Small options for the keen

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 7th October)

Best Days: Surf Coast for the keen Sunday, Monday exposed beaches, later Tuesday and Wednesday exposed beaches. Thursday exposed beaches (winds pending)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell building tomorrow, easing Sun
  • Slightly better S/SW swell for later tomorrow, easing Sun
  • Mod-fresh W/NW winds tomorrow morning, tending W/SW midday and S/SW-SW into the afternoon
  • W/NW tending light S winds Sun
  • Easing surf Mon with local offshore tending E winds
  • Small Tue with mod-fresh N/NE winds
  • Fun S/SW swell building late Tue, peaking Wed with strengthening N/NE winds, tending N later
  • Inconsistent small W/SW swell Thu with winds unsure at this stage


Wednesday's solid mix of mid-period SW swell and SE windswell backed off rapidly overnight, leaving small, weak 2ft leftovers on the exposed beaches to the east, average and wind affected on the Surf Coast. Selected beaches offered fun waves, cleanest into the afternoon.

Today we've reached our expected low point in swell with clean, glassy conditions across most spots.

Small leftovers at PI yesterday

This weekend and next week (Oct 8 - 14)

Moving into the weekend we'll start to see the size come back up again with a mix of long-range mid-period W/SW swell due to build tomorrow along with a slightly better, more consistent mid-period S/SW swell later in the day, and Sunday morning.

The tight fetch of gales linked to the S/SW swell looks a little weaker now, with it being generated during today to our south-southwest resulting in the swell coming in a little more southerly in direction.

Unfortunately conditions will deteriorate when the most size fills in, with a surface trough that's due to bring a gusty S/SW change early evening today due to linger across the state tomorrow, but we'll see fresh morning W/NW winds tomorrow morning, tending back W/SW around midday and S/SW-SW into the afternoon.

The morning on the Surf Coast only looks to be 2ft max, 3-4ft to the east, with the better swell energy kicking to 2-3ft and 4-5ft respectively later tomorrow with the onshore winds.

Into Sunday we're due to see easing surf from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east, with a light W/NW offshore on the Surf Coast, SW to the east, becoming variable S through the day.

Keep your expectations low but the Surf Coast should have some OK weak waves on the magnets for the keen.

Monday looks better for the beaches but small with local offshore winds and fading 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast, 2-3ft to the east.

The swell looks to bottom out again on Tuesday as a high moves in, bringing moderate to fresh N/NE winds but the exposed beaches look lucky to still be 2ft.

A new pulse of mid-period S/SW swell is due late in the day but more so Wednesday, generated by a weak polar front to the south-southwest of Tasmania Sunday. A slow moving fetch of strong W/SW winds should generate a fun pulse of S/SW swell, coming in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets Wednesday morning and 3-4ft to the east. Winds will still be favourable and offshore from the N/NE, strengthening through the day before tending more N later afternoon and evening.

As the S/SW swell energy eases into Thursday, a new, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell is expected, generated by a slow moving and relatively weak low projecting up towards the south of Western Australia today and through the weekend.

It'll be inconsistent and likely 1-2ft on the Surf Coast but a fun 3ft+ to the east. Winds are a little tricky due to a trough being in the region so we'll have a closer look at this Monday.

Longer term, a slow moving mid-latitude low meandering through the Bight will block our main swell windows, with some possible W'ly swell from its backside next weekend, though with no real size or power. Check back Monday for the latest update. Have a great weekend!


greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Friday, 7 Oct 2022 at 10:39am

A swell blocking low hey. Outrageous.

tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast Saturday, 8 Oct 2022 at 7:07am

Meanwhile, on the east coast next week...