wrote:
Johknee wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

.... even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....

bluediamond wrote:

If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.

Another civil and polite response. I'll keep score.

Wow! You'd really do that for me?
Thanks! Fun life you must have....shit for brains! (put that one in your tally)

Thank you. Three. Why so angry? Keep it civil.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:00pm
Johknee wrote:
bluediamond wrote:
Johknee wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

.... even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....

bluediamond wrote:

If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.

Another civil and polite response. I'll keep score.

Wow! You'd really do that for me?
Thanks! Fun life you must have....shit for brains! (put that one in your tally)

Thank you. Three. Why so angry? Keep it civil.

I'm assuming you actually do indeed have faeces taking up the space inside of your skull, if you haven't followed the above comments and can't understand why, quite simply, i'll not back down from bullies....which is what they, and you are. Online or in person. Whatever. Otherwise, civility and politeness is all you'll ever get from me.
I'd assume most people couldn't be arsed giving it back but hey, i've got the day off due to no jab....i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions, and you sir/madam are the people doing all you can to delegitimise the asking of those questions.

Johknee's picture
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Johknee Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:10pm
bluediamond wrote:
Johknee wrote:
bluediamond wrote:
Johknee wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

.... even after repeated attempts to keep a conversation civil and polite....

bluediamond wrote:

If you or VL spoke like that to my face i definitely wouldn't be the 'victim'.

Another civil and polite response. I'll keep score.

Wow! You'd really do that for me?
Thanks! Fun life you must have....shit for brains! (put that one in your tally)

Thank you. Three. Why so angry? Keep it civil.

I'm assuming you actually do indeed have faeces taking up the space inside of your skull, if you haven't followed the above comments and can't understand why, quite simply, i'll not back down from bullies....which is what they, and you are. Online or in person. Whatever. Otherwise, civility and politeness is all you'll ever get from me.
I'd assume most people couldn't be arsed giving it back but hey, i've got the day off due to no jab....i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions, and you sir/madam are the people doing all you can to delegitimise the asking of those questions.

Four.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:14pm

boring,...

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:28pm

"All 5 people diagnosed with Omicron variant of COVID19 in Australia are fully vaccinated with some of them having had Covid before" Prof Craig Kelly.

This is now a disease of the vaccinated. You watch them wind shit back real quick. I'm sorry, but you have been lied to.

And coincidently Greg Hunt announces retirement..... Ya dont say..

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burleigh Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:25pm
shortenism wrote:

"All 5 people diagnosed with Omicron variant of COVID19 are fully vaccinated with some of them having had Covid before" Prof Craig Kelly.

This is now a disease of the vaccinated. You watch them wind shit back real quick. I'm sorry, but you have been lied to.

And coincidently Greg Hunt announces retirement..... Ya dont say..

Nah the Vaccine works sweet. A booster will fix it all.
Boosters, Boosters, Boosters everyone gets a booster.

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gragagan Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:26pm

A film clip of this thread haha

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AndyM Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:36pm

@bluediamond
"i'm part of a growing majority of people asking legitimate questions,"

How do you figure the majority of people have the same doubts you do?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 1 Dec 2021 at 3:39pm

And how do you know it's a majority?

My guess is it's a growing minority.

Which will be expressed at the ballot by Clive Palmer and Craig Kelly getting elected.

Then buyers remorse once people realise that not only can they not do what they said they would, but that they have an entirely different agenda.