Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strengthening N winds Mon with a building NE windswell, peaking Tue with strong N winds, tending N/NW 
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• Early window of W/SW-SW winds Wed with easing NE windswell before strong S’lies
• Small blend of S swells Thurs, easing quickly
• Period of W’ly winds and small S swells from Fri-Sun

Recap

Sets from the S/SE groundswell showed in the 4-5ft range Sat a’noon, holding at that size Sun morning before easing with offshore winds in the morning tending to fresh N/NE winds Sun a’noon. Workable NE windswell has built today into the 3ft range with fresh N to NE winds.

This week and next week (Mar 18 - 29)

Pretty typical late Summer pattern with a high in the Tasman and a maturing trade-wind flow in the Coral Sea, linked to an active monsoon trough with a small embedded low in the Coral Sea. There is a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria which formed over the weekend but this system is expected to track inland over the NT and Kimberley regions and not be a swell source for the East Coast. Strong NE winds off the high are generating increasing swells for NETas. We’ll see this pattern disrupted mid-week by an aggressive trough which brings S winds and swell before the next high slowly resets the trade pattern, this time further north in the Coral Sea.

Short term and heaps of size from the NE tomorrow as the fetch really aims up at Tas. Expect surf in the 6-8ft range with fresh/strong N/NE winds.

Get in early Wed for a window of W/SW-SW winds as a trough pushes NE of Tas. This winds will shift quickly to the SW-S then S with NE swell to 4-5ft also easing during the day.

The trough now moves too quickly away from Tas to generate much swell with just a small blend of S and leftover E/NE swell to 1-2ft on Thurs under offshore winds.

Following that a busy frontal period occurs, although the fetches are all zonal so we’ll only see minor S swell wrap with a stiff and constant W-W/NW flow. 

Expect those winds to kick in Fri and carry through the weekend with only brief interludes of lighter winds on Sat. Small S swells to 2ft at S facing beaches look most likely on later Sat into Sun/Mon.

Not much on offer to start next week with small S swells petering out Tues and some tiny surf after that.

Let’s see how it looks on Wed.