COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
It had its moments.
Also, you could probably cut Indo a bit of slack- you know he's somewhere on the Autism spectrum don't you?"
"Well, you do learn something every day!
Is this true?
He's certainly no Rainman."
Well I've just said i most likely am, but i could just be wanting to have some special label like everyone else these days.
Thanks Zen, but i can take Vic's crap, i obviously like to stir him a little :D
BTW. Saw in today's news those crazy anti lockdown, anti vaxers that had planned protest have already been arrested in Vicco.
"Victorian anti-lockdown protest organisers raided and arrested before dangerous demonstration"
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/victorian-anti-lockdown-protest-organisers-r...
or here
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-melbourne-protest...
"Well I've just said i most likely am, but i could just be wanting to have some special label like everyone else these days."
Swellnet's 'Village Idiot' is a special label you've earned over the journey, Info. Embrace it, champ.
Yew!
Jeez Indo, i go away for two hours and you've just shot both feet off.
You could have just said nothing and kept everyone second guessing.
Anyway mate, carry on. You're ok in my books.
blip
Ok whoops sorry Zen, honestly has always been my weakness...i guess its not a bad trait to have, i remember as a grommet i told my X girlfriend i did the dirty on her and all my mates thought i was crazy.
What a stand-up guy!
Gee, I wonder why people are organising idiotic 'freedom' protests and why so many victorians are not complying with quarantine measures?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeO4KmeVoAEOIUW?format=jpg&name=large
That's just left nonsense JQ, and if you do get Covid 19 and it's more than just a slight sniffle, a couple of pills of hydroxy-chloroquine fixes the problem. Dr Craig Kelly told me.
JQ I agree those videos don't help but its naive to think that is the cause, it's a global movement driven more by social media in the same way BLM protest were.
Apparently on their social media page for Melb they only had 100 confirmed going and 400 interested but in Europe they have had big numbers tens of thousands of people on the streets for the same rallies..
If you think it's limited in anyway to the right wing thing you are completely kidding yourself, do a search on Facebook and go check out some of the peoples profiles involved and see what they post on there feeds etc, you will quickly see that there is no pattern many are obviously right wing, some hard to tell, some very left wing, very anti government, anti capitalism, social justice warriors types, and all ages.
I know it first had i have friends that are very left leaning new age types but fully believe all the conspiracy theory anti vaxer crap and just believe its all a hoax and all this is some plan to take away their freedoms.
Anyway here is a link to the Europe rallies https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/08/01/thousands-berlin-protest...
Those anti-lockdown types are just doing what Sam Newman, Tim Smith, Alan Jones, Credlin etc have been encouraging people to do for the last 5 months.
Sure they have nutty ideas about 5G and the Magnum Carta, and they deserve to be mocked, but just for once, I'd like to hear Caspar Dreaming say something like "Tim Smith should pull his head in because he's a danger to people's health".
“
“Ok whoops sorry Zen, honestly has always been my weakness...i guess its not a bad trait to have, i remember as a grommet i told my X girlfriend i did the dirty on her and all my mates thought i was crazy.“
Wouldn’t an honest bloke just not cheat on his missus???
Ha ha ha crikey you crack me up Indo. I love this thread
Info dreaming slash nightmare...
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/aug/07/andrew-bolts-views-diagnos...
Has this site been posted?
"This site brings together fragments of information and data that are technically but not practically available to the Australian public, and presents them clearly, without editorialising or projections."
https://www.covid19data.com.au
I asked if they could add data on hospitalisatioms and co-morbidities and the woman said they will. It's volunteer run, open source and a work in progress.
The leading c19 co-morbidities are obesity, diabetes and heart disease, all preventable (for the most part).
Based on that it would be good to have national conversations about general health.
Be healthy - clean food (not processed), sunshine, laughter, social connections, staying mobile, adequate rest and sleep, purpose in life - is a good start and is missing (beyond cursory head nods) from the c19 chatter.
Can someone point me to any data of ongoing conditions/complications from those who tested positive for c19?
I've heard anecdotal stuff about lung, brain and other organ issues but I'd like to see documented numbers/reports.
Are there any up to date c19 numbers that can be used effectively to decide on a strategy?
The importance of total case numbers seem over stated if the majority don't have symptoms.
What's important is the demographics of those who are hospitilised. How many are hospitilised and what was their health like before hand?
We know that the aged, particularly those in aged care homes are at higher risk than general pop. Knowing that is a start.
What about the rest of the population, are they at risk of hospitalisation?
If so, why? Do they have underlying conditions? What is the recovery rate and subsequent health of those hospitalised?
There is some data saying those who are obese, diabetic or have heart disease are at risk.
A lockdown seems like it will create the conditions that contribute to obesity, diabetes and heart disease.
If all the above is correct, what is the right strategy?
What is being done to reduce the incidences of obesity, diabetes and heart disease? Reducing those numbers should prevent hospitalisations in the future, whether for c19 or other viruses (and solely for those conditions themselves).
Further, are there gurantees in place that restrictions will end? Or does the government have the legal right to continue or extend them indefinitely? What oversights, or oversight body, is in place?
Can some form of restriction, say cap on numbers or social distancing rules, become permanent?
If particular demographics can be identified as being at risk, can they be helped? Isolated with community support? Can everyone else go back to their work and social lives and visit their families?
Are these things being discussed?
That article supports the importance of a national conversation around self-responsibility for one's health as an individual and at a community level.
"Many infected people still clear the virus after a few weeks of nasty symptoms. But others don’t. Maybe they initially inhaled a large dose of virus. Maybe their innate immune systems were already weakened through old age or chronic disease."
Obesity, heart disease, high blood pressure and type 2 diabetes are all chronic diseases that are preventable.
"That system may be vexingly complex, but it is also both efficient and resilient in a way that our society could take lessons from. It prepares in advance, and learns from its past. It has many redundancies in case any one defense fails. It acts fast, but has checks and balances to prevent overreactions. And, in the main, it just works. Despite the multitude of infectious threats that constantly surround us, most people spend most of the time not being sick."
So let's spend more time not being sick by avoiding chronic preventable diseases.
We can also reshape society. Being cooped up on top of each other in aged care and apartments lends itself to ingesting larger doses of c19 or another virus. It also lends itself to a less mobile community... independant mobility is a key indicator of health.
If we can quickly pause the economic and social systems for a virus, then we can pause and focus global and local attention on reshaping economic sytems, social structures and the motivations that underpin societies.
It's been about six months in Aus, longer in other countries, talking about cases, numbers, distancing and lockdowns. Whereas this is a terrific opportunity to talk about physical, mental and emotional health, about healthy communities & industries, work hours, time for families, built environments conducive to lowering tension and pace, etc.
Otherwise, nothing will change and we'll just wait around for the next virus to be an excuse for lockdowns and social distancing and the pattern will reinforce and replicate itself.
Yes, all very sensible and commendable, Patrick...
Then see the 'national conversation' (via megaphone) in my linked post above from yesterday.
How to combat THAT?
G'day facto, it begins by talking about it with each other. Like health, why wait for someone else to fix things? We can have these discussions at a community and social level.
It won't happen overnight, it's a process and it begins by recognising that we have self responsibility. Society, communities, the nation, are made up of individuals.
"The American cult of the individual denies not just community but the very idea of society. No one owes anything to anyone. All must be prepared to fight for everything: education, shelter, food, medical care. What every prosperous and successful democracy deems to be fundamental rights — universal health care, equal access to quality public education, a social safety net for the weak, elderly, and infirmed — America dismisses as socialist indulgences, as if so many signs of weakness.
How can the rest of the world expect America to lead on global threats — climate change, the extinction crisis, pandemics — when the country no longer has a sense of benign purpose, or collective well-being, even within its own national community?"
A sobering read.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-...
Sobering read indeed facto.
"That social democracy will never take hold in the United States may well be true, but, if so, it is a stunning indictment, and just what Oscar Wilde had in mind when he quipped that the United States was the only country to go from barbarism to decadence without passing through civilization."
Most of those things you are talking about Patrick you can trace back to the breakdown of the traditional family structure.
Once there was balance but that balance has been lost.
Once one partner (generally the male) went to work the other stayed home and looked after family and had time to cook healthy meals, spend time with children ensuring a good upbringing etc, even care for parents as they got to old to care for themselves.(rather than put them in aged care)
This structure was created from early days where man went out hunting and women stayed closer to home or spent time at home, the community aspect was there as people banded together in villages to support each other.
You can still see this structure in many areas of Indonesia and the community is still there especially in small villages.
Where we went really wrong was when both parents started working, the effect is, once some couples started doing this to get ahead and pay off their house etc, everyone had to start doing it because the prices of property etc were pushed up, if you didn't do it you were left behind, but its all come at an expense of other things.
Theres no going back though, it is what it is, and will most likely get worst not better.
Caspar Indo, dreaming of a 1950s utopia. Tell us Caspar, when women working in the public service get married, do you think they should have to resign like the good old days? I mean someone has to look after the kids and have dinner on the table when father gets home from work
What an optimistic bunch :)
Some things we've learnt in the last six months:
- Four chronic health conditions that are preventable (that's an important point... preventable) leave people more susceptible to hospitilisation & death from a virus (above the health risk of the conditions themselves).
- Supply chains are important. The shorter they are, the more local, the better.
- Everyday workers (retail, storage, transport, drivers, farmers, growers, sanitation workers) historically seen near the bottom of the heap are actually very fucking important.
- A precedent has been set, the world can virtually stop. Changes can be made. The 'go go go', 'me me me', 'profit profit profit' attitude can be near halted.
They're all connected, no man is an island.
Indo raised an important point and it is a contributing factor in white, indigenous, and black communities problems with violence and crime.
It doesn't have to be a version of the 50's stereotype. There are households raising children in same sex families, there are stay at home dads and working mum families (Jacinda Adern's family a well known example).
Both parents working away from home, or both parents unemployed, are factors contributing to health outcomes.
Surely the world is rich enough in resources that both parents don't have to work full time and work to the level that it's detrimental to their health.
100% it doesn't have to be a totally traditional structure, you see it often where the man stays home and women goes to work. (or same sex couples if you like)
But the reality is at the end of the day these changes in structure have caused us issues.
Or yeah it can defiantly work in other ways, myself and my wife both work, but we both only do about 20-25 hrs a week each and juggle things, we both spend a lot of time with our daughter and each other, but we are also lucky we don't have a big mortgage, we have little stress and in a normally year still get to Indo for a min of a month and take off about a month at home..
And i also think some time in child care etc is good for kids for social aspects and independence etc especially if an only child..
I do know of other couples though where in my own opinion they have very bad balances and i feel sorry for kids, i ve known kids that get dropped off at child care as soon as it opens and not picked up until late as parents work up city, both parents are working flat out for a house they cant afford and two new cars etc and they dont even get a holiday.
IMHO that isn't healthy, and cant be good for your kid to spend basically no time with them, not to mention good chance your own relationship will break down if you dont have time for each other and have financial stress.
For most people i dont think it will change as for many people they are never happy with what they have and always look at what others have so its never enough for most people...well thats my view, observation.
No mention of the "Prado Mums" scenario , fuckloads of them here in the south west, Mums who dont work (or work very little) , got some poor bugger on a nightmare FIFO swing life in the golden handcuffs (weeks on / days off), living the dream , all the expendable income you want with no annoying bloke around to cramp their style, drop the kids at school and the world is their oyster for the day, coffees, botox, surfing , fucking the F45 instructor ,etc etc. If thats not an unbalanced reality I dont know what is? kids grow up with a part time Dad / father figure (kids miss out bigtime) Dads miss everything (birthdays, xmas, concerts, footy games, netball games etc etc) and more often than not get the arse before the game is over for all manner of reasons and have to move out of the Mc mansion they still have to pay for (often with a restraining order to help things along) to the caravan park of broken dreams. Seen it happen lots of times.
Not a 50,s stereotype but maybe a 2000,s WA female utopia for sure.
Good link btw Facto re Rolling Stone.
Nothing personal Mike but fuck me......
You win the gold medal for the most negative, 'I hate everyone' poster on these forums.
That's a bit of a blow ringmaster. I'm going to have to lift my game.
You’re still number one to me Vic.
Thanks AndyM, I appreciate that.
Thanks RM ,thats a pretty high (low?) bar on this forum.
Dont shoot the messenger ,not making shit up, I just say what I see
I like the F45 touch, Mike.
Maggot Creek has always been cursed though, hasn't it?
Cursed ever since the Bussells killed those aboriginals at the back of south point, WA,s own Waterloo bay
Dale I read the RS piece. It’s a good article yet it misses perhaps the most fundamental cause of Trump’s rise and the collapse in the integrity of US governance……..the role of the media. All political power in the US in the hands of the wealthy and they keep that power through their ability to control the “narrative”.
The explosion of social media enabled the development of sophisticated new techniques to spread misinformation and fake news. Vested interests in the US and other states have exploited these techniques ruthlessly to influence elections globally. Trump is simply the most disastrous consequence of this. That the article fails to address these issues reduces the value of its analysis.
You're dead right Mike, re the "Prado Mums". I've met many a fella that has done similar. It all starts with good intentions, do a few years FIFO to set them selves up and get ahead. Next thing, it's the golden handcuffs, then the kids have grown up and left home and they go "WTF just happened". They no longer really know the Mrs as she has a different life whilst they are at work. And it all crumbles around them. Everything they worked for and built was for nothing.
Of course it doesn't happen to all of them, some are smart and do quite well and manage it well.
Blowfly, I hear you, brother.
The media's own blindspot regarding its role and culpability in the state of political affairs is a sin.
I'm about to tune into my favourite TV tragicomedy on a Sunday - Insiders - to further bear witness to that very phenomenon.
The more transparent it all is to the wider community, the less damaging.
Spreading this good news on these threads - on a Sunday, no less - is the path to salvation!
Hallejulah!
"The explosion of social media enabled the development of sophisticated new techniques to spread misinformation and fake news. Vested interests in the US and other states have exploited these techniques ruthlessly to influence elections globally. Trump is simply the most disastrous consequence of this. That the article fails to address these issues reduces the value of its analysis."
Wouldn't you agree this is not the sole domain of whichever position you align yourself with? I fail to see how it can be one sided which seems to be what you're alluding to. I'd even go further to say social media (as much I can't stand it) actually is a mechanism to counter 'fake' news, which as we know, is not a recent phenomenon.
zen, there is a clear imbalance in what can be achieved by the various parties involved. National actors, most particularly Russia, have entire organisations (look up "internet research agency") devoted to this. Wealthy individuals and corporations can also afford to employ trolls and create bots to spread whatever toxic bullshit is most advantageous to them at the time. Against that, in what might be called the public interest, you have charities, other organisations funded by donation and government departments doing what they are told by their political masters. At the moment, in the US, UK and Australia, the governments are all right wing and their policies are devoted to increasing the profits of private companies and maintaining the wealth of those segments of the population who vote for them. The result of these imbalances is that issues like climate change are ignored and working conditions slide to such an extent that critical workers in areas like aged care and security are poor and have little to no job security. This last issue has been fundamental to the problems we have had with the pandemic. People who are poorly paid, untrained in any realistic sense and work in difficult jobs with no security are likely to make poor decisions. All this was clearly demonstrated before the pandemic by the Royal Commission into Aged Care.
"I'd even go further to say social media (as much I can't stand it) actually is a mechanism to counter 'fake' news,"
........so do you still believe in Santa Claus and fairies at the bottom of the garden as well?
I acknowledge and thankyou for responding to my questions and for the most part I am in total agreeance. I thought the RS article above, whilst bleak was a good read and not far off the mark.
As much as I wish fairies and Santa were real I know they're not. I do know condescension is alive and well though.
It just comes naturally I’m afraid.
Trumps rise to power is much simpler than that, has little to do with misinformation.
Much more to do with the USA political system can you imagine having a system like theirs where you have dynasties with Clintons and Bush's, people just wanted to shake up the system and the timing for Trump was perfect running against another Clinton..
It's the same deal with Obama people would have just voted for him as he was not the stereotypical USA president.
Personally i can relate, i would have voted for both Obama and Trump no matter what side of politics they were or their polices were, just to go against the grain.
That said id expect Trump to get voted out, the jobs now done and this covid stuff has shown how he is way out of his depth..
That said the serious side of me says he is a complete looney and needs to go and his time is up, but if he gets reelected id kind of be happy to see all the whingers on the left go through it all again and id be pissing myself.
Yeh I'm a cranky old bastard with a low threshold for bullshit and ignorance.....not to mention blatant stupidity, like this.
"That said the serious side of me says he is a complete looney and needs to go and his time is up, but if he gets reelected id kind of be happy to see all the whingers on the left go through it all again and all pissing myself."
This is the opinion of someone with an emotional age of 9......no, too generous, make that 7.
Yup. always signing off with a condescension, insult or jibe.
Ugly, bitter and unbecoming.
...or a completely appropriate response to the various idiocies committed so regularly here.....just a matter of opinion really.
162,000 dead, 5 million infections, a crushed economy, frightening police brutality, massive corruption, a shattered international reputation, a president who has absolute contempt for democratic principles, AND CASPAR DREAMING WOULD LAUGH IF TRUMP GOT BACK IN BECAUSE HE'D BE "PISSING HIMSELF AT THE WHINGERS"
Wow, I mean WOW.
No Vic, it doesn't take much thought for the horrendous idea behind that little bit of self-indulgence to come shining through. Fuck all the death and misery....at least I'll get a laugh out of it. FFS....and they want me to be polite about it. Not in this fucking lifetime!
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia