Tricky outlook ahead with flukey winds and swells

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday March 27th)

Best Days: Exposed beaches from mid-late morning Friday, Saturday morning, Sunday morning on the beaches, next Friday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing surf tomorrow with fresh S/SE winds
  • Smaller Fri AM, ahead of some inconsistent SW swell later in the day, easing Sat
  • E/SE tending E/NE-NE winds during Fri, ahead of mid-PM sea breezes
  • Better, SW groundswell building Sat PM with morning variable winds, tending S late AM, freshening from the S/SE into the PM
  • Easing SW groundswell Sun with E/NE-NE tending fresh SE winds
  • Small to tiny Mon with E/SE tending S/SE winds
  • Strengthening SE winds Tue, S/SW Wed
  • Small-moderate sized, mid-period SW swell for Wed/Thu/Fri
  • Gusty S/SW winds Thu, NW Fri


Monday afternoon's large pulse of SW-S/SW groundswell peaked overnight and started easing through tomorrow but with excellent conditions under a light offshore breeze across the Surf Coast. Sets to 5-6ft were seen, dropping through the day as winds remained favourable until mid-afternoon.

Today, the swell is smaller and lumpy with early light winds on the Surf Coast that will freshen from the S/SW by later morning.

This week and weekend (Mar 28 - 31)

Today's freshening S/SW winds will thanks to a trough moving in from the west, followed by high pressure, swinging winds S/SE tomorrow morning (remaining fresh) with a further drop in size.

This will be a lay day.

Friday still looks OK for the beaches but early won't be great with pre-dawn E/SE winds due to slowly improve and shift E/NE-NE through the morning, creating improving conditions before S/SE sea breezes kick in mid-afternoon.

An inconsistent mid-period SW swell should arrive through the day, kicking into the late afternoon and peaking overnight.

The source is a distant fetch of strong W/NW winds to the east of the Heard Island region the last couple of days, with inconsistent 2ft to possibly 3ft sets due on the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east later Friday, easing from a similar size on Saturday morning.

Also in the mix Saturday will be some flukey SW swell spreading off a fetch of gale-force NW winds projecting south-east towards the polar shelf. The orientation looks a little better than Monday, with inconsistent 2-3ft sets likely into Saturday afternoon, easing from a similar size Sunday morning.

The possible small pulse of S/SW groundswell for Sunday afternoon now looks off the cards with the Surf Coast due to become small to tiny Monday, with grovel waves to the east.

Looking at the local winds and early variable winds are due to shift S'ly later morning and then freshen from the S/SE into the afternoon Saturday, E/NE tending NE on Sunday ahead of fresh SE sea breezes.

Monday now looks like a lay day as a deepening inland trough starts to drift south, bringing E/SE-S/SE winds along with that low point in swell.

As touched on in Monday's update, strengthening polar frontal activity to the south and south-west of the country from Sunday through next week should generate building levels of from mid-week, larger into next weekend.

The initial activity looks generally weak, with small-moderate sized levels of mid-period SW swell due into Wednesday to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast through the afternoon, 4-5ft to the east.

Unfortunately it looks like the trough will strengthen further during next week, forming into a low, bringing strengthening SE winds Tuesday and then strong S/SW winds Wednesday, kicking up some poor, localised windswell. It looks like winds will remain poor Thursday, possibly swinging back NW on Friday morning with surf in the 3ft range on the Surf Coast.

More on this tricky outlook Friday.


Thanos S's picture
Thanos S's picture
Thanos S Wednesday, 27 Mar 2024 at 11:10am

Is it true comp is getting moved to tulla ?

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Wednesday, 27 Mar 2024 at 12:14pm

Geez. Shite forey for the comp.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Wednesday, 27 Mar 2024 at 12:24pm

Sure is . Where to with this forecast Craig?

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Wednesday, 27 Mar 2024 at 2:11pm

Maybe not pretty, but still some contestable windows