Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 4th May)

Best Days: Selected exposed beaches tomorrow for the patient, Thursday (though windy), Sunday on the Surf Coast

Recap

Our large and windy weekend of surf was just that, with the strongest and largest pulse of S/SW groundswell from the tricky and dynamic low stalling just off the Tassie West Coast filling in Saturday. We saw the Surf Coast push to 8ft on the swell magnets but conditions were raw and average, better in protected spots and poor to the east.

It looks like it didn't quite reach the expected 10ft on the sets, but yesterday morning played out as expected with a drop in size from 5-6ft+ on the Surf Coast swell magnets with more manageable conditions and winds. The Mornington Peninsula was still large and unruly, best in protected spots.

The size and power has continued to drop into this morning but with cleaner conditions on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft sets, 3-4ft to the east.

This week and weekend (May 5 - 10)

All the swell from the weekend's low will be all but gone tomorrow and for the most part it's a slow outlook.

A very inconsistent W/SW groundswell signal is due in the water tomorrow as the S/SW swell fades, but it was generated by a low south-east of Madagascar if our far far swell window.

As a result no major size is expected and there'll be very long waits between sets. The Surf Coast will be 1-2ft with 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets to the east. Winds are now a touch dicey for the beaches and possibly N/NW but light to moderate tomorrow morning, likely tending variable N/NE through the day. Therefore the dawn surf might not be ideal.

Wednesday looks smaller and tiny on the Surf Coast, 2ft+ to the east with fresher N'ly winds.

On Thursday a small spike of long-period SW groundswell is due across both coasts, generated by a small, tight and short-lived low firing up south of WA this evening. It will track unfavourably south-east while generating a fetch of severe-gale W-W/NW winds. While not ideal, the strength of the fetch should produce a good spike in swell to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

The swell will ease into the afternoon and local winds are tricky and not ideal, strong from the N all day. It's still worth trying to get a wave in with this swell though but keep your expectations adjusted.

Friday looks smaller and a strong mid-latitude low moving in from the Bight will weaken while dropping south-east through our swell window on Thursday.

Instead of the gales seen through the Bight, a burst of strong W/SW winds will be generated through our western swell window and should produce a small pulse of W'ly swell for late Friday afternoon but not above 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east with fresh to strong N/NW winds.

A secondary slightly better front moving in behind this initial low should generate a new W/SW swell for later Saturday but more so Sunday, mixed in with a better again SW groundswell that will be produced as the front spawns into a low Friday.

A slow moving fetch of W/SW tending SW gales should produce a fun SW groundswell for Sunday. The Surf Coast is expected to offer 3-4ft waves, 6ft to the east and with favourable and fresh NW winds.

Following this there's still nothing too significant on the cards with small to moderate swells due to continue for the long term. More on this Wednesday though.