Craig

Back to the summer standard with smaller winds and dicey winds

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 30th January)

Best Days: Possibly Surf Coast early tomorrow, exposed beaches Saturday morning

Recap

Great waves the past two days with moderate to large pulses of W/SW and SW groundswell along with favourable light offshore winds across all locations ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and next week (Jan 31 – Feb 8)

I hope you made the most of the last couple of days, because the end of the week isn't anywhere near as good.

We'll see plenty of fun sized swell but winds will spoil the party.

Our current groundswell event should continue to ease through tomorrow but some new mid-period W/SW energy is due into the afternoon, easing slowly Friday. This has been generated the last couple of days by a broad and elongated fetch of strong W/SW winds extending from south of WA up towards the Bight.

The Surf Coast should hang around 3ft, with the odd bigger one across magnets all tomorrow, with 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively Friday morning.

One of the fronts linked to this reinforcing swell will move in overnight, bringing moderate to fresh SW winds. The Torquay region may see a period of early W'ly winds, but don't count on it.

Friday will be poor as the swell eases under moderate to fresh S/SE tending SE winds.

Saturday is still looking fun on the beaches and even cleaner than expected on Monday as a dawn E/NE breeze swings N/NE by mid-morning, giving into sea breezes early afternoon.

Size wise the Surf Coast looks small and easing from 2ft, with 3ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula though with a morning high tide.

Sunday will be clean again through the morning but tiny with N-N/NW winds ahead of an approaching front and afternoon SW change.

No major swell is due off this front but it will spoil conditions early next week with a fresh S/SW breeze Monday and small long-range SW groundswell for the afternoon, followed by a better SW groundswell Tuesday but with moderate to fresh and strengthening S'ly winds.

Tuesday's groundswell will be generated by a good polar fetch of initial strong W'ly winds, reaching gale-force when south-southwest of WA, weakening while projecting towards Tasssie on Sunday. The Surf Coast should see 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves, with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with that poor S'ly breeze.

The swell will ease Wednesday with strong E'ly winds as a surface trough deepens to our north-west, cleaner Thursday but with a small peaky mix of easing swells. We'll have another look at this Friday though.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 12:01pm

Can imgur display videos in the comment section on this site?

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 12:03pm

You can from IOS and Android.. https://help.imgur.com/hc/en-us/articles/360003632072-How-to-Upload-Video

With the latest iOS update (7.0) you will find that when you navigate to upload an image, you can now select your videos too!

Once you've selected your video, you will be taken to a post creation page where you can select whether or not to upload your video with sound, and the exact clip of the video (up to 30 seconds) that you want to upload. 

If you wish for your upload to contain sound you will need to unmute it within post creation.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 12:16pm

Excellent. Wanna show the world Portsea at it’s standard finest.

10 meters off shore, the beach is moving rapidly sideways . No water getting out, just left to right. The Portsea Parrallel Sandbars

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 12:17pm

Haha.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 2:42pm

Let me put that in context Craig, tge water has been stagnant for like 9+ months now let alone any sand moving. Water started moving again and it’s straight but into its standard shit.

You have never seen a beach like this before, defying the odds in all the wrong ways. It’s amazing. Shit, but amazing.

I am the bone

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 1:30pm

Yes they don’t want to move has been straight handers for 6 weeks I reckon.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 2:44pm

Sounds like you need a big stormy swell to rip holes in them?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 6:16pm

doesn't do shit

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 30 Jan 2019 at 6:17pm

meanwhile, howling offshore change comes in with that storm

I am the bone