Longer term has been downgraded - the storm track from Africa through the southern Indian Ocean is still looking very active however the fetch alignment has been tilted away from our swell window, meaning the WA coast will be less in the direct line of fire, and will receive sideband energy.
The dominant synoptic feature is a high pressure system in the southern Tasman Sea that’s directing a firm ridge over Northern NSW and SE Qld.
There’s actually a couple of E/NE swell sources for early next week. And a S'ly swell too!
No major changes to the weekend forecast, with a reinforcing W/SW swell expected to push through overnight tonight.
A strong succession of fronts and lows will march from Madagascar through to WA longitudes, each working on the pre-existing active sea state from the last system, generating successively bigger swells for the region.
Either way the weekend’s looking fun both days but Sunday is my pick overall.
Fortunately, high pressure will move in and rapidly ease local winds, so apart from some lingering lumpiness, we should see rapidly improving conditions across all coasts (more quickly on the Mid than down south, mind).
Today’s strong groundswell is expected to peak overnight or early Thursday morning before easing slowly through Thursday.
Big, slow moving high in the Tasman next week will slowly migrate towards New Zealand, holding a broad fetch of E’ly winds across the Coral Sea, South Pacific slot and into the Northern Tasman.
In between, a trough and cold front are currently approaching Tasmania, expected to bring a vigorous W/SW-SW flow o/night into tomorrow, bringing a spike in short range S swell short term.
