Craig

Bali: Endless pulses of large swell on the way

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 24th Jul)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period besides Saturday

Tomorrow onwards (Jul 25 onwards)

A new mix of inconsistent S/SW groundswells due to fill in today and peak through this afternoon will ease off gradually through tomorrow and bottom out Saturday morning.

Fresh to strong E/SE trades are expected for the most part, liming the best waves to protected locations which will miss out on the most size. Exposed spots in Bali should ease from an inconsistent 5-6ft+ tomorrow morning and become smaller Saturday.

Into Saturday evening and more so Sunday an initial long-range and very inconsistent SW groundswell is due, topping exposed spots back up to 6ft+ but of greater importance is the better and larger SW groundswell due late in the day Sunday and Monday morning.

This has been generated by a very strong frontal system moving through the Southern Indian Ocean, on top of the active sea state produced by the front generating Sunday morning's initial SW swell.

A peak in size is likely overnight Sunday with 8ft waves seen either side of this peak, and the odd 10ft bomb in the mid Monday morning.

A slight drop in size is due through Monday afternoon before steadying Tuesday in the 6-8ft range.

A slightly better S/SW groundswell pulse on the cards Wednesday has been downgraded a touch, but it will still provide an uptick in intensity from Tuesday. This swell will be generated on the backside of the front producing Monday's swell, with a broad and elongated fetch of SW gales expected to push up towards WA.

This should push exposed spots back to the 8ft+ range, with a touch more size for east facing breaks, but with poor winds.

A temporary drop in size is then due into Thursday ahead of a large and strong S/SW groundswell Friday afternoon.

This groundswell will be produced by a stronger polar front projecting up towards WA, over the active sea state generated by the system producing Wednesday's swell, with a fetch of severe-gale to near storm-force SW winds being generated.

A large and powerful S/SW groundswell should result, arriving through Friday and peaking into the afternoon/evening to 10ft+ across exposed breaks in Bali. E/SE trades are expected to start to weaken on Friday but may not be week enough for variable breezes to develop early morning. Saturday and Sunday look more likely as the groundswell drops away steadily.

Longer term our large pulses of groundswell through the start of August are still on track, with an initial long-range pulse on Tuesday likely to be backed up by a larger increase Wednesday. More on this in Tuesday's update though.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

kerry1's picture
kerry1's picture
kerry1 commented Thursday, 24 Jul 2014 at 7:28pm

Oh My! I wish I were there. 10ft bombs!! What a dream come true. Looks like 2015 will be my four trip year.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Friday, 25 Jul 2014 at 11:54am

O dear looks like Bali trip number 4 this year. No surf on the aus Ec for a while.
Hope the wife approves.

IF im not surfing im racing

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Sunday, 27 Jul 2014 at 10:38pm

Baliwaves Tweet at 9:45am 27th July
‏@Baliwaves
Surf check on the Outer Reefs of Tuban showing 2-4ft between Kuta Reef and Airports. It's not on...
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9:45 AM - 27 Jul 2014

Reports double overhead in Java though

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 27 Jul 2014 at 11:08pm

Swell wasn't due until late in the day, and Slim's obs are always under-cooked in my experience.

Bells kicked to an inco 3-5ft this afternoon from the same storm, so with that size in Vicco it should of got very solid late.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 commented Monday, 28 Jul 2014 at 5:47am

A mate of mine is up at Medewi and reported head & a half to double overhead all yesterday afternoon.