COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 8:16am

They already did something similar in Singapore (pretty much leaders on everything)

"Singapore government no longer footing the bill for unvaccinated COVID-19 patients"

The Singapore government will no longer foot the medical bills for unvaccinated people who are hospitalised for COVID-19.

Until now, the government had not charged any citizens, permanent residents or long-term pass holders for their medical treatment for the virus.
But under new rules introduced this week, those who are unvaccinated by choice will have to pay their own way."

https://www.9news.com.au/world/singapore-coronavirus-update-government-w...

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Roadkill Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 8:24am
gsco wrote:

Interesting comparison Ben. Here's come countries with roughly similar population sizes as Australia:

Taiwan is doing well, and its population size is very close to Australia. They have similar very strict lockdown and border closures, one of the tightest in the world along with China, New Zealand, and Australia. I guess that along with Australia and New Zealand, Taiwan is also an island... I'm in regular communication with some friends in Taiwan.

Jeeze..Romania having lots of deaths. I think the church there and many others, whackO politicians were against vaccines and were discouraging people away from the vax. Vax hesitancy is very high…also, the health system is crappy.

Sri Lanka. Only 562k cases…yet 14k+ deaths. Wow

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Supafreak Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 8:27am

Maybe a heavier tax on junk food outlets , might change their menu , a tax exception on healthy food. Wont happen but if alcohol and smokes get hit why not junk food ?

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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 8:49am

"VL's logic.

If its media he agrees with reporting views he agrees with it's journalism and they deserve to be paid for it, even when it/s clearly just lazy click bait reporting like the rallies in Melb last week where everyone was painted as extremist because of the 0.1%

Meanwhile if it's media he doesn't agree with its not Journalism and they dont deserve to earn money they are just grifters.

So narrow minded."

Rubbish Indo Dreaming. There's some top quality journalism happening with Covid. The presentation of the data for deaths, infections, trends, vaccine rates etc is first class.
There's also highly specialised journos like Norman Swan and Casey Briggs delivering information that has stood the test of time. This is where I get my information from.
Where you are not seeing quality journalism is on YouTube, zero hedge, rebel news, bit chute etc. This is where the anti-vaxxer get their misinformation. When people like burleigh & blowin, spread this absolute bullshit on Swellnet, they are going to get called out for it.

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gsco Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 9:36am
Roadkill wrote:

Jeeze..Romania having lots of deaths. I think the church there and many others, whackO politicians were against vaccines and were discouraging people away from the vax. Vax hesitancy is very high…also, the health system is crappy.

Sri Lanka. Only 562k cases…yet 14k+ deaths. Wow

Romania has a vaccination rate of about 38%: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countrie...

(The Reuters covid tracker seems pretty useful, all the data in one place.)

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Roadkill Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 9:48am

This omicom variant seems more easily transmissible and easier to catch…but the effects are less. The SA DR who discovered it has said zero of her patients have ended up in hospital.

I don‘t know if that is due to their age or whatever..but we will find out over the next few weeks just what effects it will deliver.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:22am

Remember fear is the pandemic.

Turn off your tv and socials and look out the window. All is fine, you are safe..... repeat after me...

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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:32am
shortenism wrote:

Remember fear is the pandemic.

Turn off your tv and socials and look out the window. All is fine, you are safe..... repeat after me...

I don't fear the pandemic because I'm double vaxxed and believe in statistics. Shortenism doesn't fear the pandemic because he's a cooked moron.

I'm happy with my choices.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:33am

Let it rip

I’m with Indo, this looks like a good turn.
Will there be a safer time than now to get natural herd immunity?

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:36am

Yep positive signs so far re symptoms and effects from the new variant.

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GuySmiley Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:40am
shortenism wrote:

Remember fear is the pandemic.

Turn off your tv and socials and look out the window. All is fine, you are safe..... repeat after me...

I agree, look for positive and ignore all the noise and anger and bunker down away from it all as much as possible .... and don’t forget to go surfing

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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:48am

"Let it rip

I’m with Indo, this looks like a good turn.
Will there be a safer time than now to get natural herd immunity?"

While ID may be right, I'd actually prefer listen to the medical experts, not some random bloke on SN with no medical training. Call me crazy, but that's how I roll.

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shortenism Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 10:49am

VL, each to their own in terms of what pulls you out of fear state. If its the jab, then great. Just recognise though your perceived safety being outside of yourself and in the hands of a 3rd party, is a disempowering way to roll.

Its a bit like domestic violence cases where the traumatised victim repeatedly returns home. You've been back twice, will you back a 3rd time?

Some of us on here are your friends watching this destructive pattern your in but you aren't listening. IN fact you are standing up for your abuser.

You got this big fella.

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vladalotovodka Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 11:09am

Vlad hope is when all Greek letter used is for new virus WHO move to African Bushman alphabet. Much is hard to scare world with new much transmissible Click Click variant than is spooky Omicron.

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bluediamond Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 11:10am

Good morning indeed VL!! I take it you don't know how to use google yourself?
You have to excuse my delay, we are 3 hours behind here and all....
Firstly heres the link to the actual conference. How's your French? Oi??
The rebel website did the courtesy of translating it to English, but you won't look at it so oh well. I can't do more.

&t=3s
Here's a link to the home page of the group behind organising it.
https://reinfocovid.ca/
Here's one of the doctors that speaks during it.
https://ca.linkedin.com/in/ren%C3%A9-lavigueur-4b930248
If you're struggling with the French, just right click on the page and click translate and it will pop it into English for you.
The doctors there are all real, legitimate and either practicing currently or have retired but years of experience. Make of it what you will.
It's pretty clear to me, and not cherry picking information. This is the first time i've seen anything of it's kind of doctors actually coming out and speaking in public since the pandemic began. I'm only sharing medical advice, nothing more, nothing less.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 11:10am
Vic Local wrote:

"Let it rip

I’m with Indo, this looks like a good turn.
Will there be a safer time than now to get natural herd immunity?"

While ID may be right, I'd actually prefer listen to the medical experts, not some random bloke on SN with no medical training. Call me crazy, but that's how I roll.

I understand that’s how you roll and can see it’s because you’re not an empath. Maybe you don’t care that a few million Australians are on either a financial, emotional or educational precipice, but I do. I understand there’s a lot of moving parts to this pandemic. We are vaxxed. We’ve now crossed a line where we are starting to do more harm than good with lockdowns.

The last couple of years I didn’t personally know anyone who didn’t support the vaccine and lockdowns. Now I don’t know anyone who does support further lockdowns. The mood has changed and that’s because of the line we have crossed.
Common sense stuff

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gsco Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 11:23am

agreed shoredump.

I'd like to see Australia have the courage to keep taking forward steps towards normalcy, to keep following the plan here.

I think the changing in mood of the nation that you mention is reflected in articles like this: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-29/scott-morrison-covid-variant-omic...

One of the very few things I agree with beetroot head on:

""We can't just shut down every time there's a new variant, because there's going to be new variants, and they're going to continue on," he said.

"And, you know, the economy won't work and society won't accept it if we just keep shutting the show down.

"So I think there will be a sort of a tempered, sober approach to the assessment of what we do next.""

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:20pm
shoredump wrote:

Let it rip

I’m with Indo, this looks like a good turn.
Will there be a safer time than now to get natural herd immunity?

so basically they're well?

'it's not even just the flu bro'

now...

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Ape Anonymous Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:14pm

(dumb) Ape have questions:
What happens if overuse of vaccines during this pandemic results in an acceleration of infectious and virulent strains that aren't recognised by the specified induced immune response, and consequently, viral resistance? Will we require a different treatment altogether?
https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/the-last-post

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:27pm

you gotta wonder how they are even finding cases....

mandatory tests for travel, work, etc.?

which comes back to gscs's post a few days ago...

have we now developed so many systems and such hypervigilance we're essentially obsessing over a new but basically not dangerous coronavirus?

...a 'novel' common cold?

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:25pm

Sykpan no, here's the new variant on the original virus. Not just some random corona virus..

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:35pm

I know that craig, but...

essentially...

time to demote 'the virus'?

to just another background virus...

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AndyM Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:43pm
freeride76 wrote:

I came in the other way Andy.
Up North Creek, under Missingham Bridge and across the skate park, to the back of the amphitheatre.

Do you think my assessment was fair enough?

I didn’t get to listen to any of the speakers, I was just passing through quickly while I was working.
With that in mind, here are some thoughts.

First of all, underlying all of this, is a profound distrust of authority.
As I’ve said before this is understandable and a long time in the making and will have legs – it will be impossible to put the genie back in the bottle. In certain ways, a steadily growing number of people see government and other authorities as illegitimate and see their actions as reaching too far into the lives of people, as evidenced by “I don’t co-parent with the government” placards.

The idea that “laws don’t apply to those that understand the real truth” appears to be a very American style of politics.
I’m kind of surprised but then again I’m not by the rally organiser’s apparent involvement in QAnon and the rest of it.

It seems this whole style of hyper-libertarian individual politics has migrated from the States and at the same time will be impossible for mainstream media to counter due to obvious online subcultures.

Also I see this “movement” as self-strengthening, as each new “event” whether Covid or otherwise, will reinforce their narrative.

So now, we have a movement that provides perfect fertile ground for grifters, bullshit artists and the confused.
Fertile ground for the Wild West which is the wellness industry, a place of post-truth and straight out lies.
Again, that quote from Mason Taylor reeks of entitlement and narcissism which in my opinion are hallmarks of certain parts of the postmodern world in which you supposedly get to choose your own reality, a concept intertwined with the idea of wellness.
And his attacking of "they", the elites and those in power, is the definition of populism.

FR you say “To be honest that level of polarisation concerns me.”
As it should all of us.

In an ostensibly liberal democratic society, how are we supposed to reach any kind of consensus for decision making when we don't even have a basis to begin discussions.
Fundamental definitions can be made up or ignored, as can any other sort of information, whether it’s got the weight of peer reviewed science behind it or not.

All to suit your ideology, belief system or “reality’.
Interesting times ahead, no doubt.

Politics.
We’ve already seen signs that Scomo is wary of condemning this bullshit due to votes of course. This failure of leadership may not come back to bite him in the short term, but a continuation of it will damage the country in a profound way.
And obviously it will feed ideologues, extremists and populists of all stripes.
At the same time, due to preferential voting in the lower house, we will stay with the two major parties, while large swathes of society become more illiberal and intolerant, even as these same people claim to be socially progressive.
Australian society will continue to atomise, and this is without even mentioning economics i.e. wage stagnation and unaffordable housing.

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Craig Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:37pm

We're not at that stage yet but it'd be good if we got there soon..

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 12:43pm

agreed... as the chick on abc this morning basically said...

it would be prudent to see how this variant pans out for a few weeks with restrictions in place...

but then, if it's not a danger... it's time to shut that viclocal wanker and his fear mongering mates down...

that's not exactly what she said... but basically...

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freeride76 Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 1:00pm

"Also I see this “movement” as self-strengthening, as each new “event” whether Covid or otherwise, will reinforce their narrative."

Yep, and the fact that all opposition to the world view are now brainwashed sheeple.

The 60 year old Nana who told me to stop watching the news and being a brainwashed idiot etc etc.

She has no idea I've been exposed to this wellness thinking for decades.
No idea I've got close mates out the back of Nimbin and Mullum who would look at Shorto as a mainstream stooge.

She had dismissed me in an instant and thus there was no need to question her views.

That happens on both sides.

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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 1:13pm

Blue Diamond.
What a complete clown you are.
Your links are a complete joke mate.
I clicked on the re-info Covid link and it's all in French, but they do list three partners on their site. All three are anti-lockdown anti-vax organisations that are so farcical it's hilarious. And all three have prominent "Donate to us" buttons on their web pages.
What a humiliation Blue Diamond. You'll believe pretty much anything mate.
BTW if a Nigerian Prince offers to give you $10,000,000US if you send him your bank details, that's a scam too.

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gsco Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 1:29pm
Craig wrote:

Sykpan no, here's the new variant on the original virus. Not just some random corona virus..

Craig are you sure about that?

If you plot all the “random” variants of coronaviruses and covid19 and its ‘variants’ on a flower chart will they not all appear to just be variants of each other, all with significant overlap/intersection in characteristics, and all with various spike mutations of each other, etc?? Isn’t that why they’re all called coronaviruses?

Btw AndyM I like your comment.

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andy-mac Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 1:14pm

But where does this division eventually take us as a society?
Starts as arguments in forums such as this, ends in violence on the street???
I hope not....
No winners there.... 乁( •_• )ㄏ

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freeride76 Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 1:22pm

Hopefully compulsory voting keeps that centre majority and the extremes won't flourish like the US.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 1:45pm

Compulsory voting is a big plus.
And I’ve also been watching this unfold over the last 30 years - it’s been absolutely intriguing.

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 2:05pm
freeride76 wrote:

Hopefully compulsory voting keeps that centre majority and the extremes won't flourish like the US.

I'd say the centre is most certainly holding DESPITE the extremes flourishing...

both here and even the US

despite the alarmists and totally biased no platforming types on here... most people have pretty moderate views and are quite sensible on just about every issue

I'd say a convincing majority most people still veer left on environmental issues and social issues, the doomsayers are all just about having the extremes of their agenda undermined, and the gratutious relishing right are just enjoying a little correction...

pratically no one is buying into or accepting the extremes of these arguments. how the fake left manages the control of information - which it seems to be almost exclusively gaining power over - will determine how things pan out into the future and if the perception that the authorurtorian ('communist') tendencies of the left are out of control or not

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 2:36pm

but I must say, counting on the fake left to temper their tendencies re. discourse control and what is deemed 'appropriate' doesn't give me much hope...

that's before corona came along...

and now, after 2 years of corona misinformation from all angles...

with even the moderate left seeming to accept the 'neccesity' of a full nazi propaganda man regime of over controlling so called 'dangerous' information... we are now in crazy time unchartered waters...

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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 3:20pm

"with even the moderate left seeming to accept the 'neccesity' of a full nazi propaganda man regime of over controlling so called 'dangerous' information... we are now in crazy time unchartered waters..."
Oh please sypkan. Nobody is "controlling you" or preventing you from publishing all sorts of covid misinformation. You've been doing it all pandemic. Nobody is stopping the freedumb marches in Melbourne and other cities, where all sorts of village idiots are saying all sorts of ridiculous things.
What you object to is people calling out your bullshit.

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 3:28pm

absolute bullhit vicvocal

again...

it's only absolute zealots like you that would even attempt to argue the whole thing hasn't been stage managed

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Roadkill Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 3:33pm
sypkan wrote:

absolute bullhit vicvocal

again...

it's only absolute zealots like you that would even attempt to argue the whole thing hasn't been stage managed

Take the tinfoil off ya head Spykan. You sound more unhinged than usual.

The academy award goes to, The Covid Opera.

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 3:48pm

yeh ok...

legitimate scientists like brett weinstein haven't had their videos taken down off youtube...

people haven't been referring to ivermectin as 'I' to avoid censorship...

the lab leak theory stories were not removed from facebook for over 12 months - even though mark zuckerberg said so...

and there's no major agreement amongst the big media players including nyt, wa-po, bbc, etc. and government and big pharma despite it being public knowledge...

ok...

champs

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fitzroy-21 Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 3:51pm
Roadkill wrote:

The academy award goes to, The Covid Opera.

To which you play a major part in.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 4:08pm

Slamming borders shut due to Omricon? I thought we hit the vax milestone??

Scamwatch

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 4:16pm
fitzroy-21 wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

The academy award goes to, The Covid Opera.

To which you play a major part in.

the fat lady?

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sypkan Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 4:16pm

one of them...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 4:19pm

And the tinfoil hat mob are off in the batshit crazy stakes, sypkan got away quickly and shortenism is with him stride to stride. Fitzroy 21 has settled into a nice rhythm one back...

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fitzroy-21 Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 4:21pm

I was thinking the best boy or grip.

Can't be fluffer, as VicMoron has excelled in that role.

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bluediamond Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 4:54pm

Vic local, you asked for a link other than Rebel News, i provided you with one. You asked for proof they were real doctors. I provided evidence.
The hatred and anger you continue to bristle with on here tells me you're a very sad individual. I can't help that, but maybe staying off your keyboard for a period of time can.
Done with you, it's futile trying to have an open honest discussion with you.

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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 5:03pm

My responses to bluediamond are in CAPS
Vic local, you asked for a link other than Rebel News, i provided you with one. IT WAS IN FRENCH. You asked for proof they were real doctors. NO I DIDN'T. I WANTED TO ASSESS IF THEY WERE CREDIBLE. I provided evidence. NO YOU DIDN'T. ALL YOU PROVIDED WAS A LINK (IN FRENCH) TO A SITE THAT HAD PARTNERED WITH MULTIPLE ANTI-VAXXER GROUPS WHO WERE AFTER DONATIONS. YOUR LINKS WERE GARBAGE. THEY WERE EMBARRASSING.
The hatred and anger you continue to bristle with on here tells me you're a very sad individual. LAUGHING AT YOU AS I TYPE. I can't help that, but maybe staying off your keyboard for a period of time can.
Done with you, it's futile trying to have an open honest discussion with you. I'M NOT DONE WITH YOU CHAMP. YOU POST ANTI-VAXXER DRIVEL, IT GETS EXPOSED. THAT'S HOW THE SYSTEM WORKS.

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bluediamond Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 5:04pm

The fact these are real doctors and medical professionals standing together in a room making a statement SHOULD at the very least be acknowledged and discussed in a polite manner.
I've proven it's validity. There's no tricks. Doesn't matter which websites are posting it, the fact is it happened, there's video footage of it, there's news articles about it in French. In fact there's an article about that very doctor being immediately discredited by 5 Quebec doctors saying that his information is false and misleading and he doesn't represent all the other doctors. No bloody surprises there.
I mean why wouldn't you wanna stick your neck on the line as a doc, get ridiculed, ostracized, probably has his family living in fear now, he's probably looking over his shoulder. All for what? Just to be on the internet. Think deeper about it. If these doctors are going against their gag orders, surely, they must think what they have to say is too important.

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bluediamond Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 5:07pm

VL just proving my point over and over. Laughable that you're so tough on your keyboard.
Really, take a break champ.
btw, i did try to walk you through how to use the translate function on your computer, but in your rage you must have overlooked it.
How dare the French speak French!! And VL not be able to bloody read it!!! Sacre Bleu!!!

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Vic Local Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 5:30pm

Whatever Champ. you just keep coming up with one laughable source after another. Who's next, Craig Kelly and Clive Palmer?
Only a complete idiot can't see that countries like Australia, Canada, and NZ (with high vaccine rates) are in much better shape than many parts of Europe, Africa, and America with woefully low vaccination rates. Face facts champ, being an anti-vaxxer puts themselves and others in danger. I hope they get a medicare surcharge and/or their private medical insurance goes through the roof. Why should sensible people subsidise the idiots? Let the free market reign I say.
Just watch what happens in Europe this fourth wave. Covid is going to rip through the un-vaccinated. That's would have been Australia's future if clowns like you got their way.

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bluediamond Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 5:34pm

bum [email protected] vic(toughguy)local

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overthefalls Monday, 29 Nov 2021 at 5:37pm

I asked my father and my brother-in-law, who are both doctors, about videos like the one BD posted. They just shrugged and said that of course there is a tiny minority of doctors who have unconventional views. Simple as that.