The (Un)Official Olympic Forecast - Four Days to Go

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

As we get closer to the opening day of competition for the Tokyo Olympics - Sunday the 25th - we've got a clearer idea of what's in story for the inaugural surfing event. While the Australian team arrive only a few days before the event kicks off, giving them little time to get accustomed to the local surf, other nations are dividing their warm up sessions between Tsurigasaki and the new Japanese wave pool.

As forecast, Typhoon In-Fa is currently doing its thing, tracking across the southern extend of the Okinawa Prefecture but our attention is drawn to a second Typhoon which is forecast to develop south-east of Honshu this weekend.

Satellite pass of the current synoptic setup this morning. Source: Zoom.Earth

When it does form, it'll be named Nepartak, originating from the name of a Kosrae warrior (a Micronesian island). The warrior Typhoon, quite apt for the Olympics, is a tricky one with a forecast trajectory taking it from Tsurigasaki's far south-eastern swell window to its most northern, all within two days.

This all looks to take place through the weekend and Monday morning, with Nepartak clearing the swell window by Monday evening.

We've still got some divergence regarding the speed and track of Nepartak, but we'll most likely see a rapid increase in east-southeast tending easterly swell through Sunday afternoon, which is the first day of competition, but with onshore NE winds, likely peaking Monday from the east-northeast as winds shift from NW to SW as Tsurigasaki falls under the south-western flank of the Typhoon.

Bumpy, building surf to the 4-5ft range is likely on Sunday afternoon, likely peaking Monday to a great 6ft with those offshore winds. The swell will then ease rapidly Tuesday as winds persist from the SW.

Great snapshot of Typhoon Nepartak, however it moves very fast through Tsurigasaki's swell window

Sandbanks and other local issues notwithstanding, this should allow for three days of respectable surf conditions, though any stalling of Nepartak will delay the shift to offshore winds Monday along with moving the peak in swell back more towards Monday afternoon/Tuesday.

Once Nepartak moves off to the north-west through the middle of the week, it may drag in further instability, providing small surf out of the east into the end of the waiting period.

With this outlook we may see the event wrapped up in the initial four days of the waiting period. The caveat here is that with a Typhoon in the mix, conditions are prone to rapid change so there's a chance organisers may seek to hold off and run it in (potentially) more settled conditions at the end of the waiting period.

All in all it adds up to some exciting weather watching in the lead up to the event. Keep an eye on the comments below for running updates.

Chiba East 16-day Forecast Graph
Chiba East 16-day Forecast WAMs

Comments

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 12:04pm
lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 12:24pm

Very strange that while there must be a l bunch of surfers at Chiba already, the only surfing clips I’ve seen are at the pool.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 12:28pm
lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 12:40pm

I’m all for surfing in all kinds of conditions but geez that taking small wave surfing to a different level of small. That’s friggin tiny.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 1:28pm

I call it rubbish/desperate/have a look tomorrow.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 1:35pm

And if the predicted typhoon wasn't warming up, this would be the conditions for the entire comp.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 1:55pm

That is dire!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 6:51pm

You could say "Yeah I busted an air and it was twice as high as the wave," and people would be like ooooooooo

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 12:48pm

The skateboarding should be good.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 1:40pm

Can't believe they might actually strike gold with a typhoon. What's the chances! Shame they can't be mobile but should at least be interesting now. Great work on the forecast.

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:35pm

"Can't believe they might actually strike gold with a typhoon."
Haha they deserve a medal if they do?
And yea great work as always Craig.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:44pm

Ahhh very nice Westofthelake. ha

megzee's picture
megzee's picture
megzee Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:04pm
Ed Sloane's picture
Ed Sloane's picture
Ed Sloane Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:17pm

Supports my theory that professional surfers attract waves.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:19pm

How many days do they need to wrap this thing up?

Owen & Sally for gold

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:21pm

Four days from an eight day window.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 2:41pm

Sounds like a lot of heats.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 4:04pm

Carissa was on the Japanese news reading a pre-written statement but her pronunciation and intonation was really impressive.

Reason no clips have dropped is because it's been flat. Barely knee high for a week. They should get pretty good surf next week though. Definitely contestable anyway.

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 7:13pm

Been there and done that - not an easy task. Very admirable just having a go. Nice work Carissa.

benjis babe's picture
benjis babe's picture
benjis babe Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 8:39pm

kolohe surfing a wave like I surf a lot on the sunny coast. it looks pretty ripable to me. if I don't surf that size, then I don't surf a lot. its always a fun challenge to surf that size and it keeps u fit and in the water when there are no other options

NDC's picture
NDC's picture
NDC Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 9:39pm

And from time to time it’s interesting to see what the best in the world can make of slop ... forces me to stop blaming the waves, my board, my age, my luck .... and forces me to get on with making the most of what’s there

sideshow's picture
sideshow's picture
sideshow Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 10:19am

Well, you definitely do have to have the right board to make anything of this slop.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Thursday, 22 Jul 2021 at 11:18pm

The typhoon swell could be good at a few set ups on the southern islands....
Goto 五島市 via Fukue Regional Airport (FKA) 福江空港(五島つばき空港)
http://www.fukuekuko.jp/

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 7:31am

No sponsor stickers allowed on boards?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 9:41am

(Are you guys doing a similar article or something?)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 9:44am

No, we just don't appreciate links to our competition.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 9:51am

Thought it was relevant/interesting, all good, noted.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 10:17am

Points of order:

1) In ten years we'll all look back at photos like this and wonder WTF we were thinking. I mean, just take the damn masks off for the three seconds the photographer snaps the shot.

2) Or if they REALLY can't take the mask off, then at least put one on the Boxing Kangaroo.

3) Speaking of the Boxing Kangaroo, a cursory glance appears to show it growing horns, though closer observation shows Sal - god bless her - throwing a sly shaka on the roo's head. Can't help herself.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 12:03pm

My first thought was "gee that bloke in the back is tall!"
Then I realised he was standing on a chair.

jshe35's picture
jshe35's picture
jshe35 Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 12:26pm

At first glance I thought this was the remedial class at Hogwarts.......

Got to love the surf team living up to the archetype.... no shoes... no shirt..... NO DICCEEEE

Go Aussies !!!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 3:39pm

olympic boxing kangaroo shakas ftw

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 10:25am

I hear you on that- masks in photos, it's just fucking stupid.

I'm involved in education and there's a whole group of kids that are missing out on really important childhood development. In particular, those in the first couple of years of kindy where it's essential to see a teachers mouth forming words in addition to facial expressions and other non-verbal cues. There's children going through early learning here that have never seen their teachers face.

And the administrators seem totally oblivious to that fact. It does my head in.

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 11:01am

Not sure where you are, but none of the educators at my daughter's childcare or son's kindergarten are required to wear masks, even during the lockdowns, for this reason and others.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 11:23am

I live in Japan.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 12:07pm

It will be interesting to see how certain age groups turn out or differ due to situations like this. Babies, very young not passed around/socialised, teens missing out on years of normality/partying etc.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 10:47am
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 10:54am

How's the footwear Stu?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 11:04am

Bit of everything, eh?

Though I'm more impressed with the crumpled blazers and the fresh-out-of-the-box polo worn by the chap on the far left.

The only matching apparel in the photo are the masks.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 12:05pm

Ties outside the jackets pair well with the crumpled look too.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 7:47pm

You'd at least have thought that Owen would have swapped blazers with the fella on the far right.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 7:48pm

Ha!

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 7:55pm

Amiright?

What a comedy act!

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 11:01am

Anywhere that we'll be able to watch all of the Olympic heats live? Assume the major TV networks will just show highlights.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 11:58am

7+ app should have every event and heat live (I think).

science's picture
science's picture
science Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 4:31pm

bit of a downgrade?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 4:35pm

The models are still struggling on the track and distance of the typhoon in regards to Japan.

GFS is a lot smaller, cleaner and less than ideal, EC is still solid but more onshore. A tricky one as it'll continue to be right until it develops.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 4:47pm

A few small lines around here this morning. Still small but definitely groundswell.

Waves are on the way.

arcadia's picture
arcadia's picture
arcadia Friday, 23 Jul 2021 at 5:43pm

Meanwhile further south, Typhoon Infa has been delivering since Tuesday.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 12:21pm

Can see tiny lines on the Shidashita beach cam. Anywhere other than 7+ where we can see it?

megzee's picture
megzee's picture
megzee Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 12:24pm
udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 4:47pm
zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 6:10pm

Surf was fun today.

Hopefully better tomorrow.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 7:28pm

Nice, the models have come in more towards EC, but not entirely and we'll see building swell tomorrow with freshening onshore winds, becoming stronger Monday with the peak in size. The surf on Tuesday looks great, smaller and offshore for the rest of the period.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 24 Jul 2021 at 7:38pm

looks like it dissipates just off the coast from Tokyo.

drodders's picture
drodders's picture
drodders Sunday, 25 Jul 2021 at 8:06am

4 Athletes and how many micro managers, the Australian way!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 26 Jul 2021 at 1:08pm

Geez if this is the best the surf gets there you'd have to wonder how the hell they were going to run a competition if the typhoon didn't create this swell?

petermitchell's picture
petermitchell's picture
petermitchell Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 9:12am

Looks like Balmoral beach…looks sharky as too…

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 9:18am

Ha, classic NE windswell with a NW change after rain at Manly eh Pete!

petermitchell's picture
petermitchell's picture
petermitchell Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 9:57am

Yeah I dunno, looks more like the inner harbour, Balmoral beach to be specific circa 1970s…bull-sharky as to boot. Look how quickly the whitewash dissipates. It rolls in soft, sucks up below sea level then vanishes.

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 10:23am

Owen Wright!!!! Into the Semi-Final. 75% chance of a medal now. C'mon Owen!!!

Oink's picture
Oink's picture
Oink Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021 at 11:10am

All this time I thought it was going to be held in a wave pool