COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 2:47pm

The headline asks a question I would like to know the answer to .

Daily Mail

How did Florida end up with one of the best COVID-19 case and death rates in the US despite Gov Ron DeSantis refusing to implement mask or vaccine mandates?
During the peak of the recent COVID-19 surge in Florida, the state was recording 101 cases per 100,000 people and 1.77 new deaths per 100,000
Since mid-September, Florida has been seeing declines and is recording nine cases per 100,000 people and less than 0.2 deaths per 100,000
The declines are despite Governor Ron DeSantis insisting the state would not shut down and refusing to implement mask or vaccine mandates and instead focusing efforts on early treatment
Experts have suggested the declines seem to follow a familiar two-month cycle since the pandemic began with cases and deaths increasing for about two months before dropping
This has also been seen in other states that experienced surges over the summer such as Alabama, Louisiana and Texas

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 2:54pm

Focusing on early treatment, what’s that ? Aren’t we supposed to isolate and see how sick we get ? You know, go home and lock yourself in ya bedroom, wait until ya lips turn blue . Early treatment ? What idiot came up with that idea ? Only a vaccine can get us out of this pandemic, early treatment pfffft

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 4:49pm

Q: Are such studies justified and necessary?

A: That’s where scientists disagree. To put RBDs from some of the novel HKU4 viruses into MERS-CoV, already a lethal human pathogen, is “sort of crazy” and “unjustified,” says University of Montana, Missoula, virologist Jack Nunberg. https://www.science.org/content/article/was-nih-funded-work-mers-virus-c...

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 5:05pm

Selectively quoting a source to support your preferred view just weakens your argument. The full answer to the question is below. And yes, there is disagreement about the safety of thios work and its relative importance....that is a normal situation when the evidence is mixed.

" Q: Are such studies justified and necessary?

A: That’s where scientists disagree. To put RBDs from some of the novel HKU4 viruses into MERS-CoV, already a lethal human pathogen, is “sort of crazy” and “unjustified,” says University of Montana, Missoula, virologist Jack Nunberg.

Tulane University virologist Robert Garry has a more charitable take. “They are trying to determine if the HKU4 viruses have pathogenic potential,” or whether these viruses could jump to humans if they acquire certain mutations, he says. “That’s legitimate.” Another lab that has collaborated with WIV, Ralph Baric’s group at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, has done similar, albeit controversial chimeric virus studies with SARS-CoV, the virus that caused the global SARS outbreak of 2003. “I don’t think [this Wuhan work] is that different,” says virologist Stephen Goldstein, a postdoc at the University of Utah.

Another reason to modify MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV is to be able to infect mice with these viruses, which makes other types of studies possible, Goldstein notes. For example, Baric has developed a mouse model to test drugs and vaccines against viruses related to MERS-CoV.

Yet the EcoHealth studies may not have been necessary because Baric’s lab had already done studies with HKU4 “pseudoviruses,” which are designed to bind and enter cells but can’t replicate, Garry says. Virologist Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa says he’s not convinced the chimeric viruses tell scientists anything more about pathogenicity than pseudoviruses. “I think that this is not the best way to answer the question,” Perlman says.

But Daszak argues that the chimeric viruses added crucial information beyond infectivity. “Pseudoviruses will demonstrate capacity to bind cells, recombinant viruses allow measures of things like viral genome copy per gram–clues as to the potential importance of these viruses for public health,” he wrote in an email to ScienceInsider."

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 5:29pm

“Selectively quoting a source to support your preferred view just weakens your argument. “ that’s the type of response I expect from blindboy . Please tell me again how mankind has benefited from GOF research .

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 5:41pm

Thanks, I do my best to put up all the relevant material. I put a link on GOF up earlier. Read that.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 5:54pm
blindboy wrote:

Thanks, I do my best to put up all the relevant material. I put a link on GOF up earlier. Read that.

I read it before , all I could find was it had “ potential “ , doesn’t say anything about how mankind has benefited.

monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 5:57pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

The headline asks a question I would like to know the answer to .

Daily Mail

How did Florida end up with one of the best COVID-19 case and death rates in the US despite Gov Ron DeSantis refusing to implement mask or vaccine mandates?
During the peak of the recent COVID-19 surge in Florida, the state was recording 101 cases per 100,000 people and 1.77 new deaths per 100,000
Since mid-September, Florida has been seeing declines and is recording nine cases per 100,000 people and less than 0.2 deaths per 100,000
The declines are despite Governor Ron DeSantis insisting the state would not shut down and refusing to implement mask or vaccine mandates and instead focusing efforts on early treatment
Experts have suggested the declines seem to follow a familiar two-month cycle since the pandemic began with cases and deaths increasing for about two months before dropping
This has also been seen in other states that experienced surges over the summer such as Alabama, Louisiana and Texas

Sunshine !

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 28 Oct 2021 at 5:58pm

Good old Merck doing the best thing for poorer nations , very interesting comments section on this article. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/health/covid-pill-access-molnupiravir... Lets all hope it works and side effects are minimal.

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 9:40am

Monkey - I think you could be right . What about Israel ?

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 9:45am

This following broadcast is brought to you by ………. ???? https://m.

&feature=youtu.be

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 3:01pm

I guess the cynics might say that’s what happens when you ban GP’s from prescribing it

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 3:08pm

Matt Taibbi reporting on Merck new early treatment drug . Think this is a month old .

monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 3:48pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Monkey - I think you could be right . What about Israel ?

Unfortunately Israel seems to be dealing with another wave similar to Singapore. The only thing these two countries have in common is a high vaccination rate.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 7:25pm

Low cases in Qld after carriers did come in with covid was thought to be due to our weather and the heat. I can’t really comment on WA but have read that qld gets lucky due to sun and a high average temp.

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Friday, 29 Oct 2021 at 8:05pm

I read somewhere a while ago that UV rays kill the virus . Not sure if heat is a factor .

That is why I believe it is very unlikely to catch the virus when outside . TBB would know the figures on this I think .

Air cons and heaters can have uv rays installed I was also told but I have not checked that out . The same person said UV lights would not be healthy for our eyes .

Sorry I haven't checked this out and am only speculating .

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 7:49am

The CDC in the US has finally recognised that there is Natural Immunity ,

Ever since Israeli researchers found in that naturally acquired immunity from a previous COVID-19 infection is 13x more effective than Pfizer's vaccine at stopping the Delta variant in nearly 800,000 patients, US officials have been absolutely silent on the topic of natural immunity when it comes to making policy.

That all changed on Friday, when a group of CDC scientists - looking at just 7,000 adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19, concluded that vaccines provide stronger protection against hospitalization than natural immunity.

Hospitalized patients who weren’t vaccinated but had been previously infected with Covid were about five times more likely to test positive for the infection than people who had been vaccinated, according to the CDC study. The CDC has long recommended that people get vaccinated even if they have already had Covid-19. -Bloomberg

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 8:44am

Put up the link if you want to be taken seriously. Until then, here's one for the ivermectin warriors. These are the kind of results you look for in a drug trial.

“ The drug, called fluvoxamine, is taken for conditions including depression and obsessive–compulsive disorder. But it is also known to dampen immune responses and temper tissue damage, and researchers credit these properties for its success in the recent trial. Among study participants who took the drug as directed and did so in the early stages of the disease, COVID-19-related deaths fell by roughly 90% and the need for intensive COVID-19-related medical care fell by roughly 65%.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02988-4?utm_source=Nature+Bri...

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 9:03am

@blindboy , interesting that the FLCCC who actually treat patients have had fluvoxamine in their protocol for months now and were also the pioneers of using steroids in treating covid when every health organisation said they were mad . Every health organisation now recommends steroids depending on the stage of disease. FLCCC way ahead of the pack in treating patients successfully with their protocol , saving lives is what counts, patients before profits, something you struggle with .

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 9:13am

A search for fluvoxamine on their web site comes back with Optional and "recently added". Sounds like they were trying to add something into the mix that might actually work!

https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/medical-evidence-and-...

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 12:44pm
blindboy wrote:

A search for fluvoxamine on their web site comes back with Optional and "recently added". Sounds like they were trying to add something into the mix that might actually work!

https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/medical-evidence-and-...

As usual blindboy you only see what you want to see . Did you have trouble finding this ? I thought you were a researcher ? B4-AD60-B0-5-A48-4166-AAC8-46476-B8835-F3
pichost
. https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/math-plus-protocol/. It was added months ago like I said, before the together trial , keep up blindboy.

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 1:16pm

BB-Have a look at the end of the comment IF you want to know where the info came from Blind One .

It doesn't matter where comments come from as if you don't like them you still refuse to believe them .

I think the Age , SMH and fucken Nature are biased but am willing to believe some of their articles . Your top 3 sources .

If everyone asked you to link ALL your comments we would be here all day .

I might do it for a while instead of taking you at your word .

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 1:22pm

No trouble mate. It is dated the 18th of October 2021. So as I said, recently added, probably because they had the evidence from the trial I quoted that, unlike your fave, it is highly effective.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 1:37pm
blindboy wrote:

No trouble mate. It is dated the 18th of October 2021. So as I said, recently added, probably because they had the evidence from the trial I quoted that, unlike your fave, it is highly effective.

Wrong again , it was added in May /June

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 1:44pm

Not according to your link.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 2:04pm
blindboy wrote:

Not according to your link.

As I said you only see what you want to see . From your link The most compelling recent therapeutic evidence suggests a role for the following therapies (last updated on May 17, 2021): The FLCCC protocol changes as new evidence evolves, your looking at my link as this is the latest development of protocol. Back in May June is when it was added . Since then other things have been added so it’s usually a 2 monthly update. Here’s the September version https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FLCCC-Allianc...

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 2:18pm
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 2:30pm
blindboy wrote:

Not a reliable source.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_Line_COVID-19_Critical_Care_Alliance

Hahahaha your incredible , maybe you can do some “ resurch “ on Wikipedia , better you don’t though as you won’t like what you’ll find . Keep trying though champ.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 2:40pm

What was it six doctors and two journalists touting vitamin C cures and then latching onto the chance of a quick buck from the gullible when covid came along? Give me a break and come up with something even vaguely credible.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 2:41pm

The delusion continues, get well soon.

monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 2:53pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

I read somewhere a while ago that UV rays kill the virus . Not sure if heat is a factor .

That is why I believe it is very unlikely to catch the virus when outside . TBB would know the figures on this I think .

Air cons and heaters can have uv rays installed I was also told but I have not checked that out . The same person said UV lights would not be healthy for our eyes .

Sorry I haven't checked this out and am only speculating .

I have wondered about the logic of locking everyone inside. Growing up in the UK that was a sure fire way to make the entire family sick when the inevitable flu came around. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 3:04pm

"As time went by, we came to realise that the summary – “Covid-19 is like a very bad flu” – is basically wrong. The reason? Human influenza is a respiratory infection, with severe disease resulting when the virus gets deep into the lungs. We rarely find influenza virus in the blood of sick people. The respiratory tract can also be severely damaged by SARS-CoV-2, but what makes Covid-19 different from the flu is the fact the virus disseminates in the blood (viremia) to infect major organs such as the heart and kidneys."

by Peter Doherty

"Peter Doherty shared the 1996 Nobel Medicine Prize with Swiss colleague Rolf Zinkernagel, for their discoveries about transplantation and “killer” T cell-mediated immunity, an understanding that is currently translating into new cancer treatments. The first veterinarian to win a Nobel, he was Australian of the Year in 1997. Still active in research on immunity to influenza, he commutes between St Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis and the Peter Doherty Institute at the University of Melbourne, where he now spends most of his professional time. "

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2021/10/30/what-weve-learnt-about-co...

monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 3:58pm

Brilliant aricle Blindboy, thank you.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 4:03pm

Say no to vaccine passports petition

https://www.onenation.org.au/vaccine-passports

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 4:36pm

One Notion?

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 4:42pm

For the sake of democracy and lifting the intelligence level inside parliament massively lets all hope and pray she also refuses to get the jab ... something about evolution comes to mind

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 5:13pm
GuySmiley wrote:

For the sake of democracy and lifting the intelligence level inside parliament massively lets all hope and pray she also refuses to get the jab ... something about evolution comes to mind

Lets hope the same for UAP.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 5:14pm

Victoria's gained a little more freedom this week, but its not all roses, decent sized protest today .

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Saturday, 30 Oct 2021 at 6:18pm

Standing room only down the shallow end of the gene pool I’m guessing

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 8:55am

So according to the MATH+ protocol from the FLCCC the core meds for the treatment of hospitalised COVID 19 patients are:

1. Methylpred
2. Vitamin C
3. Vitamin B
4. Heparin

That's not adjunctive, that's core.

Compare with the NIH protocol:

1. Remdesivir
2. Dexamethasone
3. Baricitinib
+/- a monoclonal antibody

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/management/clinical-manag...

I know which treatment I 'd be wanting when I'm gasping for breath on minimal exertion (ie. just turning over in bed), tachypnoeic and tachycardic.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 10:20am

Sanguine, FLCCC have monoclonal antibodies as adjunct therapy in their early treatment protocol, not their hospital protocol.
The rest is not a whole lot different. That Dexamethasone dose should be 6mg, maybe 8mg.
Methyl pred at high doses is probably doing more. I’m guessing various institutions would use it if the Dex didn’t appear to be doing much. And you might be surprised, they might also be adding vitamin supplements as well, not unheard of in many types of ICU patients.
And the heparin is vital, so overall their protocols aren’t particularly radical.
Most of the other adjuvant (and even first line therapies) have some degree of evidence and are very safe

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 1:16pm

A US judge has just decided Biden can not sack (yet) workers or military personal for reusing to get vaxed on religious grounds .

Will the same precedent be made here ?

A Washington DC District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly has temporarily blocked Biden from firing unvaccinated Federal workers. The judge found that the order was unconstitutional as it has failed to acknowledge employees seeking religious exemptions. “None of the civilian employee plaintiffs will be subject to discipline while his or her request for a religious exception is pending,” Kollar-Kotelly declared. US military members may not be prosecuted for their sincerely held beliefs. “[A]ctive duty military plaintiffs, whose religious exception requests have been denied, will not be disciplined or separated during the pendency of their appeals,” the judge noted.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 5:40pm

Time for a bit of a review of the pandemic. Let's start with the Ruby Princess fiasco, an impressive opening display of the incompetence, carelessness and near perfect indifference to human suffering that has characterised our lovely neolib government's response.

So; The Ruby Princess.

A 2018 biosecurity report to the Commonwealth government highlighted the risks from arriving ships. Nothing was done
The officer inspecting the Ruby Princess did not follow protocols, did not interview sick passengers, was a junior official with little experience and had no training in carrying out such inspections.
The “Traveller With Illness Checklist” was not administered properly.
The ship’s master was not interviewed and its logs were not inspected.
Prior to arrival 104 passengers had reported to the ship’s clinic with acute respiratory illness.
It was later determined that 663 passengers had COVID 19.
There were at least 62 secondary or tertiary infections and at least 28 deaths.
An outbreak linked to the Ruby Princess caused 138 infections and 10 deaths in Tasmania.
David Littleproud, the Minister responsible for biosecurity, blamed NSW Health despite quarantine being a Federal government responsibility and officers from his department giving the passengers permission to leave and travel on without quarantine.

https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/assets/dpc-nsw-gov-au/publications/The-Specia...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-24/report-finds-federal-government-f...

After that it might be thought things would improve, but that would have involved the government giving a shit. More to follow.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 6:03pm

Stuff ups:

- Ruby Princess, but very early in the pandemic, resulted in about 28 deaths.

- BLM marches going ahead another stuff up, that coincidentally resulted in a huge spike in cases two weeks latter. (off course no responsibly was taken as would be a political mess for both state and federal leaders if they admitted protest were linked to infections)

- Dan Andrews quarantine stuff up, caused one of the biggest spikes in Australia and resulted in 800+ deaths. (and even an investigation never found who made the decision)

-Gladys not locking down fast enough (although Victoria still locked down and still saw a huge spike, so in hindsight it was pretty much irrelevant)

Overall:

Biggest fuck ups in the pandemic easily Victoria, absolutely useless so called leader, that is a power hungry dictator.

Victoria still holds the record of deaths 1,123 to NSW=568 rest of Australia=44

Victoria still holds the record for infections 88,930 to NSW=75,278

Victoria holds the record of days locked down, actually holds the world record about 270 days give or take.

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 6:09pm

.

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 6:47pm

TD,
"Most of the other adjuvant (and even first line therapies) have some degree of evidence and are very safe"

You are correct, most are very safe. But are they efficacious?

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 31 Oct 2021 at 9:24pm

A follow up with Professor Petrovsky on his crowd funding vaccine.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Monday, 1 Nov 2021 at 1:55am

All have evidence that they are san guine. Have a hunt around and check for yourself

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Monday, 1 Nov 2021 at 7:46am

For those on this site who have made their informed decisions about their alternative treatment options (as per FLCCC) in the event of getting COVID 19 requiring hospitalisation, I suggest the following:

If it all goes pear shaped and you require hospital admission for COVID, it is unlikely that you will be able to personally convey your instructions (secondary to hypoxia, hypercapnia and/or respiratory distress). So prior to hospitalisation, please notify your next of kin as to your wishes, so that when you are admitted ED physicians and the treating team are then aware of your choice.

To be clear, I would strongly recommend against the alternative treatments that have been suggested, but I would respect your choice.