Craig

Poor outlook, with possible windows of cleaner conditions next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st January)

Best Days: No good days

Recap

Happy New Year! Pumping waves yesterday morning with a slight drop in swell but great conditions across all coasts before afternoon sea breezes kicked in.

Today a strengthening onshore change linked to a surface trough pushing in from the west has created terrible conditions with smaller 2ft leftovers on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend and next week (Jan 2 – Jan 8)

Unfortunately the current forecast period is really poor with the surface trough that moved across us this morning expected to stall inland over the state through the weekend and nearly all of next week. This will direct persistent and strong E/SE to SE winds through Bass Strait while also blocking our main south-western swell window.

A run of poor small groundswell and weak SE windswell is expected from tomorrow through basically all of next week.

Strengthening SE winds tomorrow will kick up an afternoon increase in SE windswell across the Surf Coast coming in at 3ft or so Sunday through Tuesday with fresh to strong E/SE winds.

With the unpredictability of the axis of the low at this stage, we may see some better mornings of E/NE winds through next week, but it's too hard to nail down which days this will be yet.

The trough is expected to slowly weaken and drift more south-west through the end of the week and this will hopefully see the onshore winds relax, the SE windswell ease and possibly offshore winds back again for Friday.

On Thursday afternoon and Friday an inconsistent long-range SW groundswell is expected, generated by a strong but slow moving polar low through the southern Indian Ocean. Inconsistent 2ft sets are due on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with hopefully those lighter winds, but we'll have another look at this Monday. Happy New Year!

Comments

Stevepalace's picture
Stevepalace's picture
Stevepalace commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 3:33pm

Ahhhhh onshores... Fresh as a virgin. Cold like my ex wife. Bumpier than sex on a hot sumers night.

Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1 commented Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 1:57pm

Craig the surf forcast for torqauy has it being 4-5ft Sunday and Monday whereas you said 3ft or so is the forcast overlooking the size

Stevepalace's picture
Stevepalace's picture
Stevepalace commented Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 5:59pm

Also in today's forecast for Torquay you basically said forget it. Yesterday you said if very keen otherwise forget it. Today had size albeit a lot of bump but I had a really good day out there today. Just had to sit and pick off the little gems but had some decent rides. I wasn't alone either. Are you trying to keep the summer crowds under control by saying not to bother? Or is your forecast a little out of touch recently.....

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 7:58pm

Or are people extra keen to grovel and pretend that its good ? Summer fun when theres no locals out

Jimmy94's picture
Jimmy94's picture
Jimmy94 commented Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 8:22pm

Yeah I had a great little surf at Winki this morning before the wind came up, it wasn't pumping but there were some nice glassy 4 footers and even a few barrels. The crowd turned up around 8:30 but by that stage the wind was coming up and I'd had enough.

That's the beauty of this time of year, even though its mega crowded, for those of us in the know you can still score little magic sessions like I did this morning. I don't think it's that Craig's forecast has been out of touch lately, its just that he lives in Sydney and doesn't have the local knowledge to pick these sneaky little windows.

Personally, that's just the way I like it!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 10:44am

Glassy 4ft'ers under a fresh onshore SSW wind Saturday morning? I want what ever you're on, haha.

Also I make a point of trying to find those little windows and point them out, that's what makes forecasting so fun, picking out periods of favourable conditons when all other data is pointing to a write-off.

coachPotato's picture
coachPotato's picture
coachPotato commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:30am

I didn't surf Winki on Saturday - I went to a semi secret spot nearby which also had glassy conditions. I wouldn't call it four foot, but I can see how some people would. Maybe if you had more local knowledge you would have told people to go to this spot.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:37am

It's worth pointing out that we don't people to go to "spots". Our forecasts are regionally based.

Here's Bob's Torquay pics from 7:30am. Fits the forecast description and matches the Airey Inlet wind obs pretty well.



coachPotato's picture
coachPotato's picture
coachPotato commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:43am

If you had more local knowledge you would know more spots.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:46am

Yeah sure, I know spots that would of been clean and glassy in that wind, but 4ft... That's what I'm getting at.

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:51am

out of interest, would you add in your forecasts, recommended spots within the regions ? Or Is that bad karma.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:53am

See my post below. No, we don't mention specific spots.

Karl_'s picture
Karl_'s picture
Karl_ commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:31pm

That makes sense Ben and I think its a good idea but would you consider including cryptic clues for specific spots? That way those in the know, like me, would know where to go but others would be left in the dark.

For instance, if there was going to be a little window at Winki, you could say: "The reefs on the Surf Coast will see small swell and unfavourable winds but if you can find where the winki is popping you will score nice clean 4 foot barrels".

Just an idea...

coachPotato's picture
coachPotato's picture
coachPotato commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:39pm

Or you could look at Magic Seaweed. They seem to have worked out how to predict the conditions at specific spots with amazing accuracy.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:41pm

Ha!

coachPotato's picture
coachPotato's picture
coachPotato commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:52am

If you knew more locals maybe you'd be able to surf the four footers.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 11:51am

CP, Craig and I both know plenty of spots out the wind along that stretch of coast. My point was: we don't mention specific locations in our forecast notes, so they would have never been mentioned regardless.

Brian3228's picture
Brian3228's picture
Brian3228 commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 1:21pm

How's that one pitting at Sparrows? Wish I didn't have to work today or I'd be out there getting spat out of those ones. Where is everyone???? yewww!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 8:35pm

Winds were 15kts gusting 25kts at Aireys Inlet all Friday night and Saturday morning (even stronger at times) so I think Craig's call was fine for today. 

Sure, we sometimes see localised patches of more favourable conditions (though I must admit I am skeptical that there were "nice glassy 4 footers and even a few barrels" anywhere on the Surf Coast this morning) - but getting super specific is a very fine line to tread when issuing a forecast.

And for the record, Craig usually goes into way more detail than any other forecasting service - including the BOM - with regards to local wind patterns, frequently identifying small windows of opportunity that the models certainly don't pick, that often produce a few hours of excellent surf on an otherwise ordinary day of waves.

In today's case I don't think 'local knowledge' was a factor - it was just luck whether your particular beach or reef experienced a period of light winds a the ridge re-orientated across the region.  

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 1:06pm

Fair enough … agree its reasonable (and fortunate) to get a reliable forecast and not spot recommendations. Makes the search better when its unknown.

penmister's picture
penmister's picture
penmister commented Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 12:08am

Get the soft top out...

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:17pm

Why do the Vicco forecast notes always get trolled so much more than the rest of the country?

Fairy Nuff's picture
Fairy Nuff's picture
Fairy Nuff commented Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 2:28pm

It's called sport. Too many crap waves & too much free time. And it isn't going to get better any time soon.