The (Un)Official Olympic Forecast - 10 Days To Go
As we near closer to the opening of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, there's more promise in the long-range forecast. An area of instability mentioned in the early forecast looks to now provide the catalyst for not just one but two typhoons.
The chart below details the chance of tropical storm activity from now, up until two days before the start of surfing competition, that being Friday, July 23rd. Competitions kicks off on Sunday the 25th and can run through until the 1st of August if need be, though they only need 4 days to complete it. It shows a 50% chance of tropical storm activity, right in the ideal region for generating swell for Tsurigasaki Surfing Beach, the beach chosen for the Olympics.
The first typhoon is due to actually develop north-east of the Phillipines tomorrow, with it reaching cyclone strength over the next 48 hours. If so it will be named Typhoon In-Fa, with it forecast to tack north-northwest, crossing the Okinawa Prefecture early next week.
Following this a secondary, much broader but weaker typhoon looks to develop in almost the same location, but instead track north towards the Honsho mainland. As it does so it will weaken and continue to broaden, with Tsurigasaki being subjected to onshore, E/NE tending NE winds.
The strength at this stage looks to be between strong to gale-force, whipping up a sizey, onshore easterly swell for the region, mixed in with some south-southeast groundswell from the eastern flank of the low.
This is a positive development, and with the typhoon remaining relatively broad, it hopefully won't fully overpower the beach. The only issue are the local winds and at this stage they look initially onshore before improving through the week but this all depends on the movement of the typhoon.
On the days before the event, with a possible larger south-east groundswell from the earlier stages of the typhoon and and north-east winds, the Katsuura region, some 20km down the coast should come to life for competitors looking for a bit of a warm up surf. Keep an eye on the surfers' social media channels.
But coming back to the surf forecast, we'll continue to monitor these developments over the coming week and a half.