Smaller swells with tricky, deteriorating winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday November 20th)

Best Days: This morning, tomorrow morning PI, Friday and Saturday mornings to the east

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing swell tomorrow with mod-fresh S/SW winds to the west, lighter to the east in the AM and variable across PI. Winds increasing during the day
  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell for later tomorrow, peaking Wed, easing a touch Thu with a secondary slightly smaller pulse Fri
  • Fresh S/SW winds Wed, strengthening into the PM, fresh SE tending strong S/SE Thu
  • Strong E/SE winds on Fri, possibly easing and tending lighter E for a period in the AM to the east
  • Small-mod sized SE windswell for Thu PM and Fri, easing Sat
  • Easing surf Sat with light E-E/NE tending SE winds
  • New SW groundswell Sun with strong S/SE winds


The weekend offered good to excellent surf across the state with light winds and a fun 2-3ft of swell across the Surf Coast Saturday, a little lumpy and to 4ft to the east. Our larger, stronger, long-period S/SW groundswell due from the ‘bombing’ low arrived on cue yesterday with conditions coming in a little better than expected thanks to lightish onshore winds Saturday afternoon.

The Surf Coast provided excellent glassy 5-6ft sets in the morning, building more to 6-8ft through the day with solid 6-8ft sets to the east during the morning. Selected spots fired and conditions remained favourable most of the day even with weak sea breezes.

This morning the swell is on the ease and not quite as perfect thanks to a lingering southerly wind, but the lines are still strong enough to provide quality surf for the keen.

Strong, clean swell yesterday morning

This week and weekend (Nov 21 - 26)

Make the most of this morning’s favourable conditions on the Surf Coast as from tomorrow winds will be fresher onshore and the surf not as clean and enjoyable.

A moderate to fresh S/SW’ly is due from dawn tomorrow, weaker across the Mornington Peninsula and more variable across Phillip Island along with smaller 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4ft waves to the east. Winds will strengthen from the S/SE through the day as a new mid-period SW swell arrives later and peaks Wednesday morning.

The source of this swell is a small, weak trailing front passing under the country today, behind the ‘bombing’ low linked to yesterday’s swell and it should boost the Surf Coast back to 3ft on the sets, with 4-5ft waves to the east, a little smaller into Thursday.

Another weak front behind this should maintain 2ft to possibly 3ft waves on the Surf Coast Friday with 4ft surf to the east, but the main issue will be the local winds.

A fresh S/SW’ly is due to persist on Wednesday (strengthening into the afternoon), shifting S/SE-SE and strengthening on Thursday thanks to a small surface trough to our east, squeezing against a high sliding in from the west.

As the high moves further east on Friday we’ll see winds E/SE but remain strong, possibly tending E’ly for a period on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island but we’ll confirm this Wednesday.

Swell wise, the smaller mid-period SW energy will be mixed in with some localised SE windswell and winds may tend more E-E/NE on Saturday morning, but only temporarily before reverting back to the S/SE Sunday and with strength. This looks to spoilt another quality S/SW groundswell that’s due on Sunday, generated by a strong low on the polar shelf.

Unfortunately poor winds look to persist into next week as another strong high takes the place of the one sliding east on the weekend, but we’ll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.


WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol Tuesday, 21 Nov 2023 at 1:15pm

That dot in the lineup, third pixel from the right, I know him. He's having a sickie and gone surfing when he should be working. Ah busted! Thank Christ for the Swellnet surveillance cam at Winki.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Tuesday, 21 Nov 2023 at 1:39pm

Da Mann be watching us watching you. I think I need a new doctor. What a joke.

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Tuesday, 21 Nov 2023 at 3:24pm

Southerly winds continue.... :-(