Forecast Update: Quiksilver Pro G'Land
Quiksilver Pro G'Land - May 28th to June 6th
So we're now two days out from the start of the waiting period, meaning we have a fair idea what the surfers will get at G'Land.
However, before we dive into the forecast let's back it up a bit and talk about something written in the long range forecast, published exactly a week ago.
In it, we mentioned that 16 day computer forecasts were worthwhile for certain coasts and Indonesia was one of them. There is, however, a caveat. That being, long range forecasts are best at identifying trends from far in advance, rather than pinpointing specifics such as accurate wave size.
So if you're wondering about 'waves vs flat spell' for your upcoming Indo trip, then yes, a 16 day forecast will provide the yay or nay, perhaps even indicating a very big yay, but the size details won't firm up until closer to the date. Which is something everyone should keep in mind for their next Indonesian trip.
Anyway, moving on to the matter at hand...
Being open to the entire Indian Ocean and a broad stretch of the Southern Ocean, even parts of the South Atlantic when the swell angle is just right, G-Land is one of the most consistent surf spots in Indonesia. Before the continental shelf drops off - which happens sharply roughly 5-10km offshore - a relatively shallow ridge juts southwest from the tip of Alas Purwo National Park in a classic swell-focussing configuration.
We mention all this not just for trivia but because the organisers will have to lean on G'Land's magical powers of magnification. Despite receiving a very good swell yesterday, there's only a couple of moderate, mid-period swells due through the event window, and their arrival coincides with a dicey tidal cycles - as was addressed in the long range forecast.
Firstly, on the opening day of the waiting period - Saturday the 28th - we should see inconsistent, mid-period S/SW swell impacting the region, originating from a broad polar low last weekend. Patchy fetches - the storm wasn't well-structured - of strong to gale-force winds projected towards Indonesia, the end result being inconsistent 4-6ft sets into Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, easing later on Sunday.
This swell will ease from an inconsistent 4ft range Monday, becoming smaller into the middle of next week.
On the face of it, Saturday and Sunday would seem like competition days, however local winds will be funky owing to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures currently surrounding eastern Indonesia. This can inhibit the establishment of the trade-winds, and as was also mentioned in the last forecast, G'Land is utterly reliant on those SE winds.
Saturday looks void of trade-winds with variable breezes all day creating lumpy, uneven surf, with Sunday seeing even less favourable northerly breezes developing. At this point, Monday also looks dicey with fresher northerly devil winds blowing across the bay and up the face of the waves. Air wind, anyone?
Monsoonal westerly winds will spoil the small fading surf into Tuesday with more variable winds due to kick in Wednesday as the swell bottoms out.
Into Thursday - the sixth day of the ten day waiting period - some acutely southerly swell from a trough squeezing a high along the Western Australian coast is due, and this will provide a slight kick in size but quality will be lacking with a low period and sets to 3-4ft or so.
The next increase in quality swell will be less consistent but from a slightly more southwest direction, arriving late week ahead of some reinforcing energy next weekend.
The source of both swells is a distant, broad, and again not overly well-constructed, low that will form south of South Africa earlier next week. Fetches of gale-force winds will project through Indonesia's far swell window, dissipating south-east of Madagascar resulting in inconsistent sets to 4-6ft from Friday through Saturday and into Sunday next weekend.
On the plus side, the tidal cycle will again become more favourable through this period as well as the development of weaker trade-winds through the days.
Comments
Doesn't sound too promising :(
Not ideal.
I would love it if they all get skunked, and pumping Grajagan isn’t all over every device screen on earth. It’s been a lovely 20 years of no world tour events thank you very much.
The Canggu Euro Ruski mindset are coming..
Well good luck to them...
(No, it's not G'Land but one ocean basin away)
Fucken Jesus
Yep- pretty much sums it up.
Reckon he made it ?
That's one late take-off!
Re andrew.james saying “I hope they get skunked…it’s been a nice 20yrs…”
Yep
Agree
Hear hear
I second that
Right on
You bewt
Fair dinkum yeah
Ye na but yeah
Agree!
As you can see from my handle, i second that motion.
I grew up surfing in Cooly, so yeah...the amount of times my local has been appropriated by a bunch of entitled, aggro, egomaniacs...i was stoked when they dropped Snapper from the tour
Thumbs up to that comment!!!
Posting these again:
We could see G-land decided by airs.
Dont say that! Do not say that!!
Italo!!
strewth
Cant have a national park cess pit for the world to see. Given that Indonesian is a resource rich nation, such wanton disrespect for country highlights the entrenched corruption of Indonesia. But then again similarly for Australia, which t exports waste to Indonesia to be then sorted in the front yards of residents.
Fuck me, where are the WSL boys and girls? Anyone can plant a few bushes in front of the camera on the headland. I would like to see them getting their hands dirty with some real shit. Don't tell me they sent these guys into cleanup before the comp?
Looks like it eh :/
That forecast is not what I want to hear.
Hate seeing rivers like that when you go to parts of Indo. Doing a great job of cleaning it by the looks of that. A lot of rivers to clean in that part of the world.
Here's hoping the Spirits of Alas Purwo conjure up a mediocre contest for the Woz at best...
Nothing to see here, move along ~
No harm in NOT motivating half the world to want to go to Gland after this event .... then again, sub 4ft lefts is what most of the surfing world will flock to...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-2...
Still scratching my head about running the waiting period during this tide cycle.
They really have no idea.
Elo picked the tides and swells to be perfect for a solo jaunt to SUP Tiger Tracks with 50 of his hangers on.
I've been wondering about this too. It's kinda the worst of everything: not the neap tides that some surfers like as Moneytrees gets more predictable, not a full moon obviously, but a new moon with the highs running through the morning.
Looking for a holiday, there's no way I'd choose that time to go.
They've got a fairly big window between Margs and G'Land (24 days) so I assume they were somehow limited for other reasons, perhaps by the camps, perhaps by the national park itself?
I'm cutting them some slack here, but if it isn't any of those things then I agree with your last line.
I’d guess it was to give the cChallenger Series clear air for media. Had to run G-land once they’d finished
How unlucky can you get. This contest should be one for the ages with Gland in June, however a max forecast of basically 4ft (with a couple or rare larger ones) for only a handful of days in the waiting period is fucked.
Anyway, will be a million times better to watch than Manly and water will be clear.
Medina for the win
Has there been more froth ever before than this event? Expectations are always going to be hard to meet. Can’t wait to hear the Woz spin if it doesn’t pump
well at least the field of 24 is a bonus time wise........
They’ll make it look amazing anyway.
Could very well still pump. Maybe not 8 ft speedies but still great waves.
Climate change
Watched that Quik vid again, and it's unreal. Big Louis and TC!
It's cruel for a naturalfoot to realise that there just isn't a righthand version of Indo lefts.
Yet we have backdoor. O t w.
J bay . Sunset. Nias. Kirra . Snapper.
Shipsterns. P pass.
Plenty of rights around the world, but imagine what it'd be like for a naturalfoot to find a mirror image of all the Indo dry season lefts.
Closest I've come is a certain Atlantic village with three very good to world class rights within close range.
The whole east coast of Oz isn’t far off it for natural footers!
But yeah hard to beat Indo
If the Woz went and used Bailey ladders as the footings for their great judging tower I'd have never said a bad word about them again.
Instead they let a brilliant opportunity pass and I keep my seat in the peanut gallery.
Haha bamboo ladders were used?
Waiting period in the South Pacific on the other hand. Pack it up and head to cloudies
Crikey that is not the type of surf I expected this contest to go down in.
How unlucky can you get, it’s generally the most consistent joint ever.
But on the other hand, if it doesn’t entice thousands of people to book their next holiday to Grajagan it’s not all bad.
No. Please no. Let it be good.
Like Cloudbreak, you have to be a very very good surfer to surf gland at size. It's perfect for not being perfect. Its warpy, unpredictable etc. Can be hard paddle, you get caught inside etc, it can be a lot of serious effort - unlike many indo waves where effort for joy is much lesss. I just don't think it's a wave for the average punter at any size, but a great comp wave
Again another contest site where Huey says fuck off.
The pros will make ordinary G land look like it's pumping to most people.
And Indo has been better in the last half of the season with bigger better swells rather than the first half in the last 4 or 5 years,from my experience until 2020,then from what i've heard from a handful of people who've been there fultime the last couple of years.
Yup. It's a terrible map. Took a good look at it last night.
Maybe a few things might change late in the period but alot going against it.
Is Yago in it? Is he a goofy? Can't remember but if yes for both, putting him down for the win.
Still be plenty of tube dodging from the top half of the WokeSL who are now the top bill going from they’re website and all relevant post ie Big Wave Announcements…
Whoops this will fire up the crazies ?
This orecastfay is looking toy as ukfay. When this ompcay was ancayed due to the cough, the surf pumped day and night through the entire indoway. What an ameshay lad.
, On a side note are the Ments looking as per the G land forecast? Or similarly ordinary?
Similar and with less favourable periods of NW winds.
Slack'ish morning high, NE winds, ok swell. Perfect conditions for my fave Indo righthander.
Sounds good to me! Does it start with an ‘R’?
P
Mmmmmm….Indo rights.
How does G-Land break on smaller swells? Is it suckier because it breaks further in on the reef or does it just get weaker?
Breaks up into sections, especially with a bit of tidal movement. Curious to see what they consider 'out the back', in terms of gaining priority.
Ooh that doesn't sound good, but yeah could create some interesting opportunities for guys without priority
Still 9-10 days till the end of the window. That’s plenty of time for a forecast upgrade - it’s far from baked in (fingers crossed). On the plus side, WSL can pick up a shitload of plastic straws in 9-10 days!
Thing is storms need to form over the coming week to generate swell for the window. There's a possibility for a new swell arriving on the final afternoon of the waiting period but we'll see.
Do they still have that old rule where they can extend the window if all the surfers vote in favour?
Haven't seen it done for a long time
To answer my own question, the rule is below.
If Competition has Commenced - Extension of Event Window
to Finish a CT Event: The remaining CT Surfers in the CT Event
will be consulted by WSL at an arranged meeting regarding any
decision to extend the CT Event window to finish the CT Event;
provided that the ultimate decision will be made by WSL in its
sole discretion, taking into consideration the best interests of the
sport of surfing.
Few other stakeholders are party to that decision: the national park and its rules, and the camps and their bookings.
Imagine booking a trip just after the event and they extend and snake your best surf
How is the storm on the last day of the window shaping up?
It's not. Was only on a couple of model runs.
Oh dear
They would also need to consider the short turnaround before the El Salvador comp. Only 5 days as it is to transfer everyone around the globe.
The flight schedule looks anything but fun - G-Land > Denpasar > Singapore > LAX > El Salvador over 48 hours, or similar time via Istanbul+JFK
So amazing how accurate wet and wetter article was with winds and this article too.
Dont think i will go to indo this year if the trades won't kick in.
Maybe a year for lakey peak and central sumbawa area.
If west oz didnt exist, im sure g land would get a lot more south swells that last a bit longer.
jeezuz, don't go there, we've got enough problems moving NZ so we get more E'ly groundswell.
Haha!
Be careful we don't shift the North Island 700km farther NNE. Endless E offshores, better E swells, and still all the great circle SW swells we need.
Not to mention the planned great se cut to run from Augusta to Collie to produce a east facing / south swell catching coastline in WA, buy your Nannup future beachfront lots now!
And the Kangaroo Island relocation plan to provide relief for surf starved mid coast surfers
Well, a few things have been pointed out well in advance by the swellnet team.
I would make sense for the wsl to use your services in the future to save face and avoid embarrassment.
This week's swell:
where's the tubes at?
Head High and peaky at Ulu atm
https://balibelly.com/pages/uluwatu
To achieve small onshore gland in June is a feat only the wsl could achieve
Place picks up so much swell even if a sea gull farts it’s head high
Might be a bit like this..
Basically Manly over a reef.
Was really looking forward to this comp, now I can’t wait for it to be over
Looks like that low near Madagascar is dieing off and heading south...hope they still get the swell.
It's been generated already.
Ah cool, i hope they surf the ledge, im not a hundred percent sure but i think ledge likes SW swells and lower tides from memory.
I still remember Camel charging it at eight foot plus in the nineties.
I hope its worse than forecast!
Geez that's some great backhand surfing by Jordy. Top shelf. I can't remember the last time i saw Jordy doing turns on his backhand on an overhead wave. Looks insane.
Looks like they've scored just not during the contest
Thanks for these! I don't have insta but love to see these. That robbo one is fucking sick!
Holy Fookin Hell Jack Robbo !!
Any care to throw a score at that wave of Robbo’s
he will be ripping when he learns how to ride the barrel........looks like desert point
What time is kick off?
11.30 Aussie east time
Thanks IB
Hopefully they allow Swellnet to stream it
Yes, I'm really looking forward to it, even if it looks lacklustre.
Gabe looks very very loose and relaxed, btw. No Toledo-style overamping:
I reckon Italo for the win with Callum Robbo as runner up.
Nah Gabs and JJF......put ya chop sticks on it
Done.
Haha
Best day of the forecast
Maybe there is a GOD
Don't speak to soon, swell is sill on the way, Period should jump a good bit this arvo, it did in the SW Thursday, lots of west in this 36hr swell though.
Bring on the south devil wind Huey
Copy
Tell ya what I was being generous with my call of 4ft for the opening day.
One of the comps I was looking forward all year and it’s harder to watch than Manly.
Things are really falling apart with the forecast. Looks like we've got another day, perhaps two, of westerly/variable winds on top of a very small swell by Indo standards.
The winds on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look more promising, however there's no great increase in swell. O/night Thursday, forerunners of a new swell hit but the storm that created it was weak and aimed more into West Oz, size prob around 4' on Friday, and similar through Sat and Sun.
The Woz has 34 heats to run, so at minimum 17 hours run time, equating to two very full days, but more likely run over three days.
Some trivia:
All four G'Land comps - '95, '96, '97 and '22 - have had the same window of late May/early June.
In three days it'll be the anniversary of the '94 tsunami.
Looking like an epic fail. Any chance they'd let them extend it? I'd imagine there'd be bookings galore straight after comp window........
Edit: would be tough to extend, given they've got to be in El Salvador by 12th June
Maybe it’s the G-land jungle spirits way of saying to the woz we don’t want you here. Spooky I know eh
Not only will it be small, as with most Indo swells it will be inconsistent.
When they do run it will be lots of sitting around to watch someone surf a 2 - 3 foot close out.
Just cancel the comp.
Just had a look at the forecast and the day after the waiting period will now have waves. 8th Jun onwards will be proper pumping.
Yep, they've not been lucky at all. Swells Friday and into the weekend should be an inconsistent 4-5ft on the sets, easing from Sunday arvo.
what Goofyfoot said. The Island gods have spoken, away with you WSL.
Bit of action on the lay days, Joe Turps even getting loose...
This is kind of surprising it like Sarges Scrapbook 2022, i thought the WSL and all pro surfers would be causing an uproar and be canceled for having a few drinks and partying especially seeing the event hasn't even finished.
Like the post Olympics parties, wonder if they played it safe ;p
Joe might have nasty sores around his mouth on the next broadcast.
That's great. Good to see them let loose in the comfort of the jungle. No groupies and hangers on that would follow them around endlessly
Newly single Gabe slaying everything in sight
Steph looking alright especially with a few shoeys under the belt......Turps letting his hair down.....wonder whos shoe he was using ...can ya get tinea of the mouth...could be a godsend ....yep jungle fever is setting in.....lord of the flies stuff
Surprised with the couple of days coming up a few crew didnt head back into Bali to rip into a couple of European beauties.
Heineken or Carlsberg?
They did! A mate just saw gabs in bali yesterday.
Laura with some updates too - small and onshore
holy hell, never knew G-land went flat and onshore in the dry season!
Anyone have info on 1990? Comp with BL Kong and Rob Bain heading into the jungle during a session and showing up next morning naked with spears.
Looks like a ton of fun.
Swell due later this week has come in nice but inconsistent across Margs..
What day was that Craig? Not today or yesterday (unless it was the one set of the day you cherry picked from a cam rewind?), if it was monday (when the waves were good)its would already be in Indo by now.
Today, 6:54am.
Here's another 5mins before hand..
smaller shittier in real life, no chance of this swell impacting gland
Yeah it will, was generated south and south-east of South Africa. Should provide inco 4ft surf, maybe rare bigger 5ft'er.
Here? 3 guys out at head height Margs right now
Sorry Craig, I don’t believe This swell has any chance of being 4 - 5 foot at G’Land.
Hope I’m wrong, but I’m seeing an inconsistent 2-3ft
Will be bigger than 2-3ft. Trust me.
I hope you’re right.
Im sticking with 2 - 3 foot (very occasional 4 foot sets every 45 minutes) with surfers sitting around for 15 minutes between waves. Not even sure it will go offshore so as Freeride76 said ages ago, i believe this comp will be decided by airs.
You do you, I'll do me.
Forecast charts at fifty paces.
Just for reference, what are you calling the opening day size? I'm calling that 3 - 4 foot.
I believe this coming swell will be smaller.
Maybe at the top of Kongs but will it get to Money's
Nice direction.
I reckon Craig could be right, one of the swell buoys showed 2.6m @ 13s (190deg) leading up to day 1 of the comp, the same buoy is showing 2.7m @14.5s (217deg) now, so tomorrow arvo or Friday morning Gland should see it, if the buoy proves to be accurate. I think money trees likes more south than west, could be a Kongs day if winds cooperate.
Can they move to Kongs?
Not unless they can erect a makeshift tower in two days.
A few Bailey's ladders maybe?
By my calculations if Steph got knocked in the Quarters she would win 16,000 USD.
That seems incredibly easy work for a couple of surfs at head high G-land.
no wonder she was gettin' loose
Or relocate the speedies tower maybe.
More updates from the party, looks like good fun, even Renato going jungle crazy
I get the weirdest feeling.
As though finally, things are back how they should be.
Cut the dark, brooding, stick to my own entourage athlete and just have some fun...
How’s Renato… I CAN SMELL KOLO!
How many beers a day would getting Drunk / Drank ....couple of thousand ?
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