Fun surf Sunday/Monday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th December)

Best Days: Today ahead of the change into the mid afternoon, Sunday ahead of sea breezes, Monday (morning Surf Coast, beaches all day), beaches late next week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small mid-period SW swell tomorrow with strengthening W/NW tending W-W/SW winds later
  • Moderate sized mid-period W/SW swell Sun with NW tending SE winds (going variable for a period early PM to the east)
  • Easing swell Mon with increasing N/NE-NE tending NE winds, light N/NW for a period to the west
  • Moderate + sized W/SW-SW groundswell building Tue, peaking in the PM, easing Wed
  • Strong SW winds arriving just before dawn Tue, gusty S/SW Wed, tending S/SE later
  • SE winds Thu with easing surf


Yesterday was clean but small in the morning across the Surf Coast with a low point in swell, while into the afternoon conditions became wind affected, with a new pulse of swell only showing later as conditions remained favourable in protected spots.

This morning looks better with easing, fun 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4ft to the east. Winds will remain favourable ahead of a mid-afternoon S/SW-SW change with strength.

This weekend and next week (Dec 16 - 22)

The weekend ahead looks fun, though Sunday will be the best with tomorrow coming in small and weak with mid-period SW energy to 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to occasionally 4ft to the east with a strengthening W/NW breeze, tending W and then W/SW late.

On Sunday, some better sized mid-period energy is due, generated by a healthy frontal system that's currently moving in under the Bight.

This is a bit stronger than the models have forecast earlier in the week, but west in nature. The Surf Coast should peak to 3ft+ with the odd bigger one on the magnets, 5-6ft to the east.

Winds look great for the Surf Coast and light NW before SE sea breezes kick in, with improving conditions to the east as winds go variable early afternoon ahead of the sea breeze.

A temporary drop in size should be seen Monday and winds look to shift locally offshore, N/NE-NE to the east and N/NW to the west, with strengthening NE winds through the afternoon as a trough approaches.

Our follow up stronger W/SW-SW groundswell for Tuesday is on track, with the polar low linked to it, forming around the Heard Island yesterday and now generating a tight fetch of severe-gale to at times storm-force W/SW winds. The low will continue east-northeast while weakening this evening and more so tomorrow while pushing under the country.

The swell should arrive through the morning and build to a peak into the afternoon with no change to the expected size.

4-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with 6-8ft waves to the east but unfortunately with poor, strong SW winds as the trough moves through just before dawn.

Fresh and gusty S/SW winds look to persist Wednesday as the swell eases, shifting S/SE through the day and then hanging from the SE on Thursday.

There's a chance for E'ly winds to the east on Thursday morning but we'll have to review this Monday. So unfortunately the whole swell looks to go to waste.

Friday might see winds shift more E/NE but with a small mix of background SW swell and SE windswell. More on this Monday. Make the most of the coming days of fun surf and have a great weekend!