Wet and Wetter

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

We're about to cop it from both sides.

This coming winter and spring, the Eastern Seaboard will see a continuation of wetter than normal weather, however it won't only be due to La Niña.

As the seasons turn, the lingering La Niña signal in the Pacific Ocean will combine with warmer waters off Western Australia’s north-west coast. This will see an additional source of moisture feeding down from the north-west across the country, coupled with sporadic incursions from the north-east.

Similar to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Pacific Ocean, which sees a difference in oceanic heating across the equator, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) registers a warm/cool water signal across the Indian Ocean.

There’s a difference in timing though with the ENSO signal (in the Pacific) developing through our winter and spring, influencing rainfall and surf patterns through our summer and autumn, while the IOD develops through winter and peaks during spring, influencing our climate through the same winter and spring period. The lack of lag between the warm/cool water signal in the Indian Ocean and effect on the Australian climate is due to it being directly off our doorstep compared to the more distant Pacific Ocean signal.

A negative IOD event occurs when warmer than normal water develops around Indonesia with cooler than normal water off East Africa. The opposite is a positive IOD event, that being cool water off Indonesia and warm water off East Africa.

The negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Source: BOM

OK, a quick refresher...

The past two summers we’ve been under the influence of a La Niña pattern. Stronger than normal easterly trade-winds along the equator have upwelled cool water throughout the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while piling up warmer water in the Western Pacific (i.e to our north and north-east).

This warm water provides moisture to the atmosphere, bringing an increase in convection and instability, hence rain. The lower pressure from the rising air also pushes the subtropical high pressure belt further south than normal across the Australian region, opening up the East Coast to increased levels of easterly swell energy while also pushing the westerly storm track further south towards Antarctica.

The warmer ocean water becomes, the less dense it is and this creates a slight, localised increase in sea level compared to normal. Cold water is denser, and lowers the sea level slightly. With the pile up of warmer water across the western Pacific Ocean we also get a slight rise in the sea level compared to the Indian Ocean, and as a consequence warm water flows through Indonesia into the Indian Ocean as it tries to balance out this difference in height.

This is known as the Indonesian Throughflow (image below) and is worthy of a future article by itself.

Difference in sea level (cm) between the western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean

The Indonesian Throughflow reaches a peak in winter, hence we usually see negative (i.e warm) IOD events following strong La Niña years as the warm water from the Pacific Ocean filters through, but they're not always correlated. Last year we saw a weak negative IOD following the 2020/21 La Niña, but this year's looks to be stronger again. That being warmer than normal water around Indonesia and cooler than normal water off eastern Africa.

The same physics regarding warm water bringing increased convection, rainfall, instability, and lower pressure occur with the IOD. With the negative event seeing warmer than normal water off the north-west of Australia, this provides an increase in available moisture to be dragged down across the country by upper level winds in winter and spring, bringing plentiful rainfalls to central and south-eastern Australia.

Looking at the months ahead and seasonal forecasts have the waters around Indonesia being 2°-2.5° above normal, with cooler waters off eastern Africa, signaling a strong negative IOD event.

Sea Surface Temperature anomaly forecast for July - note the warm water forecast around Indonesia and lingering La Niña signal in the Pacific Ocean (Source: NOAA)

The Bureau of Meteorology and reciprocal agencies across the world all agree a strong negative IOD event will develop this winter (possibly surpassing 2016's strong event), peaking through spring. Meanwhile, the rainfall forecasts for the coming three months show the flow on effects for our country,  that being a higher than normal chance of rainfall stretching from the north-west to the south-east - see image below.

Chance of exceeding median rainfall for the months May, June and July (Source: BOM)

That's all well and good, but what does it mean for surf?

Similar to La Niña, the lower than normal pressure across the Indonesian region will result in weaker than normal trades across eastern and central Indonesia, with more frequent winds out of the NW for Sumatra and North Sumatra. Morning land breezes should also last a little longer across eastern regions where the water is warmest.

Swell wise, it looks like we’ll see more northward located, mid-latitude/cut-off storms dominating the winter which are generally a touch weaker than their polar brothers, resulting in slightly lower period swells in general. That being less 18-20s+ groundswells and more with energy between 14-16s.

Counter to this, during strong positive IOD years, the cooler than normal waters around Indonesia promote stronger than normal S/SE-SE trade-winds, causing further upwelling and a further strengthening of the winds.

2019 was one of the strongest positive IOD events in the last two decades and it wrecked havoc across the Mentawais, limiting surfing options to more protected spots out of the wind.

Below I’ve posted graphs from the last two significant IOD events: the 2016 negative event, and the 2019 positive event. Making comparisons, current forecasts have this year's negative IOD event being as strong as, if not stronger, than 2016's. The first two graphs show the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for the months July to October and the respective wind regime across the Indonesian region. Note the lower than normal pressure across Indonesia and stronger than normal NW winds across Sumatra.

The last graph shows the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly for the 2019 positive event. In contrast to 2016, note the higher than normal pressure across Australia and below Indonesia.

As for the Australian region, it looks like the mix of lingering La Niña signal and strengthening negative IOD event will result in more mid-latitude lows/fronts for the southern states, bringing west swells and west winds, though the regional Forecaster Notes will provide the specific details.

Lastly, some will wonder if we’re still looking at a trifecta and third La Niña summer. Early indications are that a warm Kelvin wave that’s formed in the western Pacific Ocean will flow east over the coming months, possibly breaking down the current cold water signal leading to a more neutral (La Niña slanted) outlook next summer.

More on this in the coming months.

Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for August to October 2016 (strong negative IOD event). Note the lower pressure across Indonesia

Wind speed and direction anomaly (difference from normal) for August to October 2016 (strong negative IOD event). Note the stronger than normal NW breezes across Sumatra

Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for August to October 2019 (strong positive IOD event). Note the higher pressure across Indonesia and low south-east of South Africa

 

Comments

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 12:49pm

Well fuck.

simba's picture
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simba Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 1:01pm

yep good work Craig

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 7:04am

Thanks Simba.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 1:08pm

Jeezus.
Good for the MDB.

lomah's picture
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lomah Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 2:41pm

FR76 if your interested in the MDB the MDB Authority have a great weekly report detailing rainfall, river inflows, storage levels, etc that is available on the front page of their website.
https://www.mdba.gov.au/

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 2:43pm

Cheers Lomah, will check it out.

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 1:30pm

So is La Nina still hanging in there? Not quite busted up yet?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 1:35pm

Yep is still powering. It's a strong Modoki signal at the moment.

sean killen's picture
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sean killen Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 1:57pm

More east swells Craig ?? Sick of rain .. loving the waves

Chris Buykx's picture
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Chris Buykx Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 3:54pm

Thinking about the Maldives - this could be good. Stronger mid latitude lows off WA coast should result in better pulses of SSE swell. Unfortunately probable fewer SE Trade swells from trade wind belt south of indo. On balance i am guessing more stronger swells from passing lows and less consistent small to mid range background trade swell.
Craig - any thoughts on Maldives outlook?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 3:57pm

Yep, you'e basically nailed it.

SingleFin95's picture
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SingleFin95 Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 4:34pm

Thanks Craig.

So what does this actually mean for each of the states?

You touched on west swells and west winds, guess this translates to a wild and wooly winter for WA and SA?

And for the eastern seaboard, are we likely to see more polar lows climbing up into the Tasman and less predominance of east swells as La Niña breaks down?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 4:43pm

Unfortunately it's hard to nail down specifics with so many varying factors at play. Take one look at the next two weeks and the divergence model run to model run let alone between the models is nuts. With the extra moisture input from both sides and cold air as the catalyst it looks to be a volatile late autumn/winter.

Looks to be more lows in the Tasman to me rather than strong polar outbreaks. The 2-3°C positive SST anomalies off the southern NSW coast will feed these as well. Lower than normal pressure is forecast across the East Coast, a bit higher than normal across the roaring forties.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 4:43pm

Sounds like ample ammo for the alps?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 4:45pm

Indeed, just luck to whether or not we'll get the cold air. Lots of moisture. So either dumping or rained out.

Ed Sloane's picture
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Ed Sloane Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 4:52pm

So you're saying G-Land will be small?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 4:54pm

Nah, G-Land is a magnet. Swells might be a touch weaker than a normal season.

Gra Murdoch's picture
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Gra Murdoch Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 5:18pm

Articles like this are one of the reasons I love Swellnet. I've always really struggled to concentrate, understand and follow the science of weather, but it's explained so carefully and well that each time I read one of these pieces I feel like I get my head around it just a little more. So thanks.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 7:05am

Thanks Gra, stoked you're learning as well.

endru's picture
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endru Saturday, 14 May 2022 at 10:40pm

Completely agree!

spidermonkey's picture
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spidermonkey Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 7:10pm

East Indo then. lighter trades opening up all those trade wind affected breaks for when the swell comes through. But what a year for the east aussie coast point breaks, and how's that system setting up for next week!

AlfredWallace's picture
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AlfredWallace Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 7:31pm

Craig, brilliant. I don’t ever want hear another subscriber complain about a Surfcam being down, Howsa about that for some info for the old grey matter to digest. Simply superb.
Keep up the good work SWNet HQ, if you’re not a subscriber and just a freeloader, now’s the time to cough up your hard earned.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 7:06am

Thanks Alfred.

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Bainoh Friday, 6 May 2022 at 7:49am

I've tried a few other subscriptions, this is by far the most useful & informative out there in my opinion. Will be a lifelong subscriber.

nextswell's picture
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nextswell Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 8:35pm

Yep this is what we pay for. Similar to 2016? Probably not relative but same year as the black NE swell/ east coast low. We definitely don’t need anymore rain but I can’t complain about the swell.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 8:47am

Looks to be a similar, weaker version setting up next week.

southey's picture
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southey Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 8:44pm

You’ve come a long way Craig .
Definitely out of your apprenticeship
Congratulations .

Now you can continue to see how this and the the transitions between each cycle depend on each other and inturn effect the ACPW + LWT .
I’d also like you to get into the ITF effect on both after the PDO contributes .

Organised Chaos ….

Cheers you’ve probably saved me about 30 painful conversations in the next few months . Being time poor , makes it hard be concise when Conveying these topics .

@Freeride MDBA and our SE SA friends may see some struggle in the next 6-9 mths . That is to keep ones feet dry ….

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 5 May 2022 at 9:43pm

Thanks Southey, appreciate it, now I need to go back to your years old posts and look into them again with a greater appreciation and understanding.

Max Wax's picture
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Max Wax Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 9:04pm

I've been trying to get my head around Southeys old posts for a long while ahaha

southey's picture
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southey Friday, 6 May 2022 at 2:18am

Ha ha .
I’m encouraging you .

One thing that perplexes me is the density of waters topic .
Because the explanation of lower sea levels is counter intuitive to MSL influence from atmospheric pressure anomalies from above .
ie higher atmospheric pressure anomalies should then lead to slightly lower tides and inverse proportional for lower atmospheric anomalies .

Which is usually more so seen on individual systems rather than seasonal averages .
ie a strong cyclone / hurricane/ typhoons’ with extremely low central pressure would see more significant rise in the tide peaks . Add to that the storm surge anomalies from such systems .

The reason I mention this is the occurrence of Strong Cyclones forming in the Bay of Bengal in the month of May and then its ability to hinder or block the western ITF’s progress and in turn halt the build of that years Neg IOD influence .
That’s the ultimate cock block to this flow ons moisture influence from La Niña . .

Segway a larger version explanation of your recent “ Sydney boundary Pressure / Tidal wave article “ .

Food for thought .

Or Maybe a teleconection explanation of seasonal SST patterns effects on the higher possibility of MF’s Rattlesnake baring it’s fangs from season to season .

Sega na leqa

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 7:12am

Very interesting and thanks for that extra input Southey. Will digest it when I get time.

I tried to correlate the strength of the back to back Nina's with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation but the data I used (ONI index) tracked the IPO almost identically. There are differences, but I was looking for a more convincing overriding IPO signal forcing stronger Nina/Nino's.

ruckus's picture
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ruckus Friday, 6 May 2022 at 4:50pm

To Craigos and Southey bloody well done. Interesting stuff. All different types of wizardly of different levels going on here.

And Rattlesnake… that sure does sound enticing. Listening to it right now and it sure brings back memories of mystic waves in far away locations.

Indeed no worries, no problems ya legends

Yyyyyyyyiiiiiiipppp

vicbloke's picture
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vicbloke Friday, 6 May 2022 at 6:57am

Thanks Craig. Your explanations have been greatly appreciated for a dumb ass like myself. Your state the following "Similar to La Niña, the lower than normal pressure across the Indonesian region will result in weaker than normal trades across eastern and central Indonesia, with more frequent winds out of the NW for Sumatra and North Sumatra. Morning land breezes should also last a little longer across eastern regions where the water is warmest". Was looking at the Ments or further north this season but now thinking Sumbawa. Won't hold you accountable but do you think this would be a good move?

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 7:00am

If that favours the waves you're looking to surf, then yeah. Will be great for some spots but less so for others. Enough said.

philosurphizingkerching's picture
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philosurphizing... Friday, 6 May 2022 at 8:07am

Looks like the 'ten thousand landslips' on the Northern Rivers are going to become 'ten thousand bigger landslips'.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-06/bom-qld-weather-storms-rain-forec...

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 6 May 2022 at 8:56am

Quite intimidating looking at the upcoming synoptic set-up for next week.
Hope it turns out relatively benign.

Catchments still saturated and rivers still relatively high here.

There is no slack in the system to absorb another rainfall event.

mugofsunshine's picture
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mugofsunshine Friday, 6 May 2022 at 9:50am

Some of these articles need trigger warnings.

"I tried to correlate the strength of the back to back Nina's with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation but the data I used (ONI index) tracked the IPO almost identically. There are differences, but I was looking for a more convincing overriding IPO signal forcing stronger Nina/Nino's"

I was suddenly back at Uni 30yrs ago having panic attacks about why some rivers choose to braid and others meander and spearman's rank and chi squared tests and whether to hit on Emma who was way out of my league (you can probably tell I never did, damn it).

Reinforces why I became a painter and now work at the airport

But thank you still

In hard times my sub is never on the table

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 4:57pm

Haha. Gold.

mugofsunshine's picture
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mugofsunshine Friday, 6 May 2022 at 9:55am

Steve, it's scant compensation for the current misery so many people are facing but so close to an election surely it can only reinforce the need for climate action even to the true blue boomers who are seeing their (negatively geared) margins being reduced by clean-ups and increased insurance

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups Friday, 6 May 2022 at 12:20pm

Love your work Craig.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 4:58pm

Thanks Spuddups.

Matb's picture
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Matb Friday, 6 May 2022 at 2:16pm

Love these articles Craig cheers mate !
Was it a negative IOD that broke the drought a couple of years ago ?

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 6 May 2022 at 2:21pm

Thanks Mat, yep!

seahound's picture
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seahound Friday, 6 May 2022 at 5:00pm

Really good analysis and descriptions, thanks Craig for the informative education. Keep it coming. Will the Challenger comp at Snapper be cancelled with the heavy rain forecast?

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Friday, 6 May 2022 at 10:23pm

Brilliant as usual Craig...whole crew luv yer work!

Qld Premier issued severe weather warning (Significant Event)
Starts now, already had heavy downpours & thru this weekend is a worry!
Continues with 200mm falling by next Thursday.

BOM Qld floodwatch by Sunday-Monday
Northern NSW might be spared the worst of it but will likely be on Flood watch.
Other areas will exceed 300-400mm their highest on record for May.
10x May rainfalls > Dam releases underway!

Difference being a more encompassing Rain Event as to a slow moving Bomb.

Also reckon it will be real wet for 3 months ahead as you say...

Enough to know the same areas are under flood watch again...there is no escaping it!
Here we go again...Heavy record rain is no longer news worthy! Just the way of the world!
10 months of rain in a few days...Groundhog day! All say Aye!

Qldurr! Qldurr! Qldubb blub blub.....blub xxxx!

Mazbo's picture
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Mazbo Saturday, 7 May 2022 at 9:34am

Great article. Confirmed a few things I have been wondering about as a layman watching patterns over the last few decades and comparing to what we used to experience in the 70’s when we relied on the weather map in local paper. As a side issue, not your usual area, but what do you think the impact these current patterns will have on the coming snow season in the alps? More precipitation but warmer conditions?

Standingleft's picture
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Standingleft Saturday, 7 May 2022 at 10:17am

Thanks Craig, always fascinating.
Dual pronged moisture assault on Oz?
Are you forecasting an inland sea?

lindo's picture
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lindo Saturday, 7 May 2022 at 10:21am

Interesting indeed, just wondering what effect the increased atmospheric and ocean heat is having on all this, given the political talk of 1 in 100 year, 1 in 1000 year, unprecedented events and climatological insights re warmer atmosphere holding more moisture. Appreciate any additional info. Thanks.

Also, back in 1997 the IOD caused anomalous upwelling, low sea surface temperatures, and low sea surface heights along the north-eastern Indian Ocean (Abram et al. 2004, van Woesik 2004).

“Along with regional upwelling, which led to nutrient enrichment and phytoplankton blooms off the coast of Bali, there was also evidence of macroalgal blooms on the Balinese reefs. … Coral mortality was a consequence of direct physical smothering by these macroalgae. Acropora and pocilloporid corals were particularly vulnerable. These corals are among the most ubiquitous, but are also the most susceptible corals in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and are usually first to respond to any form of perturbation … the anomalously low sea levels associated with the IOD caused direct and prolonged aerial exposure, which lead to considerable coral mortality. … the IOD-related upwelling, independent of the wildfires, caused significant coral mortality that may have extended for at least 4000 km...” (van Woesik 2004). Corals have not recovered from that perturbation in many places, in Indonesia and elsewhere, and the blows keep coming. The precise eastern extent of the influence of the 1997 IOD is not known, at least not by me, although the exceptionally high Chlorophyll A concentrations of September 1997 did not appear to extend eastwards beyond Bali.

Abram N.J., M.K. Gagan, M.T. McCulloch, J. Chappell and W.S. Hantoro, 2003. Coral reef death during the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole linked to Indonesian wildfires. Science 301: 952.
van Woesik, R. 2004. Comment on “Coral Reef Death During the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole Linked to Indonesian Wildfires”. Science 303: 1297.

mike.logan's picture
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mike.logan Saturday, 7 May 2022 at 11:10am

You can have this info (weather rainfall)sent to you each week from the BOM. Weekly and Seasonal predictions - mainly from a rainfall point but I believe it ties in with swell and surf on East Coast of Australia. ENSO, IOD, SAM and MJO.

Yes and the greens/???? think if we burn some coal etc the world's climate is going to stuff up/change. CLIMATE CHANGE - what a missed used word. TEMPERATURE VARIATION is what it is.

When my climate changes from sub-tropical to temperate or tropical come tell me.

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AlfredWallace Saturday, 7 May 2022 at 8:04pm

Well Mike.Logan. You better rid yourself of the burden of subscribing to SwellNet and go gather the free info from the BOM then. With the money saved,, you’ll be able to purchase a potato sack full of briquettes ( that’s how you heated your HWS back in the 70’s ) and keep polluting the world., because I’m old enough to remember the stench and pollution of my suburb choking as everyone chugged away on those little black things. Another person denying scientific data when it’s out right in front you. It’s your view, but I doubt it’s the view of many on this forum. Fair dinkum.

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mike.logan Saturday, 7 May 2022 at 9:35pm

1. I don't pay for Swellnet. 2. We used wood not briquettes for stove and HWS - and I'm old enough to remember back to the 1950's and 1960's sport. Another person lead along by all the brainwashing that goes on. Scientists can't even agree on how many climate zones we have. in the world. Yep have your opinion and I will have mine.

Serious point sport - what causes the enso, iod, sam, mjo etc to vary and change all the time. What makes the winds blow stronger accross the pacific from South America some years and not others. What causes the changing of warming or cooling of the waters in the oceans. Is it temperature variation or the sun, moon or even the solar system effects as some dear lady once told me.

philosurphizingkerching's picture
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philosurphizing... Sunday, 8 May 2022 at 8:53am

Meanwhile in the Amazon

Indo70's picture
Indo70's picture
Indo70 Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 7:39am

is it a coincidence that this little forest looks like a set of lungs ? Or am I missing a subtle message ~

AlfredWallace's picture
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AlfredWallace Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 7:53am

Indo70. Hey, I thought the same thing. Didn’t comment because I didn’t want to I feel like a tool for asking. Is it photoshopped ? Someone will tell us.
Anyways it portrays a strong message.

philosurphizingkerching's picture
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philosurphizing... Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 3:33pm

Indo 70 No coincidence.
AW. Yes it is photoshopped but as you say it is a powerful image, especially when you consider that the Amazon isn't even a National Park, being the lungs of the earth it should be an 'International Park'.
Here is what comes up on Google when I type in 'How significant is the Amazon Rainforest to the planets weather'.
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=how+significant+is+the+amazon+rainfor...

AlfredWallace's picture
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AlfredWallace Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 4:26pm

Philosurphizing. Great work with those links. It should be a National Park.
You, I, we, all know of its significance to Brazil and the other countries within its vicinity. Despite all the knowledge we have and the prominent exposure it receives nationally and globally, the Brazilian Government still mows it down at a rate of knots, just for a few bucks.
Yesterday i read, that here in Victoria, annually we clear more natural vegetation systems than any other Australian state, which surprised and disappointed me. What the hell is wrong with us human beings? We know its wrong yet we keep on doing it nationally and globally. There’s something not quite right with us humans. I’m very fed up with this attitude and nonsensical behaviour. Pisses me write off.

tyler.marshall's picture
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tyler.marshall Saturday, 7 May 2022 at 11:57am

So does this lighter than normal trades, will this extend into august?

Lanky Dean's picture
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Lanky Dean Sunday, 8 May 2022 at 12:28am

"2019 was one of the strongest positive IOD events in the last two decades and it wrecked havoc across the Mentawais, limiting surfing options to more protected spots out of the wind."
take note.

batfink's picture
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batfink Sunday, 8 May 2022 at 7:56am

Cool Craig. Have had a 30+ year interest in weather and systems and natural variations/anomalies. Would probably be on par with a first year, first semester undergrad now, but have a strong overall understanding of factors influencing weather compared to the average mug. All from reading these and other articles.

And was recently able to impress the family gathering with talk of infragravity waves. Too easy.

AlfredWallace's picture
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AlfredWallace Sunday, 8 May 2022 at 8:38am

Mike.Logan. All valid points, you’d be aware that oceanic water currents drive the entire planet, the constant translocation of warm and cold water. In turn, produces climatic conditions on all continents that then produce its relevant biota, i,e flora, fauna, forests, grasslands invertebrates and so on.
All are meteorologically driven.
You denied climate change in your last quote and for someone who sounds relevantly intelligent I find that hard to fathom. If you bother, do a search on the commencement date of the ‘industrial revolution’ and then search data for atmospheric CO2 emissions from that point on, you will see the graphs run parallel to each other, heading, never changing in an ascending line upwards. I want my son’s kids and their kids and so on to be left a world in which they benefit from all things biologically amazing that we enjoy today and for us as a society not be to be so selfish by just thinking about the present. Good banter either way.

mike.logan's picture
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mike.logan Sunday, 8 May 2022 at 11:28am

Saw a show where they drilled 1klm into the northern ice cap (Greenland I think). It showed 10000 yrs ago the temps were 2-4 (I think 2) degrees warmer then than now. So we are coming off the lowest temps - in reference to earth will warm 1.5-2 degree over the next XXX yrs. Humans have an effect on the world's temperatures but I believe the sun moon etc play as big or bigger part.

Another point if the Gulf Stream raised (I think rise rather than lower) by 4 degrees 3/4 of Europe would go under ice/snow.

Here is one for you - were I live around Bundaberg Qld the biggest tides in Feb each year have increased - the 1980/90's in the 3.40-3.50m range. 2000/2010's 3.50-3.60m and in 2021 the biggest was 3.65m. Then this year it drops down to 3.47m. Was the increase due to climate change and the drop due to the distance of the moon to the earth.

The biggest problem on this plant is not climate change - it is THE POPULATION. REDUCE THE POPULATION. And another one reduce the waste on this plant.

REDUCE REPAIR RECYCLE REUSE - that is what I live by. Cheers

AlfredWallace's picture
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AlfredWallace Sunday, 8 May 2022 at 5:01pm

Mike.Logan. I totally agree with you, interesting stuff you write. I’m married to a Scandinavian and we often discuss climate in both our respective countries. If it wasn’t for the Gulf Stream spiralling out of the Gulf of Mexico and making its way a across the Atlantic in a NE direction, places like, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, England, Denmark, Norway, Sweden etc. would be way more frigid than they already are in their Winter months. Converse to that, the Summer water temperature in Sweden at my wife’s former coastal town is 1 degree warmer (21.5c ) than the Summer maximum here on the Surf Coast (20.5c) in southern Victoria, most people wouldn’t believe that. It highlights again the impact of oceanic currents and there capacity to move heat from one place to the other. All of the aforementioned syndromes you highlighted have always existed, I agree with you on that, only thing is we never had names or acronyms for them i.e MJO, SSW, IOD, ENSO ,The Walker circulation etc. in the past. Last years episodic east coast rain/flooding and the previous bushfires to NSW were not a result of global warming, moreover, merely the result of very warm water piling up against the Eastern seaboard (as you clearly state, a result of actions in the Pacific)and the release of latent heat and in turn very poor management of our forests by governments who continue to ignore the way the original inhabitants of Australia use to manage vegetation. Our global population is expanding at a rate that’s on a trajectory toward disaster. In the early nineties I was involved in some work where the discussion was the Australian continent and it’s ability to carry a population. The result at the time was Australia with its population, industry and everything else going on, could carry 12million people, no more. If that figure was exceeded, all things in the biological world,soil, natural resources, ( I don’t mean mining) ,water etc. would be going backwards at a fast rate, which is very evident today. We’ve doubled that number and it’s negative results are clearly evident. You nailed it with your last statements, there is way too many people on the planet, including Australia, we are polluting everything we come into contact with, wherever I travel here in OZ, I see polluted waterways with exotic fish, weed infested areas every time I stop the car, exotic terrestrial animals, rodents, vermin, the list goes on. Fast rates of extinction, 24 species in the last 50 years, plants and animals etc. We should be disgusted with ourselves and hold our heads in shame. Governments need to construct mega recycling centres in major and large regional towns, what waste is left to be disposed free of charge to cease this dumping of shit down country roads and waterways, in build the cost into our taxes. Good to chat with you Mike.

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southey Wednesday, 18 May 2022 at 8:47pm

@mike . North of Noosa . hey ..... Say no more !

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Standingleft Sunday, 8 May 2022 at 9:11pm

Congrats gents, that's the most adult convo ever in the comments section.
I have to ask though, what about the greenhouse effect? Bunkum?
It's what science and observers say is happening, poles and glaciers are melting. That would cause the rise of our high tides you're astutely observing. Not sure why they'd then go backwards but it is an average and the trend your showing is clearly upward exactly like they're saying, like there is more water in the ocean?

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AlfredWallace Monday, 9 May 2022 at 9:18am

StandingLeft. Firstly., I agree with all that Lindo has posted and it was remiss of me to not mention the affects of Milankovitch orbital cycles, a term not many people would know, but it has way more influence on our climate than we realise.
The greenhouse affect is alive and well, it’s not bunkum, whether it’s now under human and industrial times or at a time in the past when there were no humans. Whilst there were photosynthetic organisms such as simple cells akin to bacteria (like cyanobacteria), mosses, liverworts, ferns and their allies, gymnosperms (non flowering plants) and angiosperms (todays flowering plants) of which all still exist today, the planet has always had a ‘greenhouse’ affect. Plants liberate O2 molecules during the day (as a result of photosynthesis) and in turn release CO2 at night into the atmosphere and the plants then absorb the carbon and the whole catalytic affect recurs, day after day after day, you get the picture. The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the more photosynthetic organisms proliferate. If a global population keeps increasing external inputs from the way we live and industrialise everything the system becomes out of balance and these gases stockpile themselves up against the Ozone layer and slowly degrade it because much of our gaseous pollution contains refrigerants that degrade O3 molecules, the very genesis of Ozone, basically by the way we live. Ultimately, polar ice caps melt, sea levels rise, planet gets hotter and we totally destroy the earth as we know it, but ultimately, some organisms always find a way and the rebuild will start all over again until something turns the big glowing heater/light off. As Lindo commented yesterday, all of those cycles and systems he/she mentioned have always been with us, we just didn’t have names for them or a basic way to explain to the general populace.
Planet Earth was doing fine without us, everything operating in a checks and balances kind of way. Of course there were catastrophic events, volcanism, mass extinctions etc, the planet recovers and find its way again.
I believe we are heading for another mass extinction of species, not all but most, but this time as Mike.Logan stated in his earlier comments it’s POPULATION that’s contributing to global warming. So in essence, in my own humble opinion, IT’S HUMAN INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING

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Standingleft Monday, 9 May 2022 at 10:55am

Thx Alfie, you sent me on a deep dive into NASAs explanation of Milankovitch which is new to me, it's great science and I'm fascinated to find out about it. But then in Capitols another NASA article "Why Milankovitch Cycles Can’t Explain Earth’s Current Warming" with its conclusion ..
- 'Finally, Earth is currently in an interglacial period (a period of milder climate between Ice Ages). If there were no human influences on climate, scientists say Earth’s current orbital positions within the Milankovitch cycles predict our planet should be cooling, not warming, continuing a long-term cooling trend that began 6,000 years ago'.
Overpopulation, it's a huge problem. Agreed. Not sure how we're going to fix that but can we start work on our carbon footprint in the meantime?

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AlfredWallace Monday, 9 May 2022 at 11:38am

StandingLeft. Imagine the beauty of Australia at the last ice age, water locked up, continental shelf way further out than today (under that regime it was referred to as Sahul) I wonder what breaks were pumping, only our first inhabitants could answer that question. Geologically speaking, because our current plate tectonics are still the same as the aforementioned period (recent ice age) (Papua New Guinea is joined to Australia and the mainland to Tassie ) can you imagine a metaphoric stroll from say Port Moresby to Hobart at a leisurely pace, imagine the intrinsic beauty and awe of all things biological as you stop to smell the ‘roses’ or should I say Boronias. An unspoilt land without the shit we produce today. I personally feel ripped off, I would have loved to have seen Australia roughly 250-300 years ago. Aboriginal people were farming, yes farming, not roaming ‘Willy Nelly’ like some folk think, they had it all under control in a sustainable manner.
We need to think on every level on a daily basis of every activity we do.
A stark reminder, next time any of us makes, breakfast, lunch or dinner, just look around and see how much packaging we’ve produced and most of it is plastic. All this manufacturing has carbon output. Food for thought.

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lindo Monday, 9 May 2022 at 7:46am

Esteemed surfing colleagues, here's a v. brief potted history - as many will be aware the greenhouse effect has been known about for nearly two centuries, first documented experimentally, as far as I am aware, by Eunice Foote, who scooped John Tindall (he gets most of the credit though). These good folk demonstrated causation, not correlation, between concentration of CO2 gas and air warming. That has been shown many times since. Svante Arrhenius did the math on global effects back in the early 1900s, estimating that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase air temperatures globally by up to 6 degrees C. At the time CO2 concentration was around 300 ppm, having risen from the pre-industrial high point of 280 ppm. His estimates (no computer models) appear remarkably prescient. For the previous 800,000 years or more, it had fluctuated, like an 'earth pulse' between a low point of approx. 180 and high of 300 ppm. Now we're at well over 400 ppm. The main problem has been the premeditated dissembling and disinformation campaigns of the fossil fuel lobby and their helpers in media and politics. That continues apace, as we have wasted decades 'debating' the issue. (where's Lord Monkton when we really need him?). The oceans have absorbed the great bulk of heat generated so far. For our beloved coral reefs, none of this is good news of course, with high temperature 'marine heat waves' causing bleaching and widespread coral death. At the same time, all the CO2 that is dissolving into the ocean is changing its chemistry - less alkaline ('ocean acidification - documented instrumentally) with potentially severe consequences for corals and indeed ocean food webs more generally. It is unlikely that may reefs will be able to 'keep up' with predicted sea level rise, which will have increasingly significant impacts in the decades - centuries ahead. There's one potential silver lining for wave hounds. In Indonesia geotectonic movement can play a huge role is water depth over reefs, as was obvious with the earthquakes that raised the Lagundri reef a metre or two. I was fortunate to ride 8-10' surf on that reef back in April of 1978 and again a few years later on, when it was a more almond shaped barrel than the lurching slab it is now. Of course, reefs can also subside, which would add to sea level rise in changing wave form. Other obvious effects are coastal inundation and plumes of muddy water smothering the reefs. None of these are good outcomes of course. There are many other causes of climate change - Milankovitch orbital cycles being a major player on much longer time scales than our present concern. Volcanics is another. These have been carefully examined by climate scientists and placed in context with the greenhouse effect. Fondling coal is no longer a good look, neither is setting up massive new fossil gas production and export, but mining communities need support, not vilification.

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Mr.Tee on a lon... Monday, 9 May 2022 at 8:57am

mmm interesting ....

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StormyAndBo Monday, 9 May 2022 at 11:48am

@craig, do you have the link for the lwt forecasts? cant seem to find it....

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ruckus Monday, 9 May 2022 at 12:06pm

Solid conversation ladies & gents. Probably the most solid yet. Plenty of food for thought with none of this grandiose virtue signalling BS. Just very solid conversation. Thank you all for all your input

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AlfredWallace Monday, 9 May 2022 at 7:46pm

Ruckus. Thanks, It’s a great conversation being had by all, big thanks to Swellnet for always uploading interesting and thought provoking data that gets tongues wagging and when you think about it for $8.95 or whatever your subscription is, what an education we get provided by guys who are fully committed to what they do, it’s very refreshing in this day and age to see that level of commitment to what they are doing. I love watching their business expand and develop incrementally. Ultimately and indirectly, us surfers or ocean users are the beneficiaries of their efforts. I could talk or write underwater with a mouth full of peanuts about this type of content, day in day out.

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freesurfer1977 Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 7:48pm

We've all been conditioned to accept little to no change in the management and care for the earth. If only we could put just a fraction in as much as we do to war and government f up's and put it towards caring for mother earth.
Really,not long ago one couldn't swim at the beach unless it was dark. Then ,not long after that, if one was to be a surfer,you had to wear a dress... Our future is in the hands of fools.. call this a rant but I've barely started. I whole heartedly think alot more could be done...

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AlfredWallace Tuesday, 17 May 2022 at 6:32pm

Freesurfer1977. I feel your pain mate, ridiculously frustrating living in this country a lot of the time. A reminder to all voters for the upcoming election.
Both Labour and Liberal/Nationals have both agreed to approve new gas and coal operations in Australia if elected. This archaic approach to energy supply MUST cease now!!

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dawnperiscope Sunday, 15 May 2022 at 10:32pm

The SST anomalies around the South America / eastern pac showing colder water doesn't seem to have changed since Craig's flag some 6 months ago. The SOI is super high.. I wonder if something is broken in the cycle and not allowing it to return to neutral. Very alarmist perspective but it certainly feels that way. I flicked thru the long paddock's historical SOI data and couldn't see anything similar (although there's a lot there and I could have easily missed something!)
Could the Antarctic melt be upwelling off the coast of South America and neutralizing the kelvin waves?
Super interesting to follow the data and your expert interpretation, but a bit concerning as well!

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Standingleft Tuesday, 17 May 2022 at 4:28pm

That's a big question you asked there DP, was following this with interest hoping someone might explain but article quickly, mysteriously perhaps, dropped out of the news with a doomsday scenario (?) left hanging

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AlfredWallace Tuesday, 17 May 2022 at 6:26pm

Standingleft. Hi mate. I’m on the case, will report in when i gather all the relevant data/info. Getting a wave ? Great waves on our coast today.

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Standingleft Tuesday, 17 May 2022 at 7:37pm

Excellent to hear thanks I'll stay tuned.
Job today but cleared a window mid morning tomorrow, just trying to read the charts and pick a spot.

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thermalben Friday, 20 May 2022 at 4:05pm

Lots of interesting features on the current SST anomaly chart.

As per Ben Domensino's post today, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole signal is now more distinct. As a result, SSTs in the Maldives look to be a couple of degrees cooler than normal, whilst Indo is a couple of degrees warmer, in fact there's a small patch near G'Land that is pushing close to three degrees positive. Will be interesting to see if this is discussed during the WSL event.

The Tasman Sea is still very warm, up to 3+ degrees across Southern NSW. Looks like a good winter to be travelling to NZ's West Coast with these warmer than normal water temps!

Strong negative anomalies across Southern California.

Negative SST anomalies have weakened ever so slightly across the Pacific but it's still a strong La Nina pattern.

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freeride76 Friday, 20 May 2022 at 4:23pm

Doesn't look to be any sign of breakdown on that chart.

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dawnperiscope Saturday, 21 May 2022 at 9:50am

The waters off Peru have changed a fair bit in the last 2 weeks. They were deep purple, somewhere in the -5 range on May 3rd. So that's hopefully a good sign.
However the actual temps around Tahiti haven't changed much so I think it might be that the baseline average is starting to drop as we head to winter that is reducing the anomaly.