Craig

Fun waves most of the week, better east of Melbourne from Thursday

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th Jun)

Best Days: Early Tuesday around Torquay, Wednesday morning, Thursday onwards across both coasts

Recap

A period of lighter winds on Saturday morning created good fun waves around 3ft across the Surf Coast before an onshore change moved through, writing off the surf for the rest of the day. This change persisted into Sunday as a medium to large SW groundswell filled in, with only a selected few locations offering a decent wave.

Today though the Surf Coast has come in with great waves and a clean easing 3-4ft of swell, while the Mornington Peninsula was workable but too big along the beaches and around 6ft+. We should see the swell continue to ease as a fresh W/SW change moves through later this afternoon.

This week (Jun 16 - 20)

This afternoon's change is linked to a broader frontal system pushing into us and with this we should see a small-medium sized increase in short-range W/SW swell tomorrow. Size wise the Surf Coast should offer 2-3ft waves, with larger 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

The Torquay region will offer the best waves with a local and short-lived W/NW breeze, while most other locations are expected to be onshore in the wake of this afternoon's change.

Wednesday is looking a lot nicer under light NW tending variable winds, but the swell will dip quickly so the early will be the best west of Melbourne.

Into Thursday and Friday a couple of good pulses of SW and W/SW groundswell are due and under favourable winds.

The first pulses on Thursday will be a mix of long-range and very inconsistent W/SW groundswell and better SW groundswell. The first has been generated by a vigorous and long-lived frontal progression through the Indian Ocean, starting later last week under South Africa and ending up off WA tomorrow. The better SW groundswell is currently being generated by a healthy polar front to the south-west of the country, with both swells coming in Thursday to offer 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula through the morning.

A slight drop may be seen through the afternoon and winds look great with local offshores due to persist most of the day.

A secondary pulse of long-range W/SW groundswell should keep wave heights up around a similar size to Thursday morning on Friday morning, but with a lot less consistency, so expect very long waits between sets. Winds are expected to remain favourable and generally from the north, favouring both coasts.

This weekend onwards (Jun 16 onwards)

There's nothing too major on the cards for the weekend besides small-moderate and inconsistent levels of background W/SW groundswell.

The Mornington Peninsula should be best Saturday with N'ly tending variable winds, while Sunday will see N/NW winds, favouring the Surf Coast and western end of the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term the models diverge on how a mid-latitude trough and possible low develop as it moves in from the west early next week, so check back Wednesday for an update on this.