From about lunchtime onwards (South Coast) and late afternoon across the Sydney region, we'll be on high alert for the leading edge of a decent long period southerly groundswell.

Severe TC Jasper has been slow moving and intensifying (Category 4 now) over the last 36hrs. It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the NE swell window. That aids confidence in some NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend.

Strong onshore winds will move in tomorrow, with a weak windswell for Sunday. A large, strong groundswell is due next week.

It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the acute N/NE swell window- even though that part of the window tends to be flukey due to interference from reefs and it’s reliance on a perfect track to clear Fraser and the Breaksea Spit. That aids confidence in some steeply angled N/NE-NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend.