South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Mar 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong trade swell easing Thurs onwards
• Var. winds Thurs morning tending E/NE-NE in the a’noon
• Small south swell for Northern NSW on Thurs, easing Fri
• Resumption of fresh SE winds for the weekend with a building trade swell, though more S/SE tending SE in direction at first
• Secondary S and S/SE swells in the mix this weekend (mainly Northern NSW), easing through Mon
• Stacks of trade swell for next week, likely getting bigger in the second half of the week depending on low pressure systems on the trade-wind fetch
• Mix of S and SE groundswell sources for next week too, favouring NENSW

Recap

Full throated E’ly swells in the 6-8ft range yesterday with some bigger 8-10ft surf reported from Tweed-Byron under SE winds. It was a day for the Points with some great, albeit challenging surf (wash-throughs galore) on offer for the experienced. Today has seen winds settle down a little although still favouring the Points and a small step down in size and energy to the 6ft range on the Points. Still too much energy for the open beaches with a few rare exceptions. 

Deep tube-rides in amongst the wash-throughs if you could hold position on the bank

This week (Mar 13 - 15)

We’ve still got a broad trade wind flow in the Coral Sea, extending out into the South Pacific and anchored head and tail by low pressure along the monsoon trough. That’s producing heavy swells in the sub-tropics (full blown Point surf equivalent to cyclone swells) although we’ll now see a slow easing trend into the end of the week.

In the short run we’ll a small reduction in size tomorrow, down to 5-6ft with light morning winds south of Ballina, tending more E/NE north of the border, N/NE-NE south of Byron through the a’noon. Definitely worth a look around at some of the beachbreaks tomorrow to see if any are handling the size and offering up some chunky lefts.

Strong S’ly tending SE winds Fri as a new high pressure ridge builds in and gets reinforced by a trough on the leading edge of the change and a lingering trough off the Fraser Coast. That SE surge will see some short range swell build in later Fri (more on Sat) with easing E’ly swells still offering up 3-4ft surf on an easing trend. It might be a lay day if you’ve been surfing hard this week, otherwise, worth looking around the Points on the lower tides for some more manageable peelers than what we’ve seen this week. There will be some small S swell in the water later Thurs into Fri but apart form some small sidewinding energy at some regional Points it won’t be a noticeable signal among the prevailing “noise”.

This weekend (Mar 16 - 17)

No great change to the weekend f/cast.

Winds still look mod/fresh from the SE as the next strong high moves into the Tasman and maintains a firm ridge up the sub-tropical coast. That suggests Points only at least for Sat. Sun looks to see coastal pressure gradient ease a notch south of Ballina so we may see some morning land breezes develop although that is not set in stone.

Surf-wise the SE surge builds across the Coral Sea rapidly Fri into Sat with wave heights building from 2-3ft to 3-5ft across the SE Qld and Northern NSW points from Saturday into Sunday, bigger and unrulier across open beaches. You’ll find smaller options at the more sheltered N facing points due to the SE swell direction.

Moderate S swells will add 3-4ft of size to regional Points in NENSW on Sun although keep expectations low for quality due to the SE winds

 Ben mentioned an ice shelf fetch from a slow moving low later this weekend, there’s also a current ice shelf fetch set-up with ASCAT passes showing strong gale to storm force winds aimed back into the Tasman Sea. That will add energy to frontal S swells  with some longer lined inconsistent  3ft sets late Sun into Mon.

Next week (Mar 18 onwards)

No major changes to the broad scale pattern offered in Mondays assessment. High pressure builds a tradeewind fetch and we’ll see low pressure centres drift down and tighten pressure gradients on the northern flank of the fetch, more notably later next week.

Sundays mix of  SE-E and S swells persists into Mon with 3-4ft surf at most beaches (slightly smaller on the Points) under light SE winds which will tend more E’ly with S’ly latitude.

This initial burst in E/SE swell from a more local source looks to persist into Tues at moderate levels (3-4ft or so) before the fetch migrates E’wards and rebuilds in the South Pacific slot between the North Island and New Caledonia. 

We should see surf then start to muscle up from Wed as the trade-wind band broadens and low-pressure sits down on it tightening pressure gradients. At this stage it’s looking smaller than this week, likely up into the 4-5ft range from Wed into the the week. That may need some fine-tuning up or down depending on how low pressure behaves during this time frame. Winds looks to tend more E-NE from Thurs, possibly with morning land breezes, although there is some uncertainty around that.

The uncertainty rests on a potential trough moving into Southern NSW.

GFS has the trough bringing a variable tending S’ly flow later Thurs into Fri, with the trough deepening as a long angled trough line through the Tasman and generating some S-S/SE swell into Fri with wind from the same direction. 

ECMWF is far less bullish with  the trough stalling and dissipating during this time frame and not really adding much to the swell sources on hand which will be predominantly E’ly.

As Ben mentioned on Mon we’re also looking at an ice shelf fetch from a semi-stalled low Sun/Mon which sends some S/SE groundswell arriving Fri. Depending on how the trough plays out we could see some good surf from it if S swell magnets open up, or barely notice it under a strong E’ly swell regime and onshore winds.

Looks like a very busy outlook so check back Fri and we’ll see how local winds will co-operate with these swell sources.

Seeya then.