Easing surf ahead of a large, windy end to the week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th April)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday morning Surf Coast, keen surfers Friday, Saturday morning

Recap

Saturday started slow but clean across the state with a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell and favourable conditions across all locations. A new SW groundswell kicked into through the day offering stronger, larger and more consistent sets with favourable conditions holding through the afternoon.

This swell eased back into Sunday a touch more than expected but conditions were clean and fun on the Surf Coast through the morning ahead of an onshore change and building mix of swells through the afternoon.

A peak in size has been seen today with a mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswell and mid-period SW swell to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east. Winds should hold out of the NW all day and ease, favouring the Surf Coast and protected spots to the east.

This week and weekend (Apr 28 – May 3)

Today's mix of swells should start to ease this evening, though this trend will be slowed by mid-latitude frontal activity that's still occurring through our swell window today and tomorrow.

Size wise, a slow drop from 3-4ft is expected tomorrow on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft on the sets to the east and with great winds. Moderate to fresh local offshores are expected through the morning (N/NW Surf Coast, N Mornington Peninsula), likely tending more N'ly into the afternoon on the Surf Coast.

A new W/SW groundswell is due to fill in Wednesday and peak through the afternoon, generated by a fetch of W'ly gales under WA today. The morning is likely to be back to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east, kicking back to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the swell magnets and 5-6ft+ respectively.

Winds will be favourable though blowy and gusty out of the N/NE in the morning, shifting more N'ly later morning ahead of a early afternoon SW change, but this will be very short-lived and we may see winds shift back W/NW on the Surf Coast again later afternoon.

Thursday will see the W/SW groundswell ease with a fresh and gusty W/NW breeze, giving into a SW change as a strong mid-latitude low moves in slowly from the west.

The weather models have come into alignment regarding the movement, intensity and timing of this mid-latitude low, with it due to form off the Tassie West Coast Wednesday evening and then slowly move east, stall in our swell window while generating gale-force S/SW-SW winds kicking up a large and stormy S/SW swell.

We'll probably see an afternoon increase in swell Thursday but Friday will see all the size with stormy 4-6ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east but with strong W tending W/SW winds. While protected spots will be clean, the quality of the swell will be low.

The low is forecast to move slowly east through Friday but we'll see a secondary weaker front projecting up and into us Saturday afternoon, resulting in a mix of easing S/SW swell Saturday and weak mid-period SW swell for Sunday.

With this secondary front winds are likely to tip back to the W/NW with easing 4-5ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east on Saturday, easing Sunday from a smaller size with dawn W/NW winds, shifting SW mid-late morning.

It should be noted that there'll also be some inconsistent but good long-period energy in the mix from later Saturday through Monday but smaller than the local swell.

Into early next week it looks like we'll see the size ease as a high moves in from the east bringing S'ly winds Monday, NE Tuesday and fun on the beaches.

Check back here Wednesday and Friday though for any changes to the swell from the low and local conditions.

Comments

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 11:14am

Can't recall breaks being this busy for a long time . Out at dawn today thinking I was first out. 10 there before me. Crazy .

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 11:56am

Hot tip, fresh N - N/NW on the MP tomorrow.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 12:58pm

Looks moderate to fresh N all day, have taken out the N/NE bit.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 12:00pm

Speaking of which - if the olde compass was to measured numerically i.e N being 0, NE 45 etc, would a North wind have a 12.5 degree buffer before recording any West? Hope this makes a sensea!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 12:56pm

Yep.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 6:37pm

Prime example on Sat. Paddled out was clean North, then it swung a bit more to the West. Clearly noticeable in the water, even more so from the lookout up above. South Channel didn’t even twitch.

Ardi100's picture
Ardi100's picture
Ardi100 Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 5:33pm

Lucky I got three waves in the dark, cause I didn't get many after that!

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Monday, 27 Apr 2020 at 6:40pm

Let me out!!. I want to go surfing!!! :-0

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 9:36am

I hope this arvo isn't as slow as last night.....20+ mins for 3 or 4 wave sets.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 9:40am

Good fun this morning and the 'Corona Crowd' down on numbers too.

Actually, scratch that. When I was walking back up the track they were coming thick and fast...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 2:54pm

That wind played nice Nick..

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 6:24pm

still got skunked. sold me candy where I paddled out, waves on the sets but was just too full but I had no patience..

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 3:01pm

Man, it's pumping with no-one out (first three shots a sequence).



Lots of flat spells though:
​​​​​​​

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 6:26pm

theres a reason why no one's out Ben ;)

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:20pm

I don't surf here by myself only because of men in grey suites.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 6:10pm

Question for Craig, comparison of this Tuesday and last Tuesday
Both forecast 3-4ft, last Tuesday more W swell direction? This swell more W/SW?
Anyway, today was bigger and cleaner, didn't seem to full of lulls. Did same spot on same tide and was comparing notes.
Was there a difference in the swell direction between the two Tuesdays as the old forecaster notes alluded to?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 6:33pm

Yeah, last Tuesday's was produced by an unfavourably tracking fetch of W'ly gales from under WA and through the Bight, south-east through Vicco's swell window. Hence the W'ly direction.

Here's the evolution..



Today's easing swell was a mix of long-range SW groundswell from east of the Heard Island region, but more so this mid-range energy from a weaker (compared to last week) but more favourable tracking and projecting system..




velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 8:40pm

Thanks so much Craig for going to that effort! So... what a difference the direction makes. Last Thursday saw an unlikely left really peak up and then send down-the-line clean faces to be raced - really good quality faces with decent bottom turn/top turn space, but today same spot with slightly bigger energy many more closeouts and best made waves were rights off the other side.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:21pm

Ben you realise that pumping left is there one set and completely gone the next. It’s the magic of the MP beaches.
You just caught it at the right time!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:25pm

Worst excuse ever.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:31pm

Come down and ill happily prove it to you

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:43pm

I'm from South Oz.. I've seen more disappearing banks than you've had hot dinners (along a much hoaxier Hoax Coast than the MP will ever be).

Nothing to see here.. move along.

Haha!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:42pm

What excuse?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:45pm

"That pumping left wasn't there all the time, so we decided not to surf it".

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:46pm

Just BTW, I'm terrible at irony. So don't take offence anyone, just having a larf.

But, I still would have paddled out.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 7:53pm

Ben I'd sell my grandmother (on my dads side) to surf a pumping left..

Trust me man, its a hoax!

And yeah I know you just havin a laff

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 8:01pm

All lols here. All the action was 100 meters from the screen grabs. Action yes, quality no. RIP that wave.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 28 Apr 2020 at 8:42pm

A mate once took me there to check the surf, mid winter, onshore, 4-5ft, the first two lads to paddle out were ripped 200m, saw schools of salmon amongst the reform and a group of seals swimming really close together. Declined, having done enough of that crazy shit in WA