Exposed spots Thursday, average Friday and weekend
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th November)
Best Days: Thursday morning exposed breaks, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Tuesday morning both coasts
Yesterday was terrible with fresh onshore winds hacking into a new SW groundswell leaving no options for a decent wave. This morning though winds were better than expected with variable breezes developing across all locations (not just east of Melbourne) resulting in cleaner and fun 3ft waves across the Surf Coast with solid 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
We should see the SW swell ease through the day as winds tend SE.
This week and weekend (Nov 13 - 16)
The swell will become small into tomorrow, easing from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and a better 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds swing more northerly creating clean conditions across both coasts. Exposed spots across the state will be the go through the morning before weak sea breezes set in.
Our long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell due to fill in Friday is still on track and has been upgraded in size a little, but the dicey wind outlook is looking even worse now.
An early W'ly that was likely on the Surf Coast doesn't look to be a chance any more with a S/SW change moving through right on dawn.
Come Saturday when a reinforcing SW swell is due to keep wave heights up in the medium sized range across the Surf Coast - larger to the east - winds will unfortunately linger from the SE leaving no decent options for a wave.
Sunday looks a little better on the backside of the swell as an approaching front swings winds around to the W/SW, with a morning W/NW'ly due on the Surf Coast. Size wise though we'll only see a small easing 2ft to nearly 3ft wave on the Surf Coast with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Next Monday onwards (Nov 17 onwards)
Fun pulses of W/SW groundswell are due through early next week from a couple of broad but not overly strong frontal systems firing up under the country.
An initial pulse Monday afternoon to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula should be followed up by a second similar increase Tuesday.
Winds should be offshore Monday morning from the W/NW across the Surf Coast ahead of a SW change through the day and then Tuesday looks great with N/NW tending S'ly winds, but we'll have to review this Friday.
Longer term we're looking at some decent swell from Thursday week with a long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell due to be followed up by some better swell into the weekend with favourable winds. More on this in Friday's update though.