Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday April 11th)

Best Days: Selected spots tomorrow from mid-late AM, Sunday, Tuesday on the beaches, Wednesday on the beaches, Thursday on the beaches, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW swell building this afternoon with SW tending S/SE winds
• Moderate + sized SW swell tomorrow with E/NE tending N/NE-NE winds through tomorrow morning ahead of sea breezes
• Easing swell Sun with fresh local offshore winds (N/NW Surf Coast, N/NE to the east) ahead of a late S/SW change
• Inconsistent SW groundswell Mon with light E/SE-SE winds, freshening
• Moderate sized, S/SW groundswell building Tue PM, easing Wed, with a smaller reinforcing pulse for Thu
• Fresh E/NE-NE winds Tue ahead of late sea breezes, N-N/NE Wed AM, NE into the PM
• Local offshore winds Thu AM, shifting S/SE into the PM
• Moderate sized W/SW swell Fri with variable winds ahead of sea breezes

Recap

Our new pulse of S/SW groundswell filled in nicely through the day yesterday with the morning starting in the 2-3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4ft or so to the east before pulsing nicely to 4ft and 6ft respectively. Conditions were great all day with local offshore winds, while this morning we’ve got a slight drop in swell and shift in winds back to the west.

This is ahead of trough and SW tending S/SE change through the day, with the early being the pick of it.

Great surf yesterday afternoon

This weekend and next week (Apr 12 - 18)

Today’s trough and onshore change is linked to a healthy Southern Ocean frontal progression that moved through our swell window the last couple of days, with it now moving east and south of Tasmania today.

Fetches of strong to gale-force W’ly winds have generated a moderate sized W/SW swell for this afternoon followed by a stronger and larger SW pulse tomorrow.

The Surf Coast should come in around 4-5ft at the peak tomorrow with 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets to the east, easing slowly through Sunday from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east.

Local winds will improve through tomorrow morning shifting from the E/NE to N/NE-NE as it progresses, creating improving conditions to the east, though with the size of the swell options will be limited.

Sunday is the pick though with fresh local offshore winds due nearly all day (N/NW on the Surf Coast and N/NE to the east) with a late afternoon S/SW change due as a trough moves in from the west.

Unfortunately Monday looks average with lingering E/SE-SE winds in the wake of Sunday evening’s change along with an inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell generated south-east of South Africa earlier this week.

No major size is due from this source, with Tuesday and Wednesday coming in a bit better as winds shift E/NE-NE on the former and N/NE on the latter.

Swell wise, a strong but poorly aimed fetch of gale-force W/NW-NW winds projecting towards the polar shelf through Sunday and Monday should produce a fun S/SW groundswell for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, followed by a slightly smaller pulse Thursday.

The Surf Coast should kick to 3ft+ through the afternoon Tuesday, mixed in with some small localised SE windswell with 4-5ft+ sets to the east, easing back Wednesday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively.

Thursday’s swell looks a bit smaller and more to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east under local offshore winds ahead of relatively weak sea breezes.

Now, moving into the Easter Long Weekend, we're set to see a good polar frontal system projecting up and under Western Australia early next week, generating a moderate sized though inconsistent W/SW swell for Friday.

The size looks to come in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east and local winds are tricky thanks to a trough lingering in the region, possibly bringing variable breezes ahead of the sea breeze.

Easing surf with a freshening N-N/NE wind is likely Saturday but we’ll review this on Monday as the models diverge a little.

Longer term the outlook is a little wishy washy into early the following week with some better frontal activity likely later next week. Have a great weekend!