Large swells for the coming days, though with north winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st May)

Best Days: Selected spots tomorrow and Sunday

Recap

Much smaller surf yesterday with the swell dropping away from 3-4ft across the South West, tiny in Perth and Mandurah. Conditions were favourable all day though and this morning we've got stronger offshore winds and a building mix of long-period W/SW and SW groundswells.

Perth and Mandurah were tiny with 3-5ft waves in the South West, but we should see the swell building through the day. 6ft+ sets are no showing in the South West and we should see the swell magnets reaching 8-10ft, 3ft across Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. While a little slow going this morning keep an eye on the cams for this new energy.

Sets showing and even bigger now..

This weekend and next week (May 2 - 8)

It's worth noting from the get go that the forecast models are under-representing the coming days of long-period swell with much more size than shown due across all coasts.

This afternoon's strong mix of new long-period groundswells are due to peak overnight, easing back tomorrow from 6-8ft tomorrow, 2ft to occasionally 3ft in Mandurah and 2ft+ across Perth. The possible late arrival of the swell today could help provide a bit more size on the coast into tomorrow, though we'll see.

Winds will be similar though slightly weaker than today, fresh to strong from the E/NE, tending NE through the day and then easing while tending N/NE, more variable to the north.

We then look at our larger and better W/SW groundswell due into Sunday and Monday.

The back to back mid-latitude storms linked to these swells have already come and gone firing up south-east of Heard Island and projecting east-northeast to a position above Heard Island. The first and strongest generated a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds (shown on ASCAT below), while a secondary slightly weaker but broader front quickly fired up on its tail and pre-activated sea state.

Large, long-period surf should build through Sunday from the first low, likely around 6t+ at dawn across the South West but building to 10-12ft on the swell magnets, 3-4ft in Mandurah and 3ft across Perth.

The secondary swell will slow the easing trend into Monday with sets dropping from 10ft+, 3ft+ and 3ft respectively.

Looking at the local winds and unfortunately we'll be dealing with a fresh N/NE breeze from dawn Sunday swinging more N'ly into the afternoon and then N/NW later. Monday will then be poor with fresh to strong NW tending W/NW winds and then strong W/SW into the afternoon as a mid-latitude front pushes in from the west.

This will be the first in a series of not overly strong but annoying mid-latitude lows as they bring onshore winds with Wednesday looking to be large and stormy from the W/SW.

Later week we may see a stronger polar frontal progression firing up through our southern swell window generating a good swell for next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 1 May 2020 at 12:46pm

Solid sets..

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 1 May 2020 at 5:12pm

Its good on Sth Coast too....looks like for next couple of days too. Yew!

Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green Saturday, 2 May 2020 at 8:34am

It got to about 6ft if that around Margs yesty. Back to 4ft this morn.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 2 May 2020 at 8:59am

4ft?


thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 2 May 2020 at 9:09am

Actually, here's a better set that just rolled through.




Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green Saturday, 2 May 2020 at 9:49am

Woops! Yep sorry long lulls but you guys called it. Pretty decent sets.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 2 May 2020 at 9:58am

Phew.

redclement.'s picture
redclement.'s picture
redclement. Saturday, 2 May 2020 at 10:23am

Ideal winds for the south coast Mr blue diamond. Looking good up here in the north too with a bit of Westerly swell direction. Its finally cooled off too.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 2 May 2020 at 3:40pm

Fine winds indeed, after a summer of brutal Easterlies, we've got a week or so of medium to large swell and Northerlies so definitely got a spring in the step. Stoked the swells finally starting to head North and a reprieve in the weather for you crew. Enjoy!

redclement.'s picture
redclement.'s picture
redclement. Sunday, 3 May 2020 at 2:32pm

Excellent surf today! Consistent too.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 3 May 2020 at 7:08pm

Stoked!