COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 9:18am

It is so typical of today's mentality of everyone blaming the gov for everything or want the gov to fix everything or the gov to give them everything. No responsibility nor accountability for your own actions.

A mate sent me this last night and it pretty well sums it up.

"Before we get too hung up on blaming the state govt, or the federal govt, or China for our covid situation let’s review some facts :
1. We had to bring in mandatory quarantining in hotels, because we couldn’t trust people to stay home after returning from overseas.
2. We then had to bring in security, because we couldn’t trust people to stay in those hotels.
3. We then had to bring in ADF, because we couldn’t trust the security guards not to have sex with those in quarantine in the hotels.
4. We had to get police to door knock and check up on people, because we couldn't trust those who were meant to be self-isolating to actually stay at home.
5. We also have to have police and ADF reinforce the metropolitan Melbourne zone and state borders, because we can’t trust people to follow the restrictions.
6. We are now being asked to use masks, because we cannot trust people to social distance when they are in public.
7. Through it all, our supermarkets have had to introduce shopping restrictions because we couldn’t trust people to not to take more than what they needed.
So we can get as mad as we want at politicians or health officials for imposing restrictions, or the country where the virus originated, but essentially it’s our own fault that we find ourselves here.
Selfishness and lack of empathy seems to be as much of a disease as covid itself.
The quicker people start following directions, the quicker this situation will improve."

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 9:45am

Spot on Fitzy

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 10:07am

+1000 Fitzoy-21.
That's the exact reason why Australia is a nanny-state with so many "don't do" rules. If Australians had more commonsense and more social responsibility, we'd be able to enjoy a quiet beer at the beach, we wouldn't have ugly fences all over national parks with signs saying "watch out for the cliff", and pubs wouldn't have to close early so people didn't get king hit and killed.
Basically Australia needs rules and the big stick to protect the idiots. This is especially the case with Covid 19 because the idiots aren't just a danger to themselves.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

brutus's picture
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brutus commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 10:11am

Indo,"Quite simply there wouldn't be a second outbreak if it wasn't for Dans incompetence"

actually it's people who are responsible for the new spike....those who don't obey the laws , don't wear masks, don't social distance......having said that what do you when 90% of people who were tested because they had symptons went back to work and waited for their test or the 25% who tested positive that didn't quarantine ?

All this political bullshit Scomo vs Andrews......leads to nothing except more confusion and division.....

Going forward , the biggest problem in the next few mths /years will be the people who refuse to vaccinate......what percentage will be Australia....USA 20% will not vaccinate , 30% still undecided , 50% will......what will be the percentage in Australia?

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 10:19am

@VL, you are up there as one of the top ones for constantly blaming the Gov.............

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 10:35am

Fitz, your post is very good, I like it a lot but can I add its the role of leadership - political, commercial, religious etc to unite people, to bring them together, to inspire under a single banner. Plenty have commented for years on how inspirational leadership is missing in public life, in fact, the opposite exists and is winning - division, blame, scare and fear. As I said I think your post is very good.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 10:39am

Quite a few travellers test Positive under Scomo's "National Quarantine".
Scomo demands only infected patients 'requiring nursing' shall stay secure.
Other super spreaders plague Cities with No supervised Transit, Isolation or Tests
Scomo fills 'em up with covid & orders release of Zombie apocalypse upon Cities.
Oz isolated patients simply follow Scomo's lead...If #1 don't give a fuck...See ya!

Scomo swapped Chinese Offshore Quarantine for Hillsong City super spreaders.
Border Security Quarantine Policy shifted to CBD...bound by Scomo...(Not States)
Scomo also has higher hand on State Quarantine funding arrangements & protocol.
Scomo runs alienating border entry & Quarantine thru the States...(Not Dan's call !)
Scomo bastardised Vic Quarantine, so obviously has overarching Duty of care.
Dan's hand was forced and must live with the consequences & fronts up daily.
Scomo left Kero Baths overflowing, took the money off the fridge, flicks the switch.

Scomo could round up his special brew Covid Zombies & fair dinkum isolate them.
Scomo could save Dan by propping up Vic Zombies Pandemic leave...(Ha Ha Ha!)
But he won't will he...cause Scomo would have to pay to tidy up his own mess.
Only Scomo can part the next Wave by tossing coins into the fountain of Covid.

Libs missed the boat & Scomo's Super Spreader quango should be #1 rort by now!
COVIDSafe app rort was sucking in Aussies until pesky interpol covid scam raids!

Pretty sure if Libs choose to do a days work..said if! Trio could conjure up a rort!
Until Parliament thaws out...our bagmen Stuart / Dutto / Angus are left drooling.

Scomo's Jobseeker Libs have endured Lockdown for 204 of the last 216 days.
Sky News [Yes/No] "Use [ BLM ] protesters as seat warmers for Parliament House"
[AD] Rupert uses {Karen bitter} to fuel Scomo's Skyrocketing pollboosters."

Qldurrz salute Vics!

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 12:09pm

"Going forward , the biggest problem in the next few mths /years will be the people who refuse to vaccinate......what percentage will be Australia....USA 20% will not vaccinate , 30% still undecided , 50% will......what will be the percentage in Australia?"

brutus I think most people will vaccinate when faced with the probable restrictions if they don't. If you want to travel overseas then you will need to be vaccinated. If not to get out then to get back in, either that or several weeks self-funded isolation. Schools and hospitals are also likely to mandate vaccination as will many employers. It could reduce the anti-vaxx movement to a tiny minority of nutters.

GreenJam's picture
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GreenJam commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 1:36pm

well, I'll be one that wont be getting vaccinated. Having an autoimmune condition, I'm very wary of this virus, and there is now news starting to filter out that this virus is actually causing autoimmune conditions. We could well be in for a wave of these type of chronic conditions in the aftermath of covid. So for me, the thought of intentionally exposing myself to the virus through a vaccine is crazy, no chance. And if government/society wants to restrict me from doing certain things because I wont be vaccinated, well fuck it, I've already escaped to the hills with a simple, partly self-sufficient lifestyle that could happily ramp up if needed.

blowfly's picture
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blowfly commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 2:33pm

GreenJam, I am sure they will grant medical exemptions for conditions like yours. Once we have a vaccine then we should reach herd immunity pretty quickly and even those who cannot be vaccinated should be safe.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 2:48pm

Agree and similar situation of condition/precautions here GreenJam. The idea that you can end up going through some of the stuff I've had to - or similar, but avoid it - oh man what a powerful choice to make!

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 3:02pm

Plenty here have said it, about how Morrison is avoiding scrutiny at all costs .......

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-avoids-scrutiny-at-t...

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 4:39pm

Lol and of course there is no bias in that article is there even tho it's written by a former advisor to the Labor government?

Read Fitzy's post earlier - that's who the finger should be pointed at if you must point fingers.

I'm sure Albanese would have done a much better job getting everyone to do the right thing and stay the fuck at home. Insert rolled eyes here.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 4:39pm

Article by:

"Sean Kelly is a columnist for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald and a former adviser to Labor prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard"

Says it all.

Has last nights episode of 60 Minutes been mentioned yet?

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 5:05pm

maddogmorley beat me to it by a second or so :D

Anyway for those that missed it

adam12's picture
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adam12 commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 5:00pm

My 90 year old father says Albanese looks like the cab driver that just dropped off the Labor leader.

mattlock's picture
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mattlock commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 5:44pm

All well and good Adam. But fortunately looks only really count for suckers of the soundbite. Unfortunately there is a lot of them.

mikehunt207's picture
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mikehunt207 commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 8:34pm

Well said Fitz, spot on evaluation ,people are selfish ,fucking idiots more often than not it would seem, sad really.
I would get vaccinated if / when it comes to it -but maybe not in the front of the line (wont be anytime soon anyhow, above predictions are dreaming).

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 9:04pm

We can't all be geniuses, but even idiots can understand that wearing a mask and social distancing is required to get infection numbers down. Useful idiots have a role to play in this battle.
Unfortunately there's been a massive and extended campaign to undermine the very simple social distancing message by scum bags chasing ratings and votes. That's confused the idiots and made them relax. They've become dangerous idiots.
While the dangerous idiots out in the general public annoy me, it's the opportunistic political scumbags like Tim Smith and Craig Kelly who really shit me to tears. These shit cunts, and media enablers like Ben Fordham, are the scum of the earth. Fucking dogs are feathering their own nests while putting people in danger and ensuring the economy gets crushed.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 9:32am

( Covid 19 ~ Booster Vax )...dedicated to Vic!

US pulls out & member states lose majority say in (WHO)
Big Pharm claim & break their New Toy.
This echoes discontent & lack of trust in % shown below.

Covid -19 most at risk :
Age 65 years > (85% deaths)
Blood Type/s A (45x risk)
Extra Male Sex Hormones eg: Balding (40x risk)
Quarantaine > CDC Dizaine > UK Septaine
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8570413/Hopes-quarantine-cut-we...
Recovery : 21 days min for 35% & 20% young adults.
Ventilators kill more than the virus...(Their words exactly)

Immunity > Cruise Ships + City 20% / Youth 40% / Prisons 50% > Elderly 60%
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20...

Vaccine Refusal has risen by 10-30% (Big Corp WHO) has few fans.

Say No > Can 18% / Oz 32% / Fnce 32% / UK 33% / NZ 47% / US 50% / Gmy 50%
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/anti-vaxx-...

Greedy Govt fucking Big Pharm lost all cred...( current rate > 2021 No = 40-60% )

OZ Closet Distancing of [ 1.5m ] is considered unlawful on broader world scale.
Govt app [Out of Order] denies all o/s mobile uptake + (Govt No > Universal app )

Oz arrival is needle free to those entering it's borders for 6 months.
This includes state workplace Flu Shot exemptions (re: NRL / Uni's / Schools)
o/s arrivals 2x swabs $3,000 Quarantine > ( Free test / bunk in Victoria )
International Licenses are interstate passports - 4 million [visa] Border Runners
Pandemic Leave disaster pays out $1500 /14 days for no vax [Positive visas]

No Needles attracts more slaves to Southern Mission increasing Lib backers.
[ visas ] + Chinese arrivals are doubling this month...during pandemic...(Really!)

Victoria "Catch Up" loophole vax Oz born visas > Under 10 - Taboo in other states.
Scomo is furious at Vic inoculating [visas] ( No tracing Lib Donors Tax free slaves )
After 6 months they cue for "Govt quango vax " > $800 [visa booster shot]

PM Policy : No o/s [visas] vax & feeds virus cases into #1 Hotspot Lib kickbacks

Australian Vax-Tests
Only Oz regime deprives anti vax citizens > No (Welfare / School / Childcare)
Repeating (Above) o/s anti vax Kids are exempt & can spread viruses for 6 months!
Scomo's [ No Jab No Pay ] sounds tough but he spits on only vax compliant State.

eg: Asian Students get Shopping Centre Day care rebates (No Vax Policy - Shh!)
Scomo harbours Measles in CBD Shopping centres + Oz Covid in CBD Hotels.
All wished not to put themselves in harms way but Scomo's mates need a buck.

Pathology Pop Ups.
Govt bumped up Pathology from $25 > $50 > $100 (ends 30 September 2020)
Patho' Pop Ups cooking up Hot Spots & reshaping the Pandemic Traffic .
2nd wk Oct cases should drop as old $25 fee Pathologies pack Up & close shop .
Scomo has Dan where he wants him...(1st Oct) Thumbs Up! or Thumbs down!

Workers Test Payments ( Only after Work leave is exhausted)
Victoria $300 for 1-2 Tests ( No Work = up to 10 days / swab ) $300 for 20 days?
$1500 Positive Test -10 days (Test result) +14 days
Pandemic leave Disaster relief $1500 /14 days to those without sick pay...
re: (Above) 21 days min recovery for 35% = (Still down 1 week pay / more if older)
Payments cover 14 day Quarantine not actual recovery of still contagious worker.

Only Victoria offers full range FREE Test / Jabz from day one to all Oz + o/s equally.

Victoria as a ray of Hope! (So True!) vs Anti vaxers point & laugh! (I told ya so!)

Go round in circles, back to the beginning, all agreeing to disagree, as human's do!

views from the cockpit's picture
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views from the ... commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 3:37am

Some good links there TBB.
Oz currently with approx 18,000 confirmed cases and 220 deaths outta 4.5 million tests rates us 12th on global testing regime, yet 55th on global populations.
The more ya test the more youll find but maybe not so.
Fizzle out rather than a vaccination find most likely outcome.
Masks, hand sanitiser in shops, public transport, etc and social distancing the most common sense approach to dealing with Covid.
Stage 4 lockdown = unnecessary.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 6:44am

As I was saying .... this time from one of their own

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/government-chose-futile-burea...

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 7:36am

I think personal responsibility and lack of blaming is a good attitude to have. However, putting untrained security guards in charge of quarantine operations is a monumental government stuff up that is going to cost hundreds of lives, thousands of jobs and billions of dollars not just to Victoria but the whole country.
Anyone that has been on a work site in the last 10 years knows you can’t scratch your butt without having a white card and doing job safety analysis, safe work method statements etc etc etc. Yet somehow a government department has approved a company to provide staff with no PPE, no training and no supervision to be the front line of Australia s bio security.
That is just totally crap and in fact it could end up as a WHS case as the head contractor ie the government, has put workers in an unsafe work environment.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:19am

Distracted, nobody is defending the hotel security shambles. It was a private industry fuckup, with moronic guards, and a severe lack of government oversight.
The other big question is, why did this virus spread so fast? Victoria has been absolutely bombarded with utterly cynical messages, by the state opposition and the conservative media, that undermined the medical advice re social distancing. We were told the virus was a hoax, it's not that bad, it's like a light flu, we need to open up the economy, Dan is a dictator etc etc etc. Enough people listened and got slack.
There were also serious weaknesses in aged care and no protection for casual workers.
Every government has made mistakes. I can forgive errors when people have been forced to make fast decisions for a highly fluid and unusual situation. The bloke who misread the Ruby Princess report mixing up 'flu and covid infections must feel terrible.
What I can't forgive is the extended and highly cynical campaigns by dogs like Tim Smith and Alan Jones, trying to score political points at the expense of public health. I also can't forgive governments who were given months to prepare aged care for the impending disaster. Scumo knew for months casual staff needed wage protection. These are Federal government responsibilities and they sat on their fucking hands for 6 months. Right when the Victorian state government needed every bit of help they could get, Dan Andrews was forced to take over the day-to-day management of private nursing homes where residents were literally dying from neglect. They also had to introduce wage protection for casual workers because the Federal government showed no intention of doing it. Only when things turned to absolute shit, and it became a political problem for Scumo, did that lazy fucker act on aged care and casual worker protection. Six fucking months too late.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 8:38am

A little something extra to throw into the mix for the 'young 'uns'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/survivors-of-covid-19-show...

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dawnperiscope commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 9:11am

They said psychiatric effects could be caused “by the immune response to the virus itself, or by psychological stressors such as social isolation, psychological impact of a novel severe and potentially fatal illness, concerns about infecting others, and stigma.”

All fair observations I'm sure, but how about the meds that got pumped into them in hospital that trashed their gut health?

Ride on

Hiccups's picture
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Hiccups commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 10:52am

...

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 1:17pm

I was listening to a podcast last night, then saw that article this morning!

Check it out. Pro skater Brian Anderson's hallucinating COVID tale.

From the 18:30 mark.

Scary shit for the relatively younger types.

D-Rex's picture
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D-Rex commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 1:38pm

This thread is getting a little tired. To brighten your day I've stumbled across some revealing detail on my old mate ID - he's not only a good bloke but a world renown author!

https://imgur.com/a/nTsyCQm

PS Where's blowin these days?

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 3:47pm

Cloaked under Joh's DLS Curtain...tbb slips Vic [ Top Secret Covid Plans ]

14th July / Qld Health Clinical Excellence Division [ Covid-19 Action Plan ]

https://www.health.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0039/959952/sgmcn-c...
Transmission
Rate : 2m - 3m (vs) [ SD 1.5m?)
Contact : 4 hrs in air or 3 days on Plastic
Pre Symptoms : 24- 48 hrs
Incubation : 5 > (Days 7-10 peak) > 14 days onto 24 days
Viral Shedding : 20-35 days (vs) [ Qld Quarantine 14 days ] re: (More Below)
Case Fatality : 1-4% > Women -1.7 > Men 2.8 > 70's - 8% > 80+ 15%
*Ventilator Fatality : ICU up to 50% (re: tbb's next post)

*Infection Rate : > 60% will become infected over the next 6-9 months
*Vaccine : Unlikely for 1 year
Immunity : No herd Immunity
Treatment : Dexamethasone ( Respiratory) + Remdesivir (WIV covid drug for US)

Recommendations...
Hot Spot > Telehealth / Testing + (re: Woolies & Bunnings insist on Masks)
*o/s arrival : "No mandatory o/s entry swab"... unless symptomatic.
Drugs : Dexamethasone saves 3% Vent/deaths / Remdesivir saves 4 days recovery.
*Trials : 7th April Qld Health banned Hydroxychloroquine / Now running own Trials.
https://www.health.qld.gov.au/system-governance/legislation/cho-public-h...
Hydration : Run patients a little thirsty to save using Ventilators.
Ventilators : Elderly are unlikely to do well on ventilators + keep them out of ICU.
Elective Surgery : Takes a back seat to Covid...restrict numbers all around.
Discharge Criteria : #1 Priority (Free up beds) > [+] will vacate for new Patients.
Post Virals : [+] 14-20 days after symptoms will not be "classed" as infectious.

Nations wind back Quarantine / Tests + speed release without on-care checks.
tbb is not defending his home state as other nations are past caring & reopening!

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 4:54pm

@D-Rex

Ha ha I haven't even read that one.

Yeah Blowin's been gone for a while, need hi back for some forum balance.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 5:42pm

Ventilator Deaths (tbb has raised this a few times!)
After reading of 50% elderly deaths in Qld (above) it warrants further review.

Ribbed plastic tubing can't (flush clean / dry sterilise) so re-ventilates a life of gunk )
City wide Covid +Flu is forced into every nook & cranny it never dreamed of going.
Pollies / A-Listers get top shelf silver lined Tubing...not our shared common muck!
VIP fight their inner demons but we plebs fight off a graveyard of Covid Zombies.

Ventilator pumps air up to avoid regurgitation but read-out is too low for nurses.
At height (above patient) Vent' reads, need Fewer Nurses so Tubes run down! Gag!!
A listers would have private suites/nurses affording low read height > airflow up.

ICU fit carbon filters & rotate exaltation port down...this drowns (stews) the patient.
VIP room affords exalt of the virus with min or no filter to heal healthier & faster.
Basically those old school verandahs are perfect (vs) ICU room is a mortuary.
Line up a row of elderly to vent' spray the virus over the Club's putting green!

Clean Hose > No bacteria / No regurgitation infection / No choking filter (Survive!)
Growing Ventilator cases > More bacterial infection, choking, drowning.(Deaths)

tbb: CPAP tests have seen strong lads screaming & pulling mask off, storming out!
Intubation Ventilators are next level...Salute elderly at 2 days ...2 weeks > Gods!

Ventilator Deaths %
Covid -19 response was to plug all patients onto Ventilators...(Many were Elderly)
World response was to build & supply ventilators...[ Deaths were running at 90% ]
Changes: Avoid deadly Ventilation / Intubation + Pop a few WIV bat Lab drugs.

*Less populated Oz afforded new less shared ICU Tubes + alt' exalt freedoms.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-doctors-and-nurses-australia-leads-...

Ventilator % deaths {RIP}
(Aged) - ARDS- 64% / Covid (Qld) - 50% + ( NYC 1st Wave -97% )
(Adults) 37% in 11 days / ARDS - 50% / Covid -(*Vic)- 22% > World 40%
(Children) 17% in 16 days / ARDS - 34% /

Past ARDS studies show 10-20% patients will likely die within a year!
Few attribute these deaths to virus..piles of studies accuse the ventilator as a killer.
Ventilators force the virus far deeper thru the body. Repercussions are horrendous.

Oz/ World Stats clearly show ventilator deaths easily outnumber the pandemic.
US Coronavirus deaths dropped by 50-60% when ventilators were unplugged!
Again clearly showing that the ventilators kill more than the virus.
Qld death rate dropped from 50% to 4% or 15% max for highest elderly group.
Half the world needn't have died...nothing to do with Covid -19...We know now!

D-Rex's picture
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D-Rex commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 6:48pm

Cheers ID, I mean, Neal.

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D-Rex commented Tuesday, 4 Aug 2020 at 6:49pm

Neil!

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 10:51am

A re-run of the Kneel and Blow show?

Who in their Right mind would want to see that again?

Apart from ol' Trumpasaurus lurking in the bushes.

Ew!

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 9:53am

Comment from the Age this morning saying it .....

“In a couple of days, New Zealand will have passed another milestone: 100 days without community transmission, and they've enjoyed total economic and social freedom within their borders for almost all of that time, allowing their economy to rebound to mid-2019 levels. They achieved this by deciding very early on to eliminate the virus: they would get active cases to zero and then put all of their resources into securing an airtight border and quarantine.

Australia could have done this. Scomo was given the option of elimination but he shied away, not courageous enough to lead a coordinated national elimination response. Instead, he palmed off quarantine responsibilities on to the states, mocked people taking the virus seriously as cowards hiding under their doonas, and bungled the handling of aged care facilities, allowing the virus to spread.

We need to be honest and realistic. We do not have leadership at the national level in the way New Zealand does. Every state is on their own, and that has become painfully clear in the sniping and antagonism. It's all in keeping with conservative governing philosophy, too: why take responsibility for things when they could fail?

With that in mind, Victoria should press forward with their aggressive strategy and try to eliminate the virus within the state”.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 11:08am

Got to agree there GS. IMHO, the closest we have come to any real leader in my lifetime was Bob Hawke, in terms of uniting the country and leading. All the rest have been a mixture of career politicians and egomaniacs.
The fact we have no sign of a vaccine in sight, I believe it is not too late to eliminate in Aust due to the relatively low numbers of active cases existing. It is a matter of containment first and foremost. Unfortunately, we have morons more interested in the present economy rather than the future well being of a nation.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 3:57pm

Maybe if Victoria hadn't totally dropped the ball Australia could be aiming for total elimination, most states are pretty close as it is.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 4:04pm

Oh Fuck off Indo Dreaming, it was your hero Scumo who told everyone we had to live with Covid 19. Him and Gladys made the "suppression" call for the entire country. Don't go blaming Victoria for Scumo's policies.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 4:20pm

Ive heard the discussion from experts on ABC radio on the topic, they all seem to have differing opinions on what is possible or don't want to commit to a clear answer.

Scomo and others are just taking advise from experts in their fields, if it was possible for Australia im sure they would look into it, but its kind of a pointless discussion at the moment with the outbreak in Victoria.

But you people always think you know better than the experts and always looking for a reason to put hate on Scomo, while totally ignoring complete FK ups by other leaders like Dan in Victoria.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 4:43pm

There's a shit load of experts saying elimination was possible, and NZ proved that they were right. But did scumo listen to them? nooooooooooo, Scumo chose the experts he wanted to hear from. He wanted to be the hero and open up the economy. He said the Covid Safe App could track and trace so we could live with the virus.
Two gigantic fuckups right there Indo, but for people like you, it's easier to point the finger at Andrews rather than admit your own side fucked up and fix the problem.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 5:09pm

Early on, before our borders were closed and people freely strolled off planes and into city streets do we all remember the federal government not wanting to upset the Chinese government or their students or the university sector but as an attempt to get the foreign student cash cow moving Morrison arranged remote quarantining on Christmas Island and a couple of disused mining towns.

What happened to stop that early good move of remote quarantining by Scotty?

Who would know but probably he was found wanting with no Covid19 pre-planning and quickly cobbled together state based quarantine ..... and the rest is history.

D-Rex's picture
D-Rex's picture
D-Rex commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 7:18pm

ID, I've warned you before you can't reason with these radical lefties - stop stressing buddy! You could walk outside at midnight and say 'what a dark night' and they'd say (any or all of the following):
- it's due to climate change
- it's Scomo's fault
- it's Murdoch's fault
- it's like daylight
- I wipe my brother's arse with The Age
- (most likely) you're a conservative f...wit

They will continue to come up with the most absurd, illogical, irrational, biased and bizarre excuses for their heroes (Dan, Gough, Julia, Kevin, Kim Jong, Xi, Fidel, Che, etc), no matter what the facts present.

BTW I'm really enjoying your book.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 7:53pm

As i keep pointing out time after time, every state of Australia bar Victoria has very low cases of Covid-19.

All the crap you people keep banging on about is pretty much irrelevant it is been and gone and is not an issue, the only thing relevant is the situation in Victoria which is a complete mess.

I will put it in surfing terms, other states of Australia took off free fell, bottom turned, dug the nose, nearly lost it, but then the nose popped out got totally barrelled spat out and pulled off.

The fact they dug a nose is irrelevant because they still got barrelled still came out and completed the ride.

But Victoria took off free fell, bottom turned, dug the nose, nearly lost it, but then the nose popped out and got completely barrelled came out, then went for the greedy inside section which sucked completely dry and now were are being rag dolled across dry reef.

100% D-rex im not stressing over it though, im just calling out their BS.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 8:46pm

"As i keep pointing out time after time, every state of Australia bar Victoria has very low cases of Covid-19."
And you keep putting up that same graph as some form of proof it's all Dan's fault. Look at it, you muppet. It shows NSW never got rid of the virus. What do you expect was going to happen when they loosened social distancing rules? Except for NZ, there isn't a country on the planet that hasn't experienced a spike in cases after relaxing their laws. You're just blaming Andrews because 1. the second wave happened in Victoria first. 2. It gives you some lame excuse when cases inevitably rise in NSW, and 3. You're a right wing idiot.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 9:07pm

Some interesting evidence here about the variability of the impacts of the virus and just who is most vulnerable.

https://www.cuimc.columbia.edu/news/ancient-part-immune-system-may-under...

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 12:52am

Tourism is New Zealand's biggest export industry, contributing 20.4% of total exports. Tourism generates a direct annual contribution to GDP of $16.2 billion, or 5.8%, and a further indirect contribution of $11.2 billion, another 4% of New Zealand's total GDP.

Sorry but I just cant believe that "The Age" article.

factotum's picture
factotum's picture
factotum commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 1:22am

3rd times a charm, hey?

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 5:21am

I think you need to consider the amount of cash that New Zealanders usually spend on overseas holidays each year. It’s less than what overseas tourists spend in NZ, but not actually by all that much. So basically Kiwis are taking their holidays in NZ at the moment which has gone a long way in helping the tourism industry. I was down in Queenstown a couple of weeks ago and the place was pumping.
The other thing is that by far the main earner of foreign exchange in NZ is agriculture. Tourism may be bigger than forestry, sheep and beef, or horticulture, but if you add all the seperate agricultural industries together they are overwhelmingly bigger than tourism. At the moment commodity prices are strong and agriculture is almost entirely unaffected by the pandemic.
We also have a growing tech industry here which is doing well. Weta digital for example.
Finally the hospitality industry is free of restrictions and is doing relatively well.

The government’s books were in good order before the pandemic, and with the relatively low cost of government borrowing at the moment they have been able to help things along.

I fully expect that we’re in for some tough times here like most countries, but at the moment things are not as bad as they could have been.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:06am

Vic, you've got your reasons mixed up as to why Indo's so deadset on it all being Dan's fault - all you've gotta do is look at a few of the headlines by Sky News.