Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 13th December)

Best Days: Today ahead of the late change, tomorrow afternoon with the new swell Surf Coast, Friday morning Surf Coast, Sunday ahead of sea breezes, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller Thu AM, with a new S/SW groundswell building into the mid-late PM with fresh W/NW-W winds ahead of a late W/SW-SW change
• Easing surf Fri with W/NW tending S/SW winds late AM
• Small mid-period SW swell Sat with W/NW-W winds
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Sun with N/NW-NW tending variable winds ahead of SE sea breezes
• Easing swell Mon with N tending SW winds
• Fresh to strong S/SE winds Tue with a moderate sized + building W/SW-SW groundswell, peaking late, easing Wed with strong SE winds
• Stormy SE windswell Wed

Recap

Our large, strong S/SW groundswell filled in yesterday under less than ideal but workable winds, building to the 6ft range on the biggest sets across the Surf Coast through the morning and 6-8ft to the east.

The swell is on the ease this morning but cleaner across all locations, dropping from 4ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east. Winds are due to remain favourable east of Melbourne until the evening when a S/SW change arrives, with it moving in late afternoon on the Surf Coast.

This week and weekend (Dec 14 - 17)

The current S/SW groundswell will continue to ease off through tomorrow as winds shift W/NW during the morning, favouring the Surf Coast. There's only due to be a small, easing 2ft wave on the magnets, bumpy to the east and to 3ft to occasionally 4ft.

Into the afternoon, some new SW groundswell is due to arrive, and winds look to hold from the W until the evening, then shifting SW.

The source of this groundswell was a tight, short-lived low firing up under the country yesterday, producing a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds with a couple of storm-force barbs registered.

This is a little stronger than forecast and with this we should see a fun spike to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast late afternoon, 4-5ft to the east, though easing quickly Friday from 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets (mostly 2ft+) and 3-4ft to the east.

A morning W/NW-NW wind will create clean conditions on the Surf Coast again, shifting S/SW late morning.

Saturday looks generally smaller with a weak, mid-period SW swell and gusty W/NW-W winds, but moving into Sunday we should see a bit more size to the mid-period energy as conditions remain favourable with a N/NW-NW offshore, tending variable ahead of SE sea breezes.

The source of the mid-period energy is weak, though broad back to back fronts projecting towards the state over the coming days, bringing the run of westerly winds.

Sunday should come in at 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east, easing back through Monday with great local offshore winds ahead of sea breezes.

Following the weak frontal activity a much better swell producer is due to fire up, that being a strong polar low forming in the Heard Island region tomorrow afternoon/evening.

A great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds will project east-northeast though weakening on approach under the country on the weekend.

This will produce a moderate sized + W/SW-SW groundswell that should build through Tuesday and peak late in the day/overnight.

Strong sets to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east but winds will deteriorate as a trough brings a change Monday evening, with fresh to strong S/SE winds following into Tuesday, strong E/SE-SE on Wednesday which will kick up a localised stormy SE windswell.

There's no improvement on the cards right now to the end of the week so make the msot of the coming days of fun waves.