Upgrade to next week's incoming swells
Western Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday December 27th)
Best Days: Sunday morning in the South West and Mandurah, Tuesday morning all locations, Wednesday morning all locations, Thursday morning all locations
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Temp drop in swell tomorrow AM ahead of a new SW groundswell into the PM, with a reinforcing pulse for Sun
- Light S/SE-SE tending strong S/SW winds Sat, moderate S/SE-SE tending strong S/SW Sun
- Smaller Mon with fresh S/SE tending strong S/SW winds
- Moderate + sized mid-period SW swell building later Mon, peaking overnight and easing slowly Tue
- Gusty E/SE-SE winds Tue AM ahead of sea breezes
- Larger SW groundswell building Wed, peaking into the PM, easing Thu
- Gusty E/SE-SE winds Wed AM ahead of sea breezes, E/SE-E Thu AM
Recap
Our reinforcing mid-period swell came in on forecast yesterday with bumpy though workable waves in protected sports across the South West with 6ft+ of swell on the more exposed breaks. Mandurah faired best with 2-3ft sets while Perth was generally in the 2ft range before a localised windswell whipped up into the afternoon.
This morning the swell is smaller and weaker with fairly average conditions across the South West, cleaner to the north.
This weekend and next week (Dec 28 - Jan 2)
The current swell will continue to drop in size into tomorrow morning, but a new pulse of SW swell is due to arrive before lunch, building to a peak through the late afternoon.
This was generated by pre-frontal NW gales at the head of a polar low forming around the Heard Island region, while trailing fetches of weaker W’ly winds should maintain the size Sunday, producing some reinforcing energy.
The South West looks to come in at 4-5ft+ later Saturday and Sunday with tiny waves to the north, possibly coming in at 1-2ft on Sunday across Mandurah.
Local winds look light and S/SE-SE tomorrow morning creating OK but not great conditions with Sunday seeing similar, moderate S/SE-SE tending stronger S-S/SW winds.
Monday will be a touch smaller in the morning under fresh S/SE winds, while into the afternoon some new moderate + sized mid-period SW swell should start to build but with strong sea breezes.
This swell and a larger increase for Wednesday have been upgraded with the dual lows moving in from the west due to now be stronger.
The first system looks to mostly fall below gale-force in respect to fetch strength while the second should now generate core winds in the gale to severe-gale range.
The first swell is due to build later Monday afternoon and peak overnight with Tuesday coming in around 6ft to possibly 8ft (easing through the day), 2ft+ Mandurah and 2ft Perth. The secondary swell for Wednesday is due to also build during the day, with a peak expected through the afternoon to 8-10ft in the South West, 2-3ft Mandurah and 2ft+ Perth.
Looking at the local winds and Tuesday morning should offer gusty E/SE-SE winds ahead of strong sea breezes, with Wednesday performing similarly. Thursday as the swell starts easing will hopefully see more favourable E-E/SE winds but we’ll confirm this on Monday.
Longer term the outlook is slower so make the most of the coming swells. Have a great weekend!