Forget this week, the weekend's gonna pump
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th January)
Best Days: Saturday on the Surf Coast, Sunday morning on the Surf Coast, Monday morning east of Melbourne, Tuesday morning east of Melbourne
A small but fun and building SW groundswell under offshore NE winds provided good waves east of Melbourne most of yesterday with peaky beachy waves across the Surf Coast.
Today an early onshore change was ruined any chance for a surf and a weak windswell is expected to build through the day.
This week (Jan 15 - 16)
Today's change will whip up a junky and weak SW windswell this afternoon that is expected to peak overnight and start easing tomorrow as the system pushes off to the east.
Winds will be generally poor and fresh from the W/SW but Torquay should see an early W'ly with an easing and weak 2ft+ wave. It won't be worth the drive from Melbourne though with the low quality swell and onshore winds developing mid-morning.
Friday will be much cleaner but tiny with a strengthening NW'ly ahead of a W'y change towards the afternoon/evening.
This weekend onwards (Jan 17 onwards)
The weekend's swell has been upgraded, with a vigorous and strengthening polar frontal progression, now forecast to come in a lot stronger than predicted on Monday. The evolution of this system will be related to a strengthening node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough across the state, with a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds being projected perfectly towards us through our western swell window.
This front will push across us Friday evening, with a moderate to large sized W/SW groundswell peaking in its wake on Saturday.
The Surf Coast should offer 4-5ft waves with the odd bigger set at its peak during the middle of the day/afternoon at swell magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula looks to come in at 8ft+.
Winds will be best for the Surf Coast and fresh and gusty from the W/NW through the morning ahead of a shift to the W/SW.
The backside of the swell event into Sunday and Monday will be drawn out due to a secondary weaker and slower moving frontal system on the tail of the initial storm, continuing to aim a fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds through our swell window Saturday before sliding east through Sunday.
This should see the swell swinging more SW through Sunday, easing from 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds look good for the Surf Coast again with a morning W/NW breeze Sunday, swinging SW during the late morning and more S'ly into the evening.
Monday will be improving east of Melbourne but far from perfect as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west, swinging winds back around to the E/NE as the swell continues to ease from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft across the Mornington Peninsula beaches.
Tuesday will be the day to hit up the beaches east of Melbourne with a smaller easing swell from 3-4ft under fresh to strong offshore N'ly winds.
Longer term we may see some renewed W/SW swell energy from Thursday next week, but we'll look at this again on Friday.