COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Stok's picture
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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 8:55pm

Glad I provided some entertainment for you!

I hold my position firmly knowing its backed by millions of experts in the relevant field. That's enough for me!

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gsco Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:15pm

That's a very good video Supa, thanks for posting it.

Stok you'd be off the mark to dismiss it.

I found it very helpful and reassuring, calming, and gave me come faith and confidence.

The guest speaker Paul Offit is on the FDA vaccine advisory committee and the CDC advisory committee on immunisation practices, so he's in the thick of the decision making process on vaccines in the US.

Stok if there is anyone on this planet that fits your description of an expert, it's this dude.

I think the reason freeride questioned Supa posting it is that Paul Offit is pro vaccine for everyone, including kids, and he makes a good case about vaccine efficiency and safety etc, so it might be viewed as against Supa's "bias" and narrative.

I think the reason Supa posted it is that Paul Offit said there is currently no evidence to support that boosters are needed in order to reduce severe illness, over and above already being double vaccinated, for most the population. This is in line with WHO advice.

Paul Offit said that the rationale/objective for boosters based on the current evidence would be to eliminate all illness, including mild illness, but that this has never been an objective of any vaccine in history. He said vaccine boosters do appear to potentially achieve this unnecessary objective, but would need to be done every three months, which is not feasible.

His advice is basically aligned with the WHO.

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bonza Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:09pm
Stok wrote:

Glad I provided some entertainment for you!

I hold my position firmly knowing its backed by millions of experts in the relevant field. That's enough for me!

Except you disagree with them on vaxxing kids re covid so based on your logic you r an antivaxxer.

Anyways this is how a constructive discussion occurs when someone with a credible argument is different to yours.

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/i-wont-call-dr-offit-an-anti-vaxxer/?ut...

“We need to leave room for people to have good faith disagreements and questions without inappropriately smearing them as “anti-vaxxers”.

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bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:19pm

C'mon Bonza! Stok is the only 'academic' on Swellnet. We should all bow down to his, um, knowledge? I thought Roadkill and Viclocal were dumb as dogshit...but now..there's Stok...THE academic!! Funny story, i did my degree via travelling in a van around Australia. It wasn't too hard. Do all your readings. Have half a brain. Meld a few sources together, a relatively comprehensive sentence or two, an opinion, and bingo. Nice big P!! Academics arrr Rseee!! Stoks an academic, so I am too. In philosophy!! Who woulda thunk!!

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Supafreak Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:55pm

Stok said “ Funny isn't it, how there's this long list of doctors popping up on your YouTube searches, discrediting vaccines or the way they've formed the basis of our pandemic response. It's almost like there's some form of ALGORITH!!! in social media which is prone to showing you what you want to see. “ …………….. Is there a vaccine for foot in mouth disease ? I think it was shelved , pity, stok could do with a few doses .

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:58pm

I also have a degree BD. Poor Stok though he was all high n mighty. Turns out he's just a common man with a chip on his shoulder

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troppo dichotomy Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:02pm

not just a chip on his shoulder m8.he's got chip for brains

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bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:04pm

hahahaha. All the above.
Yes, probably the first thing you learn as an 'academic', is to do your 'resuuurch' and not just trust the youtube algorithms!!!! But what would i know,...all sad and depressed down here in the deep south.....!!

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bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:07pm

btw Supafreak, his spelling and grammatical errors are never ending. But so are mine! But i'm not an academic!! So who cares. ha! AlgaeRhythmns?? Yew!!

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bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:08pm

Fuk! would be a good name for a band!! Claiming it!! 'The 'antivaxxed' and the Algae Rhythms!!

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bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:28pm

@stoks gone scurrying with his little cereal packet piece of paper. What a fucken' wanker. To assume you're better than others based on your little piss weak piece of paper. Piss weak.

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:37pm

He also went very quiet when i pointed out that his favourite Nutrition Doctor was also a Dr in public health specialising in emerging infectious diseases when Stok he used his academic wisdom to point out that he wouldn't go to a nutrition doctor for pandemic advice.

Almighty academic Stok..... where are you?

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ringostarr Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 10:55pm

Latest data from Victorian DoH. "Yesterday, Victoria recorded 1089 people with COVID-19 in hospital and 113 active and cleared cases in ICU. Of cases in hospital yesterday, unvaccinated people made up 22.8 per cent of those in hospital and 35.8 per cent of those in ICU, despite the fact the proportion of unvaccinated adults in the community is less than six per cent."

https://www.health.vic.gov.au/media-releases/coronavirus-update-26-janua...

I would like to know more data from the info provided in the link above. For example, how many of these cases of people in hospital with Covid, are there solely because of Covid. But I doubt very much, given the reasonably significant sample size, that there is a really disproportionate number of unvaccinated people in ICU for reasons other than Covid (eg unvaccinated are worse drivers or take more risks driving so have a significantly higher likelihood of car accidents ending up in ICU? I doubt it). So I think it is probably fair to assume (unless we are being severely misled by the folks that put this summary together) that the above numbers do show, quite clearly, that vaccinations work in keeping people out of ICU. 36% of ICU admissions are unvaccinated, compared to 6% of the population. If we are not being actively misled, I'm not sure what some crew on here are trying to argue. The data supports the position put forward by the overwhelming majority of experts on the subject that the vaccinations are the right approach to protect THE COMMUNITY. What Kelly Slater knows about his body isn't relevant. If he is thinking only about him and his health (and from what I've seen of his comments I think his focus is Kelly - makes sense, you have to be pretty selfish to be #1 in the world at anything, maybe unless you're Ash Barty), the odds are he would be fine. But for a community of millions with a stretched health system, we need to look beyond ourselves. That's what a community does. Or at least the type of community I'd like to live in.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:06pm

gsco said “ I think the reason Supa posted it is that Paul Offit said there is currently no evidence to support that boosters are needed in order to reduce severe illness, over and above already being double vaccinated, for most the population. This is in line with WHO advice. “ ……………I thought the video covered a lot of various issues and I would like to see someone like Dr Offit publicly debate Dr Malone . He sounded like he personally knew him , calling Malone out face to face is what’s needed . I like to listen to both sides and there were some radical statements made that Rogan didn’t have the knowledge to challenge. I’d also like to see someone challenge Offit on vaccination for healthy kids against omicron. Its amazing that a bloke like Offit can be thought of as anti- vaxx simply by not going along with everything regarding policy around mandates and boosters .

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Supafreak Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:20pm

Came across this quote on Twitter ……” Always remember, the truth doesn’t mind being questioned but lies do not like being challenged. Instead of having conversations like human beings we’re focused on canceling. “

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bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:49pm

Boom! +1 to that Supafreak.

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tylerdurden Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:54pm

An interesting social experiment may be to see a country reach a vaccination level that is consistent with herd immunity, let’s say that means 80% of the population (all ages) within 3 months of their last dose. And then see what happens over the ensuing few weeks. Only problem is that of course in 3 months time most of the population is less protected and hence vulnerable.
Could send a country broke trying to perpetually maintain 80% boosted.

WA might be in this situation soon: encourage everyone to get boosted but not open the doors until the boosters have worn off!!

Might be time to rethink our early treatment options

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:58pm

Bit of back slapping going on here tonight, am I right?

Looks like I've won the title of pro vax bogeyman, given to me by the swellnet 'do your own research' committee ;)

I don't pretend to have the time, knowledge or experience....or basically anything else above the people here. I'm a flog too and I know it. I enjoy cruising these forums mostly when I've run out of content on my social media, whilst on the bog. Listen to me, or don't. Ignore me enough and I'll probably get bored and fade off. Insult me and we may have a laugh together ;)

I jumped into this convo here as frankly, I found it stupid. People here just sharing links to news articles, or YouTube bloggers (some with qualifications, some without). Everyone essentially had there mind made up, and there was the listen to the 'experts crowd' which I admittedly am in, and the 'the experts may be wrong and let's discuss' crowd'. There's also the batshit insane conspiracy crowd too.

But what got to me, and still gets to me, is what's the point of this discussion? Why share articles about this topic online in an anonymous manner? You'd actually be plain dumb to change your position on this topic, based on what you read online in forum such as this. So I can only assume people do it for reassurance - that they're questioning of health advice is warranted and they're not alone in the way they think? Which is ok, but it's risky - and breeds further dangerous thinking through conformational biases.

There's a reason why you don't look for health advice online, in an anonymous forum. Just like you wouldn't take legal advice, or financial advice. This topic is highly nuanced and very easily manipulated to capture emotions. I'm pretty sure I've never shared an article on covid, or vaccines, recommended a podcast, suggested someone to google a certain doctor or whatever. It's actually not appropriate. Doing it may make you feel like your helping to uncover the larger truths, but because none of us are anywhere nearly capable of assessing and interpreting what's going on here in full, it's just plain risky.

Supa, some of the content you post is actually ok, but the fact remains, that your posting anonymously online. Your not an expert, your prone to emotional decision making....or maybe your not? No one here will know. There's a reason why these days almost any service you call will say 'this advice is general advice, and you need to consider consider appropriate for you'. You've had a laugh at me before for listening to the mainstream narrative, but you'vee made the assumption that I haven't personally run the gauntlet with the other conflicting narratives, and still decided to trust mainstream - am I right?

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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 12:05am

On a separate note, had an interesting philosophical thought today.

We only focus on number of lives lost with this virus, in the media, in this forum, in our discussions, but rarely do we discuss lives saved?

Just think:
That one person who stayed home instead of visiting their friends during the early days.

That person who wore masks when appropriate.

The people getting vaccinated.

How many lives are actually being saved? It actually shows how humanity can get its shit together, in the face of a crisis which tests the evolutionary instincts we all have. This virus, for the most part of it, was happening 'far away' and was 'not that deadly' - two things which we are NOT designed to worry about. We're designed for the here and now, the lizard brain etc. etc.

But we actually did a pretty good job.

Bet that'll trigger a few of you in this chat ;)

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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 12:06am
ringostarr wrote:

Or at least the type of community I'd like to live in.

Amen Ringostarr.

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bluediamond Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 12:12am

@stok...that sounds like a whole heap of backpedalling on your very strong opinions A man without conviction?? Not a man. There's people here discussing this topic because we're all trying to find our way through it. Then along comes the educator...but he's not the educator, he's just some dipshit sitting on the toilet. Yep. I'll go with the second one. Fuck right off. Weak yellow bellied scum.

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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 12:26am

Take from it what you will BD.

Have to say, you've built me up in some weird manner right there....the educator? I dunno mate, feels kind of weird. I'm picturing you've sketched up what you thought I looked like, pinned me to a wall and have been flinging darts at me all afternoon?

I guess your day to day probably excludes meeting people from an academic background? Were just human too.

Anyway....lift your insult game pal. Yellow bellied?

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Blowin Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:25am
Stok wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

Cheers Blowie. Had our differences on here, but a new found respect for you and your stand for what's right. Cheers GSCO and crew. Good to see the cream rise to the top. And yep Goofy! haha. I think i've made my point for now. ;-)

Made your point?

I was genuinely concerned for your well-being with the tyrade of childish insults and straight out confusing posts.

Actually glad to see you are OK.

But seriously - LOL - the shit you posted yesterday was like an insight to the insanity the anti vax crew all have as their underlying foundations of their ideas. Dark, repressed, frightened and fanciful thoughts. 80% of the world are dumb c*nts! Hahahah.

The embarrassing thing is you applaud Blowin for his stand for what's right.....you really are long gone mate. No one is trying to get you, no one is trying to do anything other than what will actually provide the best overall outcome for all of us. Sure, there'd be some carnts capitalising off this debacle, on both sides, but the government and experts who advise them are actually not out to get you - and you want to fight them?

Coming from hermit kingdom WA, it does make sense that you're more scared of the injection than the virus, but all around the world, the virus has ripped through populations. The 100k reactions to the jab compared to the 48M doses given in Aus would pale in comparison to the damage this virus would do unchecked in an unvaxxed population. It's horrible what happened to your friend, but it doesn't make you right, and everyone else wrong.

What the fuck are you talking about?

The Premier of WA is openly hostile and antagonistic to anyone who won’t submit to the medical procedure he is blackmailing them into receiving.

Give all the generalities you want about covid, fact remains that BD doesn’t want the vaccine and there is a section of the human rights act which covers this very notion: No one can be coerced or forced into medical procedure.

There literally Is people out to get him.

They are deliberately inflicting social, economic and emotional pressure to get him to take a jab which does NOTHING to reduce the spread of covid. BD, being a young fit surfer, faces virtually no threat from covid.

There is NO genuine medical or scientific reason he should be required to be injected with a toxic substance, which provides no significant benefit, whilst also posing potential health risks.

I can’t get my head around how relentlessly you present your case despite it being completely unsubstantiated by facts and despite the glaring lies you need to issue in order to back your subjective beliefs.

“Dark, repressed , frightened and fanciful thoughts” ? Fuck sake bloke, the weight of the state is bearing down on ordinary people to make them comply and conform to an invasive and irreversible procedure they do not want or need.

And you side with some scumbag who has weaponised this persecution of innocent citizens for his political advantage?

You’re a fucken low , low person.

Get a clue.

Even medical experts state that vaccine mandates are not justified. You are not backed by science, you are not backed by medicine. You are a fricken Brown shirt who spends his free time pressuring fellow members of the community to bend to the might of political power.

Show me the evidence for your vaccine mandate.

Go on….run along and do your academic thing. Provide substantial, peer reviewed documentation which backs up your disgraceful belief that ordinary people should be subjected to this bullshit.

You’re a fuckin creep bloke.

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Roadkill Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 8:21am
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tylerdurden Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 8:23am

You are probably not aware Udo but both of those drugs (Paxlovid and Molnupiravir) have been approved in the US on the basis of drug company sponsored (Pfizer and Merck) trials that as far as I’m aware are still in preprint and have not been peer reviewed.

Some commentators and health nerds have very prominently “debunked” the evidence for other early treatments ad nauseum, let alone some agencies have publicly ridiculed some of the medications.
Our TGA has actually banned the use of Ivermectin despite a plausible 5-10% benefit (in the opinion of Gideon M-K) and the NCCET recommendeds only one, budesonide as an outpatient, with many, many more either not recommended or for trials only.

The question is why the seeming inconsistency in the analysis of the evidence?
Believe one unpublished drug company trial over many independent peer reviewed trials?

And they’re both very expensive, few hundred bucks a course

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Supafreak Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 8:29am

University of Minnesota ivermectin trial nearing completion https://m.startribune.com/university-of-minnesota-ivermectin-trial-neari...

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tylerdurden Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 8:40am

That is a good trial Supa. It apparently passed the “futility” test a few weeks ago whereby they look at the interim results and consider whether it is worth pursuing. In other words, if there is either a negative result or no real difference with very limited chance of achieving a statistically significant result (based on sample size) then they abandon it.
But it passed that assessment so we’ll wait and see.

Only thing I don’t know about that trial is how early the treatments get into the patient.
The Principal trial in the UK for example allowed enrolment up to 14 days after onset of symptoms, which means that some people will be basically recovered when they enter the trial.

In contrast, Pfizer some how managed to get Paxlovid into their trial patients within 3 days of onset of symptoms, which is actually quite an incredible achievement

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Ben Harding Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:16am
Stok wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

Cheers Blowie. Had our differences on here, but a new found respect for you and your stand for what's right. Cheers GSCO and crew. Good to see the cream rise to the top. And yep Goofy! haha. I think i've made my point for now. ;-)

Made your point?

I was genuinely concerned for your well-being with the tyrade of childish insults and straight out confusing posts.

Actually glad to see you are OK.

But seriously - LOL - the shit you posted yesterday was like an insight to the insanity the anti vax crew all have as their underlying foundations of their ideas. Dark, repressed, frightened and fanciful thoughts. 80% of the world are dumb c*nts! Hahahah.

The embarrassing thing is you applaud Blowin for his stand for what's right.....you really are long gone mate. No one is trying to get you, no one is trying to do anything other than what will actually provide the best overall outcome for all of us. Sure, there'd be some carnts capitalising off this debacle, on both sides, but the government and experts who advise them are actually not out to get you - and you want to fight them?

Coming from hermit kingdom WA, it does make sense that you're more scared of the injection than the virus, but all around the world, the virus has ripped through populations. The 100k reactions to the jab compared to the 48M doses given in Aus would pale in comparison to the damage this virus would do unchecked in an unvaxxed population. It's horrible what happened to your friend, but it doesn't make you right, and everyone else wrong.

From this:

"Actually glad to see you are OK"

To this:

...But seriously - LOL - the shit you posted yesterday was like an insight to the insanity the anti vax crew all have as their underlying foundations of their ideas. Dark, repressed, frightened and fanciful thoughts. 80% of the world are dumb c*nts! Hahahah."

“....you really are long gone mate”

You are just as insane, if not more, than the crew you denigrate on the hour it now appears, Stok.

In all my time reading online forums you are the first and only one to come out and say that you're an "academic…in a different field". Why? And in this thread of all threads. To somehow qualify your opinion and perspective as something worth paying attention to and accepting? It's had the opposite effect, the microscope is heavily on you now and you have come up short across most measures IMO. Particularly common sense. You would be surprised how many crew are tertiary educated too mate, it's not the 90s anymore. You have some ok points here and there, but I think you need to change gears; maybe up to 3rd. Sorry mate but you look really foolish. Did you mention what field your doctorate was in? I am very curious to know now. If this is the discourse of contemporary academia, then I really wonder if it’s beneficial for anyone out there to pursue postgraduate studies.

As GSCO said, everyone can learn from everyone on forums such as these. Swinging dicks really don’t last long, as you are finding out. The only reason your education is being attacked is because of you and your ego.

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burleigh Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:17am

Spot on Ben

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:36am
bluediamond wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:
bluediamond wrote:

BTW, the Slater thread got discontinued i think, due to the obvious deterioration of comments, but is it at all possible to re post Blowin's comments on it re Slater SN crew?? One of the best post's i've ever read on SN and i know alot agree with me.

That was a good comment, i was actually thinking the same thing before i even read it.

At times you can think Kelly is a bit nutty with his diet and thoughts, but it's 100% worked for him, nobody every thought it would be possible to compete at his age, when Occy won his tittle at 30 that was old to be on the tour.

The young guys surf better than him obviously but he is still by far the best surfer for his age in the world and super fit, health and flexible.

Agree it was a very good post from Blowin with some good points.

Yeah that's the one Indo. It's baffling that folk can't understand that Slater sits on a perch waaaaay above most of us, as far as humans encountered on his world wide journeys, waves ridden, experiences lived and amount of people he knows. Cultures, sheer geography of space he's covered... Doesn't make him holier than though, he's got his faults no doubt, like we all do, but to completely ignore the fact the threads of his life lived are alot more diverse and deeper and integrated deeply with other humans, compared to the average human is ridiculous. Doesn't make him better or worse....just more experienced and someone definitely worth listening to!
Also, good on you for your integrity and staying true to your beliefs on this thread. You're post's are always level headed and non emotive (unlike my own!!) Again, butted heads with you many times....at times pretty gnarly, but nothing but respect for keeping a completely open mind and re evaluating things as they develop. Cheers.

Cheers BD, I'm sure we will butt heads in the future on other topics too, but its really not important we don't have to all agree on everything.

For me it's not all that important how we disagree on things, it more important how people interact when they aren't disagreeing if that makes sense.

I just think on this whole topic peoples choices to be vaccinated or not aren't really important to anyone else, i find it weird how others can hate on someone and often passionately too, just because someone doesn't want to get vaccinated or has different beliefs about the safety or effects of the vaccine.

Even the idea of vaccine mandates just seem pointless and divisive, maybe there is an argument that unvaccinated international arrivals could take up an Aussie hospital bed or ventilator, but really for the most part even this is unrealistic, like does anyone really think someone like Kelly or that Tennis player guy is going to get so sick and he ends up in hospital, its extremely unlikely.

If there was an argument for not allowing someone in because they are unvaccinated and they could take up a hospital bed, then it's only going to be for high risk groups, which maybe should be judged on a case by case basis for travellers over a certain age group for example.. so travellers over a certain age unvaccinated would have to arrive with a letter from doctor guaranteeing they are of a decent health. (for other visas like when my Indo inlays came they actually had to get a full medical for similar reasons so its not unrealistic)

BTW. If the vaccine actually prevented community transmission then my views would probably be different as it wouldn't be just about the individual but the whole community, but IF and thats a big IF they do prevent any person person to transmission its clearly pretty close to irrelevant.

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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:58am
Ben Harding wrote:

In all my time reading online forums you are the first and only one to come out and say that you're an "academic…in a different field". Why? And in this thread of all threads. To somehow qualify your opinion and perspective as something worth paying attention to and accepting? It's had the opposite effect, the microscope is heavily on you now and you have come up short across most measures IMO. Particularly common sense. You would be surprised how many crew are tertiary educated too mate, it's not the 90s anymore. You have some ok points here and there, but I think you need to change gears; maybe up to 3rd. Sorry mate but you look really foolish. Did you mention what field your doctorate was in? I am very curious to know now. If this is the discourse of contemporary academia, then I really wonder if it’s beneficial for anyone out there to pursue postgraduate studies.

As GSCO said, everyone can learn from everyone on forums such as these. Swinging dicks really don’t last long, as you are finding out. The only reason your education is being attacked is because of you and your ego.

Pretty simple stuff Ben, throughout my education and career I've developed a healthy level of respect for people who devote their lives into the research and development of scientific ideas. This forum, and many others like it, are a slap in the face to these people. Posters here are challenging these ideas, using a variety of sources, some of which are straight out right wing propaganda/conspiracy stuff (yes, some of it's better). Now, I don't know anyone's background here, but to me if the majority on here were tertiary educated, and continuing to work in their qualified field, they should have an appreciation of the difference between an expert in the field, and a grifter/commentator who's taking no accountability of what they're saying.

I can't really remember why i said it, but I'm pretty sure it was to push home this point. Why did I post it here? Because this pandemic has been a shit show of misinformation, and I enjoy this website for it's surf content.

All I can say is, I feel like I barely muttered the words 'I'm an academic', severall posts ago, and it's like blood to the hounds. The tall poppy syndrome is strong here ;)

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:12am

I think you assessment is unfair Stok from what ive seen here most of the links here seem to be too other academic's who just have different opinions on things.

The source of Covid, changing face of Covid and variants, Vaccines etc

Its all just constantly changing and academics are constantly throwing shit at the wall and some sticks and ends up being true others bits dont, and then some of the things that were true also change to not become true with different variants etc

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burleigh Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:19am

Don’t question me, I’ve got an education……. And a massive fucking chip on my shoulder

I feel sorry for you mate, you’re superiority complex because you went to uni is bringing you down champ.

You’re not special, and your shit still stinks like the rest of us.

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tylerdurden Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:23am

The answer is on the horizon Indo.
If it’s deemed that the 2nd booster (4th shot) is not required then in a few months time just about everyone will be “unvaccinated” or whatever you want to call it.
At that point I’m guessing someone who is 3 months (maybe 6?) post booster is exactly the same risk as someone who has had no vaccines at all.
Not sure if that’s how it works but seems like that to me

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freeride76 Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:24am

You still have defences against serious illness outcomes, at least that seems to be the evidence presented by the Bloke Supafreak put up.

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Ben Harding Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:30am
Stok wrote:
Ben Harding wrote:

In all my time reading online forums you are the first and only one to come out and say that you're an "academic…in a different field". Why? And in this thread of all threads. To somehow qualify your opinion and perspective as something worth paying attention to and accepting? It's had the opposite effect, the microscope is heavily on you now and you have come up short across most measures IMO. Particularly common sense. You would be surprised how many crew are tertiary educated too mate, it's not the 90s anymore. You have some ok points here and there, but I think you need to change gears; maybe up to 3rd. Sorry mate but you look really foolish. Did you mention what field your doctorate was in? I am very curious to know now. If this is the discourse of contemporary academia, then I really wonder if it’s beneficial for anyone out there to pursue postgraduate studies.

As GSCO said, everyone can learn from everyone on forums such as these. Swinging dicks really don’t last long, as you are finding out. The only reason your education is being attacked is because of you and your ego.

Pretty simple stuff Ben, throughout my education and career I've developed a healthy level of respect for people who devote their lives into the research and development of scientific ideas. This forum, and many others like it, are a slap in the face to these people. Posters here are challenging these ideas, using a variety of sources, some of which are straight out right wing propaganda/conspiracy stuff (yes, some of it's better). Now, I don't know anyone's background here, but to me if the majority on here were tertiary educated, and continuing to work in their qualified field, they should have an appreciation of the difference between an expert in the field, and a grifter/commentator who's taking no accountability of what they're saying.

I can't really remember why i said it, but I'm pretty sure it was to push home this point. Why did I post it here? Because this pandemic has been a shit show of misinformation, and I enjoy this website for it's surf content.

All I can say is, I feel like I barely muttered the words 'I'm an academic', severall posts ago, and it's like blood to the hounds. The tall poppy syndrome is strong here ;)

“throughout my education and career I've developed a healthy level of respect for people who devote their lives into the research and development of scientific ideas.”

That is a very questionable statement on your behalf. The evidence suggests (your posts) you do not have a healthy level of respect for those very same medical professionals whose well earned perspectives aren't in alignment with the government's status quo or how you want things to be.

Countless hyperlinks, articles, video analysis, podcasts, interviews, scientific journals, medical journals, essentially every medium you can think of, have been posted by all on this forum, yet you yourself are unable to appreciate the “difference between an expert in the field and some grifter/commentator”.

Tall poppy eh? Again with your ego…

Let’s dissect this:

"tall poppy syndrome
in British English
NOUN
Australian informal

a tendency to disparage any person who has achieved great prominence or wealth"

or,

"Tall poppy syndrome describes aspects of a culture where people of high status are resented, attacked, cut down or criticised because their achievements make them stand out from their peers."

Do you categorise yourself as one of these people of great prominence, wealth, and status who has achieved highly and that regularly endures the above mentioned hardships from the plebian class :)

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freeride76 Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:27am

And Stok seems to be presenting the mainstream medical evidence/advice in good faith to me.

You might not agree with it, but the level of personal abuse being directed at him seems unjustified to me.

Stok's picture
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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:34am
Blowin wrote:

There is NO genuine medical or scientific reason he should be required to be injected with a toxic substance, which provides no significant benefit, whilst also posing potential health risks.

.......

Even medical experts state that vaccine mandates are not justified.

Just wanted to point of these two gems, to highlight why this thread needs to be called out.

I'm not going to try to defend or argue anything here, just highlight that we have people who believe the vaccine is a risky, toxic substance which provides no benefit.

Regarding the mandates, I will say this. I don't want them, but I recognise why we need them. Oh, and medical experts may not be the best people to ask re. mandates - it's more of an issue of sociology.

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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:41am

@Ben, thanks for googling tall poppy syndrome for me ;) Trust me, I don't think I'm a person of prominence. What I was referring to is the hunger of the mob to find someone who appears to be that person - then attack them. In this case, unjustifiably!

@Indo - maybe you're right.

@FR - Yes!

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burleigh Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:42am

IMO as soon as it was beyond clear that vaccinated were spreading the virus at alarming rates all work mandates should have been dropped. Especially in health where there are clear staff shortages.

My kids school has lost 6 teachers. It just makes no sense. If the vaccine stopped transmission then ok, i get it. But that is not the case,

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tylerdurden Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:45am

The question is how long does the effect of the vaccines last post booster?
We’ll find out soon.
If there’s no 2nd booster (4th dose) then the vaccinated will be equal to the unvaccinated at some point, the question is how long

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sypkan Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:01am
indo-dreaming wrote:

I think you assessment is unfair Stok from what ive seen here most of the links here seem to be too other academic's who just have different opinions on things.

The source of Covid, changing face of Covid and variants, Vaccines etc

Its all just constantly changing and academics are constantly throwing shit at the wall and some sticks and ends up being true others bits dont, and then some of the things that were true also change to not become true with different variants etc

exactly indo, the informatiin is changing so quick, governments (and academics) cannot keep up, as we have seen...

some people clearly need to accept that....

most people on here post repuetable links, they are just not to stok's flavour (incredibly bland flavour that it is). Yes a few you tube vids are thrown in, but as many have pointed out, the cdc, and faucci and his band of the terribly compromised etc. are all on youtube too!

yes the very few true 'antivax' crew on here post some dubious sources - but tbh, they do themselves no good, and they just confirm, the whole requirement to produce good sources

your problem stok, is exactly the same as dr dicvocal and blindman, you attack the poster, you attack the person, you attack the source, you attack the politics.... rather than engaging in the content... the whole youtube thing is just you guy's lame-arse attempts to deplatform people... very 20 something mean girls uni like behaviour... but seriously stok.... you should be above that...

or maybe my appraisal of contemporary uni culture is wrong, and this mean girl cancel culture bullshit isn't the result of deans and establishments over catering to their spoilt brat 'clients'.... but it's actually the institutions insulating themselves and their interests.... either way it's pathetic... time to grow up...

ben is right, you are stuck in first or second gear mate... 2020 narrative at best... ffs you still think 'the great reset' and the 'lab leak theory' are conspiracies...

you are either terribly ignorant, terribly biased, or a pathetic little 'don't give those ideas oxygen' mean girl who cannot handle her world view being challenged...

the 'academic' in you gets bagged not as 'anti-intellectualism' or 'tall poppy syndrome'... but because you are a such bloody typical example of the very compromised contemporary uni system... and government in general...

where often it is only the 'compliant and servile' that get advancement in the system... that's not my words, but camille paglia, a life long academic and 'real' lefty... take it up with her...

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:53am
tylerdurden wrote:

The question is how long does the effect of the vaccines last post booster?
We’ll find out soon.
If there’s no 2nd booster (4th dose) then the vaccinated will be equal to the unvaccinated at some point, the question is how long

There will 100% be a fourth dose. It’s already happening.

Australia has purchased enough to jab citizens 8 x over

Get off the train, that’s the only way to stop this madness

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:59am
freeride76 wrote:

And Stok seems to be presenting the mainstream medical evidence/advice in good faith to me.

You might not agree with it, but the level of personal abuse being directed at him seems unjustified to me.

By the same people who have complained about the personal abuse.

hypocrites

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tylerdurden Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:03am

Probably right Burleigh although I think some Israeli scientists are saying there’s not much benefit

old-dog's picture
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old-dog Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:03am

Back in the real world the ball and chain dragged me down to the the clinic last week to do the right thing for society and ourselves and get Pfizer boosted. She had a sore arm next day I had no side effects. A bloke at work had covid over xmas (double jabbed but heavy smoker in his 40's), worst week of his life couldn't get up and shat the bed. Luckily he had 400 rolls of dunny paper in the shed.
Anyone who says its just a sniffle should try saying it to the families of the millions who have died and see what happens.
Imagine what would be happening in nursing homes if not for the vaccines. Oh I forgot some of you sick bastards cant wait any longer to inherit a house that you can't afford on cetrelink benefits.

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gragagan Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:04am

Neil Young removes all of his music from Spotify due to the platform hosting Joe Rogan spreading covid misinformation:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-27/spotify-removing-neil-young-music...

Stok's picture
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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:12am
sypkan wrote:

your problem stok, is exactly the same as dr dicvocal and blindman, you attack the poster, you attack the person, you attack the source, you attack the politics.... rather than engaging in the content...

I'll pay that - because I do that. Less so attacking the poster (or not at all? Well maybe Burleigh! ), more so attacking the source and political edge to the content.

I honestly don't have the time or effort to cross check every link which gets posted here, kudos to you guys if you do! Honestly!

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Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:12am
burleigh wrote:

IMO as soon as it was beyond clear that vaccinated were spreading the virus at alarming rates all work mandates should have been dropped. Especially in health where there are clear staff shortages.

My kids school has lost 6 teachers. It just makes no sense. If the vaccine stopped transmission then ok, i get it. But that is not the case,

Burleigh, you're on another planet. Flat out refusing to believe that the vaccine significantly reduces chances of hospitalisation and death, which is actually much more significant than transmission alone.

The more people vaccinated - the less pressure on hospitals.

Of course, if you listen to Reignite Democracy Australia you may feel otherwise I guess.