James KC

Small E swell for next few days

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 9th June)

Best Days: Thursday/Friday

Outlook (tl;dr)

  • Thursday/Friday small E swell
  • Larger S/SE swell for the Far South Coast in the 3-5ft range for Thursday/Friday 
  • For Sydney and surrounds it is looking to remain in that 1-2ft range with the occasional 2ft+ wave
  • Small S swell for Sunday into the start of new as the low moves away
  • E swell with infeed of winds and E trade swell setup (although better aimed for N NSW and SE QLD)

Recap

Tiny bumpy waves yesterday in the 1-1.5ft range. N winds meandered NE and back to the NW.

Today waves are up around the 1-2ft range out of the NE. Conditions are clean with gusty W/NW winds.

The rest of this week 

A cut off low over the south east of the nation has brought an end to the run of swell we’ve had for most of the year. Things are only looking up from here though as we have a new E swell set to arrive tomorrow mixing in with this little NE swell, there should be small but fun waves on offer. 

The E swell was generated earlier in the week with E winds along the west coast of the North Island directed by a low. The travel time from NZ to the east coast is roughly 2 days depending on the strength of winds so I’d expect to see this E swell arrive by the morning tomorrow. 

The weak NE swell will be hanging in there too as NE winds continue to filter in ahead of a trough associated with the cut off low and cold pool. I’d expect waves to be in the 2ft+ range

On the cut off low and associated cold pool tomorrow will be noticeably cooler. A few degrees colder than today and with a bit of rain, could be a good idea to get a warmer wetty ready if you’re heading out for the early. 

The low will begin moving offshore slowly throughout the day on Thursday and be off the coast for Friday. This means winds will be a little variable as the centre of the low moves over the Hunter/Sydney/Illawarra region. 

Thursday will have NW winds for most of the day but the South Coast will see more E/SE winds. Friday will see winds start out of the W but tend more SW as the day goes on.

Winds on the southeastern flank of the low aren’t looking as good for waves on the South Coast either. I had 4-6ft waves out of the E/SE in the last update but based on the most recent model runs I’d be surprised to see that now. Winds around the low aren’t as well aimed now so while the wind strength is still there around the southeastern flank of the low most of it looks to miss NSW. I’d expect the Far South Coast to see the waves in the 3-5ft range late on Thursday and into the middle of Friday with it mainly looking like an E swell. It will be confined to the Far South Coast with only 3ft waves for the South Coast and only 2ft and under for the Illawarra and Sydney.

The weekend and ahead

The E swell for the Far South Coast will basically disappear by Saturday as the entire S NSW region relies on the distant E/SE swell lingering in that 2ft range. 

Winds on Saturday will be strong and W/NW around the northern flank of the low keeping things clean but without much swell to go with it. 

A weak S swell will fill in on Sunday as a small fetch of S winds on the western flank of the low are directed along our coast. Again it’s nothing of substance but it’ll combine with the leftover E swell and prevent it from being flat. 

An infeed of E/NE winds out in the Tasman and to the north of NZ with an E trade swell setup, both giving us some hope for a new swell later in the week. At the moment it is looking like it is a bit poorly aimed, it’s looking better aligned for N NSW and SE QLD this time, so only expect a fraction of the waves received further north.

Winds are looking light and variable for most of next week so not a lot of other prospects for swell. On the flip side even if we get small waves conditions should be nice. 

Tune in on Friday for an update.

Comments

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Wednesday, 9 Jun 2021 at 4:19pm

Well we had a great run now I can catch up with some work and in about
a week I will be whinging like a staving cat.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 8:07am

Misty Maroubra High.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 9:57am
MrBungle's picture
MrBungle's picture
MrBungle Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 10:39am

Fun 3-4ft peaks around the illawarra today. Couldn't feel my fingers in the car park though.

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 5:59pm

Maybe it’s just confirmation bias, but why do the Friday notes always come out so late compared to the Monday / Wednesday notes? Trying to make some final board decisions for a weekend trip!

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 6:03pm

Notes on Monday were emailed at 3pm then Wednesday at 4:45pm. After 6pm on Friday and no Notes yet.

Feel like it’s a consistent pattern. Any chance we can get the Friday Notes a little earlier?