COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 11:26am

Typical idiocy from you Zenagain.
Morriscum has canceled parliament due to Covid 19, but he still has time to zoom all over the country to campaign and fundraise. Just like the bushfires, this idiot has basically given up governing and is now shifting as much blame as possible onto others.
Also his hand picked, unelected, unaccountable, fossil fuel mates are also free to fly all over the country where they make huge decisions for the country in private and without scrutiny.
Oh, and NSW police get to determine which demonstrations are not allowed (BLM) and which ones are fine (anti Chinese).
But hey, don't worry about this thoroughly undemocratic situation Zen. It will all be OK and we have nothing to be worried about.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 11:31am

It’s such a catch 22 moving forward with Covid19. Here in the West things are seemingly getting back to pretty near normal & with that comes complacency. Given it’s probably a matter of when, not if, we get community transmission here, it will potentially be compounded by being in a relatively normal state of affairs. Things like 30 thousand people attending a game of footy still seems reckless to me at this stage of the Covid issue. Whilst this type of activity employs quite a lot of people broadly, it’s these type of events that could turn the tide here quickly & drastically. Let alone a lack of social distancing in supermarkets/shops/pubs etc. Tricky business....

Pristine

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 11:50am

“I want both left and right just to return to the historical centre and also readopt the currently novel idea of working together for the good of all ...”

Would be nice wouldn’t it Guy, but even the well-meaning but shrill commentators further polarise the conversation.

Black or white, right or wrong and whose side are you on (as if there’s only two sides).

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 12:09pm

Covid

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 12:16pm

"In the back half of 2020 I'm hoping we see the start of pre-fascist / strong man governments falling around the world. They've completely failed to protect their citizens from Covid 19 and voters have had a gutful of their corruption and lawlessness."

Why is it idiocy Vic? You think that Chinas rapid march towards fascism which as you know is just a cosy marriage between authoritarianism and totalitarianism, suits your desire for a rosy new world order?

Xi gets a free kick does he?

You baffle me mate.

1173

AndyM's picture
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AndyM commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 12:27pm

It’s the regressive left’s biggest fear - being thought of as racist.

blowfly's picture
blowfly's picture
blowfly commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 12:40pm

"Black or white, right or wrong and whose side are you on (as if there’s only two sides)."

Out of 151 seats in the Australian Parliament only 3 are held by independents while 3 others are held by the sole represerntatives of their parties, all of whom are strongly aligned with the major parties.. So there is a clear divide. You can quibble about policies and argue for middle ground but in the overwhelming majority of cases your vote ends up to the right of the traditional centre with Labor or with the RWNJs of the Coalition. To pretend that there are other choices is delusional. The question "Which side are you on?" therefore is fundamental. Either you support a government that has done nothing on climate change, has repeatedly breached all standards of decent governance and has undermined working conditions so thoroughly that they have been unable to prevent the uncontrolled spread of the virus in aged care facilities or you support the only available alternative. Future government plans include tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy, massive spending on fossil fuel projects, nothing beyond lip service on reconciliation, and the introduction of more trickle down economic policies designed to keep the money flowing in the desired direction........into their mates' pockets ....and their own the minute they leave parliament. Which side are you on? Right or extreme right? It really is the only question worth asking.

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 12:38pm

723 cases in Victoria today, wtf is going on? That’s higher than daily rates for whole counties such as Germany where there is a larger population and virus has been present for months.
Worrying that the positive result rate has jumped to 3.5% despite number of tests staying about same. Suggests that there is increasing community spread? No way it can be suppressed now without extended full lockdown which is going to devastate jobs.
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-positive-test-rate/vic

soggydog's picture
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soggydog commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 1:18pm

Hooray for WA is all I can say. Labour government too for you politically focused.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 1:40pm

You’re knocking it out of the park today blowfly. I doff me lid at ya.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 1:47pm

It's a really sad number being so big in Vic today. Perhaps they are trying to keep it open somewhat to keep an economy going, and try to adjust by looking at numbers and where they are noticing infections. Whether that works with this virus is looking a bit debatable, frontrunning it hard has lessened infections (eg China, NZ, South Korea, Taiwan). Apart from today, there was some hope yesterday as physical numbers in Vic declined and comparing trailing infections to 5 days ago as a chart seemed to be a downward slope.

I don't really see a political slant on this myself, it's more about getting on top of a contagion (I'm assuming it is real, or there is some substance to the pandemic). The mixed messages are a bit of a concern, such as you can't have friends over, but you can play contact sport without mask; such as the Vic CHO saying you can go out exercise when test result positive rather than isolate, which Rebecca Judd had a pretty strong response to. Stories of idiocy have been entertaining, though concerning. Hearing of staff shifts in rosters, with an attempt to isolate working groups and prevent widespread workplace infections within essential workplaces, which seems smart.

Regional Vic shires around Geelong now subject to some restrictions (just no friends over? Will have to check later), masks outside (not for exercise) now state wide.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 2:42pm

edit: trying to work out new dining arrangements in regions, think I've got it

.https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-records-723-new-cor...

Standing in restaurant - mask
Sitting to eat - no mask

Weird

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 2:50pm

Again! Qldurrz offer apologies for our Pentecostal Parasites.

Vic Premier faced his worst nightmare the other night...but stood a mile high!
Qld will support him again now! All leaders will be watching & learning.

tbb will be wearing his mask & tubes each night in support of Vic Comrades.
https://www.araratadvertiser.com.au/story/6844012/qld-should-consider-co...

Qld Salute Vic...anything you need ..say the word!
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSBrisbane/videos/extended-interview-queensl...

All Oz (Qld) Quarantine border/s pushed one way into Vic to trap the virus.
All Aussies can clearly see that...others are plain ignorant & just wanna pick a fight.
We Qldurrz are pretty thick but even we can see Vic never had a fair chance!

Brave Vic also nursed & accommodated ALL cases 'freely' without fear. Salute!
tbb thinks Oz should respect that for what it is! ( Others discriminated & charged! )

Best wishes Vic ... You got This!

soggydog's picture
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soggydog commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 3:03pm

Clive Palmer the quintessential FRC seems to be trying to ruin it for WA.
Problem is he gets a bit more clout than his less well financed dolts that we’ve seen flout restrictions and the ramifications of a win in the High Court could mean........he’s going to fuck it for WA.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 3:11pm

The outlaws live in Cairns and were up in Port Douglas on a day trip last weekend. Entered a shop where they overheard a woman bragging to the shop keeper how she had flown from Melbourne to Sydney, stayed in Sydney for a couple of days and then flew to Cairns,

When questioned by authorities in Cairns, at the airport, where she had been for the past few weeks, she said "Western country NSW" and they let her go.

The outlaws upped this woman telling her what a selfish self-entitled prat she was thinking it was OK to put the FNQ community at risk like that. Apparently she bolted out of the shop never to be seen again.

And that is the whole point of this, lock downs and boarder closures only work so far. It is up to the people to be responsible. The virus doesn't move, people move the virus. A lot of communities outside of capital cities have returned to a sort "normal". It is the actions of these self-centred, self-entitled fucks that are going to bring everything undone throughout the country.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 3:32pm

Well said Fitzroy-21. And just a little heads up for anyone thinking of driving down the coast for a surf out of Melbourne. The coppers are out in force in the carparks. Bring your wallets folks.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 3:37pm

soggydog, help WA tell Clive to go get nicked. WA ALP Premier McGowan has done really, really well in this. Don't be lowering that border any time soon or you'll end up in a Vic situation. Make sure your returning airport travelers are quarantined properly too!
And Vics in Cairns at present?! Psychopaths.

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 4:02pm

Fitzroy-21 & VL - whilst I agree with you, where does this blame game/witch hunt end? It's a dangerous game - the blame game with pandemics. Pinning the blame on individuals well after the initial spread is somewhat tricky. Who gets to call the shots about what's really important and who's to blame?

Obviously - stupidity is just that - stupidity. Lying to authorities and breaking the law is one thing, however from a national psychology perspective - let's see how long it takes for Victoria to recover from the image as being the 'hotspot' or the 'dangerzone'.

Supposedly, this whole shebang started in Wuhan - so global cost should rest with China right? Anyone who spreads the virus from Wuhan to their country should then take full responsibility post this.

Should the cost to Australia then rest with the border force? Or Scott Morrison? Why were we taking this national risk by allowing citizens from overseas to return?

Or should it fall with Dan Andrews, or the security guard and the quarantined lass who just couldn't resist a root?

Or will it then fall to these idiots blatantly flouting the rules for their own personal gain?

Or is it now on the state border police for not standing strong and keeping it separate.

I fear that people will be scapegoated well after the horse has bolted - which I feel it has. Covid is in Aus - and unless we become a nation of pure, hard, lockdowns - i feel it's going to spread. Regardless of these individuals you see on the news, or hear stories of, breaking the laws.

It'll spread through freight, essential travel, or compassionate travel. It'll spread once restrictions ease.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 4:06pm

Blowfly

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 4:13pm

@Stok. Think globally, act locally. It worked for NZ.........so far.

I just returned from Arnhem Land and the communities there are rightfully shit scared. Gunner Govt have done a great job to now, but for how long? The moment the borders opened, people were caught sneaking in.

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 4:22pm

Yep Fitzroy - worked for Taiwan too.

''So far' is key. People were saying how well Singapore handled things up until their outbreak late April/May. Singapore were well experienced, and were a shining example. Now have nearly 50K cases in a city with the population of Melb (give Melb time, we might end up there).

A classic local example of my point was the aspen crowd from Melbourne who were holidaying in Sorrento. Whilst what they did was stupid, in the scheme of things it's made fuck all difference. Key is we don't know what's around the corner, and pinning blame on individuals is fraught with ethical issues.

At the same time though - perhaps some individuals need to literally be scapegoated. Make an example out of who you can, and the rest will fall in line. Unethical in some ways, but for the greater good?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 4:24pm

The question is individual, it's "with the knowledge I had at hand, how did I act? Were my actions beneficial to my community in a pandemic?" If you think the community bit is overrated, it will be your community targeting the blame.

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 4:56pm
adam12's picture
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adam12 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 5:14pm

.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 5:45pm

Good to hear from soggy dog in WA.
Here's a thought. Clive wins his court case and forces the WA border open. The inevitable happens and WA gets a second wave. That fat bastard would need better security than the muppets at the quarantine hotels. He could quite easily become Australia's most hated man.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

mikehunt207's picture
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mikehunt207 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 7:20pm

Clive is proving to be more of a utter selfish wanker than previously thought (if thats even possible), he,s not even a West Aussie, just a rich cunt that doesnt think the rules should apply to him regarding quarantine so throwing money around to try and get his way ,meanwhile the taxpayers are paying lawyers to fight him ,cant believe Slow Mo is backing him in this either,weak cunt, its going to be a shit show for both of them if they open borders and the virus comes in with it.

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 7:33pm

Oh the irony if Jabba The Hutt actually contracts it.......

Pristine

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 7:36pm

Im not a huge Clive fan, but let's not forget he did play a part in saving us from Shorten.

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 7:46pm

IndoD -“Im not a huge Clive fan, but let's not forget he did play a part in saving us from Shorten.”

Translated.....

“Im not a huge Clive fan, but let's not forget I’m actually a huge Clive Palmer fan” .

Some A grade trolling there Indo. Polite as usual......

Pristine

D-Rex's picture
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D-Rex commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 7:56pm

Says blowfly (the type of fly attracted to shit and with a great propensity to spread disease and misery - how appropriately monikered) - 'As for D Rex, he's just another loud mouth insult monger who would probably go into shock for a month if he ever had an original thought. Fuck 'em, and those like 'em. Only one question now. Which side are you on? And they chose wrong.'
Sad to see how radical lefties like this miserable insect always want to hate those who disagree with them. Sums up blowfly and his ilk perfectly.
He adds 'For the rest, my views are based on wide reading on current affairs from a variety of sources as well as years of reading standard works on 20th Century history including biographies of LBJ (3 vols), Theodore Roosevelt (3 vols), Richard Nixon, Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, J. Edgar Hoover as well as Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, Khruschev and Gorbachev'.
Well, for the record I've read Tracks, Surfing World, Australia's Surfing Life and the Herald-Sun so stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
PS What a fucking wanker you are blowfly, especially given you are only new to these forums.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 8:31pm

Mike, Clive doesn't think the rules don't apply to him. He knows full well they largely don't. The man essentially bought an election and it sounds like he'd like to buy another too.

Indo, Clive didn't 'save' us from anything - he has subjected us to Morrison. A government that will continue their ultimate, over-arching aim - shift wealth from the poor to the rich. But as you've said before, that suits you just fine.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 8:55pm

.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 9:09pm

A Dogs Life.
Security Sniffer Dogs will be the new Judge, Jury & Executioner.
Handlers can set the leash length to corresponding SD requirements.

Dogs can be deployed at Airports / Transit / Mail / Malls / Arenas / Concerts.
Nations are fast tracking sniffer Dogs to reopen International Airports

Labradors pass all tests including non threatening adaptive nature.
Dogs can detect non symptomatic Corona cases without making contact.
Accuracy is between 83%-94% rising to 100% Fully Trained with no distraction.

Since 1993 Melbourne is Home to Oz detector Dogs Training.
https://www.abf.gov.au/about-us/what-we-do/border-protection/detector-do...

Extensive breeding program evaluates dogs each 2 months.
60-70% will work front line Seeing eye / AFP / ADF / Corrections / Bio / (Security)

Corona Dogs would require several community's of 24/7 Family Dog Care.
Needing 18 months of Community Foster Care (7 months Training)
Stage 1 - Basic Training -11 weeks
Stage 2 - On the Job Training in Handlers own (Airport) 3 months
(Govts & Airports wish to retrain Bomb Dogs at this point > Corona)
Drug Dogs will continue as is...
Stage 3 - Evaluation - 3 weeks

Brisbane Airport gives a good example of Corona Cases...
Given that a similar percentage are likely to hide or bypass Authority...
Each dog is good for 9,000 detections in their working life.

Brisbane Airport locates 33,000 breaches/Year
https://www.bne.com.au/blog/behind-scenes/day-in-life-airport-detector-dogs
https://www.agriculture.gov.au/biosecurity/australia/detector-dogs

Assume a higher % when adding innocent Non Symptomatic transgression.
100,000 detections at Brisbane / year would be on the radar...hence the rush!
Now that entails 3x the policing measures of standard Airports security.
This 3x security ratio would equally ramp at Footy / Concerts / Rallies .
This plays out in inquiries with recent ramping...Oz is not ready for private Armies!
Also 3x 'Accom Holding Areas' / Posh CBD Quarantine nodes & Posh Porta-loos .
Govts will need to cut Quarantine cost & time by half to compete for visitors.

Expect Age requirements to blur (12-15 y/olds) are being probed & arrested.

2018 The Greens state Drug Sniffer Dogs are inaccurate most of the time.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-03/fact-check-are-drug-dogs-incorrec...

One can see we're headed for 10 fold court cases...gonna need a Robo Judge?

Note Dogs Kill 60,000 humans a year...there's a nice corona doggy! Good boy!

Here's a list of Nations reopening to the world...sooner than you think!
https://www.traveloffpath.com/countries-reopening-their-borders-for-tour...

These Surf nations are waiting for Aussies...
15th July - Maldives
1st Aug - Costa Rica
11th Sept - Bali
USA

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Thursday, 30 Jul 2020 at 9:14pm

TBB, what about the felines?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/27/uk-sees-first-coronavirus-ca...

And re: OS travel, ya reckon any kind of travel insurance will be available?

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 6:59am

@ D-Rex Blowfly is Blind boy aka Laurie.

@Rabbits68 Im honestly not a fan, i feel the same about Clive as i do Trump i really don't like either, but i like it how they get under others skins.

@JQ Sorry I've never said that, i just dont agree that is reality, anyway Scomo's recent approval rating is the highest for any Aussie PM in the last ten years, so im not alone.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
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DudeSweetDudeSweet commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 7:55am

Fat boy Clive is a stalking horse for Morrison and his need to reopen international borders . Covid restrictions state that states must be open before international travel can resume. Unlike Victoria , Western Australia has a somewhat stable economy with closed borders due to Federal money + mining exports + large FIFO incomes now remaining within state borders due to inability of workers to bolt overseas. Western Australia can therefore prioritise lives over their economy much to Morrison’s chagrin.

Morrison is furious that his immigration based , one trick pony of an economy is hobbled. He gets fat boy Clive to do his dirty work because it’s politically suicidal to voice his belief that Australians should be willing to sacrifice their lives so that house prices remain overinflated.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 10:40am

Interesting comments re WA economy DudeSweetDudeSweet.
I'd even suggest WA, with their massive iron oar deposits are in relatively good shape, especially considering the only other major international exporter (Brazil) is a fucking mess.
China is building their way out of their economic slump so demand for iron oar is strong, prices are high, and WA has a reliable supply. If that combination of factors doesn't scream, "PUT AN EXPORT TAX ON IRON ORE", nothing does. That would provide a very large sum of money for treasury to massively benefit the average Aussie. Will Scotty from marketing do it? Fuck no, because we know who he works for. Fat miners.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 8:34am

Something needs to power those Chinese row-boats.

May as well come from Australia.

Stroke... stroke...

1173

soggydog's picture
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soggydog commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 9:06am

Hey ID, just remember your number one leader is currently choosing not to lead mate. Suspended parliament and handed the decision making over to executives from the mining industry, mainly fossil fuels.
Real leadership material ya squat little bible basher has, except when he’s doing exactly as he’s told by the fossil fuel industry.
Christian Porter and Scotty from marketing are stepping aside and as dude sweet said letting it happen. Top blokes.

carpetman's picture
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carpetman commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 9:21am

Yeah, I mean, if you just look at the work ethic of the Vic Premier and the PM.

One hasn't had a day off for 4 months. The other has shut parliament and went on a holiday in the middle of a national disaster.

Who's the lazy bastard living off tax payer money?

factotum's picture
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factotum commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 10:01am
adam12's picture
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adam12 commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 10:18am

VL, don't want to do this but mate it's "ore" not "oar". Keep up the good work.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 10:41am

Cheers bro, fixed. Must be my rowing background!!!

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 10:46am

Or not paying attention in class...

1173

mikehunt207's picture
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mikehunt207 commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 10:54am

Reality being we should cut them off from iron ore altogether , lessons not learnt from "Pig Iron" Bob in the late 30,s selling Japan all the raw materials they needed to build planes, tanks and bombs to send back to us a few years later, meanwhile China keeps building warships and weapons with Australian minerals.

Westofthelake's picture
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Westofthelake commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 3:56pm

Covid problem solving
wilcox310720

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 4:17pm

@Soggydog

Yeah okay this is one of the biggest events in Australias history and you think he is not working or leading???

As we all know the most important thing in the world right now is this Covid-19 thing and dealing with all the complexities around that issue be it economical or social etc and working constantly with all state leaders and all kinds of departments police, army, health department etc, I'm happy that he is focussed 100% on this issue and doesn't have other distractions and even more views muddying the mix.

Maybe if Daniel Andrews hadn't made a mess of things in Victoria parliament could reopen, but yesterday we had over 723 new cases (today over 600) basically other shit can wait.

BTW. for some perspective in March the whole of Australia peaked at 458 cases one day

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 4:32pm

Scumo is working hard, but in a very different way than Andrews.
Andrews is busting his backside trying to fix the medical problem, and he's not being helped by fuckwits who can't follow basic instructions like STAY THE FUCK AT HOME.
Scumo, on the other hand is very busy: shifting blame, covering up his government's fuckups in aged care and border control, cancelling parliament, campaigning in Queensland, going to the footy, setting up an unelected and unaccountable Covid Commission, handing over $10mil to Murdoch to help with the PR campaign, backing a lawsuit with the fat-arsed miner to open up state borders against medical advice, planning his trip to the USA so he can kiss the orange one's fat arse, and basically treating the whole covid situation as a political opportunity. Scumo's actually very busy.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

soggydog's picture
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soggydog commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 7:02pm

Well I think VL has it well and truly covered it. I’ll give the obligatory “What he said”.
Now for your retort. Oh VL did leave out the Hillsong convention early in the piece but aaah! Praise Jeebus!

soggydog's picture
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soggydog commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 7:09pm

Look mate, Mark McGowan has done a great job. We’ve got a hard border with no community transmission at the moment. Clive wants to breach that border with the flimsiest of business reasons, every one else seems to be able to operate fine, by putting forward an interpretation of the constitution. Given that he’s gone to the constitution porter and Scummo seem to be backing him which leaves us open to what you in Victoria have.
Please explain which part of fucking It for WA by supporting that FRC is good. Please explain which part of Clive having it over our elected PM for election favours is good ID.