Plenty of options over the coming days ahead of stormy surf mid-next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 13th December)

Best Days: Today ahead of the late change, tomorrow afternoon with the new swell Surf Coast, Friday morning Surf Coast, Sunday ahead of sea breezes, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Smaller Thu AM, with a new S/SW groundswell building into the mid-late PM with fresh W/NW-W winds ahead of a late W/SW-SW change
  • Easing surf Fri with W/NW tending S/SW winds late AM
  • Small mid-period SW swell Sat with W/NW-W winds
  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Sun with N/NW-NW tending variable winds ahead of SE sea breezes
  • Easing swell Mon with N tending SW winds
  • Fresh to strong S/SE winds Tue with a moderate sized + building W/SW-SW groundswell, peaking late, easing Wed with strong SE winds
  • Stormy SE windswell Wed


Our large, strong S/SW groundswell filled in yesterday under less than ideal but workable winds, building to the 6ft range on the biggest sets across the Surf Coast through the morning and 6-8ft to the east.

The swell is on the ease this morning but cleaner across all locations, dropping from 4ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east. Winds are due to remain favourable east of Melbourne until the evening when a S/SW change arrives, with it moving in late afternoon on the Surf Coast.

This week and weekend (Dec 14 - 17)

The current S/SW groundswell will continue to ease off through tomorrow as winds shift W/NW during the morning, favouring the Surf Coast. There's only due to be a small, easing 2ft wave on the magnets, bumpy to the east and to 3ft to occasionally 4ft.

Into the afternoon, some new SW groundswell is due to arrive, and winds look to hold from the W until the evening, then shifting SW.

The source of this groundswell was a tight, short-lived low firing up under the country yesterday, producing a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds with a couple of storm-force barbs registered.

This is a little stronger than forecast and with this we should see a fun spike to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast late afternoon, 4-5ft to the east, though easing quickly Friday from 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets (mostly 2ft+) and 3-4ft to the east.

A morning W/NW-NW wind will create clean conditions on the Surf Coast again, shifting S/SW late morning.

Saturday looks generally smaller with a weak, mid-period SW swell and gusty W/NW-W winds, but moving into Sunday we should see a bit more size to the mid-period energy as conditions remain favourable with a N/NW-NW offshore, tending variable ahead of SE sea breezes.

The source of the mid-period energy is weak, though broad back to back fronts projecting towards the state over the coming days, bringing the run of westerly winds.

Sunday should come in at 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east, easing back through Monday with great local offshore winds ahead of sea breezes.

Following the weak frontal activity a much better swell producer is due to fire up, that being a strong polar low forming in the Heard Island region tomorrow afternoon/evening.

A great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds will project east-northeast though weakening on approach under the country on the weekend.

This will produce a moderate sized + W/SW-SW groundswell that should build through Tuesday and peak late in the day/overnight.

Strong sets to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east but winds will deteriorate as a trough brings a change Monday evening, with fresh to strong S/SE winds following into Tuesday, strong E/SE-SE on Wednesday which will kick up a localised stormy SE windswell.

There's no improvement on the cards right now to the end of the week so make the msot of the coming days of fun waves.


Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 11:43am's,close%20enough%20to%20be%20struck.

“The other "30" applies to when the storm passes. More than half of all lightning deaths in Australia occur after the storm has passed. Allowing 30 minutes to elapse ensures the danger has passed.“

Lightning hangs round after a storm passess? Isn’t lightning the storm?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 11:50am

Most see the heavy rain/hail and storm with the bulk of lightning move through and think it's done but there's still instability in the wake of the main energy. Not as consistent or as common but I've seen this plenty of times myself.

Maxwilliams29's picture
Maxwilliams29's picture
Maxwilliams29 Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 1:18pm
Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 1:50pm

Muppets. I can't get passed the 'privacy' angle they are going with. Give it a farkin' rest

Rusty Roof's picture
Rusty Roof's picture
Rusty Roof Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 4:52pm

Couldn't agree more.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 8:52pm

Yeah that’s a ridiculous argument.

Tiny little stick figures.

paddlepoplion's picture
paddlepoplion's picture
paddlepoplion Friday, 15 Dec 2023 at 6:18pm

There's no such thing has as a legal right to privacy when you are in a public place in Australia so these people certainly haven't done any legal due diligence at all. Your only legal right to privacy in Australia at common law is when you are in your bathroom or bedroom unbelievable as that sounds. Thats it. Anywhere else you can be legally photographed including inside your house as long as it is not your bathroom or bedroom. Notwithstanding any new statutory laws in the last five years, which I'm pretty sure there hasn't been, thats it.

Pete7's picture
Pete7's picture
Pete7 Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 3:31pm

For anyone who surfs winki regularly,do you think the cam has increased the crowd by much? Everywhere seems packed these days cams or not

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 4:22pm

Hard to say for sure. Considering it’s always busy there as soon as there’s a bump in the ocean, I rarely surf it. As soon as it’s Ok to good it’s minimum 25-30 in the water. I use the cam as a marker for other spots that could be working based on how it looks there, spots that’ll have significantly less crew on it

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 10:46pm

No way, if anything it deters from surfing winki.....picture this you know it'll be pumping, grab the car keys, load the boards, flick on the winki cam to see 30 or 40 out = decide to surf elsewhere.

Much better than previously just driving to winki thinking youll take your chances....seeing the crowd but then realising by the time you actually drive somewhere else for a wave you've wasted at least 10 minutes of your short surf window...and just paddling out anyway.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 14 Dec 2023 at 6:00am


GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Friday, 15 Dec 2023 at 8:41am

It wasn’t all that long ago that there was a petition to stop a new viewing platform and toilet block at Bells to cater for the (then and likely again in the future) large number of tourist buses travelling down the GOR on a daily basis.

The arguments against that development are equally valid today and this cam could be seen as the thin edge of the wedge the next time the Council is all in with developers.

Or it could just increase the tourist bus traffic as it could be accessed by the ‘onboard’ guide hurtling down the Geelong Rd to determine whether to call in at Winki/Bells or to stop at Lorne for the first ciggie and piss break.

Locals certainly don’t need it

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 15 Dec 2023 at 10:28am

“Locals certainly don’t need it” is an interesting take. I’ve only been down this way for 3 years but never when I was back up in Melb did I check out a surf cam and then decide to head down the coast for a surf. I was either going or I wasn’t based on forecast, never a cam.

Whereas now living down here, I use the cams to help me pick where and when I’m paddling out, and it’s rarely the same spot as the cam I’m checking.

If locals don’t need it, who does?

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 Wednesday, 13 Dec 2023 at 4:04pm

Yeah the whole privacy argument holds no water and you don’t need a camera to know when it’s firing

joeyjojo's picture
joeyjojo's picture
joeyjojo Friday, 15 Dec 2023 at 8:53am

What happened to the Lennox Heads cam in

-devil emoji-


-another devil emoji-


pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Friday, 15 Dec 2023 at 9:37am

or the sacred wye river cam (didn't last long)