The (Un)Official Olympic Forecast - 10 Days To Go

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

As we near closer to the opening of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, there's more promise in the long-range forecast. An area of instability mentioned in the early forecast looks to now provide the catalyst for not just one but two typhoons.

The chart below details the chance of tropical storm activity from now, up until two days before the start of surfing competition, that being Friday, July 23rd. Competitions kicks off on Sunday the 25th and can run through until the 1st of August if need be, though they only need 4 days to complete it. It shows a 50% chance of tropical storm activity, right in the ideal region for generating swell for Tsurigasaki Surfing Beach, the beach chosen for the Olympics.

Probability of tropical cyclone activity for the period 14-23rd July. Source: ECMWF

The first typhoon is due to actually develop north-east of the Phillipines tomorrow, with it reaching cyclone strength over the next 48 hours. If so it will be named Typhoon In-Fa, with it forecast to tack north-northwest, crossing the Okinawa Prefecture early next week.

Following this a secondary, much broader but weaker typhoon looks to develop in almost the same location, but instead track north towards the Honsho mainland. As it does so it will weaken and continue to broaden, with Tsurigasaki being subjected to onshore, E/NE tending NE winds.

The strength at this stage looks to be between strong to gale-force, whipping up a sizey, onshore easterly swell for the region, mixed in with some south-southeast groundswell from the eastern flank of the low.

This is a positive development, and with the typhoon remaining relatively broad, it hopefully won't fully overpower the beach. The only issue are the local winds and at this stage they look initially onshore before improving through the week but this all depends on the movement of the typhoon.

Possible second typhoon forecast, right in the middle of the Tokyo event window

On the days before the event, with a possible larger south-east groundswell from the earlier stages of the typhoon and and north-east winds, the Katsuura region, some 20km down the coast should come to life for competitors looking for a bit of a warm up surf. Keep an eye on the surfers' social media channels.

But coming back to the surf forecast, we'll continue to monitor these developments over the coming week and a half.

Chiba East 16-day Forecast Graph
Chiba East 16-day Forecast WAMs

Comments

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 3:27pm

I hereby declare copyright over any references to typhoon swell impacting on competition site like “Godzilla descending upon downtown Tokyo”.

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 4:14pm

Seconded.

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 4:26pm

Good stuff, Craig.

And good point, Blowin.

adam12's picture
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adam12 Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 4:47pm

Hey Craig, off topic but WTF is this 'moon - wobble' I am hearing about? Fifteen years of low high and high low tides, world wide coastal destruction. Is it real ?

clif's picture
clif's picture
clif Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 6:19pm

Move to Alaska. Land is rising there - for the time being - because of long-term geological processes.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 8:43am

Yeah I did read that and wasn't aware eh. It would be good if NASA put out the percentage changes in expected tides through these periods compared to the standard.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 11:39am

All the SUV's on the moon are parked by the shores of the Sea of Tranquility, and their weight is causing the wobble.

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 7:16pm

those typhoons look too close to Japan to create good waves, be good if they move south east.
By the way anyone here surfed the maluku islands (spice islands) part of indo in the pacific south of Phillipines. hard to get to on land, best way is by boat but those typhoons look good for moratai and serinade which is as perfect as macaronis. in season breaking almost every day but even a good grasp of bahasa indonesia wont get you there yet. They speak a local non national language. and dog is the favorite meat.

Troppo's picture
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Troppo Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 8:58pm

Tried to get there in 1999 Groundswell, but instead ended up on a people smuggling vessel out of Manado in north Indo into General Santos in Philippines. Epic voyage, full moon with a halo, I was the only westerner on board.
Never made it to Maluku, heaps of religious unrest going on at the time so I wasn't too worried. But got some amazing waves and met some great people heading north from Davao up through Cloud Nine and Samar etc to Manila for my ride home.
If you spent time there, please share...

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 9:12pm

Troppo nah i havent been there yet, maybe one day. id like to do it via land bus and ferries rather than a luxery boat or ship.
Ithink dave rasta has been there on a small vessel

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 8:47am

not there.
did a tour of Phillos, went south to Mindanao, Siargao Island, then back to Luzon and north to south in Luzon.

ended up camping out on a perfect left on north Luzon.
no road access, we got a little boat out there.
8hr trip, worst sea voyage ever.

brandonrooney14's picture
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brandonrooney14 Saturday, 17 Jul 2021 at 6:48am

More stories! That was scratching my no international travel itch… good visuals of an adventure Troppo.

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Sunday, 18 Jul 2021 at 7:03am

I have been researching the Maluku islands a lot lately. Business reasons. I never took the time to consider there may be waves there. Off the north coast is ass7me?

groundswell's picture
groundswell's picture
groundswell Sunday, 18 Jul 2021 at 8:50am


be good if i could move the second photo sideways but its the best i could do.

I think it will be a very long time before this area turns into the ments or bali surf slum areas. They are not secret but its very hard to get to and best to have a local guide who can get you there. Most surfers would be better off in other islands in the indian ocean as malaria is rampant and the preferred meat here is dog. And its a long way from anywhere.

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Sunday, 18 Jul 2021 at 10:19am
Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 19 Jul 2021 at 7:15pm

Whereabouts in NSW you moving?

groundswell's picture
groundswell's picture
groundswell Monday, 19 Jul 2021 at 10:06pm

Probably Ulladulla or near areas, nowra would also do. But only if my landlords kick me out for a renovation as there's nowhere else here to go.

Stu2d2's picture
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Stu2d2 Monday, 19 Jul 2021 at 9:05pm

I remember looking at that Serenade joint on google maps years ago and have had a virtual buoy there for years - looks epic. Appears to get big on the odd typhoon - doing a hit and run wouldn’t really be an option due to distance. Northern hemisphere winter appears to get consistent 10-12sec of swell with minimal winds.. fun as.

megzee's picture
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megzee Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 7:33pm

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Don't think they have been classified as Typhoons yet Groundy...
Great link to keep on file mate

kaybeegee's picture
kaybeegee's picture
kaybeegee Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 8:53pm

If you build it, waves will come!

Kind of like CT at New York that time
Or Search at Mexico.
Or that time I rolled the dice on an iffy forecast and went west and scored.

More evidence we are in a simulation.

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... Thursday, 15 Jul 2021 at 10:15pm

A stimulation simulation yew!

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 8:10am

The Oz team land in Japan next week, giving themselves approx. four or five days to get accustomed to what will be a shifty beachbreak.

Wondering if it's a COVID thing, cos I would've thought, given the vagaries of the ocean, you'd want to clock as much water time at Shidashita as possible.

Even the tiniest piece of intel about the wave could hold the key to progressing.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 8:38am

The softball team seem to be going to the other extreme, 43 days before the start of the games:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-10/australia-softball-team-first-arrive-tokyo-olympics-covid-bubble/100201882

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 8:44am

Makes sense.

Unlike surfing, a softball diamond is an everchanging field and taking time to discern the local patterns of change can provide a large advantage over your opponents.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 9:24am

How's the softball forecast looking?

Derryn's picture
Derryn's picture
Derryn Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 4:36pm

Spending as little time in the radiation as possible

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Sunday, 18 Jul 2021 at 12:10pm

Unfortunate name for a beach, let’s hope it doesn’t live up to its name.

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 10:17am

Softball forecast haha yes, it's flat.
So the forecast is saying they've got tattslotto lucky and Huey's going to load up the microscopic event window from the south but Shityshityshitshit beach faces north !?

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 11:46am

Off topic a bit (but still comp related)... not sure if this is Barra? But if so then sand looking pretty nice:

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 11:49am

News said Alex DeMinaur just tested positive and won't get to play.

That kind of thing could influence our surfers.

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 Friday, 16 Jul 2021 at 1:02pm

Only a soft baller knows the feeling.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Monday, 19 Jul 2021 at 7:02pm

Six days out and the forecast is still wildly fluctuating. The only sure thing is that there'll be something - abject flatness won't be a worry for the organisers.

Instead, there'll probably be too much swell and wind, especially going on the latest model output which shows all eight days of the waiting period delivering good size, but with lots of onshore wind to deal with too.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Monday, 19 Jul 2021 at 8:28pm

Early crow. Brazil for the blokes, France for the women based on forecast. Alot of talent in those two teams to handle chunky unpredictable beachies.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Monday, 19 Jul 2021 at 8:50pm

Not much opportunity for warm-up surf atm here, oily glassy all day but tiny. Gonna get real big real quick. My call Tues/Wed next week for the best waves.

Shame they couldn't make it mobile, there's a little spot up the road, rare offshore in a nor-easter and loves a south swell. Barrels HARD and can handle big swell.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 6:50am

I'll have an update today. Typhoon In-Fa has formed and has stayed true to forecast, with it due to pass over the southern Okinawa Prefecture this evening and tomorrow.

A secondary deepening low will follow and it looks very tricky. Either way there is swell on the way but one scenario is much better than the other.

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 3:08pm
Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 3:40pm

Frame grab from the ShittaShitta surf cam.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 4:08pm
zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 4:17pm

I went for a lunchtime bodybash. the water is bath warm, it's baking on land and It's flatter than a nuns...

But don't worry, It's gonna get big, real big. In fact, too big. I reckon they won't be able to hit the water till Tuesday unless they can get out and head north up to here or south to Shonan or wherever.

Warm up surfs are gonna be hard to come by.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 4:20pm

This was this mornings surf check.

Layday for me- ha ha!

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 4:26pm

Actually, I just re-checked the SN forecast and It's all been re-set. Not gonna bo huge but its certainly gonna be solid.

Looks like plenty of surf for the Olympics with less than ideal winds. Could make for some decent viewing.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 7:58pm

Shark attack, sorry Mouth Cuddle at Oarai today. Bout an hour north as the crow flies of Shidashita. Surfer. Not sure of the extent of his injuries but wlll post when I know more.

I reckon they're gonna keep that pretty quiet.

Mouth Cuddles are very rare here.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 8:13pm

Oh wow, interesting.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 8:01pm

In-fa looks like its gonna wreak some havoc

megzee's picture
megzee's picture
megzee Tuesday, 20 Jul 2021 at 8:06pm

Let's hope it's not an Olympic size Mouth Cuddle Zen...
To be honest, I have never heard of a shark attack in that region.........Although the Sea Creature world do have a very good reason to repay the land based seafood obsessed foe.....

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 9:04am

latest SW model looking pretty bloody good I think?! Good east swell and mostly sw winds all week. There'll be Kazakhs buying surfboards this time next week.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 9:10am

Yep first two-three days look good, have drafted an update article but waiting for model alignment as they're still shifting around re the timing of the swells and local winds, depending on the track of the next typhoon.

Roker's picture
Roker's picture
Roker Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 11:03am

The forecast is for a tsunami . A tsunami of COVID-19 spread by returning Olympians akin to the spread of Spanish Flu brought about by returning Great War combatants. At least according to an op-ed in the Nine papers.

It seems that Japan wanted to cancel the Games but have been held to ransom by the IOC under the threat of massive sanctions that calling them off would bring.

I like the Olympics and all, but jeeez?

https://www.watoday.com.au/sport/tokyo-s-olympic-games-could-turn-into-a...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 11:26am

God that article is pure drivel.

The Olympics is a vehicle for corruption on a grand scale, nothing more. No one beyond a tiny handful of athletes would notice if the Olympics were never staged again. Trying to frame the Japanese hosting of the games as anything but the result an auction between international parties vying for the opportunity to gain access to the corruption sanctioned under the Olympic model is pure rubbish.

Similar bullshit articles will be written in the coming years about Australia hosing the Olympics again. Australia, like Japan, only appealed for the Olympics because it’s an incredible funnel of wealth into corrupt pockets. It has zero to do with Japan’s or Australia’s national identity.

The Olympics has to be amongst the largest con job rorts in modern times.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 2:52pm

I totally agree. Nobody here wants it and even though it's upon us. the mood of the people (those I talk to anyway) are about as enthusiastic about it as a soggy kitten.

As for Brisbanes bid- fark that. They're saying that Brisbanites and Queenslanders in general are excited about the games and want it to go ahead. Every single Queenslander I know, including people in Brissie are vehemently against it.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 3:34pm

The con works all the way down.

Ever wondered how a fella who got rich filling the world with disposable consumer fashion footwear which now sits undecomposed in landfill the world over , sold off the back of female sexual objectification, positioned himself as champion of environmentalism and equality expressed through surfing at the Olympics?

Olympic money is the vilest of shit, attracting the most heinous of flies and marketed as the apex of human spiritual purity.

Redeemed only through the genuine hopes of a handful of driven athletes. Though even they are outnumbered by the athletes looking for that big Feature Win Free Spin Olympic Fame Celebrity Payout.

Kaching! Kaching!

megzee's picture
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megzee Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 3:47pm

Well said Blowin and Zenagain....
Imagine the 3rd or 2nd world country sweatshops that feed the surf culture/clothing world.....[ Vietnam happens to be one of them]
Olympic money is the long standing forerunner to every other sport fashion dollar bait in the world today, and sadly, we as surfers contribute......
Didn't Claw just pay 8 mill for a house in Agnus?

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 4:13pm



free image hosting

Baking hot here, oily glassy and the odd knee high death-pit. I'm guessing Shidashita looks roughly the same.

Further to yesterdays Spanish Mackerel Inquisition/Mouth Cuddle. I was chatting to a bloke in the surf. The victim was in his 50's and got a pretty bad bite to his foot- 21 stitches and I'm guessing a cool scar to share with his grandkids.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 4:16pm

Fun fact. The 11th Olympic games were opened by Adolph Hitler prior to WW2. In his opening speech he conceded that Tokyo may be allowed to host the following games but they would return to Germany thereafter to be held there until the end of time.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 4:42pm

Another fun fact- Hitler was the person who suggested the torch relay to begin in Athens.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021 at 4:49pm

ahh he did. Also it was these olympics that first had the represented nations athletes marching into the stadium in alphabetical order. Who says the Olympics are a front for corrupt and questionable human ethics. Hitler managed to use these olympics to drum up propaganda to gain support from his nation and nearby allies for his next, erm phase in life. The snowball effect really kicked off with those games.
Oh, and as a footnote, the following games scheduled for Tokyo, in 1940 were cancelled, for some reason or another.