In the South Pacific we have a retrograding trough of low pressure along a tradewind band and finally,the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) is in full swing and a tropical low is expected to bud off the end of the monsoon trough into and over the weekend, with a reasonable likelihood of cyclogenesis into next week. Still plenty of uncertainty there over intensity, track and surf potential but at least some model runs are starting to look favourable.

In the South Pacific we have a retrograding trough of low pressure along a tradewind band and finally, the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) is in full swing and a tropical low is expected to bud off the end of the monsoon trough into and over the weekend, with a reasonable likelihood of cyclogenesis into next week.

A stalling low will produce plenty of size out of the south over the coming days with workable windows down South.

Slow run for all locations this period.