A return to spring
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 8th March)
Best Days: Today and tomorrow but it’s a pretty bleak forecast. Let’s hope for next week.
- Tuesday last of fading S Swell
- Quiet period of waves with mostly local swells
- S wind swell Wednesday
- Weak E trade swell Thursday into weekend
- NE swell begins to build for Mid N Coast into the weekend
- Larger S pulse for next week
The swell didn’t really fill in until Saturday late for the Mid N Coast, Sunday for N NSW. Size wise the Mid N Coast saw waves around 6ft with magnets picking up 8-10ft, N NSW 4-6ft with the points 3-4ft but inconsistent.
SE QLD saw the peak late yesterday for the Gold Coast and into this morning for the Sunshine Coast. Waves around the 3ft mark for the Sunshine Coast, magnets even up to 4ft, and 3-4ft for the Gold Coast.
All in all the S swell probably underperformed a little, especially for SE QLD. It’s not overly surprising though, with a S swell and a large forecast region it needs to mentioned. While the Mid N Coast was solid and N NSW not far behind, the largest of the S swell seemed to go straight past SE QLD with only the odd S swell magnet picking up a fraction of the size seen further S.
With the peak of the S swell now behind us we will see it slowly ease throughout the day today and into tomorrow.
By this afternoon the Mid N Coast will see waves ease to 3-4ft, N NSW will be 3-5ft and SE QLD 2-3ft.
Synoptically we are heading into a quieter period with a weak trough moving up the coast on Wednesday followed by a broad high moving over the southeast of the nation. A trough over land will keep winds light enough while a high moves out over the Southern Tasman preventing any decent swells for most of the week.
Back to the local conditions.
Tomorrow it’ll be 2ft for the Mid N Coast 2-3ft for N NSW and around that 2ft mark for S facing beaches of SE QLD, more like 1-2ft elsewhere.
With N winds for all locations northern ends of beaches will be your best bet. The Mid N Coast will see more NE in the wind so you’ll have to fins more protected northern corners.
By Wednesday there will only be short period swells in the water around the 1-2ft mark for all locations. As a change approaches from the S.
Winds will be light enough early for the Mid N Coast but it’ll be a slim window as the S change moves through just after dawn. For N NSW winds will be SW early before the change moves through around mid morning. SE QLD will have NW winds early before winds turn SW late morning with the change. In the afternoon winds will go SE for all locations.
Thursday will have lighter more variable winds although with an E flow, more SE for SE QLD and more NE for the Mid N Coast. Again nothing special with only small, weak waves on offer.
The End of the Week
A stronger front will sweep across the bottom of the nation drawing in N winds ahead of it creating some localised swell before a change late on Sunday.
These winds ahead of a stronger front will strengthen out of the NE on Friday. While S NSW get’s 2-3ft of NE swell the Mid N Coast will see 2ft waves with less fetch.
Meanwhile, N NSW and SE QLD see a weak E trade swell around that 1-2ft mark.
Both Friday and Saturday will see fresh N/NE winds across the entire region, a but more NW earlier in the morning.
On Sunday the front will approach with stronger N winds ahead of the change. S winds will hit the Mid N Coast by late Sunday afternoon and Monday for N NSW and SE QLD.
The New Week
The change late Sunday and into Monday looks like it'll be fairly strong and bring with it some promise of some decent swell for next week.
At this stage, it’s looking like a low could form off the coast Mid N Coast and linger for a while bringing a persistent swell lasting into the end of next week.
Let’s not get too excited though it’s a while off. We’ll keep an eye on it.