COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

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Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 7:48am

This is how the left establishment will TRY and protect Fauci . Unbelievable but true .

Update (1400ET): The situation is becoming even more tenuous for Dr. Fauci as the day wears on. In a detailed tweet thread released this afternoon, Jeremy Redfern exposes the NIH - run by Fauci - for changing the definition of "gain of function" in the last few days as this shitstorm of reality struck.

For those that don't know - this is how the NIH defined “gain-of-function” on their website until at least October 19th, 2021. Just 3 days ago...

Zerohedge

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:15am

Yawn! In the end the issue of the origin of the virus will be determined by the science. Who said who to what and the documentary evidence will be irrelevant. Existing evidence points to a zoonotic origin. It is not definitive so a lab leak is still possible. Hysterical, politically driven claims about the origin are not helpful to anyone except politicians seeking to exploit the situation.

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frog Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:21am

Fauci - one of the most conflicted people on earth.

"The report said EcoHealth’s “limited experiment” was testing if “spike proteins from naturally occurring bat coronaviruses circulating in China were capable of binding to the human ace2 receptor in a mouse model.”

"Anthony Fauci’s National Institute of Health and other US agencies funded 65 scientific projects at the Wuhan Institute of Virology over the past decade, many involving risky research on bat coronaviruses, an investigation has revealed."

Does this mean indirect responsibility - who knows? Risky behavior with potentially major consequences for the world - definitely.

Imagine waking up each morning and facing the world in his role with that history to obfuscate.

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:19am

What history? Supporting research that helps prepare us for pandemics? If that work on bat viruses had not been done it would have taken longer to produce the vaccines. Zoonotic diseases are occurring more frequently. Even if this one did turn out to be a lab leak, the odds are that the next pandemic and the one after that and the one after that, will be zoonotic.

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:30am

BB - "the issue of the origin of the virus will be determined by the science. "

It was determined by science . We now KNOW it was fucken science that created the virus . It was obvious this was the case before the proof was provided .

Scientists NEED to know how it was created , why it was created , and who created it .

Very simple , as everyone knows , but you , that is how we can best combat the virus .

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sypkan Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:24am

"Does this mean responsibility - who knows? But risky behavior - definitely.

Imagine waking up each morning and facing the world in his role with that history to obfuscate."

exactly!

putting the politics of 'right wing conspiracies' aside...

the cunt should've gone a long time ago

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frog Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:35am

If it is to occur at all, should such US sponsored high risk research occur at arms length in a lab in China? If your goal was risk minimisation that would not be the best choice - more likely way down the list of options.

That was a NIH and Fauci choice.

A risk dice rolled. Which side up it fell will probably never be known. But Fauci helped roll something with potentially big consequences made riskier by choosing the lab in China to do the work.

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Vic Local Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:27am

Hey blindboy, you really haven't been paying attention.
"Yawn! In the end the issue of the origin of the virus will be determined by the science."
For you maybe, but one thing this forum has shown us, is that science means absolutely nothing to some people and they will make up their own reality. The alternative facts people are just fucking weird.

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:35am

frog that assumes that the US has more reliable supervision which is doubtful at a time the same people arguing for a lab leak are blaming Fauci. Then there is the point that the source of these viruses are bats found in China and that Chinese virologists are more experienced in handling them. The bigger point is that this is all just idle speculation that serves no purpose. Science will ultimately find out what happened. All the rest is bullshit of one sort or another.

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sypkan Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:37am

so there's no conflict of interest vicvocal?

faucci's err... 'objectivity' required for his current position not compromised by his history at all?

"...For you maybe, but one thing this forum has shown us, is that science means absolutely nothing to some people and they will make up their own reality. The alternative facts people are just fucking weird."

you got that bit right, ...you're one weird unscientific fuckwit

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:41am

Of course you could consider the evidence......but that ruin your fun!

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3

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frog Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:50am

I don't think these questions are "idle speculation" and "serve no purpose".

On SW maybe but not in decision making bodies around the world that: fund gain of function research and in laboratory hygiene control management.. The number and type of risks taken in the past are critical questions. Fauci is obfuscating on this topic - not facing it squarely.

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:55am

Fauci secretly took the research to China - fact .

The research was "gain of function " - fact .

Trump ordered him to stop doing the research in the US - fact .

We ended up having a new virus that came out of China - fact .

You guys think it is idle speculation - fact .

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:55am

The questions about lab safety are legitimate and will be addressed regardless of the origin of the virus.

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sypkan Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:11am
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Fauci secretly took the research to China - fact .

The research was "gain of function " - fact .

Trump ordered him to stop doing the research in the US - fact .

We ended up having a new virus that came out of China - fact .

You guys think it is idle speculation - fact .

you missed one...

trump also reistated funding for 'GOF' research, ...before stopping it - fact

which for us non-partisan non-braindead people is important... because it displays the known dangers and dodgyness around such research...

and it tries to take some of the politics out of it, ....which some claim to do... but...

geez... please please try a little harder....

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/12/feds-lift-gain-funct...

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:08am

No reference no credibility

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:21am

sypkan - I am glad you added this .

"trump also reistated funding for 'GOF' research, ...before stopping it - fact"

At least this time he took advice and changed a wrong .

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:27am

No reference, no credibility

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:32am

BB - so weird that you need a reference for any fact that doesn't suit your narrative .

Why don't you just cover your eyes and ears and start yelling ?

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Supafreak Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:36am
blindboy wrote:

What history? Supporting research that helps prepare us for pandemics? If that work on bat viruses had not been done it would have taken longer to produce the vaccines. Zoonotic diseases are occurring more frequently. Even if this one did turn out to be a lab leak, the odds are that the next pandemic and the one after that and the one after that, will be zoonotic.

Can you please provide a link to support your claim that it would have taken longer to produce a vaccine if the research on gain of function hadn’t been done. No link no credibility.

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:36am

No reference, no credibility

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Supafreak Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:54am

Link , reference , anything that supports your claims. I was under the impression that in a decade , mankind had not benefited from GOF research.

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 12:11pm

The discussion was about research on bat viruses more generally than specifically gof. My point, as explained in the link, is that knowledge of the structure of the spike protein (which is one or more polypeptide chains twisted into a complex shape containing over 1000 amino acids) is essential.for making most of the vaccines now in use. The mRNA vaccines also depend on knowing the genetic code for the spike protein. I will have a look for a link that goes into more detail.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/how-are-covid-19-va...

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Supafreak Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 12:41pm

My mistake I thought the general conversation was about GOF research and Fauci’s roll in it .

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 12:53pm

If that was the intention they should have stated it and provided a link to clarify exactly what they were complaining about. Instead it was a jumble of vague accusations. I did a quick search myself to see if I could find something specific but nothing came up. Happy to look at any reference you provide, though previous experience doesn't inspire confidence in your ability to identify reliable sources.

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Roadkill Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 12:57pm

Pretty interesting to read forward modelling. Will be funny to see QLD’ers run to get vaxxed when deaths start to get up in numbers…soz, but you should have got vaxxed earlier when you had the chance.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-23/qld-coronavirus-covid-roadmap-ana...

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Supafreak Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 12:57pm

So again , you got nothing ? Oh dear , how about your famous 5 from Twitter ? Found a paper on their claims yet ? Oh well keep trying.

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Roadkill Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 1:00pm

I’m struggling to see the Fauci fascination in here.

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 1:23pm

supafreak I have never used twitter so have no idea what you are talking about.

Roadkill, for all their fascination no-one has yet been able to provide a link that explains their concern. Having seen the overwhelming failure of the anti-vaxxers and the ivermectin idiots to make any progress with the general public, I think they are just trying to find some new nonsense to amuse themselves.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 1:50pm

My two favourite lefties, even if they are a bit nutty at times. (ivermectin related)

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 3:13pm

BB- I never tire reading your your comments -", I think they are just trying to find some new nonsense to amuse themselves."

I don't think you think . The original post about Fauci lying was linked and it is in all ( worth reading ) news .

This one one of your best . It is a simple topic , funding GOF research and him lying under oath .

Your response " is that knowledge of the structure of the spike protein (which is one or more polypeptide chains twisted into a complex shape containing over 1000 amino acids) is essential.for making most of the vaccines now in use. The mRNA vaccines also depend on knowing the genetic code for the spike protein. I will have a look for a link that goes into more detail."

Absolute classic !!!!!!

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 3:35pm

So supafreak EcoHealth disagree with Fauci and the NIH about the timing of the notification informing them that they had, apparently inadvertently, potentially increased the virulence of a bat virus already known to infect humans. Then there is the statement that mice infected with a modified virus became sicker than those infected with the natural virus. The same virus as the previous one? Not clear. Relevance? Marginal at best.

Then if you follow the links to the actual missing progress report, you find this.

"Finally, our serological testing results provide the first evidence ever of a bat SARSr-CoV spilling over into people in the wild. All of the SARSr-CoV positive individuals were from Yunnan province, which is the site of a cave in which we have identified a large diversity of SARSr-CoVs within the virome of which every genetic element of SARS-CoV can be identified. These findings warrant further investigations into the type of exposures that may have contributed to bat SARS- related CoVs to infect humans in this particular region. They also highlight this region as a hotspot for SARSr-CoV future spillover risk."

So their main finding, in May 2019, highlights the risk of a bat coronavirus infecting humans. And then there is this

"However it has important implications for predicting and preventing pandemics:
1. It indicates that spillover of novel bat-CoVs is detectable if populations that live within areas inhabited by likely bats hosts are targeted. This provides a pathway to identify spillover events rapidly, perhaps even before a SARS-like disease can become established in people;"

Missed the bus on that one eh? Maybe that is what they wanted to hide.

So the whole Fauci thing is pretty much irrelevant. The Chinese authorities were secretive. The US authorities were secretive. The company invoved was secretive. Sounds like business as usual to me. Since none of them could be sure it wasn't a lab escape, they were not going to hand over evidence that could potentially link them to the outbreak. But it will only be a holding tactic. The research will go on. The source will be found. Until then all the rest is just a sideshow that has the strongest attraction to those with the least understanding......or those trying to boost their circulation. So risky research! Is it worth it? I think so provided a thorough security check is carried out. That's my opinion, yours might differ, but it's still just an opinion.

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Supafreak Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 3:55pm

If you consider Fauci lying under oath to congress ( more than once ) “pretty much irrelevant “ , well what can I say ? It’s ok I’m sure your hero will just get his fingers smacked at worse , don’t know why he just doesn’t pull a collins and retire .

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 4:01pm

You are on a roll today BB . You say " So risky research! Is it worth it? I think so provided a thorough security check is carried out. "

Then you say without adding that Fauci was also secretive " The Chinese authorities were secretive. The US authorities were secretive. The company invoved was secretive. "

Is that your definition of "So risky research! Is it worth it? I think so provided a thorough security check is carried out."

Where was the security check ?

Don't go as it gets better .

You say "there is the statement that mice infected with a modified virus became sicker than those infected with the natural virus. "

And then you say "Relevance? Marginal at best."

You are in career best form today !

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 4:09pm

From the evidence presented in your link it is far from clear that he did lie. It is a disputed allegation in which all of the parties involved had a motivation to lie. Also given his position and the quantity of documents crossing his desk everyday there is the possibility of simple oversight.

But as I said it is irrelevant to the fundamental issue of finding the source of the pandemic. But thanks for the link.it led me to that really interesting research.....and there is, as I said before a strong possibility that what they were trying to hide was that they had clear warning of the risk of a bat virus jumping into humans plus a clear strategy to prevent it....and none of them acted.

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frog Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 5:12pm

Yes, BB, those "thorough security checks" on secretive viral research labs in Wuhan are so easy to do. So all okay.

The funding applications to the NIH would have had a selection criteria such as "please describe your biosecuity systems". Applicants would dutifully cut and paste lots of words from their S.O.P. and score 7 out of 10. If inspections required, lots of white walls lab coats would be seen. Boxes ticked.

Grant successful.

All is well. We are safe from future pandemics from risky research thanks to those thorough security checks.

Sort of....

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Supafreak Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 5:34pm

@blindboy. You’re not convinced Fauci lied but there’s plenty of people that believe it’s pretty clear that he did . https://dossier.substack.com/p/whitewash-are-us-government-health

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Roadkill Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 5:38pm
Supafreak wrote:

If you consider Fauci lying under oath to congress ( more than once ) “pretty much irrelevant “ , well what can I say ? It’s ok I’m sure your hero will just get his fingers smacked at worse , don’t know why he just doesn’t pull a collins and retire .

Are you talking to me? Who is my hero?

And Fauci lying under oath..no fucks given. What happens in America and Fauci in front of congress getting grilled (or similar) is mildly interesting in regards to politics but on the whole for us in Australia, it’s basically irrelevant.

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Roadkill Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 5:40pm

I read the rest of the comments…not me. Ignore me.

Although, Fauci lying under oath is irrelevant.

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 5:49pm

frog, you have no idea what you are talking about.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21055989-understanding-risk-bat-...

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:16pm

BB- Your form is hot .

He was not lying , he couldn't remember giving $US600k p/a to the Chinese , he wasn't sure what they would do with the money or , as you say "there is the possibility of simple oversight."

None of its relevant .

The bats did it all . Bloody bats .

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:19pm

More nonsense

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frog Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:35pm
blindboy wrote:

frog, you have no idea what you are talking about.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21055989-understanding-risk-bat-...

I have lot of knowledge on grant appkications, assessment criteria and evaluation panels from both sides of the fence. (Applying and evaluating) One hopes the words in the application - often cut and pastes from various corporate documents reflect what happens in practice. Mostly it is an approximation. Risk mitigation is just that - risk reduction.

Mostly it is not that critical that everything in a project goes perfectly.

In some gain of function research it is critical. Words in Standard Operating Procedures do not mean certainty.

What they do is far more risky than they pretend.

Fauci and associates took far more direct and indirect risks than they let on.

Last year there were many "oh shit" moments for a lot of researchers and funding bodies around the world. Risk became real.

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:25pm

I know BB. They are your views . I quoted you . Unbelievable .

Maybe if I quote and seem as though I am agreeing with you more you will see how much nonsense you actually write ?

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troppo dichotomy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:26pm

Couldn't we've just vaccinated all the bats and pangolins?

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blindboy Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:34pm

Boilerplate doesn't get grants in that field ....... or most others.

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frog Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:47pm
blindboy wrote:

Boilerplate doesn't get grants in that field ....... or most others.

Phew... what planet?

I bet it does - very slick boiler plate and good (but not perfect) systems operated by things called humans who make mistakes every day will secure funding.

Risks are mitigated not removed in the real world.

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Supafreak Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:40pm
troppo dichotomy wrote:

Couldn't we've just vaccinated all the bats and pangolins?

You might want to read this troppo https://www.popsci.com/science/zoo-animals-covid-vaccines-us/

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:42pm

I agree with BB - "Boilerplate doesn't get grants in that field " . Like Shorten said - I don't know what he said but I agree with him .