Poor outlook, with possible windows of cleaner conditions next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st January)
Best Days: No good days
Happy New Year! Pumping waves yesterday morning with a slight drop in swell but great conditions across all coasts before afternoon sea breezes kicked in.
Today a strengthening onshore change linked to a surface trough pushing in from the west has created terrible conditions with smaller 2ft leftovers on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
This weekend and next week (Jan 2 – Jan 8)
Unfortunately the current forecast period is really poor with the surface trough that moved across us this morning expected to stall inland over the state through the weekend and nearly all of next week. This will direct persistent and strong E/SE to SE winds through Bass Strait while also blocking our main south-western swell window.
A run of poor small groundswell and weak SE windswell is expected from tomorrow through basically all of next week.
Strengthening SE winds tomorrow will kick up an afternoon increase in SE windswell across the Surf Coast coming in at 3ft or so Sunday through Tuesday with fresh to strong E/SE winds.
With the unpredictability of the axis of the low at this stage, we may see some better mornings of E/NE winds through next week, but it's too hard to nail down which days this will be yet.
The trough is expected to slowly weaken and drift more south-west through the end of the week and this will hopefully see the onshore winds relax, the SE windswell ease and possibly offshore winds back again for Friday.
On Thursday afternoon and Friday an inconsistent long-range SW groundswell is expected, generated by a strong but slow moving polar low through the southern Indian Ocean. Inconsistent 2ft sets are due on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with hopefully those lighter winds, but we'll have another look at this Monday. Happy New Year!