Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 9th)

Best Days: Sunday, Monday exposed beaches, Tuesday ahead of the change selected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large S/SW groundswell filling in tomorrow, peaking through the day with light-mod E/SE-SE winds, strengthening from the SE into the PM
• Steadily easing S/SW swell Sun with local offshore winds, tending N/NE to the east and holding until late, tending SE then fresh S/SW to the west
• Small Mon, with a late pulse of small-mod sized S/SW groundswell with strengthening N/NE winds to the east, tending S/SW to the west into the PM
• Easing swell Tue with strong N winds, shifting S/SW mid-late PM
• Strong SW winds with a building windswell Wed
• Moderate sized, mid-period SW swell Thu with S/SE wind, easing Fri with similar winds

Recap

Small, bumpy waves across the Surf Coast yesterday, doable to the east and especially Phillip Island, average across all locations today and smaller.

This weekend and next week (Feb 12 - 16)

Looking at the weekend ahead and our large spike of S/SW groundswell due tomorrow is still on track, with a strong polar low firing up to the south-west of Tasmania yesterday.

A great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds have been projected through our southern swell window, with the low now slowly weakening while pushing east, out of our swell window today.

The end result will be a large, long-period S/SW groundswell with a strong swell front, arriving tomorrow morning and rapidly kicking to 8ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 8-10ft to the west.

Winds are funky though and not ideal, light to moderate from the E/SE-SE during the morning, becoming strong from the SE into the afternoon as a surface trough drifts in from the east. Winds may tend more E/SE across locations to the east through the afternoon but options will be limited with the swell.

A steady drop in energy is due Sunday thanks to the low moving out of our swell window today, with easing sets from 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets, down to 2-3ft during the day, 5-6ft to the east early, down to 3-4ft.

Winds will be much better and locally offshore Sunday morning, N/NW on the Surf Coast and N/NE to the east, likely holding all day over that way while giving into a SE tending S/SW change to the west through the afternoon. This change looks to reach the peninsula into the evening.

Regardless, get a couple if not three surfs in before mid-late afternoon.

Monday will be clean again but with small 1-2ft leftovers on the Surf Coast, 2ft+ to the east under a strengthening N/NE breeze. Winds look to play out similar so Sunday into the afternoon, remaining mostly clean to the east all day. Later in the afternoon, a new pulse of mid-period S/SW swell is still expected but a peak in energy is due Tuesday.

The source of this swell is a fetch strong W/NW-NW winds, unfavourably aimed in our swell window.

The Surf Coast looks to come in around 2ft (2-3ft magnets late Monday and Tuesday morning), 3-4ft to the east. Conditions are still looking tricky with strong N winds on Tuesday, giving into a mid-late afternoon strong S/SW change, persisting from the SW Wednesday.

The change will attached to a broad but weak frontal system, bringing a moderate sized pulse of mid-period SW swell for Thursday.

At this stage the Surf Coast looks to be a weak 3-4ft with 6ft surf to the east but with S/SE winds. Easing surf with similar winds is due Friday, improving again for the beaches next weekend. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!