COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 11:31am

This case has "super spreader" written all over it.

10:45am
NSW Health has issued this alert – if you are in the Newcastle area, or have been out and about in Newcastle, have a look at these venues:

Since our alert last night (5 August, 8.15pm), a second case of COVID-19 has been confirmed in Newcastle; a close contact of the teenager announced yesterday. The District is continuing to investigate the source of that case’s infection.

This latest case is a male in his 20s.

Hunter New England Local Health District is urging anyone who attended the following venues at the specified times to immediately self-isolate and seek testing:

Bennett Hotel, Hamilton – Friday 31 July, from 5.30pm to 10.00pm
Greenroof Bar and Restaurant, Hamilton – Friday 31 July, from 10.00pm to 12 midnight
The Hopsmith Sports Bar, Wests New Lambton – Sunday 2 August, from 5.00pm to 7.30pm.

Hunter New England Health also urges any patrons who visited the following venues at the times specified to be alert for symptoms, and if any develop to get tested and self-isolate immediately:

Queens Wharf Hotel – Saturday 1 August from 9.30pm to 11.00 pm
Sydney Junction Hotel, Hamilton – Saturday 1 August, from 12 midnight to 1.30am Sunday 2 August
McDonald Jones Stadium – Sunday 2 August, 7.30pm to end of game, Newcastle Jets match.

This type of spread is so fucking predictable it's not funny, but Gladys caved into the pub owner lobby and kept the bars open. EVERY FUCKING COUNTRY THAT HAS RE-OPENED BARS HAS SEEN THIS HAPPEN.

OK Indo Dreaming is this still Dan's fault?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 12:54pm

Of course it's Dan's fault. If the fucker hadn't been in contact from some fucker in Vic, this would never have happened :)

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 3:06pm

Thanks Fitroy-21. you've perfectly demonstrated what modern day conservatism is all about. If you wanted to solve the medical problem, you'd be looking forward and screaming at Gladys B to close the pubs. You'd be screaming at Clive Palmer to stop his insane High Court Challenge, you'd be yelling at Dutton to stop importing covid 19 people into the country. You'd be demanding Stuart Robert fix the fucked up app. And you'd be begging Hunt to fix aged care up in NSW. But the only problem you lot have is not being in power, so instead of solving the medical problem, you find a scapegoat.
Problems like climate change, Ruby Princess, aged care, and rampant corruption get ignored or covered up. But when they start costing the LNP votes, they leap into action with a marketing campaign.
So keep pointing your finger Fitzroy 21, but don't expect that will solve the country's medical, or the LNP's, political problems. People are wising up to the fact, the LNP is basically a do nothing, lazy marketing organisation.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 3:21pm

New page better give todays update.

Yeah Vic local, NSW needs to be careful, but still a big difference in numbers.

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 3:35pm

Wow indo dreaming. Using your logic I could point to the covid figures in the USA and say, Vic needs to be careful but still a big difference in numbers.
And I look forward to your commentary about the freedom rally in Melbourne on Sunday. Will you be holding these people to the same standard as the BLM protestors? These fuckwits have been taking their cue from shitheads like Sam Newman and tim smith, not that you’d hold those loudmouths to account. .

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 3:49pm

Not sure if art (Caspar Jonquil) is imitating life (Indo) or life is imitating art.

https://www.facebook.com/madashelltv/videos/go-to-our-instagram-madashel...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 3:58pm

Caspar Dreaming

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 4:00pm

@Vic

Never heard of it and google doesn't bring up anything recent, but IMHO any rally/protest anywhere in Australia should be banned for now, anyone that tries to hold them should be arrested.

Subject matter is irrelevant .

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 4:04pm

With you on that one Indo, really really not the time for any sort of protest. You'd hope the organisers have enough sense to realise this, but evidently many don't.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 4:16pm

Do you ever wonder where these protestors get their ideology from Caspar dreaming? There’s no shortage of High profile conservative Flogs who have been pushing an anti lockdown message for the last six months.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 4:26pm

My post went straight over your head VL, and I got just the reaction I was expecting from you.

I actually believe you haven't got a comical bone in your body.

Carry on.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 4:48pm

You beat me Fitzy- I was going to gently point that out but there's no talking sense to a zealot.

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indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:14pm

@Vic

It would be interesting to see the demographic at these rallies, im sure there are many on the right like that, but there is also many on the left like that too.

I see it all over social media, the typical anti government, anti authority, anti capitalism left types.

It's just like all that conspiracy theory crap, seems both sides are into it.

I don't agree or support those views at all, to me they are all just nutters.

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:15pm

And attack dog will respond in 3......2.......1.......

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:48pm

Yes Caspar Dreaming, you are right. There are a lot of dopey hippie anti-vaxxer types at these rallies. They mix with the Karens, the Jim Penman's, the social media wellness influencers, and the nazis, so it's a pretty weird mix. Here's the point, who's pushing the anti-lockdown agenda? I will give you a hint, it's not anyone on the left side of politics.
To me, it looks like you're pointing the finger at some Mullumbimbi crystal seller while completely ignoring the high profile fuckwits like Alan Jones, Tim Smith, and Sam Newman who are pushing out seriously dangerous messages to very large audiences.
But hey, being a conservative, it's always the tiny things that are the threat. Remember when they announced Coon Cheese was getting renamed and your mob had a little tantrum about it? All over a cheese brand.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:42pm

No mention of the idiocy in wanting to rename the cheese in the first place?

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geek's picture
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geek commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:43pm

Idiocy or no idiocy, who gives a fuck it’s cheese

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:49pm

zenagain. I'm tipping you're not indigenous. And there's that anger over the name of a block of cheese. Still fighting the big battles.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:58pm

"It was first launched in 1935 by Fred Walker. Coon cheese is named after its American creator, Edward William Coon (1871–1934) of Philadelphia, who patented a method, subsequently known as the Cooning process, for fast maturation of cheese via high temperature and humidity."

No mate, I'm not indigenous. But without going into my life story, I've been very close to my indigenous uncles, aunts and cousins since before I could talk. Evidence of which is dotted around these forums over the years.

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Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:08pm

I know the history of the brand name, but the word "Coon" has been used as a deeply offensive slur word to indigenous people for decades.
The cheese company understands the name is offensive to many people and changed it. Who the fuck are you to tell a private company what to call their cheese? When it comes to racist terms, you don't get to choose what is and isn't offensive.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:13pm

Fark, I go away for 24hrs and you guys are arguing about cheese.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:18pm

No Spuddups, just the low hanging fruit.....

mattlock's picture
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mattlock commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:19pm

Very funny Spuddups.
Of coarse you Know its not about the cheese [or the tanks Zen]. Its about the people.
VL. I respect your views and all, but try not to make an enemy of Zen as well.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:29pm

I'm not Vics enemy contrary to what he may think. The fact of the matter is it's people like Vic who for some reason carry this guilt around like a yoke. I dunno, are you trying to atone for something Vic? What have you done in your past that makes you so zealous in the present?

All my life I've eaten Coon cheese. I'd be a liar if I didn't say the negative connotation hasn't entered my mind once or twice. But, on the flipside, I've never made a ham, cheese and tomato sanga and immediately thought to myself I'm gonna gather a posse together and look for some poor old sod for good ol' fashioned lynching.

I just see it as delicious cheese.

Edit: Maybe they should rename the bloke that created it?

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Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:43pm

Cheers is no laughing matter for some people. I went into this famous cheese shop in Manchester once and asked the lady for “Wallace and Grommet cheese” because I’d forgotten it was called Wensleydale. She just gave me this stony stare that nearly melted my face and informed me that there were customers waiting behind me. I ended up buying the best custard pie I’ve ever tasted and called it a day. My brother and supposed wing-man meanwhile had shuffled out the door while pretending not to know me. As you imagine I didn’t share my pie with him.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:46pm

whoaaa hang on a sec, they re-named coon cheese? I must of missed this.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:48pm

It's now called Cracker Barrel.

Hang on- isn't that a racist slur?

I'm confused.

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goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:51pm

What about white bread? Any change to that?

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:51pm

Also the Coon thing reminds me of a funny story. My dad had this German friend named Reiner Coon. He used to bring his family over to NZ for a holiday from time to time and they would visit us. My dad was also at that time working for a government department and had befriended a very well respected elder of a large Maori family. Anyway, we had the Maori family over for dinner one night, and unbeknown to me the Germans were due for dinner the following weekend. I asked my mum if we were having and guests for dinner that weekend and she said enthusiastically that “The Coons are coming again!” I spent a week thinking my mum had gone mad and joined the KKK or something until the weekend rolled around and the Germans turned up. That was some funny shit right there I can tell you.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:53pm

Honky-toast now Goof.

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Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:55pm

"The fact of the matter is it's people like Vic who for some reason carry this guilt around like a yoke"
Wow. Is that what you really think Zen? Why would I feel guilty about the name of cheese?
I support the name change but it's got nothing to do with guilt. When indigenous people are offended by the word "coon", it's just basic decency not to use it. The cheese company gets this very obvious point.
You're argument seems to be, I know the name coon cheese is offensive to people, but I want it to stay because that's what I've always called that cheese. That is a very very flimsy argument, especially because the actual cheese company aren't even defending the old name. Anyway, good luck with the sandwich making. I think you'll find they taste the same, no matter what Coon Cheese is called in the future. I hope the name change doesn't crush your spirit too much.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 7:37pm
zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 8:03pm

Actually Vic, I was just referring to everything about you in general. The need to shout everybody down. The way you twist and turn and obfuscate to ram your argument home. Empty vessels and all that. You're so rigid you couldn't see that Fitzy was having a laugh. Everything to you is an attack.

You're probably a real nice guy in person but to me there's just something suss about people like you. Like I asked, is there something in your past that you're ashamed of? Are you atoning for something?

In regards to the cheese, to me honestly, it's just a name, named after a real person.

Wouldn't it be ironic if William Coon was black.

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fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 8:14pm

Vic Local just believes he is an authority on everything. As you pointed out Zen, a complete zealot.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 8:25pm

Zen. I just won't tolerate racism and anti-expert opinions that is seriously dangerous to human health. I'm only shouting down racists and people with silly opinions.
Mate, I've lost 90% of my income during covid19 and that means my casual staff have missed out on work too. So you'll have to forgive me for not cutting people slack when they play the blame game so they can ignore shitty actions from their side of politics, and then encourage others to not social distance. It's about getting good outcomes for society. And if you think I'm wrong, have a look at the shit show in the USA.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 10:12pm

Vic, I don't think you're wrong (all the time), it's your delivery.

And I feel for you regarding Corona. I took a huge hit to my business too insofar that I have had to pay people out of my personal savings to keep them going. Also, I've had to borrow money that I've put away in case we have to close up again. I'm so over this whole Corona shit show. Luckily we were in pretty good shape at the start of the year so we've been able to weather the storm, I just hope it doesn't go on much longer.

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Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 10:25pm

You may call me a zealot if you want Fitzroy but given the benefit of hindsight my opinions on Covid 19 have been absolutely spot on. If governments took my advice, and people distanced to my standards Australia would be in NZ’s position right now.
I’m absolutely comfortable about shouting down some of the “let the virus rip” opinions that were floating around on this forum. And in a month when NSW gets whacked, my criticisms of conservative governments who still have bars open and still have a fucked app will be entirely valid.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 10:57pm

I called you a zealot, not Fitzy.

But if the shoe fits...

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Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 8:10am

You both called me a zealot and it was in relation to standing up against racism. Badge of honour comrades.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 8:19am

That's one of your skoll words/terms.

And again, it's not your motivation that's in question- it's your delivery.

You'll catch more flies with honey however the saying goes. But sadly those words are lost on the likes of you.

Actually genuine question- do you think you've changed one persons way of thinking on here, even in the slightest?

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AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 9:03am

He's pushed me away from the path of righteousness and further towards the evils of conservatism.

I long for the sweet taste of progressive honey but at every step I'm assaulted by the pungent stench of vinegar, like boots that have been peeled off the feet after a long, hot, arduous march.

inzider's picture
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inzider commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 9:01am

Here in NZ we are still having selfish cunts put us on the edge community transmission again. People escaping isolation quarantine hotels etc. Diplomats can come and go as they please. Hollywood stars are here making films. Auckland airport is one of the busiest in the world right now.
We may be sitting pretty in some people's eyes but we are dodging bullets all over the joint. Russian roulette in some cases. What happened in Victoria could have easily happened here, and still could happen.
When I got covid induced lay off my FIFO job in OZ I spent 2 weeks in Quarantine isolation with muppet security just like Melbourne. Blame Dan all you want Indo dream cone , it's the individual responsibility of each citizen that needs to make it better

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 9:01am

Actually genuine question- do you think you've changed one persons way of thinking on here, even in the slightest?
I don't think I've changed the minds of blowin, Indo, and that Barwon Heads lunatic etc, but I hope I've highlighted the massive flaws in their arguments, so people are not seduced by them.
If their opinions became commonplace, Australia would be like the USA which is experiencing rampant racism, a raging virus, and a 33% drop in GDP. I don't think any of the "neutrals" on Swellnet want that tragedy in Oz.
The dangerous opinions from the usual suspects need to be mocked and marginalised for the good of the country. There's also a line I don't cross. One commenter was making some crazy racist statements and when he was called out for them, he put up his hand, apologised and said he was struggling mentally with lock down. I stopped criticising him and wished him well, and so did many others who were offended by his commentary.
The reason I'm an anti-racist / covid zealot is because the victims have done absolutely nothing wrong. Think of the medical professionals putting themselves in danger to help others during a pandemic. Think of 9 year Quaden (the brave indigenous kid with dwarfism who was bullied, and then re-bullied by a news limited fuckwit). I don't do this to convince idiots they are wrong. I do this to minimise shit situations in the future for people who simply deserve better.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 9:06am

Hey VL, it appears pretty obvious you haven't taken note of some of my views, or others, in previous post's about covid and the paths we perhaps should have taken even though you have commented in the positive. It is your pig headed approach and attack of others without any regard for their views or opinion. And the constant narrative on bigotry and racism gets tiring. We get it, we have been reading about it forever from you almost daily on here that you are passionate about it.
Maybe take a small step back and think about the world is not completely black and white and others have views to be respected even though you may not agree.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 9:10am

Vic’s big on black and white though he’d prefer to call it “the colour of colour” and white if you don’t mind.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 9:54am

Vic, i'm not seeing this tsunami of hate on these pages that you speak of nor this piling on of little big man Qaden.

I mostly see a bunch of blokes (with the odd sly lady lurking around I hope) that come from all walks of life bound together by a common interest. If we all agreed with each other how boring would that be?

I also like these forums because believe it or not, despite my job, there's actually not that much English in my life. I like to keep the tools sharp for want of a better term. Also, I learn so much cool shit on here, you'd be surprised. So many smart cookies out there in the ether that very rarely a day goes by without learning something new.

But, I'm not gonna join the pile on to you Vic, if there's anything you've taught me is that it's sometimes better to bite my tongue and to check myself if I think I'm being a wanker. So thankyou for that.

Also, you could probably cut Indo a bit of slack- you know he's somewhere on the Autism spectrum don't you? He's a good guy and like you, it's all in the delivery.

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factotum's picture
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factotum commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 10:12am

"Also, you could probably cut Indo a bit of slack- you know he's somewhere on the Autism spectrum don't you?"

Well, you do learn something every day!

Is this true?

He's certainly no Rainman.

troppo dichotomy's picture
troppo dichotomy's picture
troppo dichotomy commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 10:16am

Like Rainman but without any math's skills..........

zenagain's picture
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zenagain commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 10:19am

So he said teacher my teacher.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DwAwNNHaW8

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factotum's picture
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factotum commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 10:30am

Cartman*?

"Cartman’s behavioral traits - pathological self-absorption, proneness to delusions of grandeur and episodes of mania, a liability to turn angry or spiteful seemingly without provocation - suggest a mood disorder along the lines of Bipolar II or borderline personality disorder."

*this fucken shit show still going? It was boring 22.75 years ago.