Much better odds for surf as a strong SE surge builds up the coast Fri, with a broad SE fetch in the Coral Sea over next weekend and into early next week. That should see rideable surf develop Fri and hold in the fun-sized range into the weekend and potentially early week after.
The fetch is very broad, basically the entire lower Tasman covered in gales under current modelling. That suggests plenty of size from the S-S/SE Thurs, persisting into Fri.
The coming period remains lack lustre swell wise with early next week looking the best ahead of next weekend.
The potential TC is unlikely to be a swell source but there is one modelled track where it briefly pushes into the swell window between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, offering some potential for NE-E/NE swell Thurs/Fri. Very low confidence at the moment and likely to be swamped by dominant S-S/SE swell in the event it does occur. We’ll revisit on Mon.
No great change to the weekend f/cast. An approaching complex trough, front and low complex will see freshening N/NE-NE winds through Sat with only a brief period of light NW winds inshore early.
Incoming troughs and lows will bring shifting winds and swells, onshore when biggest, cleanest when easing.
We've got an average period with poor conditions at the peak of the coming weak swells, small when winds go back offshore.
Small bump in swell for the weekend, then slow again but with weak to non-existent trades in areas.
The synoptic set-up looks quite unseasonal at the moment with a 1031 hPa high drifting over NSW and a 1007 hPa low slow moving in the Tasman west of the North Island. The SE surge from this high has generated some small, scrappy surf. Get in quickly for this swell, we’ll see some more small surf tomorrow then easing swells for Fri and back to flat for the weekend.
Nothing much of interest in the short run. A deep polar low sends some small long period S swell wrap to the Coast tomorrow.
