Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday June 27th)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast, Friday next week exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized mix of SW groundswells building tomorrow, strongest late and into Sun AM, easing
• NW winds tomorrow, W/NW Sun AM ahead of a weak SW change into the PM
• Moderate sized, reinforcing S/SW swell Mon with fresh S'ly winds
• Smaller Tue AM ahead of a small-moderate, inconsistent SW groundswell for the PM
• Variable tending SE winds later AM Tue, freshening into the PM
• Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell Wed with mod-fresh S/SE-S winds
• Easing mix of groundswell and windswell Thu with variable winds and weak sea breezes
• Smaller Fri with N winds

Recap

Wednesday’s mix of choppy, building surf eased and improved through yesterday across the Surf Coast with lumpy but fun 3-5ft waves through the morning across the magnets, going a touch bumpy through the afternoon before glassing off later and still coming in at 4ft.

This morning we’ve got a bit less size but cleaner conditions with more north in the wind, and the exposed beaches to the east should improve this afternoon as winds tend more variable. Our reinforcing S/SW swell is also providing plenty of consistent, good quality waves.

This week and next (Jun 28 - Jul 4)

Looking at the weekend ahead and we’ve got our two, successive pulses of SW groundswell due, generated by a strong, slow moving low that tracked east-southeast towards the polar shelf from the southern Indian Ocean.

Pre-frontal W/NW-NW gale to severe-gales have generated an initial increase in SW groundswell for tomorrow morning, while a stronger and more expansive fetch of severe-gale to sub-storm-force winds have generated a larger kick later in the day and Sunday morning.

We should see the Surf Coast coming in at 3-4ft tomorrow morning with 6ft sets to the east, with the stronger groundswell kicking more towards 5ft later (6ft to possibly 8ft to the east), easing back from 4-5ft and 6ft to possibly 8ft respectively west and east of Melbourne Sunday morning.

Local winds look best for the Surf Coast with a persistent NW breeze due through tomorrow, while a trough and onshore change due Monday has been shifted forward to Sunday afternoon, with morning W/NW winds due, shifting weak SW into the early afternoon. 

With this, no major damage is expected after lunch, though fresher S’ly winds Monday as the trough moves through proper will create poor conditions.

Into Tuesday morning we may see a slight reprieve from the onshore blow, with variable W/NW winds likely before shifting SE and freshening again later morning.

Swell wise, we’ll be in between pulses, with a reinforcing S/SW swell for Monday morning from a trailing fetch of strong W/SW winds behind the weekend’s swell generator due to be easing back from 3ft or so on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

A new pulse of moderate sized SW groundswell is due after lunch Tuesday, just when winds start to freshen, with a secondary stronger pulse expected Wednesday.

These swells will be generated by back to back fetches along the polar shelf, swinging in from the Heard Island region over the coming days. An initial pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales will be followed by stronger but tighter, gale to severe-gale W’ly winds.

The strongest pulse of size for Wednesday should come in at an inconsistent 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east but with moderate to fresh S/SE tending S’ly winds.

We’re likely to see winds back off on Thursday as the low in the Tasman Sea, linked to the run of onshore winds starts to weaken, and size wise we’ll be looking at an easing mix of localised S’ly windswell and inconsistent SW groundswell.

Friday is more reliable in regards to a N’ly offshore with smaller, easing surf.

Longer term we’ve got a good run of offshore winds but smaller, flukier west swells so make the most of the coming days. Have a great weekend!