Get those chores done

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th July)

Best Days: No good days

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Tiny surf all weekend with variable winds tomorrow, freshening N/NE Sun
  • Flukey, inconsistent W'ly groundswell for Mon PM, Tue, easing Wed
  • Strong N/NE tending N winds Mon, fresh NW Tue and fresh N/NE Wed
  • Possible increasing swell activity from next weekend


Smaller surf yesterday with easing sets from 2ft on the Surf Coast, tiny today, with 3ft sets to the east, yesterday back to 2ft today.

This weekend and next week (Jul 10 - 16)

Don't expect much in the way of surf at all over the weekend, with a small, reinforcing S/SW swell that's keeping tiny waves hitting the coast today due to fade tomorrow.

Both the Surf Coast and the Mornington Peninsula are due to be tiny tomorrow, but now mostly clean with light, variable winds due all day.

Sunday will remain tiny and a freshening N/NE breeze will favour the beaches.

As touched on in the last couple of updates, there's nothing significant on the cards for the new week, as persistent mid-latitude fronts and lows firing up towards Western Australia, then slowly meandering east towards us not only put a block across our main swell windows, but also generate swells too west in nature to even get into us.

We may see a very inconsistent W'ly groundswell building Monday, offering 2ft to possibly 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula through the afternoon, holding Tuesday and then easing Wednesday, tiny on the Surf Coast.

Winds will be OK but not ideal for the exposed beaches Monday, strong with a N/NE tending N breeze as the mid-latitude low encroaches from the west. This will shift winds NW on Tuesday, but back to the N/NE on Wednesday as we fall in between fronts.

Longer term, the possible uptick in activity late week looks to be slated more for next weekend, with an initial strong cold outbreak and mid-latitude front due to bring some decent sized W/SW swell, followed by backup pulses through the rest of the week. We'll continue to monitor this and provide updates through next week. Have a great weekend!


Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 9 Jul 2021 at 10:39am

How tiny are we talking Craig? 2ft to the east on Sunday?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 9 Jul 2021 at 10:45am

Nah I'd say smaller. 

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 9 Jul 2021 at 10:56am

Yeah but what’s the girth?

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 9 Jul 2021 at 11:04am

No love Craig! Damn. Might have to go for a flat water paddle on the bay.

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol Friday, 9 Jul 2021 at 1:56pm

Time to get my shoulder impingement looked at.