COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

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Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 11:22am

Hey Blindboy, how does a “non-reputable” journal become “reputable” or are they stuck there forever?

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san Guine Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 11:28am

"...but as Shepherds of the flock of the Lord we have the duty to denounce the horrible crime that is being carried out, whose goal is to create billions of chronically ill people and to exterminate millions and millions of people, based on the infernal ideology of the “Great Reset” formulated by the President of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab and endorsed by institutions and organizations around the world.”

Not much hyperbole there then, from an Archbishop who is an expert in... stirring the pot:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlo_Maria_Viganò

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 11:30am

Tyler, they publish papers based on their merit without bias, and which are found to be accurate over a long period. The problem for a lot of the sources quoted here is the first point. They publish papers based on their support for the publisher's ideological views and are often funded by "foundations" channeling money from industries likely to benefit from the misinformation and obfuscation they are attempting to spread.

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tylerdurden Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 11:54am

Ok, so what your saying is that a “non-reputable” journal IS stuck there forever....unless they slowly start to publish better quality articles then over time build their reputation. But how do they get started?!

I’ve got a different approach: I look at the quality of the paper, assess its strengths and weaknesses on merit and then make a judgement. Don’t care at all which journal it’s published in. But that’s just me.

Remember this?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/covid-19-lancet-retracts-p...

That fraudulent HCQ trial published in the Lancet put the brakes on a lot of subsequent trials. In fact, wasn’t particularly publicised much at the time but the mud has certainly stuck to HCQ.
Can happen to the best of em

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Hutchy 19 Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 11:49am

Blind one - you are in Great form .

The major journals are the target of Big Business due to their perceived credibility . Big Business 101 and they have perfected the art . Oil , Medicine , Banks and Governments - All of them .

You confirm this by saying -"They publish papers based on their support for the publisher's ideological views and are often funded by "foundations" channeling money from industries likely to benefit from the misinformation and obfuscation they are attempting to spread."

The biggest foundation is probably the Gates Foundation . What would he stand to gain from having positive papers on vaccines and negative papers on alternatives ? Billions !!!!!!

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vladalotovodka Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 12:36pm

Much power own big journal of west news or west science. Buy stock is before publish big story or article. Sell stock after publish big profit.

Murdoch not care Australian paper make always loss.

Publish news same as time travel to past. See news of future before print make easy is predict of market.

Story also much support leader and is policy help make business money.

Pravda expert propaganda but much envy west news is of much more many expert.

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 12:35pm

More nonsense from the great know-nothing.

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vladalotovodka Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 12:54pm

Vlad the Great or is of comrade Hutchy?

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 1:37pm

"The biggest foundation is probably the Gates Foundation . "
Burn him at the stake you reckon Hutchy?

"“There are many parallels between COVID conspiracies around Bill Gates and theories about witches in the past. Both emerge in contexts of uncertainty as people confront inexplicable misfortune. Both attribute that misfortune to powerful, malicious figures who work through invisible means. Both demonise those powerful figures, which entails making them morally heinous (e.g., child kidnapping or cannibalism), making them existentially threatening, and enhancing perceptions of their power and influence,” said Manvir Singh, research fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, France..........For example, similar to how people used to believe witches would misuse items like brooms to fly and wands to cast spells, some modern Americans think Gates uses vaccines to implant microchips and activates the chips with 5G."

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bill-gates-as-witch-how-covid...

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tylerdurden Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 1:39pm

Nice side step Blindboy, by your rationale low quality journals are indeed stuck there forever, thanks for confirming that.
Nearly got a second retraction in the same numbers of weeks from you!

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 1:47pm

I didn't say that. I gave a clear path for journals to achieve credibility, but yes those who fail to achieve acceptable standards will continue to be disregarded.

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gsco Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 2:42pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

The biggest foundation is probably the Gates Foundation . What would he stand to gain from having positive papers on vaccines and negative papers on alternatives ? Billions !!!!!!

The Gates foundation has apparently made an unfathomable amount of money from covid. It was reported to have invested pre-IPO in BioNTech, the developer of the Pfizer covid vaccine, in September 2019...but covid appeared only a few months later...coincidence...?:

https://techstartups.com/2021/04/30/bill-gates-turned-55-million-investm...

techstartups.com wrote:

Bill Gates turned his $55 million vaccine investment in Pfizer’s partner, BioNTech, into over $550 million in just under two years

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2019, Moderna and BioNtech had never produced or launched a single product.

In September of 2019, Bill Gates initially invested $55 million on a pre-IPO equity investment into BioNtech. Gates’s investment in BioNtech may probably higher. Today, Gates’ investment is now worth over $550 million dollars, based on the company’s market cap at the time of writing.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/24/4-coronavirus-vaccine-stocks-t...

fool.com wrote:

The Gates Foundation first bought a position in BioNTech in September 2019, well before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. It invested $55 million in the biotech, with the potential for total funding to reach $100 million.

Also see https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190904005403/en/


Only a 2,000% return on the investment so far...

- https://www.businessinsider.com.au/curevac-stock-price-since-ipo-bill-ga...
- https://vervetimes.com/bill-gates-and-the-vaccine-heist/
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/17/heres-the-company-that-bill-ga...
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-says-astrazeneca-johnson-07441...

And what is the Gates Foundation's relationship with the media...?

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tylerdurden Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 2:46pm

Blindboy the clear path has to at least start with each article being taken on its merits, not simply dismissed because it’s in a “low quality” journal.
A bit like my strategy: take every article on its merits, don’t even worry which journal it’s in

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 2:50pm

The Gates Foundation is a non-profit organisation so what exactly is your point gsco? If it is that the Gates Foundation is involved in some vast conspiracy you will have to do better than highlighting a sound investment from which we all stood to benefit. Then there is the work they have done on malaria. Is reducing malaria part of some vast scheme to rule the world and enslave us all? Excuse me if I have misrepresented your position. If so you might like to explain what it actually is.

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 2:53pm

"A bit like my strategy: take every article on its merits, don’t even worry which journal it’s in"

Fair enough. I look at a lot of stuff from second rate journals and dodgy foundations that gets posted here. Just be careful of including confirmation bias in your assessment of merit.

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tylerdurden Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 3:29pm

Thanks for the tip BB, same back at ya

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 3:34pm

Try and catch me out tyler! Fact checks are always acceptable.

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Hutchy 19 Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 4:52pm

Blind one . "The Gates Foundation is a non-profit organisation so what exactly is your point gsco?"

You really are unable to understand how the REAL world works .

Firstly , it is a non-for - profit organisation due to tax benefits . Gates donations into the Foundation are a tax deduction . He then pays NO tax from capital gains when he sells Microsoft shares or any income he earns . The Foundation then pays fuck all tax ( capital gains and income ) due to its status .

Secondly , it is the power that this huge Foundation yields that is the most important point. It doesn't matter if it is not for profit or it pays full tax at 21% . It is how much MONEY it has to incentivise others to do its bidding .

You are so thick that you can't see gsco's point !!!!!

It might surprise you but half a billion US dollars capital gain buys a LOT of clout in the real world . His multi billions in the Foundation buys a hell of a lot more .

Please wake up !

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blindboy Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 4:58pm

Idiot.

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gsco Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 6:30pm

Just stating facts BB.

But to be honest I don’t know what to believe anymore.

Before you came back on Swellnet I was a staunch opponent of any hint whatsoever of anything at all that even vaguely resembled a conspiracy theory. I even got vaccinated the very first day my age group could.

But now I’m just totally disillusioned about it all and am not so sure. (Not because of you that is, just timeline-wise.)

On the bright side hopefully covid is beginning to be in the rear view mirror now.

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 6:36pm
gsco wrote:
Hutchy 19 wrote:

The biggest foundation is probably the Gates Foundation . What would he stand to gain from having positive papers on vaccines and negative papers on alternatives ? Billions !!!!!!

The Gates foundation has apparently made an unfathomable amount of money from covid. It was reported to have invested pre-IPO in BioNTech, the developer of the Pfizer covid vaccine, in September 2019...but covid appeared only a few months later...coincidence...?:

https://techstartups.com/2021/04/30/bill-gates-turned-55-million-investm...

techstartups.com wrote:

Bill Gates turned his $55 million vaccine investment in Pfizer’s partner, BioNTech, into over $550 million in just under two years

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2019, Moderna and BioNtech had never produced or launched a single product.

In September of 2019, Bill Gates initially invested $55 million on a pre-IPO equity investment into BioNtech. Gates’s investment in BioNtech may probably higher. Today, Gates’ investment is now worth over $550 million dollars, based on the company’s market cap at the time of writing.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/24/4-coronavirus-vaccine-stocks-t...

fool.com wrote:

The Gates Foundation first bought a position in BioNTech in September 2019, well before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. It invested $55 million in the biotech, with the potential for total funding to reach $100 million.

Also see https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190904005403/en/


Only a 2,000% return on the investment so far...

- https://www.businessinsider.com.au/curevac-stock-price-since-ipo-bill-ga...
- https://vervetimes.com/bill-gates-and-the-vaccine-heist/
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/17/heres-the-company-that-bill-ga...
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-says-astrazeneca-johnson-07441...

And what is the Gates Foundation's relationship with the media...?

Im a fan of Gates, but a bit of an eye opener.

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san Guine Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 6:44pm

Hot news: Gates is a capitalist.
Anyone on here punting on cryptocurrencies?

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gragagan Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 6:53pm

Same thing happened with the ebola outbreak a few years ago. According to the Financial Times, several months prior to the outbreak Gates bought up shares in the pharmaceutical company that was producing the ebola vaccine. Made him a handsome profit. Another interesting thing about ebola is that the US has a patent on it.

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san Guine Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 7:28pm
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vladalotovodka Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 7:37pm

West is know much of secret money magic of foundation.

Old Russia sport hero live in 1 bed room no heat eat cabbage and is feast on sausage on day of pension.

Not west in. Much big sport star all told set up foundation for happy retire.

Pay wife and baby and babushka in law big salary. No tax. Do ball of charity and shave of moustache day each year then long europe holiday recover is of hard work.

Money nothing for and sexy chickova for free (unless wife find out)

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freeride76 Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 7:31pm

No fan of Gates either, but hasn't he been involved with vaccine development and roll-out for decades?

In which case, you would expect him to have fingers in all those pies?

And there were 2 Corona Virus pandemics in the last 20 years: MERS and SARS, so planning for a novel Corona Virus Pandemic would be completely sensible, wouldn't it?

Isn't that why Taiwan was so successful? Because they had done so much preparation and war gaming after SARS?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971204001766

I don't see the Conspiracy or even Co-incidence in Gates being involved in these vaccine companies.

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gsco Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 8:03pm

Yes Gates has been in the vaccine space for a long time. Just absolutely unbelievable timing with BioNTech. A one-in-a-million investment.

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freeride76 Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 8:11pm

I guess you would have to look at the sum total of all his investments in vaccine/biotech to see how much of an unusual event it is.

If he has made hundreds of investments then you would expect one at least to be a windfall payout.

Especially if he has been doing it for decades.

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shortenism Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 8:13pm

I’m backing silver

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shortenism Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 8:14pm

No conspiracy, not even a coincidence!? Hahahahaha

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Supafreak Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 8:28pm
freeride76 wrote:

No fan of Gates either, but hasn't he been involved with vaccine development and roll-out for decades?

In which case, you would expect him to have fingers in all those pies?

And there were 2 Corona Virus pandemics in the last 20 years: MERS and SARS, so planning for a novel Corona Virus Pandemic would be completely sensible, wouldn't it?

Isn't that why Taiwan was so successful? Because they had done so much preparation and war gaming after SARS?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971204001766

I don't see the Conspiracy or even Co-incidence in Gates being involved in these vaccine companies.

I think turning 50 million into 500 million in a few years is actually small change to billy . Be interesting to see what happens with Musk’s offer off 6 billion to feed the poor . https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/01/elon-musk-tells-un-food-chief-hell-spend...

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freeride76 Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 8:34pm

with a net worth of 138 billion, 500 million is literally chump change.

Like I said, you would have to look at the breadth of his investments in biotech/vaccines over time to see how it all fits in.

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tylerdurden Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 9:05pm

Short memory BB, already caught you out last week when you made the retraction. Your explanation as to how a “non-reputable” journal claws its way out of the gutter and becomes a “reputable” was worthy of a retraction too but I’ll let it slide.
And watch that confirmation bias, it’s a killer

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Blowin Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 5:10am
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blindboy Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 7:16am

tyler that wasn't a retraction it was a clarification. What was it? Something like I went from "Ivermectin doesn't work" to " when it is all considered the evidence does not support the use of ivermection as a treatment for covid19".
THIS is a retraction.
https://retractionwatch.com/2021/11/02/ivermectin-covid-19-study-retract...

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 7:17am

Freeride - No one I know bets on one in a ten year event ."And there were 2 Corona Virus pandemics in the last 20 years: MERS and SARS, so planning for a novel Corona Virus Pandemic would be completely sensible, wouldn't it?"

This was only one of his investments in the vaccine producers . I have posted before that the Foundation even funded a vaccine factory ( maybe a nice thing to do ) . He has made multi billions from Covid and getting in VERY early .

Too early imo but he is much smarter and connected than I am so I doubt we will ever know .

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blindboy Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 7:36am

Wealthy bloke puts a huge amount of his fortune into a charitable foundation which has funded research on numerous diseases most notably malaria and what do we get? Nonsensical conspiracy theories about chip implants and vast conspiracies to enslave us all. Then there are the enablers, those who post snide insinuations that amount to nothing more than Gates is rich so he must be evil. Does Gates totally lack self-interest? Certainly not. Was he involved with Epstein's sleaze? Probably. Beyond that what have you got on him? Three fifths of the usual.

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shortenism Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 8:14am

It’s not about the money for Gates and his crew. The agenda is power, control and ultimately enslavement of humanity. Gates is the nerdy persona front man for the mob behind him.

So on that basis very hard to argue that this pandemic is not a major stepping stone in achieving it. Conspiracy? Co-incidence?

‘Just a 3 week lockdown to flatten the curve’ ??Turned into ‘can’t keep your job until you get 2 shots and the boosters’ real quick.. to ‘keep you safe’. Biggest con job in history and how well they’ve done it.

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 8:20am

BB- you are right that lots of billionaires set up Foundations to set up structures to avoid paying tax .

I thought you thought that was despicable .

Chip human implants are already available . I saw on SN a Scandinavian country had already started using them .

Gates never invested in a malaria vaccine .

He is TOTALLY concerned with his own self interest . Look at his record at Microsoft .

He is definitely a sleaze as shown by his involvement with Epstein and his treatment of female employees .

Most of these FACTS are why you hated Trump . A self interested , repeated women aduser ,sleazy tax dodger with too much money .

Why do you say "Three fifths of the usual " ?

Unbelievable that you view him as a nice wealthy bloke and say we should give him some slack .

Not the first time you have been unbelievable so I am not at all surprised .

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freeride76 Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 8:23am
shortenism wrote:

It’s not about the money for Gates and his crew. The agenda is power, control and ultimately enslavement of humanity. Gates is the nerdy persona front man for the mob behind him.

So on that basis very hard to argue that this pandemic is not a major stepping stone in achieving it. Conspiracy? Co-incidence?

‘Just a 3 week lockdown to flatten the curve’ ??Turned into ‘can’t keep your job until you get 2 shots and the boosters’ real quick.. to ‘keep you safe’. Biggest con job in history and how well they’ve done it.

Not having a go, but I thought the agenda was human population control and the vaccine was a bioweapon?

Who is the mob behind Gates Shorto?

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blindboy Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 8:30am

Ha ha, tell us when you get to the rabbits shorty, you're pretty deep into that hole.

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Alana_a Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 8:47am

Beyond me. Break it down for us

Blowin wrote:

Get yourself a translation of this little puppy.

https://www.iltempo.it/attualita/2021/10/21/news/rapporto-iss-morti-covi...

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shortenism Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:08am

3 weeks to flatten the curve
2 shots to keep your job
A ‘booster’ to keep your job
A ‘what’s ever is next’ to keep your job

The similar theme is creating fear about the future because that’s where fear lives. Regret is in the past and what’s in the present? The present. Look around u. Is there ppl dropping dead, anyone you know with COVID? Or is it all fine? Until of course as the story goes the borders will open and all hell will break loose.

Fellas you don’t have to be that deep to recognise this pattern surely?

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blindboy Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:22am

But shorty isn't your suggestion that Gates is planning to enslave us all equally based on fear? The fears around covid are real. Whatever else you think you have to acknowledge that large numbers have died. In your case though the fear you are generating is totally irrational as there is no evidence for it.

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shortenism Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:28am

Quote of the day: A recession is when your neighbour loses their job, a depression is when you lose your job and a recovery is when Dr Fauci loses his.

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thermalben Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:29am
shortenism wrote:

It’s not about the money for Gates and his crew. The agenda is power, control and ultimately enslavement of humanity. Gates is the nerdy persona front man for the mob behind him.

Who is 'the mob behind Gates'?

What do you mean by 'enslavement of humanity'?

They're a couple of very broad statements, with zero evidence to back 'em up.

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old-dog Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:38am

Special people like shorty shouldn't be encouraged or taken seriously, best to just pat them on the head and agree with them. Hopefully one day they will get back on the meds and feel very very silly.

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shortenism Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:41am

Yeah it’s a good point BB and there’s probably some aspect of this manifesting because enough ppl are thinking/fearing that scenario but there is a genuine reason they are because the plan is laid bare for all to see. Is there equally a genuine reason to fear COVID? That’s the thing. When you are all mighty and powerful with the purse strings you can manipulate / control the statistics and narrative whatever way you want. So it’s not about Gates making money for personal benefit it’s so they can distribute it in the channels they want to the ppl that give them what they want through fear and statistics..

And the ultimate I guess is to not fear the future for either scenario either gates or COVID. Come back to the moment and find peace there. It’s hard and the last thing the system wants.

I’ve heard getting barrelled is a great way to get back to the moment. More of that.

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Craig Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:46am
shortenism wrote:

And the ultimate I guess is to not fear the future for either scenario either gates or COVID. Come back to the moment and find peace there. It’s hard and the last thing the system wants.

End of discussion, live every day to its fullest and stop peddling that other crap. Let's all move on.

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shortenism Friday, 5 Nov 2021 at 9:53am

You trying to draw me into future fear Old-dog? ‘Feeling silly one day’? But your already on the meds aren’t u Old dog? You’ve had the jab? I haven’t. That’s your moment? Ya head is so far up your ass you don’t even know it. So no I won’t be on the meds and I won’t be feeling silly around you.